"Unraveling the package of climate change"

VAROTSOS Costas covar@phys.uoa.gr

covar@atmos.umd.edu

Temporal evolution – 4 regimes

Climate variability: from 2 to 3 types of - regimes

? Dichotomy ? ΔT = <ϕ> Δt H Trichotomy

Weather (up to 10 days)

Macroweather(10 days to 10‐30 yrs)

Climate(10‐30yrs to 50,000 yrs)

H ≈ 0.4: Fluctuations Growing

H ≈ -0.4: Fluctuations Decreasing

H ≈ 0.4: Fluctuations Growing

Nambu-formulation: for weather forecasting and climate

simulations Question: to find out an atmospheric basic equation set suitable for global weather forecasting and climate simulationsSub-question: How to come to this?The primary demand is to start from most general equations, that is the nonhydrostatic compressible system with the rich physical content of a turbulent multi-component system, including dry air, water vapour, liquid water and the ice phase.

Answer:The first main result is to demonstrate on that level a model equation set with neat conservation of mass, total energy ( with a reasonably closed energy budget involving mechanical and internal energy ) and Ertel's vector vorticity.Based on this result we are in the following strongly interested in to apply a Nambu-formulation of our model equation set. Starting point is Nevir's (1998).

The “dishpan” experiment

For the troposphere

Scale: Leddy~Lρ(Rossby radius) ~ 700km

Time-scale: Teddy ~ 1 day

Edward Lorenz (1956)

β: Rossby parameter

(The open annulus is topologically equivalent to the open cylinder)

heated from belowRayleigh-Benardconvection

Prandtl number(kin. visc./ther. diffus.)

“Newton's bucket” (May 12, 2006, Phys. Rev. Lett. 96 174502)

The dissipative terms control the instability threshold

A new class of travelling-wave solutions to the Navier-Stokes equation that exist for Re > 1200.(Reynolds nr = Lu/ν) v: kinematic viscosity (visc/dens)

wavy vortex flows in the "Couette-Taylor" system and classical "Kelvin-Helmhotz-Rayleigh" shears.

New look for "Newton's bucket" May 12 (Phys. Rev. Lett. 96 174502).

What happens when you rapidly rotate the bottom plate of an otherwise stationary cylinder filled with

water? According to new work by physicists in Denmark, you

produce rotating polygons with up to six corners on the water's surface. This new and spectacular type of "instability" could be used to study a wide variety of complex systems in physics, including rotating flows on Earth, hydraulic machinery in industry, vortices and tornadoes

Varotsos C, et al.,: The long-term coupling between column ozone and

tropopause properties. J Climate 17 (19): 3843-3854, 2004.

Mpemba effect

---------------------------------------------------- MAJOR SSW AND THE ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE SPLIT

Varotsos C.: The southern hemisphere ozone hole split in 2002. ESPR - Environ Sci & Pollut Res., 9 (6), 375-376, 2002.

First Highlight in United Nations Environ. Programme

AN EXTREME EVENT IN OZONE HOLE

A transient phenomenon

AIM: To identify the time when ozone hole (being a dynamic system) exhibits behavior similar to a phase change

EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ENVISAT)J-C. Lambert, et al:

First ground based validation of SCIAMACHY V5.01 ozone column. ESA’s ACVE-2 Proceedings of SCIAMACHY Validation Workshop, Proc. 2nd Workshop on the atmospheric chemistry validation

of Envisat ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Italy, 3-7 May 2004.

Varotsos, C.: The Extraordinary Events of the Major, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, the Diminutive Antarctic Ozone Hole, and its Split in 2002. Environ Sci & Pollut Res, 11 No.6, 405-411, 2004 (Invited Review Article)

H H απώλεια όζοντος έχει δυναμικά ή ανθρωπογενή αίτια?απώλεια όζοντος έχει δυναμικά ή ανθρωπογενή αίτια?MATCHMATCH METHOD METHOD

Section “News” (NATURE 435, p6, 5 MAY 2005)

Naval Research Lab. Wash. DCNaval Research Lab. Wash. DC

Leibniz Institute of Atmos. Leibniz Institute of Atmos. PhysicsPhysics

Service d’Aeronomie, CNRSService d’Aeronomie, CNRS

U of Athens, Dept of Applied U of Athens, Dept of Applied PhysPhys

NOAA, Boulder, ColoradoNOAA, Boulder, ColoradoU of TokyoU of Tokyo

Cambridge Univ.Cambridge Univ.

NASA, GSFCNASA, GSFC

Alfred Wegener InstituteAlfred Wegener Institute

Atmos. Env. Service CanadaAtmos. Env. Service Canada

Conclusion[Ο3]Β- [Ο3]Α = L ts + D td

L: depletion rate with solar radiation D: depletion rate without solar radiation t : the corresponding times L>>D (L=-7 ± 1.5 ppbv/hr, D=-0.5 ± 0.4 ppbv/hr)

Radiative Transfer in the Atmosphere

"SUVR and Ozone Content as Indicators of Environmental Quality" (EU)

-19 22.5 10 cm

-19 20.7 10 cm

Ziemke, J., S. Chandra, J. Herman and C. Varotsos: Erythemally weighted UV trends over northern latitudes derived from Nimbus 7 TOMS measurements. J. Geophys. Res. 105(6), 7373-7382, 2000

Varotsos, C. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D09202, 2005.

Varotsos, C.: Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(17), 1787-1790, 1994.

Rex, M. Rex, M. et alet al : : Prolonged stratospheric ozone loss in the 1995–96 Arctic winterProlonged stratospheric ozone loss in the 1995–96 Arctic winter NATURE,NATURE, 389, 835-838, 1997 389, 835-838, 1997

Rex, M. Rex, M. et alet al : : In-situ measurements of stratospheric ozone depletion rates in the Arctic In-situ measurements of stratospheric ozone depletion rates in the Arctic Winter 1991/92: A Lagrangian Approach. Winter 1991/92: A Lagrangian Approach. JJ..Geoph.Res. 103, 5843-5853, 1998.Geoph.Res. 103, 5843-5853, 1998.

Schulz, A., Schulz, A., et alet al: Match observations in the Arctic winter 1996/97: High stratospheric : Match observations in the Arctic winter 1996/97: High stratospheric ozone loss rates correlate with low temperatures deep inside the polar vortex. ozone loss rates correlate with low temperatures deep inside the polar vortex. Geoph.Res.Let, 27, 205-208, 2000.Geoph.Res.Let, 27, 205-208, 2000.

Schulz A., et al: Schulz A., et al: Arctic ozone loss in threshold conditions:Arctic ozone loss in threshold conditions: Match observations in 97/98 Match observations in 97/98 and 98/99.and 98/99. JJ..Geoph.Res. 106: 7495-7503, 2001.Geoph.Res. 106: 7495-7503, 2001.

von der Gathen P., von der Gathen P., et alet al : : Observational evidence for chemical ozone Observational evidence for chemical ozone depletion over the Arctic in winter 1991-92. depletion over the Arctic in winter 1991-92. NATURE, Vol. 375, 131-134, 1995.NATURE, Vol. 375, 131-134, 1995.

ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS: Anthropogenic and Natural

K. Kondratyev, A. A. Grigoryev, C. A. Varotsos,

SPRINGER -Praxis, 528 pages, 2002.

CORROSION: The decreasing sulphur dioxide levels and increasing vehicle emissions in most parts of Europe has created a new multi-pollutant situation, with effects on

materials influenced by NOx, PM, O3 and SO2 impacts.

Ferm M, De Santis F, Varotsos C.: Nitric acid measurements in connection with corrosion studies. Atmos. Environ. 39 (35): 6664-6672 2005.

ATHENS

Université Paris XII, University of AthensNorwegian Institute for Air Research Swiss Federal Labs. for Materials Testing and ResearchSwedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL)

Question: What is the standard paradigm of natural climate variability (up to millennial time scales)?

Answer: The red-noise (stochastic field) hypothesis has replaced an older white-noise assumption after the suggestion [Allen and Robertson 1996] that climate variability behaves as a first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) process (obeys an exponential autocorrelation function).

The global temperature exhibits a “pinkish” character (months to decades) [e.g., Pelletier & Turcotte, 1999; Varotsos & Kirk-Davidoff, 2006; Varotsos et al. 2012, 2013].If −1 < β < 1: process is fractional Gaussian noise-fGn; If β = 0: process is Gaussian white-noise (flat power spectrum); if β = 1 a transition from a stationary noise to a nonstationary motion occurs; If 1 < β < 3 the nonstationary process is a fractional Brownian motion (fBm), where β = 2 corresponds to a Brownian motion.

Brown (Brownian motion-Wiener process) or red or random walk noise: power spectral density: S(f) → 1 / f 2

Pink (or flicker) noise: spectral density S(f) → 1 / f (Bak et al. 1987)

Long-range memory-process (More slow dacay)

PART II: Slow and fast climate changes

It has long been recognised that despite the slow and gradual climate variability, rapid climate changes might be expected, since the climate system is in an unstable equilibrium (Brooks 1925; Humphreys 1932; Budyko 1962; IPCC, 2007: climate "surprises“).

In the climate temporal evolution a small, even random, forcingcould trigger rapid and irreversible changes (so-called "tippingpoints“.

Therefore, a small change in initial conditions would spark a self-sustaining transition between climate states, which might be abrupt, i.e., with jumps between climate regimes. A compelling example is the melting of Siberian permafrost which has been identified as one of the tipping points (“methane bomb in the permafrost”: sudden release of Methane from the Arctic tundra due to a thawing of permafrost).

A recent example:Belolipetsky PV, Bartsev SI, Degermendzhi AG, Hsu HH, Varotsos CA(2013) Empirical evidence for a double step climate change in twentieth

century. http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1303/1303.1581.pdf

(1)The increase in SST over 30 °S–60 °N during 1900–2012 did not occur slowly and gradually, but abruptly in 1925/1026 and 1987/1988 with time-separated events by 62 years, i.e., an interval reminiscent of the well established quasi-60 year natural cycle.

Apart from these shifts, most of the remaining SST variability can be explained by the ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

(2) Before and after the two shifts in SST, the intrinsic properties of the SST time series is unaffected by the modulation of these two shifts. Hence, the plausible forcing that resulted in the SST shifts did not alter the nature of the SST and ENSO variability.

(3) The SST fluctuations exhibit 1/f-type behaviour, which can be established only in the time period between the two SST shifts.

(4) Our results suggest that the SST shifts are an intrinsic property of the climate system.

MAIN RESULTS from Varotsos et al., TAAC 112 (3-4) 2013

Conclusions

Time series of minimum total ozone (Dobson units) over the polar cap, (a) March in the Arctic, and (b) October in the Antarctic, calculated as the minimum of daily average column ozone poleward of 63◦ equivalent latitude.

Varotsos,C.: et al.: Aircraft observations of the solar ultraviolet irradiance throughout the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D14): 14843-14854, 2001.

Varotsos C.: Airborne measurements of aerosol, ozone, and solar ultraviolet irradiance in the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res.110 (D9): art. no. D09202 2005

UV instrument of UoA

The blue dots denoting the years with the maximum values of VPSC during 5-year intervals and the red dots denoting the years with winters when major sudden stratospheric warming in December–February occurred.

Conclusions