GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

Henry NeufeldtOn behalf of the whole GRP5 team

ICRAF Science WeekNairobi, 12 September 2011

Major climate change (and variability?) at ICRAF• Baseline: Statesman• Climate trajectory: Elder statesman• ΔT: Very warm hearted; can T still rise?• ΔP: Will cause many tears upon departure (flooding?)• Adaptation: Continue working on evergreen agriculture• Mitigation: Electric motorcycling; less travel; Fairherbia albida

• Baseline: No beard (yet?)• Climate trajectory: not quite clear yet (low res photo)• ΔT: Can T still rise? (requires high doses of Diet Coke to

cool down)• ΔP: Unclear; could lead to more or less tears (robust adaptation

required!)• Adaptation: More Coke? Learn from indigenous peoples• Mitigation: Successfully lead ICRAF in CRP context

The limits of adaptation

(Sou

rce:

Par

ry e

t al.,

201

0)

Contributions to climate change

Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Years

Rea

l GD

P g

row

th (%

)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Var

iabi

lity

in R

ainf

all (

Met

er)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe

Benefits of trees on farms

• Biophysical benefits (e.g. shade, nutrients, water, SOM)

• Higher yields and income• Diversification of products and increased

adaptive capacity• Carbon sequestration and mitigation

Short-term losses vs. long-term benefits

GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to climate variability and change

GRP 5.2 on Mitigation: Advancing carbon sequestration through agroforestry to enhance livelihoods while mitigating climate change

Research Focus of the GRP on Climate Change

• Impact Assessment (CRP7.1+7.2+7.4; and some CRP6.4)• Downscaling climate models and development of climate analogues• Climate impacts on agroforestry species, pollinators, vectors and diseases• Impacts on economic activities

• Adaptation research (CRP7.1+7.2; and some CRP6.4)• Assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies• Improving adaptive capacity (e.g. through agroforestry)• Limits of adaptation and innovative risk management strategies

• Mitigation research (CRP7.3; CRP6.4)• Using RES and other approaches for climate change mitigation• Development of (more) sustainable biofuel production systems (e.g. charcoal)• Assessment of GHG fluxes from different soils and LU systems

Climate variability and changeImproved

environmentalbenefits

Improvedlivelihoods

Improvedfood security

Trade-offs and synergies

1. Adaptation to progressive climate change2. Adaptation through managing climate risk

3. Pro-poor climate change mitigation

Technologies, practices, policies and capacity enhancement:

4. Integration for decision making

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural,

NRM & food systems

There are three research themes in Component 4

• Research Theme 1: Harnessing forests, trees and agroforestry for climate change mitigation

• Research Theme 2: Enhancing climate change adaptation through forests, trees and agroforestry

• Research Theme 3: Understanding the role of forests, trees and agroforestry in achieving synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation

Currently processed -•Scenario SRES A1B •5 GCMs (CNRM, CSIRO, ECHAM5, MIROC3)•2030, 2050, 2080

Currently compiled -•<150,000 species occ. records •179 AGF tree species •<50 data providers complement GBIF data

Species recordsSource: GBIF et al.

Downscaled climate dataSource: CIAT

Cacao Agroforestry recordsSource: Zomer et al.

Records based on - •Zomer 2009. Trees on Farm•Eva et al. 2002. GLC 2000 SA•Sémhur 2009. World distribution map of cacao tree species

Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – ii) datasets

ICRAF LA

Financed by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org

Further analysis will be based on –Heubes, J., Kühn, I., König, K., Wittig, R., Zizka, G. and Hahn, K. (2011), Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa. Journal of Biogeography. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.xFinanced by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the

distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org

Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – iii) results

AGF tree species predictionsClimate driven shifts of AGF systems

Recent distribution of Cacau AGF Systems in the Amazon

Prediction of Cacau Agroforesty Systems in 2050 (SRES A1B, Echam5)

ICRAF LA

Innovation

Climate analogues

GHG flux measurement v1:

GC and IRGA

GHG flux measurement v2:

PAS Multi-gas analyzer

Key Successes

Critical issues and ICRAF research focusAction site for interventions of Reduce Emission from all land uses, and Rewarding for Environmental Services

PES and non-PES lessons learnt

Access to AF Germplasmand small-holders nursery

‘AF for small-holders’ livelihood

Critical issues:Low productivity on sloping land, high poverty rate, high rate of deforestation and degradation, poor cross-sectoral land use planning.Vulnerable to the increased climate variability

CC adaptation

Climate vulnerability, food security and coping strategies in western Kenya

• Farmers most interested in reducing food insecurity• No long- or medium-term planning possible under food insecure situation• Food insecurity rose by at least one month (above on average 3 months)

during recent drought and floods• Coping strategies lead into ‘poverty trap’• Tree planting (and other investments in livelihood improvements) only

after basic food security is guaranteed• Repercussion on strategies for development support?

All #s in %

Reduce Quantity,

Quality or # of meals

Comm-unity or family

support

Help from Gov, NGO,

Church

Borrow money

Casual Labor

Sell possess-ions or

livestock

Consume Seeds

Children attend school

less

Lower Nyando

85 30 42 32 28 72 72 38

Middle Nyando

38 23 18 37.5 25 40 61 12.5

Recommendations• Pair agroforestry with agricultural training to overcome the long lag times

before agroforestry benefits typically emerge and to address the more immediate needs of hunger alleviation

• Improve market accessibility to enhance income-generating opportunities provided by agroforestry techniques

• Increase access to farm implements and capital

• Organize educational farm visits to successful agroforestry projects to increase adoption of agroforestry techniques

• Involve farmers in the project planning process to best ensure targeting farmer demands

Tenure security

Tenure and Investment in Woody Vegetation

¡¿ Thanks for a future !?

•Predictability of the climatic information for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability (PICREVAT)•Secular evolution of climate in circum-atlantic regions and responses of eco-lacustrine sustems (ESCARSEL)•Rungwe Environmental Science Observatory Network (RESON)•Opportunity Cost of Different Land Use Options to Promote Agroforestry, Carbon and Biodiversity Assets: Case Study in Xishuangbanna•Coping, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Drought in Yunnan, Southwest China•Understanding Vulnerability of the Poor Mountain Farmers and Their Adaptation to Climate Variability and Socio-economic Stressors in Southwest China•Parkland trees and livelihoods: adapting to climate change in the West African Sahel•Wood quality and carbon-neutral fuelwood systems of native tree/shrub species in natural populations in the West African Sahel•National REDD network of Vietnam•Rewards for, Use of and shared investment in Pro-poor Environmental Services schemes (RUPES), phase II•Agroforestry for Climate change Adaptation in Vietnam and Kenya - Local and Scientific knowledge for Option Development•Architecture of REALU: Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses- REALU (Phase II)•Toward a biodiverse rubber estate: Quick biodiversity survey of Bridgestone Sumatra Rubber Estate•Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I-REDD)•Strategies to Use Biofuel Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa to Respond to Global Change (Better-iS)•Pro poor rewards for environmental services in Africa (PRESA)•Resilient Agro-landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania (ReACCT)•Carbon sequestration potential of parkland agroforestry in the Sahel (Cseq Sahel)•Carbon assessment in robusta shade coffee systems of Uganda (‘Carbon Coffee’)•Adaptation of Land-use to Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35•Accountability Local Level Initiative to Reduce Emission from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI)•Encouraging tree planting for carbon sequestration in Malawi•Crop insurance scheme and adaptation to climate change in the Shire river basin Malawi•Bioenergy Provision within Agroforestry Systems in East Africa•Analysis of the effects of inter-annual variation in rainfall and occurrence of extreme events on water use efficiency by crops in Agroforestry•Climate analogues: A flexible and powerful web-based tool for identifying and visualizing climate analogues•Power Relations and REDD: unpacking ‘carbon rights’ and addressing the question of legality in Indonesia•Fair and efficient and Sustainable Emission Reduction from Land Use in Indonesia (FESERLUI)•A Study of Carbon Footprint of Indonesian Palm Oil Production•Forests and Climate in the Asia Pacific Region•Patterns of Vulnerability in the Forestry, Agriculture, Water Sectors and the Costal Zones in Leyte Island, Philippines•Feasibility of REDD mechanisms in the case of the East Usambaras, Tanzania•Sumatran orangutan habitat ecosystem services assessment and opportunity cost analysis•Rewards for Use of and Shared Investment in Pro-poor Environmental Services (RUPES) – Kalahan, Philippines•Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific•Carbon Mitigation Potential of REDD in the Philippines: Will it make a Difference in Financing Forest Development?•Overcoming Barriers of Smallholder Forestry Carbon Development in the Philippines•Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia•Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA)•Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement, Monitoring and Modeling (CBP:MMM)•Enabling small holders to improve their livelihoods and benefit from carbon finance •The COMART FOUNDATION West Kenya Project 2010 Impact Assessment•Biochar inoculants for enabling smallholder agriculture (BREAD)

List of all ongoing projects with climate change contexts