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2005

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2003, , , 2020. ( 29), 2010, . 1 ( ), 2003 , ( ) , . , . , , . , , , . , , (IRR NPV) , .

ABSTRACTThe proposal decision to amend the Decision No 1692/96/EC on the trans European transport network which was taken in October 2003 aims, through the concentration of the lacking government finances and budgets, to the development and implementation of various actions and transport infrastructure projects up to 2020, in order to accomplish the integration of the transportation system throughout the European territory. In this concept, the Western Railway Axis (project No 29) is included in the priority projects of European interest, and is compatible with the European Transport Policies, as they are expressed in the White Paper. In addition, the project responses to the compulsory need, to integrate the basic terrestrial infrastructures in Greece and complete the missing links in the national railway network. The subject of this Postgraduate Thesis is to examine the feasibility of the first section of the Western Railway Axis (Hgoumenitsa Kalambaka Kozani), using data from the feasibility study and socioeconomic evaluation which was conducted in June 2003 in order to put forward the case of the West Railway Axis to the High Level Group, and through a case study to perform a new socioeconomic evaluation (Cost Benefit Analysis) for the particular section of the project. More specifically, it was attempted to raise the benefits of the rail transportation mode over the road for the above-mentioned section, through an up- date process of the external costs of transport. The assessment of the external costs caused by the road transport, increases the benefits of the evaluated railway project, since the difference between the external costs caused by the two ways of transportation (road and rail) is attributed to the socioeconomic benefit for the railway infrastructure project. In addition, it is examined whether the implementation of Slab track method instead of Ballast track, in selected parts of the project layout, produces benefits both during the construction and operational period of the project lifetime. The objective of this Postgraduate Thesis is to propose a methodological framework during the evaluation of every large-scale railway infrastructure project, which will examine the positively impacts of the implementation of Slab Track method opposite to Ballast track. This approach suggests the application of socioeconomic evaluation indices (IRR and NPV) which will ensure the contribution of innovative track systems and advanced technological solutions, to the reliable valuation and economic feasibility of investments in railway projects.

...: ...: ....: ...: ....: ..: ...: ....: ..: ..: ...: ...: ..: ...: ....: & ...: ....: - ....: ..: ..: .....: & ..: COBA: Cost Benefit Analysis DB: Deutsche Bahn ERS: Embedded Rail Systems IRR: Internal Rate of Return LCC: Life Cycle Cost MCA: Multi Criteria Analysis : New Austrian Tunneling Method NPV: Net Present Value PV: Present Value

Ra Ra: Rail On Rail Off Ro Ro: Roll On Roll Off SMP T: Strategic Management Process - Train SWOT: Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats TEN-T: Trans European Transportation Networks UIC: Union Internationale des Chemins de Fer WTP: Willingness To Pay

1: 1.1 ..........................................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 .....................................................1-2 1.3 ...............................................................1-4 1.4 ........................................................................................1-6

2: 2.1 ......................................................................................2-1 2.1.1 ............................................................................2-3 2.1.2 ..............................................................2-4 2.2 .................................................................................................................2-8 2.2.1 (pay-back period) ..............................................2-8 2.2.2 ...............................................................................2-9 2.2.3 (Discounted Cash Flow) ................................2-9 2.2.4 (Present Value)..............................................................2-12 2.2.5 (Net Present Value) ........................................2-13 2.2.6 (Internal Rate of Return) ..................2-14 2.2.7 - (Cost Benefit Analysis) ..................................................2-15 2.2.8 (Sensitivity Analysis)..................................................................2-18 2.2.9 ( Risk Analysis) ...............................................................................2-19 2.2.10 (Multi Criteria Analysis)....................................................2-20 2.3 ...................................................................2-23 2.3.1 .........................................................2-23 2.3.2 ............2-25 2.3.3 ..............................................................................................2-39

3: 3.1 .................. 3-1

3.2 & .............................................................. 3-4 3.3 1 : - ....................... 3-8 3.3.1 : - .........................................................................................3-8 3.3.2 : - ..............................................................3-9 3.3.3. ............................................................3-10 3.3.4 ........................................................................................3-11 3.4 2 : - .......................................................... 3-12 3.4.1 : - .........................................................................................3-12 3.4.2 / - ........................................................................3-13 3.4.3 ( )..................3-13 3.4.4 ........................................................................................3-15 3.5 & .................... ...................................................................................................................... 3-15 3.5.1 .........................................................................................................................3-15 3.5.2 ...........................................................................................................................3-16 3.6 3 : - ........................................................ 3-16 3.6.1 : ...............................................................................................................................3-17 3.6.2 : - ..........................................................................................3-17 3.6.3 : - ...................................................................................3-17 3.6.4 : - ...................................................................................3-17 3.6.5 ........................................................................................3-18 3.7 ........................................................ 3-18 3.8 ............................................... 3-21 3.9 .................................................................. 3-23 3.10 ............................................................................. 3-29 3.11 ....................................................................................3-31

4: 4.1 ..............................4-1 4.2 ..........................................................4-3 4.2.1 UIC ....4-4 4.2.2 ( ).................4-12

4.3 .....................................................................4-16 4.3.1 ......................................................4-18 4.3.2 ......................4-19 4.3.3 .. - . ............4-22 4.3.4 . ............................................4-24 4.3.5 . .............................4-30 4.3.6 . ......................................................4-33 4.3.7 ......................................................................................................................4-34 4.4 ( IRR NPV)..........................................4-40 4.5 ..............................................................................................................4-43

5: 5.1 .........................................................................................5-1 5.2 .........................................................................................5-3

: EXCEL (spreadsheets) IRR & NPV (2003)

2: 2-1 : ...........................................................................................................................2-12 2-2 : (COBA).....2-18 2-3 : (MCA) ..........2-22

3: 3-1: ..........3-19 3-2: ....................................................................................................3-20 3-3: 2002 ...................................................3-21 3-4: ................3-22 3-5: ..............3-30 3-6: