Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

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Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries Árni Snorrason Hydrological Service, National Energy Authority, Iceland The Arctic Energy Summit Anchorage, Alaska 15-18 October 2007

Transcript of Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

Page 1: Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

Árni SnorrasonHydrological Service,

National Energy Authority, IcelandThe Arctic Energy Summit

Anchorage, Alaska 15-18 October 2007

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Outline

• Nordic energy sector • Motivation• Climate and Energy project 2003-2006• Results• New project: Climate and Energy Systems 2007-

2010• Arctic-HYDRA: Pan-Arctic Extension

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Nordel 2006 statisticsNordel Σ(renewable energy) = 54% in 2006 (was 59% in 2005 and 57% in 2004)

Nordel is the organisation of the Nordic Transmission System Operators

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IPCC skýrsla 2001:

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Sunnanverður Langjökull, ljósmynd: Oddur Sigurðsson, 2003

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Glacial changes in Iceland

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Glacial changes in Iceland

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Inflow to the Swedish reservoirs 1950 - 2002

-20

-15

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-5

0

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50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02

TWh/år

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• Late snow melt combined with heavy rain can result in large floods in East Norway.

• Vesleofsen in June 1995 caused damages for 1.8 Billion NOK.

• Milder winters may result in fewer large floods in the large rivers, as a result of milder winters with multiple melting events during the winter - increasing winter precipitation may, however lead to increasing snow storage.

Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001

Snow melt floods

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Photos by Eberg Elefsen

Photo by Davíð Guðnason

Winter flood in Ölfusá, Iceland

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Rain storms and flash floods

Source: Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Bern Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001

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Source: Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Bern

Rain storms and flash floods

Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001

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Foto: C-O Brandesten, Vattenfall

Dam safety

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Climate & Energy project 2003-06

• Objectives: Simulate consequences of climate changes for the period 2071-2100 for the renewable energy sources and for the Nord Pool electricity system as of 2010 configuration– with reference to the climate 1961-1990– does not give a forecast for how the system

develops into the future

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Climate & Energy project

• IPCC report - global climate models GCM• Regional climate models by Rossby/SMHI• Assessment of climate change impact for hydro /

wind / bio / solar • Energy system analysis• 9 working groups for each of the RE technologies

+ climate scenarios, statistical, energy systems and information management

• 80+ scientists from the Nordic and Baltic countries

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The structure of the CE project

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Climate scenarios

• As the future is inherently uncertain we use scenarios to assess it

• A scenario is an internally consistent image of the future - not a prediction

• We use two global climate models:• ECHAM4/OPYC3 from Max Planck Institute • HadAM3H from Hadley centre,UK

– and 2 emission scenarios A2 & B2

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Scenarios for Iceland:

Warming of about 2,5°C/CenturyIncrease in precipitation about 5%/Century

CE: Rummukainen, Eurenew 2006 1961-90 to 2071-2100, HIRHAM-H-A2

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Decrease in volume of the seven glaciers in the study

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Increase in runoff from the seven glaciers under study

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The Nordic-Baltic Region

Calculated annual mean changes from 1961-90 to 2071-2100 based on 2 SRES, 2 GCM and 1 RCM.

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Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Hadley/A2

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Echam/A2

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Hadley/B2

Annualrunoffchange(mm)

Echam/B2

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Winterrunoffchange(mm)

Hadley/B2

Summer runoffchange(mm)

Hadley/B2

Spring runoffchange(mm)

Hadley/B2

Autumnrunoffchange(mm)

Hadley/B2

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National hydrograph for Finland

Daily mean discharge from the land surface of Finland (m3/s)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1 27 53 79 105 131 157 183 209 235 261 287 313 339 365

day of year

m3 /s

control Echam/A2 Echam/B2 Hadley/A2 Hadley/B2

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Design values are adequate in the future

Design values are adequate in the future, but need to be monitored

The design values might be inadequate in the future

Smallest floods Largest floods

Will the runoff capacities of the dams be adequate in 2070-2100?

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Wind energy in the Nordic countries [MW]

World Market Update2007

BTM Consult

Inst.2006

end 2006

Finland 4 89

Norway 53 328

Sweden 62 571

Denmark 14 3101Horns Rev offshore wind farm

80 x 2 MW , 2002

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Wind energy

legend

Changes in wind energy density [W/m2] in 2071 to 2100

relative to 1961-1990

ECHAM4

HadAM3H

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Average ice cover in the Baltic Sea

Less than 25 days 25-50 days 50-100 days 100-150 days 150-200 days More than 200 days

Less than 25 days 25-50 days 50-100 days 100-150 days 150-200 days More than 200 days

Average length of icing period in days for the Baltic Sea, The average length of icing period for 30 years is calculated separately

for each grid point.

1961-1990 HadAM3H 2071-2100

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Bio energy - results

• The potential for peat production increases significantly by 9-16%

• The productivity of forest ecosystems will increase by 10-20%

• Increase in agricultural crops for biofuel production is estimated at 25%

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Impact on the Nordic Energy system

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Conclusions

• Climate change over the next 100 years will have significant impact on our energy system

• Most climate changes are beneficial and none catastrophic; Dam safety is nevertheless an issues

• Significant increase in inflow and hydro power potential – Especially for the ECHAM scenario

• Increased potential for biomass and biofuels• Limited change in wind power production (avrg.)

– however regional changes

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The main project results

To order http://www.norden.org/pub/sk/showpub.asp?pubnr=2007:003

Published 2007Pages 192Price DKK 165

Impact of Climate Change on Renewable Energy SourcesEdited by Jes FengerContribution from 30+ specialists on energy and climate change

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New project 2007-2010Climate & Energy Systems (CES)

• Main objective– To improve the decision framework of the energy

sector in the face of imminent impacts of climate changes on renewable resources and the energy system

– Special emphasis on the near future relevant to the energy sector, time frame 20-30 years

– Extend the co-operation to the Pan-Arctic

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IPY 2007-2008: Arctic-HYDRA

• Cluster of several hydrological projects within the IPY• Seed funding by the Nordic Council of Ministers• Pending application for seed funding from other bodies• Supported by the World Meteorological Organization

(Operational Hydrology) and the UNESCO-International Hydrology Program (Science)

• Participation of all Arctic Countries• Participation of all Arctic Hydrological Services• Dissemination through the Arctic Portal

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Arctic-HYCOS

Field campaigns, other components e.g., glacial

runoff, permafrostLTHO/NRB: River-basin case/process studies

Data Assimilation & Modeling, Archiving servicesData Assimilation & Modeling

Product development, outreach (Maps, analytical products)

Arctic-HYDRA

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Comprehensive modelling of the Pan-Arctic

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Greenland – HIRHAM-ECHAM

B2 A2

Precipitation

Annual meantemperature

%

K

Changes in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

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The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet

IPCC 2007

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Thank you for your attention

project homepage www.os.is/ce