1

, ..

, ..

, , , .. , . 1996, 1998. . 6 . , . . : , . , , , , , . , , , . , . : Defensor Pacis () , , , . : . , .

2

T 7 - 2005 : 17, 106 80 , .: 210-36 32 971 / Fax: 210-36 32 634 Website: www.iaa.gr - E-mail: info@iaa.gr

: , ... : : - , , , , : : , : - : - : () : . , 10, .: 210-36 07 876, Fax: 210-36 38 489 . , (.2121/1993). , ...

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.

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, .. H 7 2005 , , , . , , , , , . , , . , , , , , , , , , . , 1, . , , , , ,

9

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NY Times, Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt, 5-7-2005, Pentagon weighs strategy change to deter terror.1

13 2005, 1756 13.190, 30.000. 212. (www.antiwar.com/casualties/ )2

10

, . . , , - - . , , . , , .. , . . . , . , , ( , [RSF], [AGJPB] [CBAI]) , .

11

, , . , , , Info-Turk. , , , , . 6 , 22 , , . , 2 , 301/2 ( 159/1 ). , , , ( ), , , . 13 2005. 27 2002 , . , . , Info-Turk Sun Workshops (Ateliers du Soleil) , .

12

, , (Turkiyede ve Avrupada Yazin), 30 . . , , 60 . , . , , . , , . 80, 90, 2000. , 69 , 9 1952 . Ege Gunesi, Sabah Postasi, Milliyet Oncu Gese Postasi Sosyal Adalet , Aksam (1964-66) Ant (1967-71). , , 50 Ant. 300 , 1971. 1974, Info-Turk, , http://.info-turk.be. Sun (Atelier du Soleil): http://www.ateliersdusoleil.be.

13

, 200 , 1982, . 10 , . , , (TGC), (AGJPB), (CBAI), (LDDH) (MRAX). , : (1965, ), , (1966, ), , (1972, ), , (1973, ), , (1983, ), , (1984, ), , (1986, ), , (1988, ). , 28 2003, . , . , (RSF) . , , , RSF, . , (AGJPB), ,

14

. . (CBAI) , , , CBAI, , , . . 23 2003 : . , , . , . . . , . , , . . o . .

15

. / .

.

, , , , . , , , , , , , , , .

17

.

11 2001: . 2.996.

. . , . : , .1 2: , , . : , - .

18

.

, D. Rumsfeld (16.10.2001): , , . , , . 3: , , , , , , , , , , . 4: , , .

11 2004: , 191 1.800 .

19

.

, , / : 1. , :

( , , , ) ( , , ... ) ( : / ).

.

2.

, : (-).

20

.

3.

, :

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21

.

, , .. ( ).

20 1995: , 12 6000

7. , : , , , , , , : n , n n . 8. , :

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22

.

9. , , : n n / n n n n .

, , : , , , , . , / .

23

.

. (integration). , - - , , , (), . , , , , - . , , . , , , , , . , ( . ), . , , , . . , , - - , /

, , ,

24

.

, ( , ...). , , , , .

.

( ) . , , . , , / . , , . Jihad ( , ), . Jihad : i) , ii) ,

25

.

iii) (Umma), (Dar al Islam) (Dar al-Harb), . -. Umma, . , ! , , . , , , , - Jihad , , , Umma, , . , , , ... , .

22 Reem Raiyshi 14 2004 Erez , .

26

.

.

, , , , , , . 1. - / - , ( , , , , , , , ). , , . 1.1. , , , , , . , , - , , , . , , -, . , . 1.2. , , , , - . , , . , , , , () () . , ...

27

.

, . , , , ... , . 1.3 , , : i) ii) iii) : i) ii) . , , , . 1.4. . , ,

.

28

.

( ) , (.. ). . , , Sharia ( ). willayiat al faqih ( ) . , . , / , , , (, , ...) - , , (.. . ). , , - . - , , ( ), .

. : 1.

, , , . . , , . . , . , , . .

29

.

19 , , 11 2001.

2.

. - , , , . , ... .

30

.

3. 3.1. , . , , . , , . 3.2. , . .. (!) , , : i) ii) iii) iv) v) vi) vii) viii) ix) x) xi) xii) xiii) , , ( ) Mortezza ( A) ( ).

4. : ) . , , .

31

.

) , , - , - . . ) , , Kleenex . , , , , .

.

1. (nuclear terrorism) (Bio-terrorism) , , , - , - - , . 2. - , , , . , ,

32

.

, , . . , , ... 3. (cyber-terrorism), , , , , . : , . , , , - .

. , , , , .5 , , , , , , , . . , - - . , , , , , , , .

33

.

3 2004: , . : 326 600 .

1.

, , . . , , , , , , ( , ) , , , . 2.

, -, - , , - 11

34

.

, , , . , :

9 2005. . .

2.1. . , , . - . . (, , , . ). . (-, semi-democratic), ,

35

.

, . , , .. , , -. 2.2. , , , , 20, - , . , , , , , , , . , . (). , , . , , , . . , . (3) : / : , / : , . , , , , , .

, .. , .

36

.

11 2001: 77 .

, : , . , , . , . , , . , . , , , ,

37

.

, . , . , , . , , , , . , , , . 2.3. 25% , . , , ( , , , ) , ( ). , , , / . , , -- . 2.4 / : , , . , , (, ) . ,

, .

38

.

. , , , . , , , , .

2015, 32%.

, , , . , , . , , , , , . .

39

.

, , , . , , , , . , . , . , , , . , , , , . . :

40

.

. ! () . , , . , , . , , , , , , , . , , , . - . , , , , , . , . , , , , - . , , , (ethnic) - (multiethnic state-factors),

41

.

, (.. - ), , , . , , . , , , , , . , .

* : 1) . , / 2) . , .

42

.

. , , 2005.1

. JCS Pub 1.02: The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence against people or property to coerce or intimidate governments or societies, often to achieve political, religious, or ideological objectives.2

. Ligue des tats arabes. Convention arabe pour la lutte contre le terrorisme. 22 avril 1998: Tout acte de violence ou menace de violence, quels quen soient les causes et les buts, commis pour mettre en uvre un projet criminel individuel ou collectif et visant semer la terreur parmi les gens ou les effrayer en leur portant atteinte ou en mettant en pril leur vie, leur libert ou leur scurit ou porter atteinte lenvironnement, lun des services publics, aux biens publics ou privs, ou les occuper ou sen emparer, ou encore mettre en danger lune des ressources nationales.3 4 5

. www.mfa.gov.tr/mfa/foreignpolicy/mainissues/terrorism

. . : Bassford, M., Mabey, N. (2005). (UK) Prime Ministers Strategy Unit (PMSU) Background Paper Countries at Risk of Instability: Future Risks of Instability PMSU (2005). Investing in Prevention. An International Strategy to Manage Risks of Instability and Improve Crisis Response.

43

/ . .

. , , , . ,

45

&

, .

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, , . , , , , , , , . , 21 . , , , , , , . , . , .

46

&

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47

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,

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48

&

, , , , . , , , , , . , , , , , . , , modus vivendi . , , , 25 1991, . , , . , - , , 1991, sui generis modus vivendi , , . , - , , .

10-12.01.05

49

&

, , . , , 10- 12 2005, , . , 10 2004, . , . 5 , .. , .

. . , (7-9/12/2004) , , , 12 .

, .

50

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, . - , , - - . , , , , , . 6 , , 7, , , . , . , , , , . , - , . , . , , , . , , , , . , , , , .8 , , , . , ,

51

&

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.

52

&

, , , , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , 70% . , , , , , , , .11 , . , , . 12 , , ,

53

&

, , , 72% .

, (Blue Stream), , 13. , , 2003 10 . 15 . .14 , , , , , .15 , , , .16 , . , , , . . 17, , 18, . , , , , .19 , , , , .20 , , . , , , , , , 72% .21 , Blue Stream, 3

54

&

, 12% .22 , 50%, 200523, . 24 , , , , . , , - , , , , .25 . -50, Be-200 , BTR-90 - 40 () .26

BTR-90, .

, 350 . .

55

&

, know-how, , , , 2004 , , , . 27 , , . , , , , .28 , - .

-50, .

, , , . , ,

56

&

. , , , , . , .29 , , . 12 , , , , , , , . , , , .30 , -, , , , .31 , , , , . , , , Black Sea Force.32 , , , . , , , . , , , 33 , .34

57

&

, , .35

, , . , , , 24 2005.36 , , , , , . , , , , , , . , ,

58

&

.37 , . , , , . , , , , . , . 38 , , . . , , .

. .

, ,

59

&

. , . , , . , 39, . . , . , 1973 , , , , . . , , , , . , vice versa. , .40 , , , , . , , . , , , , , , .41

.

60

&

, , , . , , , , , , . , , .42

- -.

, , , -50 , . ,

61

&

. 43 , , - -, . 44 , , , , . -. , , , .

17 33 2002, 1,6 , , . 2010, 3 5 , , .

,

62

&

, , , , . . sui generis , , , . , , , , , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , ( ) . , , , , .45 , , , , , , , . , , . , , , ,

63

&

. , , .46 , , O (Integration Russian Style). , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . , , .47 , , .48

.

64

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. , , . , , . , , . , , , , , .49 5 , , , . , , , - , , , , , , , . 50 , , . , , , , , , .

65

&

., : , .31, . , 2001.1

, , , 2005.2 3 4 5 6

. 29/05/2002. 1999. www.ng.ru/printed/world/2004-12-10/6_putin.html, 13/01/2005,

, Russia Today, 3, 2004, , . 2, . 9- 10 2004, .7

, Russia Today, 5, 2005, , . 3,8

: - , Russia Today, 2, 2004, , . 8-11.9

., - , , 24 2004.10

., 1960- 1991, ., ., (), , , , , .., 1993, .275.11

., 1960- 1991, ., ., (), , , , , .., 1993, .275.12 13 14 15

www.edc.spb.ru/conf2002/studenikina.htm, 22/12/2003. www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.

: - , Russia Today, 2, 2004, , . 8-11.16 17

www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.

2004 1,5 , www.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_ id=61&msg_id.html, 12/01/2005. 2004 1 , www.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=61&msg_id.html, 12/01/2005.18 19 20 21 22

www.izvestia.ru/economic/974412_print, 12/01/2005. www.ng.ru/printed/economics/2005-01-13/3_ankara.html, 13/01/2005. www.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=61&msg_id.html, 12/01/2005.

2 , 16 .

66

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23 24

www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005.

, - charter, .25 26 27 28 29

www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005. www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005. www.izvestia.ru/politics/800196_print, 12/01/2005. www.izvestia.ru/politics/800196_print, 12/01/2005.

, .30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005. www.grani.ru/Politics/World/m.70646.html, 12/01/2005. www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005. . www.grani.ru/Politics/World/m.70646.html, 12/01/2005. www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005. www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005. www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005. www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.

1972 , . ., 1960- 1991, ., ., (), , , , , .., 1993, .266.40

, 4 , 60 , 9 2005, www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.41 42 43 44

www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005. www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005.

: - , Russia Today, 2, 2004, , . 8-11.45 46

www.politcom.ru/print.php, 12/01/2005.

: , Russia Today, 2005, , . 11.47 48

www.izvestia.ru/politics/998763_print, 13/01/2005.

: , Russia Today, 2005, , . 11- 12.

67

49

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www.politcom.ru/2003/zloba3016.php, 23/09/2003, : , Russia Today, 2005, , . 12.50

www.ng.ru/printed/world/2005-01-12/6_turkish.html, 13/01/2005.

68

/.

1.

) , 2004, . ) , ( ), .

69

) , . 2.

, , . (1917), , , 1931.

1993, .

, . 80, , , , . , 1989 1993, ( 1992, 1992,

70

1993). , , , . (peacekeeping forces), . , . . : 1992 . , , 1992, , () Yeltsin. Sochi, , 27 1993. : i) ,

-

-

ii) , , , iii)

iv) , . , , , : .

71

-

, , , , , , , . , 1993, : i) ,

Ingur, .

ii) , , iii) . , , , . , . , , Ingur (. 1 2), . , ... ( U.N. Peacekeeping Operation), 1994, . 940 .. , ( ) . , : , , , ( 180 240 ). , 1994 2004, . no war no peace, .

-

72

1: Ingur.

-

, 1999 , - . , , , , , , 2004. ... .., , . , , 1999 2004, , .

-

-

73

3.

: , , , , de facto . , . Raul Khadzhimba , , Sergey Bagapsh, outsider .

Sergey Bagapsh, 12/01/05

Khadzhimba: , Bagapsh 50,08%. , . Ardzinba , ,

74

, 6 , . Bagapsh, , . , . BBC, , . , : . . , , ( ), , .

.

75

4.

: ( / regional power): , (small power), . , , : .

, .

, Bull, , . (security complex), Buzan, , . , , . , , :

2003 , , , . 4.1. : 1. , , ( ) (. 1).

76

2.

, / . , , , , . , ( narcoterrorism) , , .

3.

4.

, : , (!) . , - ( ).

, , , , , . , : ,

77

-

, , , , , , , .1

-

, .

, , , , , . , , / . , , , . , , . , , .2 , ( !) , : , ( ) , .

78

-

( ) , , . , , (power over outcome) , .. . .

-

-

.

-

, 1994,

79

, , . , , 4% (2003) , , , , 1,8% (2003) , 1998-2002 1%. , , . , , ( ) , Batumi, Gudauta Akhlkalaki , .

Sergey Bagapsh: , .

-

, , , , , : 1992-93, 70% ( 535.061 1989 145.000 1998), . , , . , , , ( ) , .

-

-

80

-

, - . , . , 1997, , , , . , , - -, - , . , , , . Sergey Bagapsh : , !

-

-

-

: 44% , 17% , 16% , 15% , 8%

81

- . , . , Sergey Bagapsh, . , : , .

-

1992-1993, , , , , (Baburin, Zatulin, Primakov, Kirienko) .

-

, . 4.2. : . ( 90) , Eduard Shevardnadze. , .

82

Eduard Shevardnadze William Cohen 1997 .

2002, Shevardnadze , . : , - , . , , . (21 2003) ..., , USAF. , .

-

-

-

83

(Shevardnadze) : ... , , . , , .

.

: , , , , , . , .

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84

(, , ). , .

, , , , : , status / , 90. , , .3 , , , , , , , Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, .

-

-

Mikheil Saakashvili, 2003, - , , , , ( ). Eduard Shevardnadze, , ( ) , ,

85

, , , , look , , , .

2 : Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

5.

, , : ) , , ) , , , ) , / / ) , ,

86

, , . , (: ) . , . , (25/11/2004) , Giorgi Baramidze , , , , .

Mikheil Saakashvili Jaap de Hoop Scheffer 7 2004

, : , , .

87

-

dtente, ( ) , , , Shevardnadze / Saakashvili.

, : , . , , , .

-

, , , ( ) , , .

88

3, , , 27 2004, . 11-12.1

, , , . Assesing Russias Decline, RAND Corporation, 2002.2

- : - , , , (-) , .3

89

Martin Packard 21 . 3 - (- 1964), .

Cyprus: The Search for a solution, (: ), , . , , . ,

91

Martin Packard

. , , , , . , , , . , , (Whitehall) .

, .

O . , , . , , . , , . , , . ,

92

Martin Packard

. , . , realpolitik.

5.

. 1990, , 30 , , , , . . . . , , - ;

93

Martin Packard

.

- , 1960, . . , . , , () , . . , 2003, , , ,

94

Martin Packard

. , . , , . , , . . , , . , , . , , 2004, . , 5 , , , . , , , - . , , , . , Whitehall . , . , , 5 , ,

95

Martin Packard

, .

, ,

, , -, , , , . , . , - , , . , , , . , , . , ( )

96

Martin Packard

. , , , . , ( , , ), . . , (George Ball) . , , . , : ;. , . , . .

Cyprus: The Search for a solution, (: ), : I.B. Tauris 2005. X +256 ., David Hannay.

97

. (. 1), , Talia Sasson 2001: (15) (46) . , . 105 , , .

99

-1

1

, , . , . , ( ). , . 8.500 21 4 .

100

-1

, (E-1) . 3.500 Maaleh Adumim . 2004 ( ) : Maaleh Adumim, Beitar Illit, Modiin Illit, Alfei Menashe, Geva Binyamin (Adam), Har Gilo, ( ): Kochav Yaakov, Neve Daniel, Efrat, Ariel, Har Adar, Givat Zeev, Nofei Prat, Carmel, Alfei Menashe (Nirit), Kedumim, Elazar, Revava, Oranit, (. 4, 6 9).

4

6 :

( 1967) ( ). , . , .

101

-1

.

Peace Now ( ). , , , . ( ) 2004. Settlement Watch Team ( ) 1990 . , . - . . , , ... . . 2004 E-1 Maaleh Adumim, . . . ...

102

-1

, . , (, ), . (. 2, 3, 5 7) (. 9). Gush Etzion, Ariel Maaleh Adumim () () .

2 &

3

. , , , 240.000 . , . 1, , (

103

-1

-) ( , . 7 9). , ( ).

5 :

7

, , Likud ( Likud) ( - ). E-1 . : .

104

-1

, . , . . , - , 2004, . , , . . , . Ariel Maaleh Adumim (. 9) . , . Maaleh Adumim 8 , Danny Tirza (. 4, 6 8). , . . Adam . (. 9). , . . . . Maaleh Adumim E-1 .

105

-1

. , .

8

, (Abu Mazen) , .

106

-1

. . Saeb Erekat E-1 . , . . Nasser al-Qidwa, 1967 .

9

107

-1 .

.

20 , . : , Yesha ( , ), , Kach, Hill Youth ( ), Gamla will not fall again ( Gamla ), Revava, Shas, National Religious Party ( ), United Torah Judaism ( ). Knesset ( ) . Gush Katif 100.000 . . ( ), . , . . . . i) Kach

- Kach2,

108

-1

, Baruch Marzel, , . Meir Kahane Kach 1971 1980. Kach . 1984 Kahane (Knesset), 1988 Kach . 1990 .

Meir Kahane

(graffiti). Kahane Chai.

Kahane Kahane Chai ( Tapuah) Kach ( Kiryat Arba). . . 1994 Kach Kahane Chai ( Kahane Binyamin Meir Kahane ) . Kach . ( ) halakha ( ).

109

-1

ii) Israeli Hill Youth ( ) Kach ( 7.400). . , 5 . . Noam Federman. ( ). , , . .

.

iii) Gamla will not fall again ( Gamla )

110

-1

1 . . , . . iv) National Religious Party Mafdal ( ) . . , . . .

- , (27.05.05).

v)

United Torah Judaism (UTJ)

.

111

-1

. vi) Shas ( Shephardi Torah Guardians) . , . Shas Ovadia Yossef.

Ovadia Yossef

vii) Revava , , . Revava Al-Aqsa . Hamas

112

-1

. , , . viii) , ( 70% 21 ) ( 55.000, 14% 25% . ). Yesha ( , ), . . : - , - Gush Emunim ( )3, - Yesha, - , - , - , - . 250.000 , . 4: i) ( ) ii) , iii) iv) ( ). . , ,

113

-1

, . Yesha . Yesha Yom Kippur, 6 . , . 1974 , , , . , Kach, .

11.01.04 .

5: 1. : , , .

114

-1

2. : - . , . : . ( Yesha), . ( , ). , . , , . Yesha . , , .

/ .

115

-1

1/6 . 6-8% Ariel. . Ehud Barak Camp David Taba.1

. Kahane Chai .2

Gush Emunim (Block [of the] faithful): . Mafdal - National Religious Party (NRP), . ( ) Neemanei Eretz Yisrael ( Those who are loyal/faithful to the land of Israel/ ).3

Yehuda Ben Meir, The Disengagement: an ideological crisis, Strategic Assessment, Vol. 7, No.4, March 2005, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University.4 5

Ibid.

116

. / .

. , , . .

117

.

( ), , , . , , , . , ( -) , (LNG). , . , , . 80 . , , . 2004, Greenstream , o , . Libyas National Oil Co. ( 7 ). Greenstream, 1 8 .. . , Gazprom o , , , * **. , , (LNG),

.

118

.

(offshore). (IEA), LNG 2030. , LNG 5 . , LNG -, 30% 7 . ( 11 . ). LNG . 2020, LNG , 50-60 . , (re-gasification): 11 , . 13 , . , , , . , , , . , , . . , , , , / . / , . , (.. , . 1, 1, 1). (Turkish Maritime Pilot Association), 1999 2002 .

119

.

, . , , .

1 -, 23.05.2005, 2009, 1 . , 1% .

. , , : 140 . 2003, 2003 80 . , , . , , 2004, tankers 3 ,

120

.

( ) . , , , .

1 . .

, , -- (BTC) (. 1 1), Azeri, Chirag Gunesli (. 2, 2 2). Azeri, , , BTC .

121

.

1 --, , .

, , , -. . , , Transneft BTC. , - [(. 1, 1, 1 3), Azeri State Oil Company] ) . Mikhail Saakashvili , 2004, -!

122

.

2 .

, . , ,

123

.

BTC, Vladimir Putin , 2004. . , . Kiykey-Ibrikhaba, ( ) Transneft 2004.1 --, BTC.

2 A A, A--.

124

.

. , , (. 4).

2 T , 60 . , M 120 . . 20.

, - .2 , , . 2002, ,

125

.

: , (consortium) . 2002 Lukoil ( ) . , . Lukoil 2002 (, Lukoil ). , 2003, Lukoil. .

3 O M-T-T , K N M P 90 M (. 4)

126

.

, : , Lukoil, .3 , . 2003, Lukoil Vagit Alekperov Vladimir Putin. . , Alekperov Transneft, , .

4 .

, 2004, Transneft Kiykey-Ibrikhaba.4 -, Kiykey Ibrikhaba , , . , . ,

127

.

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156

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158

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160

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