Our thinking in social-ecological systems research is ......2015 Our thinking in social-ecological...
28
MΩD∑L C∆L∑ND∆R 2015 Our thinking in social-ecological systems research is influenced by many models. This calendar highlights some of these models. It is a result of monthly dinners and model discussions over a year by a group of researchers at the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Transcript of Our thinking in social-ecological systems research is ......2015 Our thinking in social-ecological...
MΩ
D∑L
C∆
L∑N
D∆
R20
15O
ur t
hink
ing
in s
ocial
-eco
logi
cal s
yste
ms
rese
arch
is in
fluen
ced
by m
any
mod
els. T
his
calen
dar
high
light
s so
me
of t
hese
mod
els. I
t is
a re
sult
of m
onth
ly d
inne
rs a
nd m
odel
disc
ussio
ns o
ver a
yea
r by
a gr
oup
of re
sear
cher
s at t
he B
eijer
Inst
itute
of E
colo
gica
l Eco
nom
ics a
nd
the S
tock
holm
Res
ilien
ce C
entre
.
MO
DEL
: So
cial-e
colog
ical s
yste
m, o
r cak
e mod
el (F
olke 1
990;
Per
rings
et al
. 199
2)
PURP
OSE
: The
cake
mod
el de
mon
strat
es th
at th
e eco
nom
y is a
par
t of t
he so
cial
syste
m, w
hich
is in
its t
urn
part
of th
e bios
pher
e. Th
is m
akes
the e
cono
my a
n in
tertw
ined
pa
rt of
syste
m ea
rth.
IMPA
CT:
The m
odel
evok
ed a
persp
ectiv
e shi
ft of
the t
radit
ional
econ
omic
view
of la
nd, la
bour
, ca
pital
as fa
ctor
s of p
rodu
ction
for t
he ec
onom
y to
the e
cono
my a
s an
embe
dded
par
t of t
he b
iosph
ere.
The s
ocial
-eco
logica
l sys
tem
mod
el re
pres
ents
the c
ore o
f the
Sto
ckho
lm R
esilie
nce C
entre
and
the B
eijer
In
stitu
te o
f Eco
logica
l Eco
nom
ics as
well
as th
e key
view
in co
inin
g thi
s era
as th
e Ant
roph
ocen
e. Th
e mod
el ha
s bee
n cr
iticiz
ed fo
r plac
ing t
he ec
onom
y in
the c
entre
, how
ever
, bein
g rep
rese
nted
in th
e inn
er ci
rcle
refe
rs to
ec
onom
ies as
a su
bsys
tem
, exp
licitl
y plac
ed in
to a
socia
l-eco
logica
l/bios
pher
e per
spec
tive.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: O
ppos
ing,
but s
trong
ly re
lated
earli
er m
odel:
com
pone
nt p
arts
of p
rice:
land
-labo
ur-c
apita
l (Sm
ith 17
76).
Insp
iratio
n fo
r thi
s mod
el: Th
e Eco
nom
ics o
f the
Com
ing S
pace
ship
Earth
(Bou
lding
1966
); Ec
ology
: A B
ridge
Bet
ween
Scie
nce a
nd
Socie
ty (O
dum
1975
); Ec
ology
and
Our
End
ange
red
Life
-Sup
port
Syste
ms (
Odu
m 19
89);
For T
he C
omm
on G
ood:
Red
irect
ing t
he E
cono
my
towa
rd C
omm
unity
, the
Env
ironm
ent,
and
a Sus
tain
able
Futu
re (D
aly &
Cob
b 19
89).
No m
an is
an is
land,
Entir
e of i
tself;
Eve
ry m
an is
a pie
ce of
the
cont
inent
, A pa
rt of
the m
ain. –
John
Don
ne
We a
ll ar
e pa
rt of
the
bios
pher
e
NAT
URE
SOC
IETY
ECO
NO
MY
Illustration: J Lokrantz/Azote. Funded by Beijer and SRC.
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MO
DEL
: Lot
ka-V
olter
ra
PURP
OSE
: The
mod
el wa
s ind
epen
dent
ly de
velop
ed b
y A.J.
Lot
ka (1
925)
and
V. V
olter
ra (1
926)
to
analy
se th
e int
erac
tion
of a
pred
ator
and
a pre
y spe
cies o
ver t
ime.
IMPA
CT:
The e
arly
mod
el hi
ghlig
hted
that
chan
ges i
n on
e pop
ulatio
n or
syste
m m
ight a
ffect
a de
pend
ent s
yste
m an
d vic
e ver
sa, in
wha
t we n
ow ca
ll a lin
k or f
eedb
ack.
It als
o fo
stere
d th
e use
of
diff
eren
tial e
quat
ions i
n de
scrib
ing t
he d
ynam
ics o
f eco
logica
l sys
tem
s. Th
is m
etho
d wa
s lat
er
trans
ferre
d to
econ
omic
syste
ms t
o an
alyse
the i
nter
actio
ns b
etwe
en tw
o in
dustr
ial se
ctor
s.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: Th
e 198
9 Ar
diti-G
inzb
urg m
odel
prov
ides a
sim
pler a
ltern
ative
des
cript
ion o
f ob
serv
ed p
reda
tor-
prey
dyn
amics
. Ana
logou
s mod
els w
ere d
evelo
ped
inde
pend
ently
in ec
onom
ics to
de
mon
strat
e the
relat
ionsh
ip be
twee
n wa
ges a
nd em
ploym
ent (
Goo
dwin
1967
).
The w
orld
is
dyna
mic
The s
nake
whic
h can
not c
ast i
ts sk
in ha
s to d
ie. A
s well
the
mind
s whic
h are
prev
ente
d fro
m ch
angin
g the
ir op
inion
s; th
ey
ceas
e to b
e mind
. –Fr
iedric
h N
ietzs
che
If no
thing
ever
chan
ged,
ther
e’d be
no bu
tterfl
ies.
–Unk
nown
Illustration: E Wikander/Azote. Funded by Beijer and SRC.
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MO
DEL
: Sm
all w
orld
netw
ork m
odel
PURP
OSE
: The
mod
el sh
ows h
ow ev
eryb
ody i
s con
nect
ed to
ever
ybod
y else
in th
e wor
ld. W
e ar
e not
conn
ecte
d dir
ectly
, but
rath
er b
y the
conn
ectio
ns o
f the
conn
ectio
ns w
e hav
e with
peo
ple
in o
ur n
etwo
rk. T
his l
eads
to th
e com
mon
sayin
g, “It
’s a s
mall
wor
ld!” w
hen
stran
gers
reali
ze th
ey
shar
e a co
mm
on fr
iend.
IMPA
CT:
The i
nter
actio
n be
twee
n pe
ople
can
be d
escr
ibed
usin
g a n
etwo
rk, w
hich
high
light
s th
e crit
ical r
ole th
at th
e stru
ctur
e of n
eighb
orho
od in
tera
ction
s has
on
our s
ociet
y’s fu
nctio
n. In
ge
nera
l net
work
stru
ctur
e is i
mpo
rtant
in ap
prec
iatin
g how
com
plex s
yste
ms f
unct
ion.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: S
cale
free n
etwo
rks,
rand
om n
etwo
rks a
nd p
lanar
net
work
s. Al
so re
lates
to
Erd
ős n
umbe
r, Ke
vin B
acon
gam
e and
small
wor
ld ph
enom
enon
(Wat
ts &
Stro
gatz
1998
).
The w
orld
is sm
all
El m
undo
es un
pañu
elo. –
Refrá
n ib
eroa
mer
icano
It’s a
small
wor
ld af
ter a
ll.
–She
rman
Bro
ther
s 196
5
It’s a
small
wor
ld, so
be ca
refu
l wh
at yo
u say
. –Je
ssica
Klem
ann,
Fo
rbes
Illustration: Calendar creators
MAR
CH 2
015
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ND
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5
MO
DEL
: Fold
bifu
rcat
ion
PURP
OSE
: It i
s eas
y to
thin
k tha
t the
stat
e of a
syste
m ch
ange
s sm
ooth
ly wi
th a
chan
ge in
its d
river
. Fold
bifu
rcat
ions s
how
that
the s
tate
of a
syste
m ca
n, h
owev
er,
chan
ge ab
rupt
ly ev
en af
ter a
very
small
chan
ge in
its d
river
. Hen
ri Po
inca
ré, a
Fre
nch
mat
hem
atici
an, w
as th
e first
to in
trodu
ce an
d stu
dy b
ifurc
ation
s bac
k in
1885
, sho
wing
th
at in
dyn
amic
syste
ms e
ven
a sm
all sm
ooth
chan
ge in
a pa
ram
eter
can
caus
e a su
dden
qu
alita
tive c
hang
e in
the s
yste
m’s
beha
viour
.
IMPA
CT:
Fold
bifu
rcat
ions a
re a
com
mon
mod
el of
regim
e shi
fts, s
ince
they
can
prod
uce
large
, abr
upt c
hang
es th
at ar
e diffi
cult
to re
verse
: in o
ther
wor
ds, h
yste
resis
(Sch
effer
et
al. 2
001;
Sche
ffer &
Car
pent
er 2
003)
. For
exam
ple, d
efor
esta
tion
could
trigg
er
an ir
reve
rsible
shift
to sa
vann
a. Be
caus
e of h
yste
resis
, it is
a ru
le of
thum
b fro
m th
e m
anag
emen
t per
spec
tive t
hat i
t is e
asier
and
chea
per t
o pr
even
t reg
ime s
hifts
than
to
resto
re sh
ifted
socia
l-eco
logica
l sys
tem
s, as
embo
died
in th
e folk
sayin
g ‘A
stitc
h in
tim
e sa
ves n
ine’.
Reg
ime s
hifts
and
their
impli
cit th
inkin
g of n
on-li
near
surp
rises
are a
majo
r fo
unda
tion
of re
silien
ce th
inkin
g.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: B
ifurc
ation
theo
ry, C
atas
troph
e the
ory,
Cha
os th
eory
The w
orld
chan
ges
abru
ptly
A sti
ch in
tim
e sav
es ni
ne. –
Anon
ymou
s
Illustr
ation
: E W
ikand
er/A
zote
. Fun
ded
by B
eijer
and
SRC
.
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3
Shar
e you
r wor
ld!
Sket
ch yo
ur o
wn m
odel
that
refle
cts h
ow th
e wor
ld is
seen
diff
eren
tly (i
f you
like i
n th
e field
belo
w). T
ake a
pict
ure o
f it
and
shar
e it w
ith th
e oth
er m
odel
calen
dar o
wner
s at o
ur
mod
eling
calen
dar w
ebsit
e: m
odelc
alend
ar.b
logsp
ot.se
.
How
? Sen
d an
to: m
ymay
mod
el.20
15@
blogg
er.co
m
with
the t
itle o
f you
r mod
el as
subje
ct o
f the
. Atta
ch
your
mod
el, i.e
. pict
ure o
r dra
wing
. You
can
inclu
de a
desc
riptio
n in
the b
ody o
f the
if yo
u lik
e. H
ave a
look
he
re fo
r ins
pirin
g exa
mple
s: m
odelc
alend
ar.b
logsp
ot.se
.
The w
orld
is
seen
di
ffere
ntly
Ther
e are
no fa
cts,
only
inter
pret
ation
s. –F
riedr
ich
Niet
zsch
e
We c
an co
mpla
in be
caus
e ro
se bu
shes
have
thor
ns, o
r re
joice
beca
use t
horn
bush
es
have
rose
s. –A
brah
am
Linc
oln
Illustration: Calendar creators
mode
lcalen
dar.b
logspo
t.se
Shar
e you
r worl
d !
MAY
201
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Reso
urce
s
Birth
sPopulation
Food
per c
apita
Pollu
tion
Services per capita
Indu
strial
out
put
per
capit
a
Deaths
MO
DEL
: Wor
ld3 (T
he L
imits
to G
rowt
h)
PURP
OSE
: Wor
ld3 (M
eado
ws et
al. 1
972)
is a
syste
m d
ynam
ics m
odel
which
sim
ulate
s the
inte
ract
ions
betw
een
popu
lation
and
indu
strial
grow
th, f
ood
prod
uctio
n an
d bio
phys
ical li
mits
of t
he E
arth
. The
pu
rpos
e of t
he m
odel
was t
o ex
plore
how
expo
nent
ial ec
onom
ic an
d po
pulat
ion gr
owth
inte
ract
s with
fini
te
reso
urce
s, an
d to
obs
erve
how
certa
in ke
y var
iables
(wor
ld po
pulat
ion, in
dustr
ialisa
tion,
poll
ution
, foo
d pr
oduc
tion
and
reso
urce
dep
letion
) cha
nge o
nce t
hey r
each
the l
imits
to gr
owth
. The
mod
el as
sum
es th
at
the w
orld
has b
iophy
sical
limits
that
are fi
nite
, and
that
ther
e are
ther
efor
e lim
its to
grow
th.
IMPA
CT:
The W
orld3
mod
el ch
allen
ged
the s
tatu
s quo
of t
he gr
owth
par
adigm
and
had
a sign
ifica
nt
impa
ct o
n th
e ser
ious u
ptak
e of e
nviro
nmen
tal is
sues
. The
boo
k ‘Li
mits
to G
rowt
h’, in
whi
ch th
e mod
el an
d its
impli
catio
ns w
as p
rese
nted
, was
a m
ilesto
ne fo
r foc
usin
g rigo
rous
deb
ate o
n lin
kage
s bet
ween
nat
ural,
ec
onom
ic, an
d en
viron
men
tal f
acto
rs. Th
e mod
el, w
hich
in so
me c
ircles
was
cont
rove
rsial
(Cole
et al
. 197
3),
coun
tere
d th
e bas
ic as
sum
ption
that
grow
th is
alwa
ys go
od.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: P
lanet
ary b
ound
aries
, Mes
arov
ic/Pe
stel m
odel,
Bar
iloch
e mod
el, M
OIR
A m
odel,
SA
RU m
odel,
FU
GI m
odel,
UN
wor
ld m
odel
The o
rigin
al pr
oject
ions o
f the
Lim
its to
Gro
wth
mod
el ex
tend
ed to
the
year
210
0 (ti
me s
cale
1900
-210
0), m
odifi
ed fr
om H
all an
d D
ay (2
009)
.
Ther
e are
no lim
its to
grow
th an
d hum
an pr
ogre
ss wh
en m
en an
d wom
en ar
e fre
e to
follo
w th
eir dr
eam
s. –
Rona
ld R
eaga
n
You m
ay be
able
to fo
ol th
e vot
ers b
ut no
t the
atm
osph
ere.
–Don
ella M
eado
ws
http
://yo
utu.
be/b
qz3R
1NpX
zM
Ther
e are
lim
itsIllustration: Calendar creators
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E 20
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5
MO
DEL
: Con
way’s
gam
e of l
ife (G
ardn
er 19
70)
PURP
OSE
: The
mod
el is
a suc
cess
ful r
epre
sent
ation
of a
hyp
othe
tical
mac
hine
that
can
build
copie
s of i
tself
(a p
roble
m p
osed
by t
he
mat
hem
atici
an Jo
hn vo
n N
eum
ann
in th
e 194
0’s).
Fou
r rule
s app
lied
itera
tively
to ea
ch ce
ll on
a grid
can
prod
uce r
ecur
rent
stru
ctur
es.
IMPA
CT:
The ‘
Gam
e of l
ife’ is
fam
ous a
s it s
hows
how
com
plex p
atte
rns c
an em
erge
from
sim
ple ru
les. I
t is o
ne ex
ample
of ‘
cellu
lar au
tom
ata’
(CA:
grid
cells
follo
w ru
les th
at d
epen
d on
th
e sta
tes o
f the
ir ne
ighbo
rs). C
A ar
e app
lied
to a
rang
e of r
eal li
fe p
heno
men
a, su
ch as
the
rise a
nd fa
ll of s
ociet
ies an
d pa
ttern
s on
seas
hells
, and
serv
e as a
n ex
ample
of e
mer
genc
e and
se
lf-or
gani
satio
n. Th
e fac
t tha
t sim
ple ru
les ca
n re
sult
in co
mple
x pat
tern
s rela
tes t
o ‘m
ore i
s diff
eren
t’ by
indic
atin
g tha
t int
erac
tions
bet
ween
one
kind
of u
nit (
micr
o-lev
el/in
dividu
als)
may
resu
lt in
unf
ores
een
patte
rns a
t ano
ther
leve
l (m
acro
/gro
up) w
ithou
t any
obv
ious c
ausa
l ex
plana
tion.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: S
chell
ing’s
mod
el of
spat
ial se
greg
ation
(Sch
ellin
g 196
9), M
ayaS
im (H
eckb
ert 2
013)
, Floc
king,
herd
s and
sc
hools
- m
ovem
ent m
odels
(Rey
nolds
1987
)
*And
erso
n (19
72)
Mor
e is d
iffer
ent*
The w
hole
is m
ore t
han t
he su
m of
its p
arts.
–Ar
istot
le
Illustr
ation
: Cale
ndar
crea
tors
JULY
201
5M
ON
DAY
TUES
DAY
WED
NES
DAY
THU
RSD
AYFR
IDAY
SATU
RDAY
SUN
DAY
2930
12
34
5
67
89
1011
12
1314
1516
1718
19
2021
2223
2425
26
2728
2930
311
2
MO
DEL
: Lor
enz A
ttrac
tor
PURP
OSE
: In
1963
, Edw
ard
Lore
nz d
evelo
ped
a sim
ple m
athe
mat
ical
mod
el fo
r atm
osph
eric
conv
ectio
n. Th
e out
put o
f his
mod
el tu
rned
ou
t to
be ex
trem
ely se
nsiti
ve to
initi
al co
nditi
ons.
A tin
y cha
nge i
n th
e fou
rth d
ecim
al pla
ce le
d to
a hu
ge ch
ange
in p
redic
tions
abou
t the
fu
ture
stat
e of t
he at
mos
pher
e in
the m
odel.
The L
oren
z attr
acto
r is a
plo
t of t
he sy
stem
’s lon
g-te
rm d
ynam
ics.
IMPA
CT:
The L
oren
z attr
acto
r was
a m
ajor t
rigge
r for
the
deve
lopm
ent o
f cha
os th
eory
and
the c
ollap
se in
the N
ewto
nian
be
lief o
f a p
redic
table
cloc
kwor
k uni
verse
. Eve
n if
the r
ules o
f a
syste
m ar
e com
plete
ly kn
own,
the s
yste
m’s
futu
re ca
n be
effec
tively
un
pred
ictab
le, b
ecau
se ac
cura
te p
redic
tion
would
requ
ire in
put
info
rmat
ion o
f infi
nite
accu
racy
.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: Th
e but
terfl
y effe
ct, C
haos
theo
ry
The w
orld
can
be
unpr
edict
able
Pred
iction
is ve
ry di
fficu
lt, es
pecia
lly ab
out t
he fu
ture
. –At
tribu
ted
to va
rious
, inclu
ding
Niel
s Boh
r and
Mar
k Twa
in
Illustr
ation
: E W
ikand
er/A
zote
. Fun
ded
by B
eijer
and
SRC
.
AUG
UST
201
5M
ON
DAY
TUES
DAY
WED
NES
DAY
THU
RSD
AYFR
IDAY
SATU
RDAY
SUN
DAY
2728
2930
311
2
34
56
78
9
1011
1213
1415
16
1718
1920
2122
23
2425
2627
2829
30
311
23
45
6
MO
DEL
: Pan
arch
y (in
spire
d by
the a
dapt
ive cy
cle).
The a
dapt
ive cy
cle is
a m
odel
of ad
aptiv
e cha
nge.
Pana
rchy
capt
ures
the a
dapt
ive an
d ev
olutio
nary
nat
ure o
f nes
ted
adap
tive c
ycles
.
PURP
OSE
: Pan
arch
y (G
unde
rson
& H
ollin
g 200
1) he
lps u
s und
ersta
nd in
tera
ction
s acr
oss s
cales
of s
pace
and
time i
n co
mple
x ada
ptive
sy
stem
s. Th
e mod
el is
used
to d
escr
ibe tr
ansit
ions i
n sy
stem
beh
aviou
r and
capt
ures
how
the s
yste
m is
susta
ined
as w
ell as
how
the s
yste
m
evolv
es. T
he ad
aptiv
e cyc
le is
com
pose
d of
four
dist
inct
pha
ses:
the r
-pha
se (e
xploi
tatio
n) sl
owly
accu
mula
tes c
apita
l and
conn
ecte
dnes
s to
the K
-pha
se (c
onse
rvat
ion),
which
even
tuall
y lea
ds to
the Ω
pha
se (c
reat
ive d
estru
ction
) and
quic
kly re
orga
nize
s in
the α
-pha
se (e
ngin
e of
varie
ty).
It is
also
poss
ible t
o th
ink o
f int
erco
nnec
ted
adap
tive c
ycles
acro
ss sp
ace a
nd ti
me (
as se
en in
the fi
gure
).
IMPA
CT:
Pan
arch
y cha
lleng
es tr
aditi
onal
hier
arch
y the
ory i
n ec
ology
and
has b
een
used
as a
heur
istic
aid in
socia
l-eco
logica
l sys
tem
s an
alysis
. The
cycli
cal b
ehav
ior ex
empli
fied
in p
anar
chy p
rovid
es an
alte
rnat
ive to
linea
r con
cept
ions o
f sys
tem
beh
avior
.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: A
dapt
ive m
anag
emen
t (H
ollin
g 197
8; W
alter
s 198
6), T
he ad
aptiv
e cyc
le (G
unde
rson
& H
ollin
g 200
1)
The w
orld
is ad
aptin
gIt
is no
t the
stro
nges
t or t
he m
ost i
ntell
igent
who
will
survi
ve
but t
hose
who
can b
est m
anag
e cha
nge.
– Ch
arles
Dar
win
Illustr
ation
: E W
ikand
er/A
zote
. Fun
ded
by B
eijer
and
SRC
.
SEPT
EMBE
R 20
15M
ON
DAY
TUES
DAY
WED
NES
DAY
THU
RSD
AYFR
IDAY
SATU
RDAY
SUN
DAY
311
23
45
6
78
910
1112
13
1415
1617
1819
20
2122
2324
2526
27
2829
301
23
4
MO
DEL
: Pris
oner
’s dil
emm
a
PURP
OSE
: The
Pris
oner
’s D
ilem
ma (
PD) i
s a ga
me t
hat i
s de
signe
d to
show
that
indiv
iduals
may
not
coop
erat
e eve
n if
it is
in th
eir b
est i
nter
ests
to d
o so
. Bot
h pa
rticip
atin
g ind
ividu
als
choo
se th
e stra
tegy
that
help
s the
m to
avoid
their
leas
t pr
efer
red
outc
ome.
This
strat
egy c
anno
t, ho
weve
r, lea
d to
an
optim
al ou
tcom
e for
bot
h in
dividu
als si
mult
aneo
usly.
IMPA
CT:
PD
was
use
d to
expla
in h
ow co
oper
ation
evolv
es
in h
uman
socie
ty. C
ompe
tition
and
coop
erat
ion ar
ise
from
the c
ombin
ation
of s
trate
gies c
hose
n by
indiv
iduals
. Re
peat
ing t
he P
D ga
me c
an le
ad to
out
com
es in
whi
ch
indiv
iduals
achi
eve c
oope
ratio
n. F
urth
erm
ore,
it he
lps to
ide
ntify
mec
hani
sms (
agre
emen
ts/in
stitu
tions
or t
rust)
that
ar
e cru
cial f
or h
avin
g ind
ividu
als ch
oose
stra
tegie
s tha
t lea
d to
a gr
oup
optim
um. T
hese
mec
hani
sms w
ere e
xplor
ed in
the
trage
dy o
f the
com
mon
s situ
ation
, exp
ress
ed as
pris
oner
’s dil
emm
a gam
es (O
strom
1990
).
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: Tr
aged
y of t
he co
mm
ons (
Har
din
1968
); Ite
rate
d pr
isone
r’s d
ilem
ma (
Axelr
od 19
84);
Spat
ial
priso
ner’s
dile
mm
a (N
ovak
& M
ay 19
92)
Peop
le co
oper
ate,
so
met
imes
The m
ost p
ower
ful f
orce
ever
know
n on t
his pl
anet
is hu
man
coop
erat
ion –
a fo
rce f
or co
nstru
ction
and
destr
uctio
n. –J
onat
han
Haid
t
Illustr
ation
: E W
ikand
er/A
zote
. Fun
ded
by B
eijer
and
SRC
.
OCT
OBE
R 20
15M
ON
DAY
TUES
DAY
WED
NES
DAY
THU
RSD
AYFR
IDAY
SATU
RDAY
SUN
DAY
2829
301
23
4
56
78
910
11
1213
1415
1617
18
1920
2122
2324
25
2627
2829
3031
1
MO
DEL
: Pat
hway
s (Le
ach
et al
. 201
0)
PURP
OSE
: Pat
hway
s map
out
futu
re tr
aject
ories
. The
y are
co
ncep
tual
mod
els o
f the
dire
ction
s in
which
inte
rcon
nect
ed
socia
l, tec
hnolo
gical
and
envir
onm
enta
l sys
tem
s cou
ld co
-evo
lve
over
tim
e. Th
e pat
hway
s app
roac
h em
phas
ises t
he co
mple
x, no
n-lin
ear i
nter
actio
ns th
at o
ccur
in th
ese s
yste
ms,
inclu
ding t
he
depe
nden
ce o
f fut
ure p
athw
ays o
n pa
st hi
story
.
IMPA
CT:
The p
athw
ays a
ppro
ach
has e
ncou
rage
d a f
ocus
on
how
differ
ent a
ctor
s in
a sys
tem
can
value
the s
ame p
athw
ays
dram
atica
lly d
iffer
ently
, and
can
even
imag
ine f
unda
men
tally
ne
w po
ssibl
e pat
hway
s. Th
e pat
hway
s app
roac
h as
ks u
s to
reco
gnise
susta
inab
ility a
s a p
olitic
al te
rm.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: H
istor
ical in
stitu
tiona
lism
, Wad
dingt
on’s
epige
netic
land
scap
es, D
evelo
pmen
t tra
jecto
ries,
Scen
ario
thin
king (
MA,
IPC
C),
Regim
e shi
fts, C
ritica
l tra
nsiti
ons,
Ball a
nd
cup
diagr
am
The w
orld
has
m
any p
ossib
le fu
ture
s If
you r
ide to
the l
eft,
you w
ill los
e you
r hor
se; if
you r
ide to
the r
ight,
you w
ill los
e you
r hea
d. –
Russ
ian fo
lk ta
les
Whe
n you
com
e to a
fork
in th
e roa
d, ta
ke it
. –Yo
gi Be
rra
Insp
ired
by S
tirlin
g (20
12)
Illustr
ation
: Cale
ndar
crea
tors
NO
VEM
BER
2015
MO
ND
AYTU
ESD
AYW
EDN
ESD
AYTH
URS
DAY
FRID
AYSA
TURD
AYSU
ND
AY26
2728
2930
311
23
45
67
8
910
1112
1314
15
1617
1819
2021
22
2324
2526
2728
29
301
23
45
6
MO
DEL
: Hom
o eco
nom
icus
PURP
OSE
: The
Hom
o eco
nom
icus m
odel
aims t
o de
scrib
e eco
nom
ic de
cision
s. Th
e cha
ract
erist
ics o
f Hom
o ec
onom
icus a
re:
1. co
mple
te kn
owled
ge: k
nowi
ng al
l the
re is
to kn
ow ab
out a
task
’s en
viron
men
t; 2.
bein
g a m
axim
iser:
a driv
e to
obta
in th
e high
est p
ossib
le ut
ility f
or o
nese
lf;
3. be
ing s
elf-in
tere
sted:
carin
g onl
y for
per
sona
l con
sum
ption
, wor
k and
leisu
re.
IMPA
CT:
The H
omo e
cono
micu
s mod
el ha
d an
d sti
ll has
a hu
ge im
pact
by b
eing b
oth
usef
ul an
d wr
ong.
Usef
ul be
caus
e the
sim
plicit
y of t
he m
odel
allow
ed p
eople
to th
ink,
reas
on, d
esign
poli
cies a
nd an
ticipa
te ec
onom
ic be
havio
ur. T
he in
fluen
ce o
f neo
class
ical e
cono
mics
show
s how
good
an in
itial
appr
oxim
ation
this
mod
el is
of
econ
omic
beha
viour
. The
wro
ngne
ss re
lates
to th
e ina
bility
of t
his m
odel
to d
escr
ibe d
ecisi
on-m
akin
g out
side o
f m
arke
t set
tings
. The
(ab)
use o
f thi
s mod
el/re
ason
ing o
utsid
e its
origi
nal s
cope
evok
ed an
d co
ntin
ues t
o ev
oke b
ig dis
cuss
ions i
n sc
ience
, bec
ause
it ca
n lea
d to
serio
us m
islea
ding c
onse
quen
ces (
Gin
tis 2
000)
.
RELA
TED
MO
DEL
S: (B
ound
ed) R
ation
al ac
tor m
odel
(Sim
on 19
55),
Mod
el So
cial A
gent
(Car
ley &
New
ell
1994
), Ho
mo r
ecipr
ocan
s, Ho
mo p
sych
ologic
us.
All m
odels
are w
rong
but s
ome a
re u
sefu
l*Da
ta w
ithou
t mod
els ar
e jus
t num
bers.
–Un
know
n
Rem
embe
r, alw
ays,
that
ever
ythin
g you
know
, and
ever
ythin
g eve
ryon
e kno
ws, is
only
a m
odel.
Get
your
mod
el ou
t the
re w
here
it ca
n be v
iewed
. Inv
ite ot
hers
to ch
allen
ge yo
ur
assu
mpt
ions a
nd ad
d the
ir ow
n. –D
onell
a Mea
dows
It is
not f
rom
the b
enev
olenc
e of t
he bu
tche
r, th
e bre
wer,
or th
e bak
er th
at w
e exp
ect o
ur
dinne
r, bu
t fro
m th
eir re
gard
to th
eir ow
n int
eres
t. –A
dam
Sm
ith
Illustration: E Wikander/Azote. Funded by Beijer and SRC.
*Box
& D
rape
r (19
87)
DEC
EMBE
R 20
15M
ON
DAY
TUES
DAY
WED
NES
DAY
THU
RSD
AYFR
IDAY
SATU
RDAY
SUN
DAY
301
23
45
6
78
910
1112
13
1415
1617
1819
20
2122
2324
2526
27
2829
3031
12
3
If yo
u ar
e won
derin
g wha
t a m
odel
is…
A M
OD
EL IS
A S
IMPL
IFIE
D
REPR
ESEN
TATI
ON
OF
A RE
AL-
WO
RLD
PH
ENO
MEN
ON
.
REFE
REN
CES
Ande
rson,
P.W
., 197
2. M
ore i
s diff
eren
t. Sc
ience
, 177
(404
7), p
p.39
3–39
6.
Ardit
i, R. &
Gin
zbur
g, L.
R., 1
989.
Cou
pling
in P
reda
tor-
Prey
Dyn
amics
: Rat
io-D
epen
denc
e. J.T
heor
.Bi
ol., 1
39, p
p.31
1–32
6.
Axelr
od, R
., 198
4. Th
e Evo
lution
of C
oope
ratio
n. N
ew Yo
rk: B
asic
Book
s.
Bould
ing,
K.E.
, 196
6. Th
e Eco
nom
ics o
f the
Com
ing S
pace
ship
Earth
. In
H. J
arre
tt, ed
. Env
ironm
enta
l Q
ualit
y in a
Gro
wing
Eco
nom
y. Ba
ltim
ore,
MD
: Res
ourc
es fo
r the
Fut
ure/
John
s Hop
kins U
nive
rsity
Pr
ess.
Box,
G.E
.P. &
Dra
per,
N.R
., 198
7. E
mpir
ical M
odel-
Build
ing an
d Res
pons
e Sur
face
s. H
obok
en: W
iley.
Carle
y, K.
& N
ewell
, A., 1
994.
The n
atur
e of t
he so
cial a
gent
. The
Jour
nal o
f Mat
hem
atica
l Soc
iolog
y, 19
(4),
pp.2
21–2
62.
Cole,
H.S
.D. e
t al.,
1973
. Mod
els of
Doo
m: A
Crit
ique o
f the
Lim
its to
Gro
wth.
New
York
: Uni
verse
Pu
blish
ing.
Daly
, H. &
Cob
b, J.
B.J.,
1989
. For
the C
omm
on G
ood:
Red
irect
ing th
e Eco
nom
y Tow
ard C
omm
unity
, the
En
viron
men
t and
a Su
staina
ble F
utur
e. Bo
ston:
Bea
con
Pres
s.
Folke
, C., 1
990.
Eva
luatio
n of e
cosy
stem
life-
supp
ort i
n rela
tion t
o salm
on an
d wet
land e
xploi
tatio
n. St
ockh
olm U
nive
rsity
.
Gar
dner
, M., 1
970.
Mat
hem
atica
l gam
es: T
he fa
ntas
tic co
mbin
ation
s of J
ohn
Conw
ay’s
new
solit
aire
gam
e “Li
fe.”
Scien
tific A
mer
ican,
223(
4), p
p.120
–124
.
Gin
tis, H
., 200
0. B
eyon
d H
omo
econ
omicu
s: ev
idenc
e fro
m ex
perim
enta
l eco
nom
ics. E
colog
ical
Econ
omics
, 35(
3), p
p.31
1–32
2.
Goo
dwin
, R.M
., 196
7. A
grow
th cy
cle. I
n C
. H. F
einste
in, e
d. S
ocial
ism, C
apita
lism
and E
cono
mic
Grow
th. C
ambr
idge U
nive
rsity
Pre
ss.
Gun
derso
n, L
.H. &
Holl
ing,
C.S
., 200
1. Pa
narc
hy: U
nder
stand
ing Tr
ansfo
rmat
ions i
n Hum
an an
d Nat
ural
Syste
ms.
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ty an
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nsfo
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ollec
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3, p
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.
THAN
K YO
U!
Early
team
mem
bers
: Joh
an E
nqvis
t, D
aniel
Osp
ina-
Med
ina a
nd E
mm
a Sun
dströ
m. T
hank
s for
your
initi
al m
omen
tum
, any
pr
oject
nee
ds ea
rly b
eliev
ers.
Mov
ie ac
tors
: Tim
othy
Kar
pouz
oglou
and
Oliv
ia M
urza
beko
v, fo
r the
reali
stic p
erfo
rman
ce
of th
e hila
rious
misu
nder
stand
ings
mod
eller
s can
enco
unte
r. Ca
twalk
ers:
Jona
than
Don
ges,
Miri
am H
uitric
, Jea
n-Ba
ptist
e Jo
uffra
y, Jo
han
Enqv
ist, I
ngo
Fetz
er, V
anes
sa M
aste
rson,
And
rew
Mer
rie an
d La
n W
ang t
hank
s for
expr
essin
g eve
ry m
onth
in
way
s tha
t onl
y you
can.
And
than
k you
, Car
l Folk
e for
your
SES
insig
hts (
Janu
ary)
, and
Miri
am, y
ou ar
e sim
ply th
e bes
t ca
twalk
com
men
tato
r!
Lastl
y, a s
pecia
l tha
nks t
o ou
r coll
eagu
es at
Beij
er an
d SR
C fo
r all t
heir
supp
ort,
feed
back
and
enth
usias
m.
Curio
us ab
out t
he m
akin
g of?
ww
w.m
odelc
alend
ar.b
logsp
ot.se
CAL
END
AR C
REAT
ORS
INST
ITU
TIO
NAL
SU
PPO
RTTh
e rea
lisat
ion o
f thi
s cale
ndar
wou
ld no
t hav
e bee
n po
ssibl
e wi
thou
t the
fina
ncial
supp
ort o
f the
Sto
ckho
lm R
esilie
nce
Cent
re (S
RC) a
nd th
e Beij
er In
stitu
te o
f Eco
logica
l Ec
onom
ics (B
eijer
). W
e are
grat
eful
for t
he su
ppor
t to
desig
n th
e majo
rity o
f the
illus
tratio
ns (B
eijer
& S
RC) a
s we
ll as t
he la
yout
(SRC
) of t
he ca
lenda
r, wh
ich ar
e des
igned
by
Elsa
Wika
nder
and
Jerk
er L
okra
ntz a
t Azo
te.
Carolin
e Sch
ill
Kiril
l Orac
h
Patri
ck K
eys
Maja
Sch
lüter
Nan
da W
ijerm
ans
Jamila
Haider
Stuart
Kinin
mon
th
Rom
ina M
art
in
Emilie Li
ndkv
ist
Juan-C
arlos
Roc
ha
Steve L
ade
Dieg
o Gala
fassi
Therese Linda
hl
An
ne-S
ophie Crépin
