Α European crisis or a crisis of the Euro
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Transcript of Α European crisis or a crisis of the Euro
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7/31/2019 European crisis or a crisis of the Euro
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Is it a European crisis or a crisis of the Euro?
By Fotis Fitsilis*
The Euro is the most powerful European symbol. Its failure would shake the faith of
Europeans in the basic idea that lies behind the European Union. If the Eurozone
breaks apart, the project of the European Union, which took decades of political
efforts and sacrifices to reach todays magnitude, will go many years back.
Judging by the initial appeal of Greece, Ireland, Portugal (and later Spain and Italy)
for a support mechanism for the Euro, it is obvious that things have become very
serious for the Eurozone. If along the way some other country needs support, it is
doubtful that the current support mechanism will be able to correspond, without
affecting the strong economies of Central Europe, France and Germany. Let us
examine briefly how we got here.
The debt crisis we are experiencing was primarily created by what economists call
financial leverage. According to a simple definition, the financial leverage is a process
of utilizing borrowed money to multiply gain. It is also about excessive borrowing,
mainly on the part of the banks. The loans that initially aimed at creating growth,
were given unsparingly to businesses and consumers, creating distorted conditions
in markets such as housing, stocks, bonds etc, situations that are often referred to as
"bubbles".
The leverage procedures are not always harmless. When a company uses greatleverage in funds, it may have significant profits, when markets move upwards. On
the other hand, it is particularly vulnerable even to small market fluctuations. It is
important to mention that Lehmann Brothers displayed on its balance sheet a
leverage factor of about 31! They utilized funds 31 times bigger than they really had!
Greece still suffers from the shocks of the global economic downturn from 2007 and
on. The Greek economy is mainly a service economy, with chronic structural
problems and a permanently negative trade balance. The accumulated deficits
gradually led to a large public debt, unable to be served by the powers of the Greek
economy alone.
When 50 years ago, the Canadian economist Robert Mundell published his work on
optimum currency areas, he could not have imagined that his theory will play an
important role in the formation of the Eurozone. As basic conditions for the proper
operation of the currency areas Mundell named the following:
- Freedom of capital movement and
- Freedom of movement for workers within the single economic space.
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To these two the former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl has added a third. The
need for political, and hence economic, integration, which, unlike the first two,
never became reality.
To compensate the lack of a general economic policy on a European level, the
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was created. The SGP is a political agreement that
lays out the rules for the budgetary discipline of the Member States of the European
Union. According to the SGP Member States must keep their public deficits under a
3% GDP to deficit ratio. Until now, this rule has been violated almost 100 times by
everybody in the European Union and this with almost no consequences. The
inability for common coordinated action of the Member States magnified the effects
of the economic crisis driving the Eurozone to a breaking point.
Such economic practices mainly affected weaker Member States just like Greece.
After the outbreak of the crisis in 2007 it was increasingly difficult for Greece toborrow money from the international capital markets on affordable terms (level of
interest rates). This led to a signing of a Memorandum between Greece and its
lenders, which is basically an agreement of strict economic and financial policies in
return of cheap loans. Following the signing of the Memorandum in 2010 there
were three possibilities for the Greek economy.
A. The Memorandum becomes a success
In this case, in accordance with the provisions of the Memorandum, from 2013onwards, Greece should come out of the recession, with its deficits to zero and a
regenerated economy. The country would come back to the growth track.
Unfortunately, the policy mix was poorly balanced, unsuitable for the purpose and
was entirely rejected by the citizens. A second Memorandum tried unsuccessfully to
correct things and a third is in the planning.
B. The Memorandum fails and Europe seeks a central solution
The chronic structural problems in the countries of Southern Europe produce deficits
that lead to large public depts. It has become obvious that the accumulation of debts
cannot be continued for an infinite time. If the targets of the above-mentioned
Memorandum for Greece are not met (something that is evidently true at the
moment) European leaders will be forced to seek a comprehensive solution to the
problem. The founding of an independent European Monetary Fund (the European
equivalent of the IMF) and the creation of European bonds, so called Euro-bonds,
may be part of the solution. Only a comprehensive restructuring of the European
economies will lead to a long-term stability in the Eurozone.
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C. The Memorandum fails and the European Union cannot offer a central solution
It is an ominous prospect. With no major reforms economic and social indicators in
Greece will hit the bottom. If additional funds cannot be raised from the
international capital markets, an exit from the European currency seems inevitable.
The consequences will be severe, not only for Greece but for all countries in the
Eurozone.
There are politicians and analysts that foresee a turbulent future for Greece. They
are virtually betting on an unstructured Greek default. But nothing should be
taken for granted unless it happens. We should not forget that the decisions
concerning the future of the Greek and European economy are not purely economic.
These are primarily political decisions. They are decisions that will determine the
future of the entire European Union for decades to come.
SOURCES
- The Economist Online, "They're bust. Admit it.", 31.3.2011,
http://www.economist.com/node/18485985
- Michael Sauga, The Fundamental Problem with Efforts to Save the Euro,
Spiegel Online, 30.3.2011,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/castles-in-the-sky-the-
fundamental-problem-with-efforts-to-save-the-euro-a-753509.html
- Robert Peston, Markets call time on Iceland, BBC News, 4.10.2008,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/creditors_
call_time_on_iceland.html
- "Financial leverage", Wikipedia,http://en.wikipedia.org
*Fotis Fitsilis is an electrical engineer (PhD) and an economist. He is the Head of the
Department for Scientific Monitoring and Reporting in the Hellenic Parliament. This
is an updated English version of an article that was posted on 17 April 2011 in the
Neos Agon newspaper ofKarditsa, Greece.
http://www.economist.com/node/18485985http://www.economist.com/node/18485985http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/castles-in-the-sky-the-fundamental-problem-with-efforts-to-save-the-euro-a-753509.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/castles-in-the-sky-the-fundamental-problem-with-efforts-to-save-the-euro-a-753509.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/castles-in-the-sky-the-fundamental-problem-with-efforts-to-save-the-euro-a-753509.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/creditors_call_time_on_iceland.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/creditors_call_time_on_iceland.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/creditors_call_time_on_iceland.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/creditors_call_time_on_iceland.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/creditors_call_time_on_iceland.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/castles-in-the-sky-the-fundamental-problem-with-efforts-to-save-the-euro-a-753509.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/castles-in-the-sky-the-fundamental-problem-with-efforts-to-save-the-euro-a-753509.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/node/18485985