ΓΕΩΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ, ΓΕΩΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑ ΚΑΙ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΟΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗ

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Ένας σύγχρονος πολιτικός, οικονομικός και επιχειρηματικός οδηγόςαπό τοResearch Institute for Noopolitical and Geopolitical Studies(www.snorder.org)και τηνR-Techno Private Intelligence Company (www.r-techno.org)Copyright: Νικόλαος Λάος, 2014

Transcript of ΓΕΩΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ, ΓΕΩΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑ ΚΑΙ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΟΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗ

  • 1

    ,

    ,

    Research Institute for Noopolitical and

    Geopolitical Studies

    (www.snorder.org)

    R-Techno Private Intelligence Company

    (www.r-techno.org)

    Copyright: , 2014

  • 2

    1.

    2. ,

    :

    3. -

    4. : CIA Fed

    US Treasury

    5.

    6. -

    :

    7.

    8. :

    9.

    :

    /Fed

    10. ()

  • 3

    11.

    o BRICS

  • 4

    ,

    2013 2014

    (

    )

    R-Techno

    ()

    (Research Institute for Noopolitical and

    Geopolitical Studies).

    , , ,

    ,

    .

    (Friedrich

    Ratzel, 1844-1904).

    Politische Geographie ( Oldenburg,

    1897),

    (Raum)

  • 5

    (Lage)

    .

    (Geopolitik)

    (Rudolf Kjelln, 1864-1922),

    Gothenburg

    19 (. B. Haggman, Rudolf Kjelln:

    Founder of Geopolitics, Center for

    Research on Geopolitics, 1988).

    20 ,

    (Sir Halford John Mackinder, 1861-

    1947), London

    School of Economics (. H. J. Mackinder, The

    Geographical Pivot of History, Geographical

    Journal, 23, 1904, . 421-444).

    , ,

    :

    . ,

    ,

    (heartland)

    (Yangtze)

    . ,

    ,

  • 6

    (the Pivot of World

    History).

    :

    , .

    ,

    .

    , .

    , ,

    : ,

    (Pivot), ,

    ,

    (Outer or Insular

    Crescent), , ,

    (Inner or Marginal Crescent),

    (.

    ). ,

    (

    )

    ,

    .

  • 7

    :

    ,

    (Nicholas Spykman),

    Yale.

    ,

    (Inner or Marginal Crescent),

    (Rimland),

    ( ),

    .

    ,

    ,

  • 8

    ,

    . , ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (Heartland) .

    ,

    , ,

    . ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

  • 9

    :

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 10

    :

    1) (unipolarity):

    .

    ,

    ,

    -

    ,

    ,

    .

    2) (multilateralism):

    (neoliberal)

    (Joseph

    Nye, Jr) (Robert

    Keohane)

    .

  • 11

    (

    ),

    ( ),

    .

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    (Soft Power, New York: Public Affairs,

    2004) :

    -,

    ,

    . , ,

    ,

    ,

    ..

  • 12

    ,

    (hard power)

    (soft power).

    (smart power).

    ,

    ..

    ,

    . , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    , (Gene Sharp),

    (Albert Einstein Institution) ,

    , ,

  • 13

    ,

    , , , ,

    ,

    (sms, Twitter, Facebook ..),

    ,

    ..

    ,

    ,

    ,

    Google

    ,

    (Wael Ghonim).

    2011,

    Google, ,

    Mobile World Congress

    , ,

    Facebook, Twitter

    Internet

    (. The Telegraph, 24

    2012).

  • 14

    Revolution 2.0 (. Houghton

    Mifflin Harcourt, 2012).

    ,

    (unipolarity),

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    (multilateralism),

    ,

    ,

    .

    (

    )

    .

    ( )

  • 15

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    /

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ( , , , ,

    ...).

    .

    , ,

    , ,

    . 13 2013,

    National

    Press Club (),

    (Victoria Nuland),

    , ,

  • 16

    , 1991,

    2013,

    ,

    , .

    (

    ) : (1)

    (

    )

    . ,

    ,

    (

    ),

    . (2) ,

    ,

  • 17

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    , 2013,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 18

    ,

    . ,

    2014,

    , 22

    2014, ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    (3) ( )

    , 13 ,

    (

    )

    . ,

    . ,

    ,

  • 19

    ( ..

    ),

    .

    ,

    ( )

    ,

    ,

    (

    ) ,

    ,

    , ,

    The Voice of Russia, o

    (Scientology),

    .

    2014, 11

    Valdai International Discussion

    Club ( ),

    1990: ,

  • 20

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    .

    ...

    ,

  • 21

    ,

    ( )

    . (

    , . , /)

    ...

    :

    ,

    ...

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ( ) .

    .

  • 22

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    (Alexander

    Dugin),

    (Moscow State

    University), ,

    (unipolarity)

    (multilateralism),

    ,

    (multipolarity)

    ,

  • 23

    .

    (multipolar model)

    -

    (

    1648

    1814)

    ,

    (. A. Dugin,

    , :

    , 2013).

    (polilogue),

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 24

    ,

    , .

    !

    27 2014,

    ...,

    , ,

    , , , :

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ...

    ...

    ,

    ,

    .

    2013...

  • 25

    (

    )

    .

    .

    ...

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

  • 26

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    : (

    ),

    (

    ),

    ( 16

    20 ),

    (

    )

    ( 20

    ),

    .

    ,

    :

    ,

    .

    ,

    (18 ) ,

    ,

  • 27

    (

    ),

    : 1) (

    ), 18

    , 2)

    ( ),

    19

    3) ( ),

    20

    -, (..

    )

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    20 ,

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    1930.

  • 28

    1941-1945

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    - 1939 (

    ),

    ,

    ,

    .

    / 1945.

    , 1945 1991,

    . 1991

    .

    (1945)

    (1991),

    ,

    , 1991, ,

  • 29

    ,

    (George H. W. Bush).

    1991-2014

    : 1)

    ,

    , 2)

    ( ..

    ,

    ,

    )

    ( ..

    ), 3)

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 30

    ,

    ( /

    ), (

    /

    ),

    (

    ),

    (

    )

    (

    ).

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

  • 31

    .

    ,

    20 ,

    ,

    (postmodernity).

    , ..

    (Michel Foucault),

    (Jacques Derrida), (Richard

    Rorty), (Paul Virilio) ..,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ( )

    . , ,

    ,

    , ..

    ()

    ( ),

    , , ,

    (

  • 32

    ) , ,

    . ,

    ,

    , ,

    ( )

    /

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    : 1)

    , ,

    ,

    2) ,

    ,

    , .

  • 33

    , :

    .

    ,

    , :

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    -

    , ,

    ,

    .

  • 34

    (multipolarity),

    ,

    ( ) .

    (geoeconomics).

    , ,

    (Edward Luttwak).

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

  • 35

    .

    -

    .

    ,

    (NAFTA),

    Mercosur,

    , ..

    (economic

    intelligence).

    : ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    (conventional counterintelligence). ,

    . (lobbying),

    ,

  • 36

    .

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    (Jean

    Pichot Duclos),

    , , 1995,

    ( )

    .

    . ,

  • 37

    .

    ,

    , ,

    (.

    M. Imbeault et G. A. Montifroy, Gopolitique et

    Economies: De rivalits conomiques en conflits

    gopolitiques, Montral et Paris: ditions

    Sciences et Culture et Frison-Roche, 1997).

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    . ,

    2008

    .

  • 38

    Fide sed cui vide!

    , Fide

    sed cui vide, : ,

    .

    , R-

    Techno private intelligence company,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    (private intelligence companies),

  • 39

    . ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    Tim Shorrock,

    Spies for Hire ( ),

    45

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 40

    . ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    /

    (Research Institute for Noopolitical and

    Geopolitical Studies),

    think tank

    Sovereign

    Orthodox Christian Order of Saint Nikolaos of

    Myra,

    (..) Igor Kurdin,

    ,

  • 41

    (Saint-Petersburg Submariners and

    Naval Veterans Club).

    ,

    .

    2014

    U.R.L.: www.snorder.org

    E-mail: [email protected]

    : R-Techno,

    P.O. Box 1, Moscow, 109651, Russian

    Federation. el./fax: +7 (495) 7230119

    :

    .

    , 84,

    10680. el./fax: (+30) 210 3641248

  • 42

    1.

    1929,

    ,

    (

    ).

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    1944. ,

  • 43

    , ,

    35 .

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    ().

    25% .

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ( )

    ,

    Federal Reserve ,

    .

  • 44

    - 25

    ,

    (Charles de

    Gaulle). 1960,

    .

    35 .

    .

    ,

    25%

    .

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    35

    ,

  • 45

    ,

    35 . ,

    ,

    (

    )

    .

    ,

    .

    , 1961,

    (

    )

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

  • 46

    , ,

    1971,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . ..

    , 1992,

    (George Soros)

    .

    ,

    ,

    (

    ).

    ,

    ,

    1973.

    400%

  • 47

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ().

    ,

    .

    .

    (Henry

    Kissinger)

    B

    . ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

  • 48

    .

    ,

    1960,

    ,

    .

    .

    . , Federal

    Reserve

    .

    ,

    -

    .

    1985, ,

    Plaza (

    )

    , ,

    , ()

    . ,

    . ,

  • 49

    46

    50

    .

    , ,

    Plaza,

    .

    Plaza

    .

    1985 Plaza

    .

    ,

    ,

    Plaza,

    , , ,

    ( laissez

    faire), . ,

    /

  • 50

    ( 1971) Plaza

    (1985). ,

    /

    ,

    swaps (. . , ,

    : , 2014).

    swaps,

    . swap

    (Forex),

    (

    ).

    swap, , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    (

    ,

    swap,

    ,

    swap,

  • 51

    ),

    swap

    (

    ,

    swap

    )

    swaps.

    swaps,

    : ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    swap.

    swaps

    /.

    swaps,

    ,

  • 52

    ,

    ,

    1990,

    .

    /

    .

    :

    ,

    ;

    .

    ,

    (

    ),

    ,

    (asset)

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

  • 53

    . , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    , 1990

    ,

    ,

  • 54

    . ,

    , 2013, Bloomberg

    Deutsche Bank, ( )

    Deutsche Bank

    ,

    , 55,6

    ,

    () 2,7

    .

    1999, , ,

    ,

    (Financial

    Services Modernization Act). ,

    Gramm-Leach-Bililey,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    GlassSteagall 1933.

    GlassSteagall,

    1933 1991,

    (

  • 55

    )

    (

    ,

    ).

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (futures, options, swaps,

    ..),

    (.. ),

    ,

    .

    ,

    1999,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    , ..

    1999,

  • 56

    ,

    (

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ).

  • 57

    2.

    ,

    :

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    31 2005,

    www.boston.com

  • 58

    (George Walker Bush),

    . 2

    2008,

    http://firstread.nbcnews.com

    (John McCain),

    ,

    .

    16 2004,

    The New Yorker,

    , 3

    2001,

    (Energy Task Force)

    46

    , (Dick Cheney) ,

    ,

    (

    ). ,

    ,

  • 59

    (rogue states),

    ,

    .

    ,

    The New Yorker,

    (Mark

    Medish),

    ,

    (Bill Clinton).

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    14 2004,

    CNN, http://edition.cnn.com,

    , (Paul ONeill),

  • 60

    , 11

    2001.

    (

    ).

    21 2012,

    Huffington Post,

    (John C.K. Daly),

    Oilprice.com,

    TAPI, ,

    , ,

    ,

    , ,

    1995,

    . TAPI,

    33

    ,

    ,

    . TAPI

    ,

    , Central Asia Gas

    Pipeline Ltd,

    Unocal,

  • 61

    Unocal ,

    .

    Unocal ,

    TAPI, BBC, ,

    4 1997.

    , Unocal

    Enron, ,

    2001,

    TAPI. 2001,

    , :

    (Bin Laden: la verite

    interdite) - (Jean-

    Charles Brisard) (Guillaume

    Dasquie),

    . ,

    :

    2001,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

  • 62

    . , ,

    .

    .

    14 2009,

    http://www.atimes.com,

    (Pepe Escobar) ,

    ,

    Unocal, 2001,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (Richard Armitage),

    Unocal.

    ,

    , -

    .

    (Group of Eight), ,

    2001,

    (2001).

    11 .

  • 63

    ,

    (Hamid Karzai)

    ,

    (Zalmay Khalilzad),

    Unocal. ,

    2002, ,

    ,

    TAPI,

    , ,

    . , ,

    ,

    .

    2000

    .

    .

  • 64

    .

    ,

    .

    , , ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    -. ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    TAPI,

    --.

    ,

    93 .

    -,

  • 65

    1997,

    . , 2004,

    120

    ,

    .

    10

    (LNG) 25 . ,

    .

    Persian

    Gas,

    Nabucco. ,

    -

    ,

    ,

    1995,

    .

  • 66

    (Arab Gas Pipeline), 1.200

    .

    ,

    2011 ,

    ,

    .

    TAPI,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    , , ,

    ,

    2011, ,

  • 67

    , , .

    (James Ward),

    The Slog, ,

    4 2012, :

    , ,

    600 ,

    ... Reuters

    .

    2014,

    ( ),

    ( )

    ( )

    ().

    ,

    .

    ARAMCO.

    ARAMCO

    ,

  • 68

    .

    ARAMCO

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    Google

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

    . ,

    .

  • 69

    ,

    .

    ARAMCO

    ,

    Gazprom,

    .

    ARAMCO

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . , ARAMCO ,

    ,

    . ,

    ARAMCO

    , ,

    ARAMCO

    (

  • 70

    )

    .

    ,

    ARAMCO, , 25

    2014,

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ARAMCO.

    ARAMCO

    .

  • 71

    2014

    . , 2014,

    ,

    ISIS

    ,

    ISIS,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ARAMCO

    .

    , 2014, ,

    ,

    .

    2011

    . ,

    , -,

    ,

  • 72

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    9 10

    2014,

    , , ,

    ,

    P5+1, 24

    2014.

    ,

    .

    , ,

    , .

    ARAMCO

    -.

  • 73

    -,

    2013,

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ISIS . , 3

    2014,

    ,

    ISIS,

    ,

    -,

    .

  • 74

    3.

    -

    :

    , ,

    -, ARAMCO.

    ,

    1960,

    ,

    . ,

    , Federal

    Reserve

    (

    , .

    : . , ,

    : , 2014).

    2014,

    -,

    ,

  • 75

    ,

    (ISIS, IS, ISIL)

    .

    . ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    2014,

    ,

    2014,

    Brent 20%, 112

    , 88 .

  • 76

    Brent,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    OPEC,

    ,

    OPEC, , ,

    ()

    .

    ,

    , ,

    2014,

    50 60

    , , ,

    100 (. M.

    Rochan, Crude Oil Drops Amid Global Demand

    Concerns, IB Times, October 11, 2014).

    ,

  • 77

    ,

    ,

    (derivatives)

    Wall Street.

    2014

    2014,

    ,

    ARAMCO, ,

    (. ),

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

  • 78

    2014 (: Nasdaq):

    .

    ,

    ARAMCO , ,

    ARAMCO.

    2014, Columbus

    ,

    (Interstate Oil and Gas Compact

  • 79

    Commission)

    2015. ,

    (Phil

    Bryant),

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    Tuscaloosa Marine Shale,

    .

    (hydraulic fracturing

    fracking).

    Tuscaloosa

    Marine Shale

    (

    )

    .

    , :

    ... ,

  • 80

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    2014,

    Post Carbon Institute

    :

    (Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check

    on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting

    Tight Oil & Shale Gas Boom).

    Post Carbon Institute

    : ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    (fracking)

  • 81

    (

    fracking

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    fracking

    ).

    . 7 2014,

    Bloomberg ,

    ,

    . (Dan Dicker),

    MercBloc Wealth Management

    Solutions,

    Bloomberg, 20 2014,

  • 82

    80 ,

    .

    Bloomberg, :

    80

    , .

    (Ralph Eads),

    Jefferies LLC, Bloomberg,

    8 2014,

    80 ,

    . , 25

    2014, Brent

    78,33 .

  • 83

    4.

    : CIA Fed

    US Treasury

    Fed

    . .

    . ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    . ,

    Fed,

    ,

    ,

    swaps (

    ),

    .

    ,

    21 ,

  • 84

    Fed

    (insolvent on a

    market to market basis).

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    , (

    ), CIA,

    , James

    Rickards (

    risk management),

    (. : J.

    Rickards, The Death of Money, Portfolio

    Hardcover, 2014).

    , Fed,

    ,

    ,

    (Freedom of Information Act, 5

  • 85

    U.S.C. 552),

    .

    Fed

    Fed

    Fed.

    ,

    1913,

    Fed 100

    .

    Fed

    ,

    (open market operations),

    . ,

    ,

    (bond dealers),

    . Fed

    ( ),

    ,

    Fed

  • 86

    , .

    Fed

    (reserves)

    .

    ,

    (fractional

    reserve),

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    Fed, ,

    .

    Ellen Brown,

    http://www.webofdebt.com/, 7

    2008, Fed

    Fed

    6

    Fed (:

  • 87

    http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/time_to_buy

    _the_fed.php).

    , CIA, FBI

    ,

    Fed

    .

    ( ..

    )

    .

    1990, CIA

    .

    2008,

    CIA

    . CIA,

    Project

  • 88

    Prophecy,

    Wall Street.

    ,

    1960 1970,

    ,

    (

    ) 2,41 .

    ,

    1970 1980,

    ,

    ( ) 0,41

    . ,

    3 , , 2014,

    ,

    (

    ) 0,03 .

    Fed

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    (Federal Reserve System)

    (ECB) ,

  • 89

    2007, swap

    /,

    (mortgage-backed securities). ,

    2011,

    , ,

    , ,

    , (big

    six),

    .

    ,

    ,

    (),

    .

    , Fed

    . ,

    Deutsche Bank, Jim

    Reid 11

    2014:

  • 90

    .

    ,

    , Fed,

    ,

    .

    :

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , .

    ,

    : ,

    . ,

    ,

    (velocity) 3.

    ,

    ;

    .

    .

    :

    1970 1980,

    , , 1,7,

  • 91

    1990

    1990 2,2, , 2000

    , , , 2014,

    1,3.

    1920,

    , 1929.

    , 2014,

    1,3.

    Fed

    swaps.

    .

    , (leveraged debt)

    Fed .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    Fed, ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

  • 92

    2014, Fed

    56,2 .

    ,

    .

    Fed 4,3 . , Fed

    4,3

    56,2

    .

    .

    (leveraged debt)

    Fed : 2008,

    22 1,

    22

    Fed 1 ,

    77 1.

    Fed,

    .

    (Misery Index).

    .

  • 93

    .

    1970,

    10,

    1970 20,

    2000

    30. ,

    ,

    32,89. ,

    ,

    ,

    27.

    2014, ,

    . ,

    50

    (food

    stamps),

    23 .

    .

    (

    ),

    .

    (real unemployment),

    (Bureau of Labor

    Statistics)

  • 94

    ( )

    ,

    .

    ,

    , 2014,

    ( )

    (Long

    Depression), 1870

    1900 , ,

    (Great Depression),

    1929 1940,

    .

    2010,

    ,

    funds,

    .

    70

    . , ,

  • 95

    CIA .

    ,

    2008,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    (

    ),

    . (

    )

    .

  • 96

    5.

    (Rashid

    Abanmy),

    (Saudi Arabia Oil

    Policies and Strategic Expectations Center),

    ,

    OPEC (. Nihan Cabbaroglu, Saudi Arabia to

    pressure Russia Iran with price of oil, 10

    October 2014, Turkish Anadolu Agency).

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    50%

    .

  • 97

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . , , ,

    BRICS (

    , , ,

    ),

    , ,

    , ,

    ,

    (Heartland),

    . ,

    ,

  • 98

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 99

    6.

    -

    11 2014,

    .

    , .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

  • 100

    (. Adam Entous and Julian

    E. Barnes, Deal With Saudis Paved Way for

    Syrian Airstrikes: Talks With Saudi Arabia Were

    Linchpin in U.S. Efforts to Get Arab States Into

    Fight Against Islamic State, Wall Street

    Journal, September 24, 2014).

    ,

    ( )

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    2011,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

  • 101

    . , ,

    .

    ,

    , , .

    Asia Times,

    , --,

    ,

    (. Pepe Escobar, Why Qatar Wants to

    Invade Syria, Asia Times, September 27, 2012).

    ,

    --

    ,

    .

    ,

    --,

    16 2011,

    -

    ,

    . Gazprom

    .

  • 102

    , ,

    . ,

    (LNG),

    . ,

    ,

    . 2009,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    Gazprom

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

  • 103

    . , ,

    , ,

    .

  • 104

    7.

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    (Robin Cook),

    The Guardian,

    8 2005, , ,

    (

    )

    ,

    CIA

    .

    ,

    ISI (Islamic State of

    Iraq) (AQI,

    Al Qaeda in Iraq),

  • 105

    .

    2010, ISI

    (Abu Bakr

    AlBaghdadi), ,

    ,

    (. A. Shadid,

    Iraqui Insurgent Group Names New Leaderw,

    The New York Times, 16 May 2010). 2013,

    ISI .

    2013,

    (Islamic

    State of Iraq and the Levant), ISIL,

    (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), ISIS.

    ISIS ,

    ,

    ,

    (Jabhat alNusra)

    ISI

    ISIS. 2014,

    ISIS

    .

    NSA (National Security

    Agency), (Edward

  • 106

    Snowden), 2013

    ,

    Mossad

    , ISIS.

    ,

    . ,

    Mossad (

    , . : . ,

    , :

    , 2014). ,

    ISIS

    CIA NATO

    (William Engdahl),

    RT 24

    2014 (.

    http://rt.com/opedge/168064isisterrorismusaci

    awar/).

    , CIA

  • 107

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    PYD (

    ),

    ,

    , 2013,

    (Katibat

    alTaliban), KaT. KaT

    ,

    .

    KaT

    PYD

    .

    KaT,

  • 108

    (Fethullah

    Glen).

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    (Oded Yinon),

    ,

    ,

    1980

  • 109

    (A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties),

    Kivunim ( 14,

    1982),

    (World

    Zionist Organization).

    , ,

    ( )

    :

    ... ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ...

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

  • 110

    ...

    ...

    , .

    ,

    / ,

    , . (

    )

    : , ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ( )

    (become

    an imperial regional power)

    (must effect the division of the whole

  • 111

    area into small states by the dissolution of all

    existing Arab states).

    (

    ),

    .

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

  • 112

    .

    (Ralph Peters),

    (U.S. National

    War Academy)

    (Deputy Chief of Staff for

    Intelligence) ,

    ,

    , ,

    2006

    Armed Forces Journal (

    ).

    ,

    ,

    , , ,

    ,

    , (

    )

    .

    ,

  • 113

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    , , , ,

    .

    ,

    (Defense College)

    .

  • 114

    .

  • 115

    8.

    :

    ,

    , .. ,

    ,

    ,

    Fed

    (), .

    .

    Fed .

  • 116

    ,

    ,

    Fed

    -

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    funds

    . ,

    ,

    Fed

    -

    .

    Fed,

  • 117

    ,

    Lehman Brothers ,

    2,5

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    2 ,

    ,

    .

    2008 2013,

    Fed

    ,

    (assets)

    2,1

    ,

    2,5

    Fed,

    0,5

    2008-2013.

  • 118

    9.

    :

    /Fed

    , 2008,

    ()

    ().

    (

    , ).

    :

    (

    ,

    ),

    (

    ,

  • 119

    , ..

    ,

    ,

    ), ,

    ,

    (

    ) ..

    ,

    .

    :

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ( ).

    ,

    ,

  • 120

    (

    ,

    , , ..).

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    , .

    :

    (quantitative easing)

    .

    . Michael A. Gayed,

    Pension Partners LLC,

    2014 ,

    Fed

    ,

    (Q3)

    . 1,

    (Q1)

    ( 2009-2010)

    ,

  • 121

    ,

    (Q2) ( 2011-

    2013) ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (Q3) (

    2013 )

    .

    1:

    :

  • 122

    :

    . 22 2010,

    Wall Street Journal ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    (BOJ)

    2001. , 2006,

    .

    (

    ),

    2006.

    , ,

    ,

    2008.

  • 123

    : ,

    ,

    ,

    2009-2010,

    (gilts)

    ,

    .

    , 2009,

    165 ,

    2010

    175 .

    .

    2011,

    ,

    2,

    ,

    .

  • 124

    2:

    :

    :

    . ,

    2008 2013,

    15.4

    , 24 ,

    140

    !

    ,

    1970

    2000,

    2010

    .

    (

  • 125

    , .. funds),

    10

    (PBOC),

    . 2010,

    .

    2010, , 1990,

    .

    , ,

    2010, :

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    ( )

  • 126

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    , ,

    1990. ,

    ,

    .

    2010 1,7

    , , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 127

    .

    21 ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    BRICS,

    .

  • 128

    10.

    ()

    2008

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    de facto

    . ,

    ,

    /,

    , ,

    .

  • 129

    ,

    :

    ,

    , ad hoc

    .

    ,

    ,

    : ,

    40%

    ,

    .

  • 130

    . ,

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    . , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    20082013,

    ,

    , ,

    . ,

  • 131

    ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    30%,

    (..

    , ,

    )

    ,

    (recession),

  • 132

    (depression),

    .

    1929,

    ,

    .

    , 1930,

    (Franklin Delano Roosevelt),

    .

    , 2014,

    Eurostat

    1,5 .

  • 133

    , ,

    19,7

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    1,5

    2013

    Eurogroup.

    () ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    /Fed.

    2012,

    (Pierre Moscovici),

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (Steffen

    Kampeter) ,

    ,

  • 134

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ()

    ,

    ().

  • 135

    . , ,

    ,

    ,

    -

    .

    (Martin Feldstein),

    (National Bureau of Economic

    Research) 2008

    Harvard,

    The Economist 13 1992:

    . ,

    .

    1960,

    (Robert

    Mundell), (Ronald McKinnon)

  • 136

    (Peter Kenen)

    (. R. A. Mundell, International Economics,

    New York: Macmillan, 1968, . 177-186).

    1999.

    (optimum

    currency areas)

    (

    ),

    (

    ).

    . ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    . ,

    ,

  • 137

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

  • 138

    . ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    (..

    ).

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    , ,

  • 139

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    . ,

    (

    )

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    2008,

    (

    ),

  • 140

    30 .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    . ,

    , (

    ),

    ,

  • 141

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (

    , .

    : . , , :

    , 2014).

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    , ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    (Samuel Huntington),

    Harvard,

    (The Clash of Civilizations, New

  • 142

    York: Simon and Schuster, 1996).

    : ()

    , ()

    , ,

    ()

    . ,

    The Chash of Civilizations?,

    Foreign

    Affairs, 1993,

    : ,

    ,

    ,

    ...

    .

  • 143

    11.

    o BRICS

    ,

    Fed,

    : (i)

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    . (ii)

    ,

    . (iii)

    ,

    .

  • 144

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    . :

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    : (i)

    ,

    (..

  • 145

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    ..), (ii)

    ,

    , (iii)

    ,

    , , ,

    .

    ,

    21 ,

    . ,

    (Fogh Rasmussen),

    (

    )

    , Asia

  • 146

    Pivot

    .

    2000,

    ,

    ( ..

    2014

    ).

    .

    (Madeleine

    Albright)

    (Joschka Fischer),

    .

    2010,

    ,

  • 147

    Heartland

    . ,

    1910, 2010,

    .

    2014,

    (),

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    . , ,

    ,

    ,

    , BRICS

  • 148

    , ,

    , .

    BRICS

    , ,

    ,

    BRIC (

    )

    2009

    . ,

    BRICS

    , 2010,

    , 2011,

    , 2012,

    , 2013 .. 2013,

    BRICS 3

    ,

    14

    4

    .

    (New

    Development Bank), NDB,

    BRICS Development Bank,

    BRICS

  • 149

    .

    BRICS

    BRICS,

    , 27 2013.

    50

    BRICS,

    (sustainable

    development) .

    , BRICS,

    100

    .

    Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA)

    (Anton Siluanov)

    -.

    BRICS,

    BRICS,

    : 41 ,

    , 18

    5

    .

  • 150

    BRICS

    ( ,

    , ,

    ),

    ,

    .

    : BRICS

    , 18 2012,

    : (Dilma

    Rousseff) ,

    (Vladimir Putin)

    ,

    (Manmohan Singh) ,

    (Hu Jintao)

    (Jacob Zuma)

    .

  • 151

    --.

    ,

    ,

    1990

    .

    , 21 ,

    ,

    . , 1998-

    1999,

    --.

    29 2014,

    (Narendra Modi),

    ,

    ,

    , , ,

  • 152

    , , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    (Manmohan Singh).

    2014,

    (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP)

    66,4%.

    , 25 2014,

    ,

    - SSARC (South

    Asian Association of Regional Countries),

    , ,

    , , ,

    , .

    (Nawaz Sharif)

    ,

    (Mahinda Rajapakse).

    ,

    ,

  • 153

    . ,

    ,

    :

    .

    ,

    .

    , 2009,

    Liberation Tigers of

    Tamil Eelam (LTTE) .

    LTTE

    .

    :

  • 154

    .

    .

    , ,

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 155

    , ,

    8

    ,

    . 27 2014,

    China Daily

    .

    ,

    , ,

    , 8

    2014 ,

    ,

    .

    (

    )

    .

    ,

    : ,

    ,

    , ,

  • 156

    ,

    ,

    19 .

    ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

  • 157

    .

    :

    ,

    . ,

    .

    :

  • 158

    , 21 ,

    (

    ),

    .

    , 20 2014,

    .

    ,

    46

    ,

    . , 20

    2014,

    400

    1.500 . ,

    ,

    (

    ),

    (

  • 159

    ).

    BRICS,

    .

    (Eurasian Economic Union,

    EaEU).

    , ,

    , ,

    .

    ()

    10 2000,

    , ,

    (Alexander

    Lukashenko) ,

    (Nursultan Nazarbayev)

    , (Askar Akayev)

    ,

    (Emomali

    Rakhmonov)

    (Eurasian Economic Community).

  • 160

    7 2005,

    . 1

    2010,

    (

    )

    .

    2014,

    215

    . ,

    ,

    .

    18 2011,

    ,

    2015.

    ,

    1 2012. 29

    2014, ,

    , ,

  • 161

    1

    2015.

    10 2014,

    (Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS),

    ,

    .

    , ,

    29 2014, ,

    ,

    .

    , 10 2014,

    ,

    :

    de facto

  • 162

    .

    de jure. ,

    , 1

    2015.

    .

  • 163

    (, ),

    , 2014,

    , , ,

    . 2014,

    ( )

    20 . . . 170 .

    :

    ,

    ,

  • 164

    1944,

    ,

    ,

    ( , ,

    ...),

    .

    ( , / ,

    ,

    ..),

    ,

    , ..

    ,

    (

    , . : . ,

    , :

    , 2014). ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

  • 165

    (. . , ..).

    ,

    (Collective Security

    Treaty Organization, CSTO)

    ,

    . 7

    2002, ,

    , , ,

    .

    2 4

    ,

    . , 4 2009,

  • 166

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    BRICS ,

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    / ,

    /

    BRICS

    Contingent Reserve Arrangement

    (IMF).

  • 167

    O

    think-

    tank Research Institute for

    Noopolitical and Geopolitical

    Studies (RINGS),

    Sovereign Orthodox Christian Order

    of Saint Nikolaos of Myra

    (www.snorder.org),

    (

    )

    R-Techno private

    intelligence company (www.r-techno.org).

    1974. ,

    University of La Verne ().

    Academia Theolgica de San

    Andrs (),

    Samuel Huntington.

    University of

    Indianapolis (Athens Campus).

    : The

    Metaphysics of World Order: A Synthesis of

    Philosophy, Theology, and Political Theory (Eugene,

    OR: Cascade Books Wipf and Stock Publishers),

    Foundations of Cultural Diplomacy (New York:

  • 168

    Algora Publishing), Theory Construction and

    Empirical Relevance in International Relations

    (Athens: Ant. N. Sakkoulas Publishers), Topics in

    Mathematical Analysis and Differential Geometry

    (London, New Jersey, Singapore, Hong Kong: World

    Scientific Publishing Co.).

    think-tank

    :

    Strategic Political Intelligence

    Strategic Cultural Intelligence

    Strategic Economic Intelligence

    Strategic Military Intelligence

    Cybernetics