Msc Thesis

of 72/72
ΕΘΝΙΚΟ ΚΑΙ ΚΑΠΟ∆ΙΣΤΡΙΑΚΟ ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΑΘΗΝΩΝ ΦΥΣΙΚΟ ΤΜΗΜΑ Μ..Ε. ΦΥΣΙΚΗΣ ΠΕΡΙΒΑΛΛΟΝΤΟΣ ΣΥΜΒΟΛΗ ΣΤΗ ΜΕΛΕΤΗ ΤΗΣ ΞΗΡΑΣΙΑΣ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΥΡΥΤΕΡΗ ΠΕΡΙΟΧΗ ΤΟΥ ΑΙΓΑΙΟΥ ΠΕΛΑΓΟΥΣ ΣΠΗΛΙΩΤΟΠΟΥΛΟΣ ΜΑΡΙΟΣ-ΕΥΣΤΑΘΙΟΣ Α.Μ. 94-10 Επιβλέπουσα : Χ. Μιχαλοπούλου ΑΘΗΝΑ 1997
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...

- .. 94-10

: .

1997

1.1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

3 .3 - . 6 ....11 ..12 14

2.

.16

2.1 16 2.2 20

3.

....27

3.1 . 27 3.2 .....55 3.3 R.A.I. B.M.D.I..60

4.

- ....65

....67

2

1. 1.1 , . . . . , , , . , (financial breakdown), Sahel . , , , , . , . . . , . . , . ` . . ,

3

, , , . . , , ( , , , , ...). , , : : , (Da Cunha, 1983). : (Hersfield, 1965) (Wendland , 1990), .(Beran and Rodier, 1985). : , (Da Cunha, 1983). , . , . ( ,1992.). (drought) (aridity). . , .

4

. , . , . , , . . , , , , . , , , ..(Matthai , 1979). . , . , . Palmer (1965), : 1. 0.10 in. 48 . 2. . 3. , , . . 4. . 5. .

5

, . , , (dry spell), Glossary of Meteorology (1959), . . , . . . (Glossary , 1959). 1.2 . , . , , (non event). , , , (Beran and Rodier, 1985). ' , , , , , ... , , , : (P- P )/ P P ( , , ), P 6

. . . (Beran and Rodier, 1985 ), : (P- P )/S, , , , ( ). . ( ), , , . , , , , . , , , . , Sahel , ( ), . , , , ( , 1992;).

.

) Palmer (1965).

7

Palmer (Julian and Fritts, 1968), , . . . : (potential evaportranspiration), (soil recharge), , ( potential run-off), (potential loss) , . , (Palmer, 1965). , : = ET /P ET , , : = R /P R , , , : = Ro /P Ro , , , : = L /P L , ET , R , R L . , P (potential) . (P) , , . 8

, CAFEC (climatically appropriate for existing conditions), , d. o Z (Moisture Anomaly index), , : =kd k . : I=CXI-1 + Z/d, c d Bhalme & Mooley . ( ) (normal) . , , , . ) (Moisture Index). (Palmer, 1965): = 100 (P - P )/S P P S . , . ) B.M.D.I., (Bhalme & Mooley ,1980) (Bhalme & Mooley, 1980),. . ) R.A.I. (Rainfall Anomaly Index). O Rooy (1965) :9

R... = 3[(P- P )/( m - P )] R... =-3[(P- P )/( x - P )] , P , P , m P ( ) x . +3 -3 . ) Foley (1957). , , . . . ) , , ( - , 1992). , : () P P< P () P P - S P -2 S, P - S P P - 2S () P P -2 S, P < P - 2S, S . , (1992), 1.5 , ...

1.3 TA

10

, . , , . . . , , (Cu) (Cb) , . , , , , . , , , , , . , ( ), , . . . , . : ( ), ( ), ( ) , , . . , . , , ,

11

, (, 1992). . . , . . , ( , , ..), . , , . , , (W.M.O. Technical Note 138, 1975).

1.4 , :1. . . ) '. . , . ) , .

12

, . ) , . , (, 1992).2. . , . , . ( ), . 5 7 (Pagney ,1976). 3. . , , . . . , , , , , (, 1992).

13

1.5 . . . , . (1983a, 1983b, 1989,1992), o , : ) () , , . 19.4% 24.2% . ) (Dsec). , ' . ) (Mb). . . , ' o . . . : ) , , , . (Mb).

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) (, 1983,1988,1992). , . , , , , . (, 1983,1988,1992).

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2.

2.1 , , Bhalme & Mooley, (1980). O . , (computing) . Palmer (1965). Bhalme & Mooley Palmer (Oladipo,1985). , , Bhalme & Mooley , , . , Bhalme & Mooley .. (Bhalme & Mooley, 1980), (Oladipo, 1983), (Oladipo,1986), ... 15 , 1. 30 , , , (, ) .

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... . 100 . 46 . , , , . , (Bhalme & Mooley, 1980, Oladipo, 1983, Oladipo,1986). 1 , (...). . , , (, 1981). , , , . , , , . , , . , ( ). , ( -), ' , , .. .

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1. , .

/ . .

40,55 40,51 40,31 39,22 39,04 38,20 37,58 37,54 37,06 36,43 36,25 36,24 36,17 35,29 35,20

24,37 25,55 22,58 22,57 26,36 26,08 23,43 23,44 25,23 24,27 25,26 28,05 23,01 24,07 25,11

5 3 4 27 5 4 107 15 9 183 36 11 167 151 39

30 30 26 23 30 11 100 28 26 30 25 30 30 46 30

18

19

2.2 Bhalme and Mooley (1980), B.M.D.I.(Bhalme &, Mooley Drought Index). Bhalme Mooley, , (), (computing). B.M.D.. : ) . ) (Moisture Index), , . : =100(P - P )/S : P P , S ) , ( ) 15 , . , . , , : . , , '. , ' ... (accumulated values), ( ), , , ( ) . 20

. , ' ( ). : - . , ( ), . , , ' , . (dry spell), . ' , ( ) . , , o . , :

M =+ ,t t =1

k

=1,2,3,....,7

Mt =1

k

t

' (Moisture Index), . : =-67.18 =-60.70. '. , , , (extreme drought). , , , , , . , , 21

(mild) , (moderate), (severe), (extreme) , . , . -4 ( ), Bhalme Mooley . , -4 . , , -4 3 , -3 2 -2 -1 , . 2.1.

1 ACCUMULATED M 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -1 -2 -3

2

3

4

5

6

70

-4 -127,88-188,58 -249,28 -309,98-370,68-431,38-492,08

. 2.1

, : = Mt /(+),t =1 k

, , ( - ), =1, =2,, =7, (Moisture Index), 22

, =1,2,3 4, . : =4 Mt /(+)t =1 k

= Mt /0.25(+), (1)t=1

k

, , , . . , , 7 ( 2.2) =-50, =-100, (), -450 (=7). , (extreme line). , , 2.3 , =-100, , =-200 ( ), . 2.3, ( ) ( -200 =2). , , , ( ) , , . , , , , , , .

23

1 0 Accumulated M -100 -200 -300 -400 -500

2

3

4

5

6

7

-127,88

-188,58

-249,28

-309,98

-370,68

-431,38 450 -492,08

2.2

1 0 Accumulated M -100 -200 -300 -400 -500

2

3

4

5

6

7

-127,88

200-188,58

-249,28

-309,98

-370,68

-431,38

-492,08

2.3

. , , , ' .. , , . , , =1, :1=1/0.25(+), (2)

' =0, 1-0=1=1

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, . , . , , . , : =/d+c-1, (3) d=0.25(+), =--1 c . , , . c. =67.18 =60.70, , . =4 4=-1, (1) Mt=-77.495. =3 3=-1 Mt =-62.32, 4=( M4 - M3 ) = -77.495-(-62.32)=-15.175. (3) , : 0 = - 15.175/31.97 - 1c c = 0.475 , . 4=-3 3=3 =4, Mt =-232.485 =3 ,Mt =-186.96, 4=( M4 - M3 ) = -232.485 - (-186.96) = -45.525 : =/d+c-1 0 = -45.525/31.97 -3c c = -0.475, c. , . , c, : (3), --1 = /d+c-1 = /d + (1+c)-1 = /31.97 + 0.523-1 (4). H (4) , Bhalme & Mooley, (Moisture Index), , .

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, . , ' .M.D.I. , (). , ', , , (flood). O .M.D.I. , , . 2.2 .M.D.I. .

2. - . B.M.D.I. 4 3 3.99 2 2.99 1 1.99 0.99 -0.99 -1 -1.99 -2 -2.99 -3 -3.99 -4

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3. 3.1 Bhalme and Mooley . . , , . , , . Bhalme and Mooley , . , . , , . 3.1 < 0. ( / ). , . =-2 Bhalme & Mooley. =-2 . , -2 ( < -2) . , , (accumulated), - . % -2. ,

27

3.1. (1) < 0, . 67/68 63/64 82/83 85/86 58/59 76/77 74/75 60/61 65/66 69/70 80/81 78/79 61/62 62/63 84/85 1 % 100 92.86 92.86 92.31 90.00 86.67 85.71 84,61 78.57 78.57 73.33 66.67 64.29 64.29 64.29 73/74 56/57 59/60 57/58 66/67 72/73 70/71 68/69 75/76 64/65 71/72 79/80 77/78 81/82 83/84 1 % 61.54 55.56 45.45 44.44 42.86 42.86 42.86 35.71 28.57 21.43 21.43 20.00 13.33 7.14 7.14

. : 1976/77, -2 80 %. 1963/64 -2 79 %. 1967/68 71 %. 1982/83 71 %. 1958/59 70 %. 1974/75 69 %. 1985/86 61 %.

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3.2. % < 0 (1) < -2 (2). 1976/77 1963/64 1967/68 1982/83 1958/59 1974/75 1985/86 2 % ,