Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries
Transcript of Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries
Climate and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries
Árni SnorrasonHydrological Service,
National Energy Authority, IcelandThe Arctic Energy Summit
Anchorage, Alaska 15-18 October 2007
Outline
• Nordic energy sector • Motivation• Climate and Energy project 2003-2006• Results• New project: Climate and Energy Systems 2007-
2010• Arctic-HYDRA: Pan-Arctic Extension
Nordel 2006 statisticsNordel Σ(renewable energy) = 54% in 2006 (was 59% in 2005 and 57% in 2004)
Nordel is the organisation of the Nordic Transmission System Operators
IPCC skýrsla 2001:
Sunnanverður Langjökull, ljósmynd: Oddur Sigurðsson, 2003
Glacial changes in Iceland
Glacial changes in Iceland
Inflow to the Swedish reservoirs 1950 - 2002
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
TWh/år
• Late snow melt combined with heavy rain can result in large floods in East Norway.
• Vesleofsen in June 1995 caused damages for 1.8 Billion NOK.
• Milder winters may result in fewer large floods in the large rivers, as a result of milder winters with multiple melting events during the winter - increasing winter precipitation may, however lead to increasing snow storage.
Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001
Snow melt floods
Photos by Eberg Elefsen
Photo by Davíð Guðnason
Winter flood in Ölfusá, Iceland
Rain storms and flash floods
Source: Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Bern Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001
Source: Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Bern
Rain storms and flash floods
Source: Roald and Beldring NVE 2001
Foto: C-O Brandesten, Vattenfall
Dam safety
Climate & Energy project 2003-06
• Objectives: Simulate consequences of climate changes for the period 2071-2100 for the renewable energy sources and for the Nord Pool electricity system as of 2010 configuration– with reference to the climate 1961-1990– does not give a forecast for how the system
develops into the future
Climate & Energy project
• IPCC report - global climate models GCM• Regional climate models by Rossby/SMHI• Assessment of climate change impact for hydro /
wind / bio / solar • Energy system analysis• 9 working groups for each of the RE technologies
+ climate scenarios, statistical, energy systems and information management
• 80+ scientists from the Nordic and Baltic countries
The structure of the CE project
Climate scenarios
• As the future is inherently uncertain we use scenarios to assess it
• A scenario is an internally consistent image of the future - not a prediction
• We use two global climate models:• ECHAM4/OPYC3 from Max Planck Institute • HadAM3H from Hadley centre,UK
– and 2 emission scenarios A2 & B2
Scenarios for Iceland:
Warming of about 2,5°C/CenturyIncrease in precipitation about 5%/Century
CE: Rummukainen, Eurenew 2006 1961-90 to 2071-2100, HIRHAM-H-A2
Decrease in volume of the seven glaciers in the study
Increase in runoff from the seven glaciers under study
The Nordic-Baltic Region
Calculated annual mean changes from 1961-90 to 2071-2100 based on 2 SRES, 2 GCM and 1 RCM.
Annualrunoffchange(mm)
Hadley/A2
Annualrunoffchange(mm)
Echam/A2
Annualrunoffchange(mm)
Hadley/B2
Annualrunoffchange(mm)
Echam/B2
Winterrunoffchange(mm)
Hadley/B2
Summer runoffchange(mm)
Hadley/B2
Spring runoffchange(mm)
Hadley/B2
Autumnrunoffchange(mm)
Hadley/B2
National hydrograph for Finland
Daily mean discharge from the land surface of Finland (m3/s)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1 27 53 79 105 131 157 183 209 235 261 287 313 339 365
day of year
m3 /s
control Echam/A2 Echam/B2 Hadley/A2 Hadley/B2
Design values are adequate in the future
Design values are adequate in the future, but need to be monitored
The design values might be inadequate in the future
Smallest floods Largest floods
Will the runoff capacities of the dams be adequate in 2070-2100?
Wind energy in the Nordic countries [MW]
World Market Update2007
BTM Consult
Inst.2006
end 2006
Finland 4 89
Norway 53 328
Sweden 62 571
Denmark 14 3101Horns Rev offshore wind farm
80 x 2 MW , 2002
Wind energy
legend
Changes in wind energy density [W/m2] in 2071 to 2100
relative to 1961-1990
ECHAM4
HadAM3H
Average ice cover in the Baltic Sea
Less than 25 days 25-50 days 50-100 days 100-150 days 150-200 days More than 200 days
Less than 25 days 25-50 days 50-100 days 100-150 days 150-200 days More than 200 days
Average length of icing period in days for the Baltic Sea, The average length of icing period for 30 years is calculated separately
for each grid point.
1961-1990 HadAM3H 2071-2100
Bio energy - results
• The potential for peat production increases significantly by 9-16%
• The productivity of forest ecosystems will increase by 10-20%
• Increase in agricultural crops for biofuel production is estimated at 25%
Impact on the Nordic Energy system
Conclusions
• Climate change over the next 100 years will have significant impact on our energy system
• Most climate changes are beneficial and none catastrophic; Dam safety is nevertheless an issues
• Significant increase in inflow and hydro power potential – Especially for the ECHAM scenario
• Increased potential for biomass and biofuels• Limited change in wind power production (avrg.)
– however regional changes
The main project results
To order http://www.norden.org/pub/sk/showpub.asp?pubnr=2007:003
Published 2007Pages 192Price DKK 165
Impact of Climate Change on Renewable Energy SourcesEdited by Jes FengerContribution from 30+ specialists on energy and climate change
New project 2007-2010Climate & Energy Systems (CES)
• Main objective– To improve the decision framework of the energy
sector in the face of imminent impacts of climate changes on renewable resources and the energy system
– Special emphasis on the near future relevant to the energy sector, time frame 20-30 years
– Extend the co-operation to the Pan-Arctic
IPY 2007-2008: Arctic-HYDRA
• Cluster of several hydrological projects within the IPY• Seed funding by the Nordic Council of Ministers• Pending application for seed funding from other bodies• Supported by the World Meteorological Organization
(Operational Hydrology) and the UNESCO-International Hydrology Program (Science)
• Participation of all Arctic Countries• Participation of all Arctic Hydrological Services• Dissemination through the Arctic Portal
Arctic-HYCOS
Field campaigns, other components e.g., glacial
runoff, permafrostLTHO/NRB: River-basin case/process studies
Data Assimilation & Modeling, Archiving servicesData Assimilation & Modeling
Product development, outreach (Maps, analytical products)
Arctic-HYDRA
Comprehensive modelling of the Pan-Arctic
Greenland – HIRHAM-ECHAM
B2 A2
Precipitation
Annual meantemperature
%
K
Changes in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990
The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet
IPCC 2007
Thank you for your attention
project homepage www.os.is/ce