Geostrategy_07

2 3

, ..

, ..

,

, , ..

,

. 1996, 1998. . 6 . - , . - . : , . , , , -, , . , , , . - , . : Defensor Pacis () , - , , . : . , .

2 3

T 7 - 2005

: 17, 106 80 , .: 210-36 32 971 / Fax: 210-36 32 634

Website: www.iaa.gr - E-mail: [email protected]

:

,

...

:

:- ,

, ,

,

:

: ,

:

- :

- : ()

: . , 10, .: 210-36 07 876, Fax: 210-36 38 489

- .

- , (.2121/1993).

, ...

5

. 17

& . 45

69

.. , .., 9 , . . 11

Martin Packard: , 91

6 7

135

&

. - 117

-1 99

143

179

6 7

195

219

& 241

9

, ..

H 7 2005 , , , . , , , , , .

, , . , , , , , , , , , .

, 1, . , , , , ,

11

2, .

, , , .

, , , , , , , , .

- , , .

, , (RMA).

/ , .

1 NY Times, Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt, 5-7-2005, Pentagon weighs strategy change to deter terror.

2 13 2005, 1756 13.190, - 30.000. 212. (www.antiwar.com/casualties/ )

10

11

, . .

, , - - .

, , .

, , .. , . . . , .

, , ( , [RSF], [AGJPB] [CBAI]) , .

12 13

, , .

, , , Info-Turk.

, , , , . 6 , 22 , , .

, 2 , 301/2 ( 159/1 ).

, , , ( ), , , .

13 2005.

27 2002 , . , . , Info-Turk Sun Workshops (Ateliers du Soleil) , .

12 13

, , (Turkiyede ve Avrupada Yazin), 30 . .

, , 60 . , .

, , . , , . 80, 90, 2000.

, 69 , 9 1952 . Ege Gunesi, Sabah Postasi, Milliyet Oncu Gese Postasi Sosyal Adalet , Aksam (1964-66) Ant (1967-71).

, , 50 Ant. 300 , 1971.

1974, Info-Turk, , http://.info-turk.be. Sun (Atelier du Soleil): http://www.ateliersdusoleil.be.

14 15

, 200 , 1982, . 10 , .

, , (TGC), (AGJPB), (CBAI), (LDDH) (MRAX).

, : (1965, ), , (1966, ), , (1972, ), , (1973, ), , (1983, ), , (1984, ), , (1986, ), , (1988, ).

, 28 2003, . , .

, (RSF) . , , , RSF, .

, (AGJPB), ,

14 15

. .

(CBAI) , , , CBAI, , , .

. 23 2003 : . , , . , . .

. , .

, , . . o . .

17

. / .

.

, , , , . , , , , , , , , , .

18

.

.

19

11 2001: . 2.996.

. . , . :

, .1

2:

, , .

:

, - .

18

.

.

19

, D. Rumsfeld (16.10.2001):

, , . , , .

3:

, , , , , , , , , , .

4:

, , .

11 2004: , 191 1.800 .

20

.

.

21

, , / :

1. , :

( , , , )

( , ,

... ) (

: / ).

.

2. , :

(-).

20

.

.

21

3. , :

( , , ..)

.

4. , :

( )

(.. )

- :o / o , ,

(

) o (..

)o ( :

).

5. , :

/

( )

(soft targets).

6. :

, ,

22

.

.

23

, , ..

( ).

20 1995: , 12 6000

7. , :

, , , , ,

, : n , n

n .

8. , :

( ).

22

.

.

23

9. , , :

n n /

n

n n n .

, , :

, , , , . , / .

24

.

.

25

.

(integration). , - - , , , (), .

, , , , - - . , , .

, , , , , .

, ( . ), . , , , . . , , - - , /

, , ,

24

.

.

25

, ( , ...). , , , , .

.

( ) . , , . , , / . , , . Jihad ( , ), . Jihad :

i) ,

ii) ,

26

.

.

27

iii) (Umma), (Dar al Islam) (Dar al-Harb), .

-. Umma, . , ! , , .

, , , , - Jihad , , , Umma, , . , , , ... , .

22 Reem Raiyshi 14 2004 Erez , .

26

.

.

27

.

, , , , , , .

1. - / - , ( , , , , , , , ). , , .

1.1. , , , , , . , , - , , , . , , -, . , .

1.2. , , , , - . , , . , , , , () () . , ...

28

.

.

29

, . , , , ... , .

1.3 , , :

i)

ii)

iii) : i) ii) . ,

, , .

1.4. . , ,

.

28

.

.

29

( ) , (.. ). . , , Sharia ( ). willayiat al faqih ( ) . , . , / , , , (, , ...) - , , (.. . ). , , - . - , , ( ), .

. :

1.

, , , . . , , . . , . , , . .

30

.

.

31

19 , , 11 2001.

2.

. - , , , . , ... .

30

.

.

31

3.

3.1. , . , , . , , .

3.2. , . .. (!) , , :

i)

ii) iii) ,

iv) v) vi) vii) ,

viii) ix) x) xi) ( ) xii) Mortezza (

A) xiii) ( ).

4.

:

) . , , .

32

.

.

33

) , , - , - . .

) , , Kleenex . , , , , .

.

1. (nuclear terrorism) - (Bio-terrorism) , , , - , - - , .

2. - , , , . , ,

32

.

.

33

, , . . , , ...

3. - (cyber-terrorism), , , , , . : , . , , , - .

.

, , , , .5 , , , , , , , .

. , - - . , , , , , , , .

34

.

.

35

3 2004: , . : 326 600 .

1.

, , . . , , , , , , ( , ) , , , .

2.

, -, - , , - 11

34

.

.

35

, , , . , :

9 2005. . .

2.1.

. , , . - . . (, , , . ). . (-, semi-democratic), - ,

36

.

.

37

, . , , .. , , -.

2.2.

, , , , 20, - , . , , , , , , , . , . (). , , . , , , . . , .

(3) :

/ : ,

/ : , . , , , , , .

, .. , .

36

.

.

37

11 2001: 77 .

, : , . , , .

, . , , . , . , , , ,

38

.

.

39

, .

, . , , . , , , , . , , , .

2.3.

25% , . , , ( , , , ) , ( ). , , , / . , , -- .

2.4

/ : , , . , , (, ) . ,

, .

38

.

.

39

. , , , . , , , , .

2015, 32%.

, , , . , , . , , , , , . .

40

.

.

41

, , , . , , , , .

, . , . , , , .

, , , , . .

:

40

.

.

41

. ! () .

, , . , , . , , , , , , , .

, , , . - .

, , , , , . , .

, , , , - . , , , (ethnic) - (multiethnic state-factors),

42

.

.

43

, (.. - ), , , .

, , . , , , , , . , .

* : 1) . ,

/ 2) . ,

.

42

.

.

43

1. , -, 2005.

2. JCS Pub 1.02: The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence against people or property to coerce or intimidate governments or societies, often to achieve political, reli-gious, or ideological objectives.

3. Ligue des tats arabes. Convention arabe pour la lutte contre le terrorisme. 22 avril 1998: Tout acte de violence ou menace de violence, quels quen soient les causes et les buts, commis pour mettre en uvre un projet criminel individuel ou collectif et visant semer la terreur parmi les gens ou les effrayer en leur portant atteinte ou en mettant en pril leur vie, leur libert ou leur scurit ou porter atteinte lenvironnement, lun des services publics, aux biens publics ou privs, ou les occuper ou sen emparer, ou encore mettre en danger lune des ressources nationales.

4. www.mfa.gov.tr/mfa/foreignpolicy/mainissues/terrorism

5. . : Bassford, M., Mabey, N. (2005). (UK) Prime Ministers Strategy Unit (PMSU) Background Paper Countries at Risk of Instability: Future Risks of Instability PMSU (2005). Investing in Prevention. An International Strategy to Manage Risks of Instability and Improve Crisis Response.

45

/ .

.

. , , , . ,

46

&

47

&

, .

, .

, , . , , , , , , , .

, 21 . , , , , , , . , . , .

46

&

47

&

, , . , , , .1

, .

, , , . , , , , . . ., , .

, .

48

&

49

&

, fora, . , .2 , , , 3, .

,

, . 90, , , , , . 4 11 , .

48

&

49

&

, , , , . , , , , , . , , , , , . , , modus vivendi .

, , , 25 1991, . , , . , - , , 1991, sui generis modus vivendi , , . , - , , .

10-12.01.05

50

&

51

&

, , . , , 10- 12 2005, , . , 10 2004, . , . 5 , .. , .

. . , (7-9/12/2004) , , , 12 .

, .

50

&

51

&

, . - , , - - . , , , , , . 6

, , 7, , , . , . , , , , . , - , .

, . , , , . , , , , . , , , , .8

, , , . , ,

52

&

53

&

, -. 100 . , . 9

, , , , . , , . , - . 10

.

52

&

53

&

, , , , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , , , , , , , .

, , , . , , , 70% . , , , , , , , .11 , . , , . 12

, , ,

54

&

55

&

, (Blue Stream), , 13. , , 2003 10 . 15 . .14 , , , , , .15 , , , .16 , .

, , , . . 17, , 18, . , , , , .19 , , , , .20 , , .

, , , , , , 72% .21 , Blue Stream, 3

, , , 72% .

54

&

55

&

, 12% .22 , 50%, 200523, . 24 , , , , . , , - , , , , .25

. -50, Be-200 , BTR-90 - 40 () .26

BTR-90, .

, 350 . .

56

&

57

&

, know-how, , , , 2004 , , , . 27

, ,

. , , , , .28 , - .

-50, .

, , , . , ,

56

&

57

&

. , , , , . , .29 , , .

12 , , , , , , -, . , , , .30 , -, , , , .31 , , , , . , , , Black Sea Force.32

, , , . , , , . , , , 33 , .34

58

&

59

&

, , .35

, , . , , , 24 2005.36 , , , , , . , , , , , , . , ,

58

&

59

&

.37

, . , , , . , , , , . , . 38

, , . . , , .

. .

, ,

60

&

61

&

. , . , , . , 39, .

. , . , 1973 , , , , . .

, , , , . , vice versa. , .40 , , , , .

, , . , , , , , , .41

.

60

&

61

&

, , , . , , , , , , . , , .42

- -.

, , , -50 , . ,

62

&

63

&

. 43 , , - -, . 44

, , , , . -. , , , .

17 33 2002, 1,6 , , . 2010, 3 5 , , .

,

62

&

63

&

, , , , . . sui generis , , , .

, , , , , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , ( ) . , , , , .45

, , , , , , , . , , . , , , ,

64

&

65

&

. , , .46

, , O (Integration Russian Style). , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . , , .47 , , .48

.

64

&

65

&

. , , . , , . , , . , , , , , .49

5 , , , . , , , - , , , , , , , . 50 , , . , , , , , , .

66

&

67

&

1 ., : -, .31, . , 2001.

2 , , , 2005.

3 . 29/05/2002.

4 1999.

5 www.ng.ru/printed/world/2004-12-10/6_putin.html, 13/01/2005,

6 , Russia Today, 3, 2004, , . 2,

7 . 9- 10 2004, .

8 , - Russia Today, 5, 2005, , . 3,

9 : - , Russia Today, 2, 2004, -, . 8-11.

10 ., - , , 24 2004.

11 ., 1960- 1991, - ., ., (), , , , , .., 1993, .275.

12 ., 1960- 1991, - ., ., (), , , , , .., 1993, .275.

13 www.edc.spb.ru/conf2002/studenikina.htm, 22/12/2003.

14 www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.

15 : - , Russia Today, 2, 2004, -, . 8-11.


17 2004 1,5 , www.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=61&msg_id.html, 12/01/2005.

18 2004 1 , - www.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=61&msg_id.html, 12/01/2005.

19 www.izvestia.ru/economic/974412_print, 12/01/2005.

20 www.ng.ru/printed/economics/2005-01-13/3_ankara.html, 13/01/2005.

21 www.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=61&msg_id.html, 12/01/2005.

22 2 -, 16 .

66

&

67

&

23 www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005.

24 , - charter, .



27 www.izvestia.ru/politics/800196_print, 12/01/2005.


29 , .


31 www.grani.ru/Politics/World/m.70646.html, 12/01/2005.


33 .

34 www.grani.ru/Politics/World/m.70646.html, 12/01/2005.





39 1972 - , .

40 ., 1960- 1991, - ., ., (), , , , , .., 1993, .266.

41 , 4 , - 60 , 9 2005, www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.



44 : - , Russia Today, 2, 2004, -, . 8-11.


46 : , - Russia Today, 2005, , . 11.


48 : , - Russia Today, 2005, , . 11- 12.

68

&

69

49 www.politcom.ru/2003/zloba3016.php, 23/09/2003, : , Russia Today, 2005, , . 12.


68

&

69

/.

1.

) , 2004, .

) , ( ), .

70

71

) , .

2.

, , .

(1917), , , 1931.

1993, .

, . 80, , , , .

, 1989 1993, ( 1992, 1992,

70

71

1993). , , , .

(peacekeeping forces), . , . . :

- 1992 .

- , , 1992, , () Yeltsin.

- Sochi, , 27 1993. :

i) ,

ii) , , ,

iii)

iv) , .

, , , :

- .

72

73

- , , , , , , , . , 1993, :

i) ,

ii) , ,

iii) .

, , , . , . , , Ingur (. 1 2), . , ... ( U.N. Peacekeeping Operation), 1994, . 940 .. , ( ) .

, :

- , , , ( 180 240 ).

- , 1994 2004, . no war no peace, .

Ingur, .

72

73

1: Ingur.

- , 1999 , - .

- , , , , , , 2004. ... .., , .

- , , 1999 2004, , .

74

75

3.

: , , , , de facto .

, . Raul Khadzhimba , , Sergey Bagapsh, outsider .

Sergey Bagapsh, 12/01/05

Khadzhimba: , Bagapsh 50,08%. , . Ardzinba , ,

74

75

, 6 , . Bagapsh, , . , . BBC, , .

, : . . , , ( ), , .

.

76

77

4.

:

- ( / regional power): ,

- (small power), . , , : .

, Bull, , . (security complex), Buzan, , . , , . , , :

- -

2003 , , , .

4.1.

:

1. , , ( ) (. 1).

, .

76

77

2. , / .

3. , , , , .

4. , ( narcoterrorism) , , .

, :

, (!) .

, - ( ).

, , , , , . , :

- ,

78

79

- , ,

- , , , , , .1

, , , , , .

, , / .

, , , . , , . , , .2

, ( !) , :

- , ( ) , .

, .

78

79

- ( ) , , .

- , , (power over outcome) , .. .

- .

.

- , 1994,

80

81

, , .

- , , 4% (2003) , , , , 1,8% (2003) , 1998-2002 1%.

- , , .

- , , ( ) , Batumi, Gudauta Akhlkalaki , .

, , , , , :

- 1992-93, 70% ( 535.061 1989 145.000 1998), .

- , , .

- , , , ( ) , .

Sergey Bagapsh: , .

80

81

- , - .

- , . , 1997, , , , .

- ,

, - -, - , .

- , , , . Sergey Bagapsh : , !

: 44% , 17% , 16% , 15% , 8%

82

83

- . , . , Sergey Bagapsh, .

, :

- 1992-1993,

- ,

- , ,

- , (Baburin, Zatulin, Primakov, Kirienko) .

, .

4.2. :

. ( 90) , Eduard Shevardnadze. , .

, .

82

83

Eduard Shevardnadze William Cohen 1997 .

2002, Shevardnadze , . :

- , - , .

- , , .

- (21 2003) ..., , USAF.

- , .

84

85

(Shevardnadze) :

- ... , , .

- , , .

.

:

- , , , , , .

- , .

-

84

85

(, , ).

- , .

, , , , :

- , status / , 90.

- , , .3

- , , , , , , , Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, .

Mikheil Saakashvili, 2003, - , , , , ( ). Eduard Shevardnadze, , ( ) , ,

86

87

, , , , look , , , .

2 : Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

5.

, , :

) , ,

) , , ,

) , / /

) , ,

86

87

, , .

, (: ) . , . , (25/11/2004) , Giorgi Baramidze , , , , .

Mikheil Saakashvili Jaap de Hoop Scheffer 7 2004

, :

- , , .

88

89

- dtente, ( ) , , , Shevardnadze / Saakashvili.

, :

- , .

- , , , .

, , , ( ) , , .

88

89

1 3, - , , 27 2004, . 11-12.

2 , , , . - Assesing Russias Decline, RAND Corporation, 2002.

3 - : - , , , (-) , - .

91

Martin Packard 21 . 3 - (- 1964), .

Cyprus: The Search for a solution, (: ), , . , , . ,

92

Martin Packard

93

Martin Packard

. , , , , . , , , . , , (Whitehall) .

, .

O . , , . , , . , , . , , . ,

92

Martin Packard

93

Martin Packard

. , . , realpolitik.

5.

. 1990, , 30 , , , , .

. . . , , - ;

94

Martin Packard

95

Martin Packard

.

- , 1960, . . , . , , () , .

. , 2003, , , ,

94

Martin Packard

95

Martin Packard

. , . , , .

, , . . , , . , , .

, , 2004, . , 5 , , , . , , , - .

, , , . , Whitehall . , . , , 5 , ,

96

Martin Packard

97

Martin Packard

, .

, ,

, , -, , , , . , . , - , , . , , , . , , .

, ( )

96

Martin Packard

97

Martin Packard

. , , , .

, ( , , ), . . , (George Ball) . , , . , : ;. , . , . .

Cyprus: The Search for a solution, (: ), : I.B. Tauris 2005. X +256 ., David Hannay.

99

.

(. 1), , Talia Sasson 2001: (15) (46) . , . 105 , , .

100

-1

101

-1

1

, , .

, . , ( ). , . 8.500 21 4 .

100

-1

101

-1

, (E-1) . 3.500 Maaleh Adumim . 2004 ( ) : Maaleh Adumim, Beitar Illit, Modiin Illit, Alfei Menashe, Geva Binyamin (Adam), Har Gilo, ( ): Kochav Yaakov, Neve Daniel, Efrat, Ariel, Har Adar, Givat Zeev, Nofei Prat, Carmel, Alfei Menashe (Nirit), Kedumim, Elazar, Revava, Oranit, (. 4, 6 9).

4 6 :

( 1967) ( ). , . , .

102

-1

103

-1

Peace Now ( ). , , , . ( ) 2004. Settlement Watch Team ( ) 1990 . , . - .

.

, , ... . . 2004 E-1 Maaleh Adumim, . . . ...

.

102

-1

103

-1

, . , (, ), .

(. 2, 3, 5 7) (. 9). Gush Etzion, Ariel Maaleh Adumim () () .

2 3

&

. , , , 240.000 . , . 1, , (

104

-1

105

-1

-) ( , . 7 9). , ( ).

5 7 :

, , Likud ( Likud) ( - ). E-1 .

: .

104

-1

105

-1

- , .

, . . , - , 2004, .

, , . . , . Ariel Maaleh Adumim (. 9) . , . Maaleh Adumim 8 , Danny Tirza (. 4, 6 8). , . . Adam .

(. 9). , . . . . Maaleh Adumim E-1 .

106

-1

107

-1

. , .

8

, (Abu Mazen) , .

106

-1

107

-1

. .

Saeb Erekat E-1 . , . . Nasser al-Qidwa, 1967 .

9

108

-1

109

-1

.

20 , . : , Yesha ( , ), , Kach, Hill Youth ( ), Gamla will not fall again ( Gamla ), Revava, Shas, National Religious Party ( ), United Torah Judaism ( ).

Knesset ( ) . Gush Katif 100.000 . . ( ), . , . .

. .

i) Kach

- Kach2,

.

108

-1

109

-1

, Baruch Marzel, , . Meir Kahane Kach 1971 1980. Kach . 1984 Kahane (Knesset), 1988 Kach - . 1990 .

Meir Kahane (graffiti). Kahane Chai.

Kahane Kahane Chai ( Tapuah) Kach ( Kiryat Arba). . . 1994 Kach Kahane Chai ( Kahane Binyamin Meir Kahane ) . Kach . ( ) halakha ( ).

110

-1

111

-1

ii) Israeli Hill Youth ( )

Kach ( 7.400). . , 5 . . Noam Federman.

( ). , , . .

.

iii) Gamla will not fall again ( Gamla )

110

-1

111

-1

1 . . , . .

iv) National Religious Party Mafdal ( )

. . , . . .

- , (27.05.05).

v) United Torah Judaism (UTJ)

.

112

-1

113

-1

.

vi) Shas ( Shephardi Torah Guardians)

. , . Shas Ovadia Yossef.

Ovadia Yossef

vii) Revava

, , . Revava Al-Aqsa . Hamas

112

-1

113

-1

. , , .

viii)

, ( 70% 21 ) ( 55.000, 14% 25% . ). Yesha ( , ), . .

:

- , - Gush Emunim ( )3, - Yesha, - , - , - , - .

250.000 , . 4:

i) ( )

ii) ,

iii) iv)

( ). .

, ,

114

-1

115

-1

, - . Yesha .

Yesha Yom Kippur, 6 . , . 1974 , , , . , Kach, .

11.01.04 .

- 5:

1. : , , .

114

-1

115

-1

2. : - . , .

: . ( Yesha), . ( , ). , . , , . Yesha . , , .

/ .

116

-1

117

1 1/6 . 6-8% Ariel. . Ehud Barak Camp David Taba.

2 . Kahane Chai .

3 Gush Emunim (Block [of the] faithful): . - Mafdal - National Religious Party (NRP), . ( ) Neemanei Eretz Yisrael ( Those who are loyal/faithful to the land of Israel/ ).

4 Yehuda Ben Meir, The Disengagement: an ideological crisis, Strategic Assessment, Vol. 7, No.4, March 2005, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University.

5 Ibid.

116

-1

117

. / .

. , , .

.

118

.

119

.

( ), , , .

, , , . , ( -) , (LNG). , .

, , . 80 . , , . 2004, Greenstream , o , . Libyas National Oil Co. ( 7 ). Greenstream, 1 8 .. .

, Gazprom o , , , * **.

, , (LNG),

.

118

.

119

.

(offshore). (IEA), LNG 2030. , LNG 5 .

, LNG -, 30% 7 . ( 11 . ). LNG . 2020, LNG , 50-60 . , (re-gasification): 11 , . 13 , . , , , .

, , , . , , . .

, , , , / . / , . , (.. , . 1, 1, 1).

(Turkish Maritime Pilot Association), 1999 2002 .

120

.

121

.

, . , , .

1 -, 23.05.2005, 2009, 1 . , 1% .

. , , : 140 . 2003, 2003 80 . , , .

, , 2004, tankers 3 ,

120

.

121

.

( ) . , , , .

1 . .

, , -- (BTC) (. 1 1), Azeri, Chirag Gunesli (. 2, 2 2). Azeri, , , BTC .

122

.

123

.

1 --, , .

, , , -.

. , , Transneft BTC. , - [(. 1, 1, 1 3), Azeri State Oil Company] ) . Mikhail Saakashvili , 2004, -!

122

.

123

.

2 .

, .

, - ,

124

.

125

.

BTC, Vladimir Putin , 2004. . , . Kiykey-Ibrikhaba, ( ) Transneft 2004.1 - --, BTC.

2A A, A--.

124

.

125

.

. , , (. 4).

2T , 60 . , M 120 . . 20.

, - .2 , , . 2002, ,

126

.

127

.

: , (consortium) .

2002 Lukoil ( ) . , .

Lukoil 2002 (, Lukoil ). , 2003, Lukoil. .

3O M-T-T , K N M P 90 M (. 4)

126

.

127

.

, : , Lukoil, .3 , .

2003, Lukoil Vagit Alekperov Vladimir Putin. . , Alekperov Transneft, , .

4 .

, 2004, Transneft Kiykey-Ibrikhaba.4 -, Kiykey Ibrikhaba , , . - , . ,

128

.

129

.

, , .

: (.. Transneft) , , , -. , , : 90, Gazprom Yamal-, , , . Gazprom .

Transneft Kiykey-Ibrikhaba, , , -, , BTC.

. , . , Transneft, , .: 62 . 2005. , Omisal ( Druzhba Adria). , -Murmansk (. 5), . Lukoil , , . Murmansk .

, ( Murmansk). , () . -

- , .

128

.

129

.

, , . . , . , BTC , . , - .

5 -Murmansk, , .

, , .5 . , 2004, , . , 6, -. , . , , , .7

,

130

.

131

.

, , . , - .

, , , . , , -Brody.8

, , - , , BTC, . , .

/ .

130

.

131

.

* ..: , , Gazprom 80%

** ..: .. .

1 : - , .

2 , - ( ILF) 23 . , 35 . . 700 . .

3 2003, - . , Paneuropean Oil & Industrial Holding, 100% , 65% . , Petrola Hellas, - Paneuropean Oil & Industrial Holding. - Petrola Hellas 2003. , 35,5% , Paneuropean Oil & Industrial Holding 24,7%, 31,6% , .

4 913 ., 69 . . 913 . . 2003 62 . .. Transneft Kiykey-Ibrikhaba, 100% .

5 , , - FOB (free on board), , , , , . - , , , - , . , - , , , -, .

6 10 . -Vlore Constanza-Omisal -.

7 , - -, Lukoil . , - . , ConocoPhilips, , Lukoil, . Conoco, (Caspian Pipeline Consortium), .

132

.

, Lukoil , -. Yukos, Lukoil ( 2001, Lukoil --). Lukoil - .

8 -Brody 2001, ( - Gdansk Plock). , . , , . , ( ), - . 2004, . , , Gdansk .

132

.

135

, , , (GIS) .

, .

136

137

. fractals

, , . , . , :

. , , ; ; ( )

. ;

1 Mandelbrot fractal

fractals ( fraction dimensional) Mandelbrot, , Mandelbrot, , . . . fractals

136

137

(fractal images), , . ( 1).

Mandelbrot ,

(fractals) , . , (loop) , , . , , , . , , . .

(zoom in),

, . . , . , , ( )

. ( Hausdorff).

FractalsBenoit Mandelbrot.

138

139

. - .

, :

.

,

, ( ). . , .

, , , . .

, , , chaos.

, , . M , . , .

,

.

. . ,

.

138

139

, , , , . , . , . , , , - .

-

, , , , , , . /

140

141

, , , . , .

.

, () , . , , /. , .

2

/, , XOR 2.

,

140

141

, , .

, , , - / .

142

143

1. , , . , 1995

2. The Science of fractal images, M.F.Barnsley-R.L.Denadey-B.B. Mandelbrot-

H.O.Peitgen-D.Saupe-R.F.Voss

3. Fractals Everywhere, Michael Barnsley, 1988

4. Fractals The Pattern of chaos, John Briggs, 1992

5. Applied Cryptography, Bruce Schneier, 1996

6. Kavounidis Choupis, Chaotic Encryption, 1996

7. , . ., 2001

142

143

, / .

.

(1991) , , , - , , , .

144

-

145

-

, Herbert Schumacher, , , .1

, , , , - .

Turgut zal . , zal .2 , , 300 3, , , , , , .4

, , . , Wolfgang G. Lerch, ( ) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.5

144

-

145

-

Almuth Baron (..: ) , ( /) .6 .7

, . , /. , , Duran Khalid8, , , .

, , , , 9, ( Gottfried-Karl Kindermann, Hans Morgenthau - ), , , . .

:

: /; ;

: , , ;

: ;

(): Turkic Republics ;

146

-

147

-

( ): , , , ;

, () - / , , , , , , .

.

1.

, Altai Sajan ( ), Tienschan ( ), Altyn Dagh ( . ) Chingan (. ), . , (. ) ( ) .

:

) ,

,

) , . (1071 ..) - . . , (, ) . (). 1453, .

) , ( )

, .

146

-

147

-

-.

14 19

, ( , , ), . . . (Anadolu: ) (Rumeli: , . ) , .

, , , , : ( - - -) , .10 ,

148

-

149

-

, ( ).

:

, . , , . , . ( Jadid) .11

, Muzaffar al-Din (1860-1885). , : , , ( ) . . (1864) de facto .12

2. /

2.1.

/ , , . Ismael Gasprinskij, (1856-1914) , . , . , ( ) Borzenschky.13

, , (1912-1913) (1914-1918). (, , ) .

. , ,

148

-

149

-

, . , : . , ( ) !14 Ziya Gkalp, Genc Kalemler (7/3/1911): . !

.

2.2. /

. , , : : ,

150

-

151

-

, . .

, . , (, ), , , , , . , .15

. . , .16 19/12/1914 -, () Bronsart von Wagenheim.17 .

: . , . , . , , , . . 18 . 20 .

- ( ), (1908), , ( 1913). (). , 1917, .

150

-

151

-

, 1.500.000 , 2.500.000 .

2.3.

, , , .

, , , . , . , , 1941, ( ): Gotthard Jaschke, (), . , , , , .19

, : -. , , 1908 . Johannes Glasneck

152

-

153

-

, .20 , , .

, .21 , : , , , , . , , .22

, . ,

152

-

153

-

, , . , .23 , . , , , .24

, , . ( ) : , - , . , , , , .

. (

, - 1920), , -, , (, , , ) , , .

- , , , , , (, , ) - . , , , , 1922 .

, , -, , (14/9/1918) . ,

154

-

155

-

1921. , (. , , , ), , , ! 25

.

3. 1941 , 30,

, . , , , .

, 1941.26 1914. , , , (, ) . Woermann , . . ( ) von Hentig , .27

von Hentig :

154

-

155

-

. , ! , Bzkurt ( ) , , . .28 Deutschland ber alles - !

, , , . . , .

: , , , , . (von Weizsaecker, Woermann), , , , () .29

, . , , 30 , , , .

. , Barbarossa ( 1941), .

156

-

157

-

( 1941), . 1942, , (, ) von Papen .31 , , ,

, . , , . .

, 1914, , , - : , , - , , 32 - .

, : , , , , , . : ,

Barbarossa . Frederick Barbarossa .

156

-

157

-

. !33 , , policy makers , 1991, .

, , 1918, . , , , , . , ( ). . ( ) . , .34

, 20/4/1944 . 2/8/1944 . 23 1945 (!) . ( , ): , , , , , -, .

, 1944-47, , , , , - - . , , / , , , , , : , , , , : .35

158

-

159

-

, 1943.

, 1944, - , - : Alp-Arslan Turkes, , Togan, Bzkurt ( ), , Reha Oguz Turkkan, Nihal Atsiz, - Orhun .36

1945, / , ! . , , , 20 , .37

( , ) ,

158

-

159

-

. : 1947, , ( ) ( ) , .38

. /

1.

1.1

. . - , , . , ( ) - .

80, (Ronald Reagan) - Reagan ( , , , , , , ), ( , , administration ).

, CIA Yeni Forum ( ), Sovyet Trkleri ( ).39 , . , ( CIA) Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty.40

160

-

161

-

1.2

(1985). 1990, . , Bilar Simsir, , :

. , . (...) , , . . , , .41

. , , . , Yeni Forum , , , , . , . . Lissy Schmidt : , 1980, , , , , ( ).42

, , cak: . , , Turkes . .43

90, , .

160

-

161

-

1.3

90 . - . : (1991) .

Alparslan Turkes Bolradin 1973.

1990, , , Mehmet Kececiler . , (ANAP), , ( , , , ANAP ).44

, , : . , (know-how) . , . ,

162

-

163

-

, N ( / ). , , 1990, , -.45

(1990) - - , , , , . , 21 20 .46

1.4

30 1991 : 69 ( 1922). . , , , , , 16/12/1991.47

. 9/10/1991 16/12 : , , , . , , , .48 , . R .49

Heinz Kramer, think-tank, , 1992, : , , . , Hikmet Cetin , , , , ,

. .

162

-

163

-

26 5 1992, Suleyman Demirel , , , , 1992.50 41 600 .51

, , , , . 1992 (30-31/10) . , , Turgut zal, .52 , , .53

, , , . , , . - , .

. , , , (opinion leaders) (policy makers), . , , ;

2.

.

2.1.

- 1991 - . ,

164

-

165

-

, , Faruk Sen, / ( , ) Essen. , , Sen: 57 (...), .54

Heinz Kramer , ( ) , 50 . .55 , , Khalid Duran , , .56

. Udo Steinbach . , . . : , . , , ( ). ; (: ) . , Steinbach 57, Turkic Republics. , , L. Schmidt : ;58

: , , . , , , , Duran.59

. .

164

-

165

-

, , . . .

2.2 .

,

, , , . , 1990, . , , : . - . , - . Baker, (...) , , / , ,

166

-

167

-

, , , , .60

, ( , , ) . , Steinbach, , (...). . , , , .61

. . , Duran.62 () .

, , , ( ) , , ( ) - . , , , , , .

, , , , . , , .

.

166

-

167

-

: ( ), ( ) ..

, , . . , , . , , (Augsburg) . , , status , , , , .63

2.3.

, . , : . 1992 Erol Manisali : , (...) , .64

, , 2.000 , Sen.65 , , Regionalmacht, , Lothar Rhl, : , , .66

, , Arnold Hottinger, ( ) , .67 -

168

-

169

-

- L. Schmidt: , , . .68

, Duran 1992: , , .69

3. ;

, - . , , , , .

, - - . .

, , - - ( ) , , , , - , , Vergangenheitsbewltigung.

.

168

-

169

-

, , , .

. Alparslan Turkes, , Bulent Ecevit, / , , .

esut Yilmaz . .

, Mesut Yilmaz Turgut Ozal, , , . . , , Yilmaz, , Taner Akcam. , 1992,

170

-

171

-

( ) 3 Ersinjan.70

, , , ( - - ), . , , , , . , , , .71 , , (Instrumentalisierung der Wasserfrage), 21 .72

, , , , , . , , : , , ( , ) . , , . : , , (: ) , , , , , , .

, . .

.

170

-

171

-

. zal .73 , , - , . , , , . .

21 . , .

172

-

173

-

.

. , , , , .

, , . , , , ( ) , , , .

, , , , . , 1990-93 , Regionalmacht Trkei, , , , .

, , , , . , , .

172

-

173

-

-

1 Schumacher, Herbert, Graue Woelfe nach Samarkand. Ist der pan-trkischer Chauvinismus auf dem Vormarsch?, DRITTE WELT, Maerz/April 1992.

2 EUROPA-ARCIV, Folge 22/1992, Z277, 30-31/10/1992.

3 POLITISCHE BERICHTE, 8/1992, 10/4/1992.

4 .

5 Lerch, Wolfgang Gnter, Eine neue Rolle fr Ankara. Die Trkei versteht sich als die natrliche Fhrungsmacht der Turkvlker Mittelasiens und des Kaukasus, FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG, 18/2/1992.

6 Baron, Almuth, Neuorientierung am Bosporus. Die von Europa enttuschte Trkei sieht ihre Zukunft in der Rolle einer neuer Regionalmacht, FAZ, 3/4/1992.

7 . Lerch, W.G., Pantrkismus oder Europa? Die Trkei steht vor einer neuen Epoche ihrer Geschichte, FAZ, 27/4/1992.

8 Duran, Khalid, Rivalitten in und um Zentralasien, AUSSEN-POLITIK, IV/92.

9 . Steinbach, Udo, Kemalismus oder Fundamentalismus, BLTTER FR DEUTSCHE UND INTERNATIONALE POLITIK, 7/92.

10 , , . 1923-1950, 1992, 15-17, 37-41 174-177.

11 Carrere d Encausse, Helene, Islam and the Russian Empire. Reform and Revolution in Central Asia, Prefaced by M. Rodinson, Translated by Q. Hoare, London 1988, . xiv .

12 . .

13 . , ., , . 548. Davinson, Roderic, Reform in the Ottoman Empire 1856-1876, Princeton 1963, . 231.

14 . Schumacher, H., . .

15 , Fischer, Fritz, Griff nach der Weltmacht, Koenigstein/Ts. 1979.

16 Luxemburg, Rosa, Ausgewhlte Reden und Schriften, Berlin 1951, . 294 ..

17 . Rathmann, L., Stossrichtung Nahost 1914-1918, Berlin 1963, . 65.

: Glasneck, Johannes, Kemal Atatrk und die moderne Tuerkei, Berlin 1971, . 46 ..


19 . Jaeschke, Gotthard, Der Turanismus der Jungtrken, Leipzig 1941, . 12.

20 . Glasneck, J., . ., . 29.

21 . ., . 38.

22 . ., . 36.

174

-

175

-

23 . Dogan, Mehmet, Batililasma ihaneti , - 1976, . 145 .. : , ., . ., . 548.

24 , , - , , , , , , , . Dnme ( - - 17 ) . , . , ..., . 86 .. 474.

25 .. , Carrere d Encausse, H., . ., . 162 .. 181. , , Tuncay, Mete, Turkiye de Sol Akimlar 1908-1925, 1967, . 74 .. - : , ., . ., . 124.


27 . Hentig, (von) W.O., Bis zum Botschafter auch der Bundesrepublik, Bd.III.: Im auswrtigen Dienst whrend des Dritten Reiches, . 196.

28 . Schumacher, H., . . DER SPIEGEL, 14/1992.

29 Barbarossa (1941-43), Hostler, Charles Warren, Trken und Sowiets; die historische Lage und die politische Bedeutung der Trken und der Turkvlker in der heutigen Welt, Frankfurt a.M./Berlin 1960, . 20 34 ..

30 . Dallin, A., Deutsche Herrschaft in Russland 1941-1945, Dsseldorf 1958, . 244.

31 . Glasneck, J., Methoden der deutsch-faschistischen Propaganda-Ttigkeit in der Trkei vor und whrend des Zweiten Weltkrieges, Halle (Saale) 1966.

32 , - , , 9/5/1942, - Dallin, A., . ., . 63 ..

33 . Glasneck, J., . ., . 206.

34 . , ., . .

35 - Kurt Steinhaus (Soziologie der trkischen Revolution, Frankfurt a.M. 1969). ( , , ), - .

( Sevket Sureyya Aydemir, Mete Tuncay ..) . (. .).


37 . .

174

-

175

-

38 , . ., . 340.


40 Radio Free Europe CIA , , Bayerischer Rundfunk, : CIA: Waffe im Kalten Krieg, 6tlg. Dokumentation, 1. Teil Spionnage-Hauptstadt Berlin, 25/7/1993 ( 21.20).

41 Simsir, Bilal N., Turkeys Relations With Central Asian Turkic Republics (1989-1992), : TURKISH REVIEW / QUARTERLY DIGEST, Summer 1992.

42 Schmidt, Lissy, Der Westen muss seine Furcht vor dem Panturkismus vergessen..., Bltter des iz3w, Nr. 180, Maerz/April 1992.

43 OCAK, 3/90. : Schmidt, L., . .

44 . Schmidt, L., . .

45 . .

46 . Simsir, B.N., . .

47 EUROPA-ARCHIV.

48 . Kramer, Heinz, Die Trkei zwischen Europa, Asien und dem Nahen Osten - eine aufstrebende Regionalmacht?, : SDOSTEUROPA MITTEILUNGEN, 1992/Nr.2.

49 . Chimelli, Rudolph, Der Traum von Turan per Satellit, SDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG, 6/5/1992 INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, 24/3/1992.

50 Kramer, H., . .

51 . .

52 . EUROPA-ARCHIV, 30-31/10/1992.

53 . .

54 Sen, Faruk, Am Bosporus ein neues Selbstbewusstsein, : RHEINISCHER MERKUR, 6/3/1992.

55 Kramer, H., . .

56 Duran, K., . .

57 Steinbach, U., Kennen Sie Samarkand?, : DOKUMENT UND ANALYSE, 9/92.

58 Schmidt, L., . . Turk Republics , - .

59 Duran, K., . .

60 Lerch, W.G., Eine neue Rolle fr Ankara, : FAZ, 18/2/1992.

61 Halbach, Uwe, Weltpolitik und Eigenentwicklung in Zentralasien, : AUSSENPOLITIK, IV/92.

62 Duran, K., . .

63 Contact Bulletin , 7, . 3, 1990/91. : Alexandris, Alexis, The Greek Minority of Instanbul and Greek-Turkish Relations 1918-1974, 1983.

176

-

177

-

Lerch, W.G., Zwischen Bedrohung und Anpassung. Das Leben der Minderheiten im Orient ist nicht leichter geworden, : FAZ, 3/2/1993. Anschuetz, Helga, Bald wird niemand mehr in der Sprache Jesu reden, : FAZ, 27/7/1993. : , , , - , , , . 3, 1993.

64 Manisali, Erol, Turkey and the new Turkic Republics, : TURKISH REVIEW / QUARTERLY DIGEST, 1992 ().

65 Sen, F., . .

66 Rhl, Lothar, Die Trkei zwischen Europa und dem Orient, : EUROPA-ARCHIV, Folge 11/1992.

67 Hottinger, Arnold, Zukunftsfragen fuer Zentralasien, : EUROPA-ARCHIV, Folge 14/1992.

68 Schmidt, L., . .

69 Duran, . .

70 SDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG, 9-10/5/92. DIE ZEIT, 23/4/92. FAZ DIE WELT, 18/2/92. : DER SPIEGEL, 20/1993.

71 Hottinger, A., Wasser als Konfliktstoff. Eine Existenzfrage fuer Staaten des Nahen Ostens, : EUROPA-ARCHIV, Folge 6/1992.

72 . Kramer, H., . .

73 , 28/5/1992.

176

-

177

-

Anschtz, Helga, Bald wird niemand mehr in der Sprache Jesu reden,: FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG (FAZ), 27/7/1993.

Baron, Almuth, Neuorientierung am Bosporus. Die von Europa enttuschte Trkei sieht ihre Zukunft in der Rolle einer neuen Regionalmacht, FAZ, 3/4/1992.

Carrere d Encausse, Helene, Islam and the Russian Empire. Reform and Revolution in Central Asia, Prefaced by M. Rodinson, Translated by Q. Hoare, London 1988.

Chimelli, Rudolph, Der Traum von Turan per Satellit, SDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG (SZ), 6/5/1992.

Contact Bulletin, Nr. 3 , winter 1990/91.

Dallin, A., Deutsche Herrschaft in Russland 1941-1945, Dsseldorf 1958.

Davinson, Roderic, Reform in the Ottoman Empire 1856-1876, Princeton 1963.

DER SPIEGEL ( ).

DIE WELT ( ).

DIE ZEIT ( )

Duran, Khalid, Rivalitten in und um Zentralasien, AUSSENPOLITIK, IV/92.

EUROPA-ARCHIV ( ).

Fischer, Fritz, Griff nach der Weltmacht, Koenigstein 1979.

Forsythe, Rosemarie, The Politics of Oil in The Caucasus and Central Asia, Adelphi Paper 300, London 1996.

Glasneck, Johannes, Kemal Atatrk und die moderne Trkei, Berlin 1971.

Halsbach, Uwe, Weltpolitik und Eigenentwicklung in Zentralasien, AUSSENPOLITIK, IV/92.

Hottinger, Arnold, Wasser als Konfliktstoff. Eine Existenzfrage fr Staaten des Nahen Ostens, EUROPA-ARCHIV, Folge 6/1992.

Hottinger, A., Zukunftsfragen fr Zentralasien, EUROPA-ARCHIV, Folge 14/1992.

INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE ( ).

Jaeschke, Gotthard, Der Turanismus der Jungtrken, Leipzig 1941.

Kramer, Heinz, Die Trkei zwischen Europa, Asien und dem Nahen Osten - eine aufstrebende Regionalmacht?, SDOSTEUROPA MITTEILUNGEN, 1992 / Nr. 2.

LE MONDE ( ).

Lerch, Wolfgang Gnter, Eine neue Rolle fr Ankara. Die Trkei versteht sich als die natrliche Fhrungsmacht der Turkvlker Mittelasiens und des Kaukasus, FAZ, 18/2/1992.

Lerch, W.G., Pantrkismus oder Europa? Die Trkei steht vor einer neuen Epoche ihrer Geschichte, FAZ, 27/4/1992.

Lerch, W.G., Zwischen Bedrohung und Anpassung. Das Leben der Minderheiten im Orient ist nicht leichter geworden, FAZ, 3/2/1993.

Luxemburg, Rosa, Ausgewhlte Reden und Schriften, Berlin 1951.

178

-

179

Manisali, Erol, Turkey and the new Turkic Republics, TURKISH REVIEW / QUARTERLY DIGEST, autumn 1992.

NEUE ZRCHER ZEITUNG ( ).

.

POLITISCHE BERICHTE ( ).

Rhl, Lothar, Die Trkei zwischen Europa und dem Orient, EUROPA-ARCHIV, Folge 11/1992.

, , -. 1923-1950, 1992.

, ., , - , , . 3, 1993.

Schmidt, Lissy, Der Westen muss seine Furcht vor dem Panturkismus vergessen..., Bltter des iz3w, Nr. 180, Mrz/April 1992.

Schumacher, Herbert, Graue Wlfe nach Samarkand. Ist der pantrkische Chauvinismus auf dem Vormarsch?, DRITTE WELT, Mrz/April 1992.

Sen, Faruk, Am Bosporus ein neues Selbstbewusstsein, RHEINISCHER MERKUR, 6/3/1992.

Simsir, Bilal N., Turkeys Relations With Central Asian Turkic Republics (1989-1992), TURKISH REVIEW / QUARTERLY DIGEST, Summer 1992.

Steinbach, Udo, Kemalismus oder Fundamentalismus, BLTTER FR DEUTSCHE UND INTERNATIONALE POLITIK, 7/92.

Steinbach, U., Kennen Sie Samarkand?, DOKUMENT UND ANALYSE, 9/92.

Steinhaus, Kurt, Soziologie der trkischen Revolution, Frankfurt a.M. 1969.

SDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG (SZ)

THE ECONOMIST ( ).

178

-

179

, / .

, , , 18 . , , .. , .

180

181

, , , . , , .

() , , , .

,

180

181

, , .

- , , , , , , .1

/ , , , .

, (blgesel g), -2, , - , .

. , . , .

1991, , .3

Turgut zal , - , , , . , (, , , , ), , .

182

183

, ,

, 1990, . , , .

, 1993 , , .

, 1992, , , .

, - Ostpolitik .

182

183

- . , .

( ), :

) / ( , , ),

) ( / , ).

, , - , , .4

, , 2005. , ( rdoan) .

:

o Ahmet Davutolu, 5. , , .6

O Davutolu , : ) , ) , ) .7

184

185

Zhu Rongji 15-19 2002, Blent Ecevit

) , , , .

) , , .

, Davutolu :

: , . () , , . , , , 8.

/ , .

184

185

- - , . , , , , . , Davutolu, , : , , , / 9.

)

Davutolu , () , , , 2001.

, , () , , .10 , .11

Davutolu, : , [.. ] .

:

H , , , --. , , , , . ,

186

187

-, , .12

, . .13

, Davutolu , . , . , , , Basra.14

, , ,

, , . :

- - - (

)

186

187

- (.. , .)

- - (..

) .15

:

, , , .16 , , , .17

, Davutolu . .18

Davutolu: To

Davutolu (stratejik derinlik), .

19, , , , 21 .

Davutolu, - :

i)

H / ( ). -, , .

188

189

/ , , , .

, , , , . .

(, , , ), , , , . .

, , . .

.

ii)

(orafi merkez) :

- (yakn kara havzas), ,

- (yakn deniz havzas) , , , , ,

- (yakn kta havzas), , , , .

, .

Davutolu, Hinterland ,

188

189

. , , Hinterland.20

O , -:

[..: Erdoan Gl ] , , status quo, .21

190

191

1 , . . , . , . , 2002

2 -, . Ahmet Davutolu, Stratejik Derinlik. Trkiyenin Uluslararas Konumu, (18 ) stanbul 2004 [1 2001], 38, 110, 131-2, 169-70, 254, 324-7, 332 ..

3 , . Philip Robins, Turkeys Ostpolitik. Rela-tions with the Central Asian States, D. Menashri (ed.), Asia meets the Middle East, London 1988 (reprint 2002), 130-6.

1990, . , , . , 2004, 311-336, , , . , 2001, 50-64

4 - , . Oktay Tanrsever, Turkey and Russia in Eurasia, L.G. Martin / D. Keridis (eds.), The future of Turkish Foreign Policy, Cambridge MIT Press 2004, 127-55.

Tanrsever , .

1990, . ule Kut, 1990larda Trk D Politikasnn Anahatlar, B. Rubin / K. Kirii (eds.), Gnmzde Trkiyenin D Politikas, stanbul 2002, 7-18. . Meliha Benli Altunk / zlem Tr, Turkey. Challenges of Continuity and Change, London/New York 2005, 88-133

5 Ahmet Davutolu, Stratejik Derinlik. Trkiyenin Uluslararas Konumu [ . ], stanbul 2004 (18 ), 486-500. - Davutolu Beykent . .

6. Davutolu, .., 487, -.

7 . Davutolu, .., 487-9.

8 . Davutolu, .., 488.

9 . Davutolu, .., 489.

10 . Davutolu, .., 490-1.

11 . Davutolu, .., 491.

Davutolu , - , .

12 . Davutolu, .., 492-3.

13 . Davutolu, .., 495.

14 . Davutolu, .., 495-7.

190

191

15 . Davutolu, .., 497-8.

16 . Davutolu, .., 499.

17 . Davutolu, .., 559.

18 . Davutolu, .., 559.

19 , . . , .., 7-42.

. , , . -, 2004, 140-210.

20 . Davutolu, .., 117-8.

21 . Davutolu, .., 118.

195

, , . .

. () . (. 1)

196

-

197

-

1947 . (Si) (MOS), . . , - . .

. .

. , .

( nsec) , , . Volt.

.1 FCG (Magnetic Flux Compression Generator)1

.: , .:

, . , FCG Vircator (Virtual Cathode Oscillator)2

196

-

197

-

1940, , . , FCG 1.000 2.000 $.

. Anders Kallenaas : , , . , 10 GW, 10 . , . 100.000 , .

IRA . . x .

, , , , , . , . . .

, , .

, , .

198

-

199

-

.

IW (information warfare), . IW , , .

, . , C4I, , , .

. 2: ( )

,

198

-

199

-

.

( ), .

. 3.

, . .

, , , .

200

-

201

-

. . . , 3. . , , . - . , .

, (failover) (inoperative) . , .

, . , .

, Faraday, . , , . , .

, .

200

-

201

-

, 4 .

i)

. . , . , . .

ii)

. 50 dB 100 dB . 100 dB 12 3 mm2, 10 5 mm2.

. 4

202

-

203

-

. , , . UPS , . .

0. ( , )

1. ( , , 40 dB ).

2. ( UPS )

3. ( )

, , .

( ) . . .

,

, , .

202

-

203

-

. .

i) .

. ( , , , , ). , . - , .

ii) .

. . .

iii) .

( ) , . . ( ) . .

204

-

205

-

. . . .

i) . . (backup) (redundant).

ii) . .

. , .

. , . . .

, .

.

204

-

205

-

. . , . MIL-STD-188-125.

, , .

, 1950. . , , . .

. 1 MHz. , . . Vircator Virtual Cathode Oscillator . Vircator , , Magnetrons, Klystrons, .. .

, ,

206

-

207

-

.

, . , .

.

. 5 FCG

206

-

207

-

i) Explosively Pumped Flux Compression Generator

FCGs , (.1). FCG . , (high voltage capacitor bank) Marx bank, FCG MHD5 . FCG .

.

ii) Virtual Cathode Oscillator

. 6 Vircator

Vircator ( ) . , . , .

208

-

209

-

(resonant cavit

Geostrategy_07

Documents

Transcript of Geostrategy_07