Παραγωγικό Μοντέλο για την Ελλάδα (Ερευνα)

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Version: 270416_1

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.................................................................................................................................................................................5

20 .............................................................................................................................................................7

A1. 1995-2007: .............................................................................9

A2. 2008: .........................................13

A3. 2009 ...................................................................................................................14

A3.1. ......................................14

A3.2. .. ................................................................................................................................15

: , , ....................................................................................................17

B1. ...............................................................................................................................................18

B2. .....................................................................................................................................23

B3. .........................................................................................................25

B4. ...................................................................................................................................27

B5. - ....................................................................................................................................29

B6. 2010-2014....................................................................................................................................................30

B7. 2014.....................................................................................................................................................34

..................36

1. ..........................................................38

1.1. .......................40

2. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................41

2.1. .................................................................................................41

2.2. ...................................................................................42

3. ....................................................................44

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.............................................................................................................................46

1. ............................................................................49

1.1. ...............................................................................................................................................49

1.2. ..............................................................55

1.3. .............................................................................................................................................61

2. ..........................................................................................................................68

2.1. ..............................................................................................................68

2.2. .....................................................................................................................74

2.3. ....................................................................................................84

2.4. ........................................87

3. .........................................................................................95

3.1. .....................................................................................................................................................95

3.2. ....................................................................................................................................105

3.3. ..............................................................................................................................................................119

3.4. , ..........................................................130

3.5. .................................................................................................................................................................................139

: ..................................................................................................................................................149

1. .................................................................................................................151

2. ................................................................................................................153

3. ...............................................................................................................................155

4. : A ........................................................157

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1. 1995-2007:

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10

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, , , ,

1. - 2000, . EC Forecasts, Spring 2011, Table 1.2. . .. Acemoglu (2006) Acemoglu (2009) - . .. Angelopoulos et al. (2009), rent seeking .

3. . .. EEAG Report, 2012, Figure 2.4, EEAG Report, 2015, Figure 1.26. , . Sinn, Rescuing Europe, 2010, Figure 8.4. . EEAG Report, 2015, Table 1.2.

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, . , , 2000 -, . , 5.

, , , , . , , , , . 2000. , . , , , . , , . , , 6.

, , , . , , . .

, , 2000 ,

5. . EC forecasts, Spring 2011, Tables 35 40, EEAG Report, 2015, Table 1.1.

6. . EC Forecasts, Winter 2015, Table 50. , . EEAG Report, 2012, Figures 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, EEAG Report, 2014, Figure 3.2 (by sector).

, , , , 2016

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, , - .

, , 2008, . , , . , , 2008, .

, , 1990 2000, , . , , , , . , , . , .., - . , , , , ( ) , 1970 .

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2008 Lehman Brothers , . , , , . , . , , , , .

, (snowball effect)7. , , , , . , 8.

, 2008 , . , . , , , , , . , .

2. 2008:

7. . EC Forecasts, 2015, Table 1.8. - . EC Forecasts, Winter 2015, Tables 36 42.

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14

(shock) , , , . /, , , 9.

, , , , , 10. , , , . , , , , 11. , , , , , , . , , , 12.

3.1.

2014 , , , 13. , , , 14.

3. 2009

9. . EEAG Report, 2015, Figures 1.1 (GDP) 1.7 (unemployment).

10. . EEAG Report, 2015, Table 1.1. 11. . EEAG Report, 2014, Figure 3.7. 12. . EEAG Report, 2014, Figure 3.12, . EEAG Report, 2015, Table 1.2.

13. . EEAG Report, 2015. 14. . The Economist, October 25, 2014.

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2015 .., , , : () . () , . () , . () . () , 15.

, , , . , ( , capital exporting countries) , ( , capital importing countries) . , , .. , (.. ), , (.. ).

3.2. ..

, , , , , , . , , . , . , . , , . (capital flight) ,

15. . EEAG Report on the European Economy 2015.

, , , , 2016

16

. , , . .

, , , , , . , , (EC), (ECB) (IMF). , , , . , , , , .

(bailout) 2010, 2012 2015. , 2010, 2011 2013, . 2012, . ( ), , , . , , 16.

( ) , . , .

16. - (Memoranda of Understanding) . EMU Public Finances, 2013, pp. 16-17.

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, , . . 2010, , 2001, . , , , , .

2001 , , , . , ..., . 1996-2007, , 3,9%, 2,3% ( 2.1). , , , .

1.

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, , , ( ). , 2.2, 2000 , 2008 14,5% 17.

2.1:

: Eurostat

2.2: (% )

: IMF World Economic Outlook 2015

17. , 1985 -, 6,5% .

E

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1

2

3

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5

6

7

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, 2.3, , , , , , , . 2002, , 2009 15,2% . , 2009 10,2% , . 2008-2010, . , , 127% ( 2.4) ( 2.5).

2.3: (% )

: Eurostat

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-4

-2

0

2

4

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, , , , 2016

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2.4: , 1995-2010 (% )

: Eurostat, Statistical Annex of the European Economy 2015

2.5: , 1995-2009 (% )

: Eurostat, Statistical Annex of the European Economy 2015

20022000 2004 2006 200820032001 2005 2007 200919981996 199919971995

95 92 89 89

100 100 9894 95

107 103 103109

127

0

20

40

60

80

100

140

120

93

20022000 2004 2006 200820032001 2005 2007 200919981996 199919971995

36 36 3740

44

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6165

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8693

102

114117

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20

40

60

80

100

140

120

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2010 , , . , . , , (2010, 2012 2015). . , . , . , , , (liquidity). , . (solvency). , . 300 . ( Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009)18.

18. , 2012 - ( Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009).

, , , , 2016

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, , , , , . ; , 19.

, . , ( 2.6). 10,2% 2009, , 0,4% . , -, . , , 16,2%, - .. 2009-2014, 2.720.

2.

19. - , . ., , Christodoulakis (2015), Galenianos (2015), Ioannides and Pissarides (2015), Arghyrou (2015) Pelagidis and Mitsopoulos (2016).

20. , - - .

, , , , 2016

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2.6: , 2009-2014 (% )

2.7: , 2009-2014 (% )

: Eurostat

: European Commission, AMECO database

.. (28)

(19)

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-4 1 6 11 16

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, , , ( ), . , , 14,5% 2008, 2013 0,6% ( 2.8). 1948 .

2.8: (% )

: IMF World Economic Outlook 2015

3.

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-3,5

-4,9

-4,1

-5,1

-7,5-6,9

-6,3

-6,4

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-7,4

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0,90,6

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-14,0

-16,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

2,0

0

, , , , 2016

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: Eurostat IMF World Economic Outlook 2015

2.9: (2005-2014)

Eurostat, 2010-2014, 11%, 10%. , , () 2014 .

2006 20082005 2007 2009 2011 20132010 2012 201480

100

120

140

160

, , , , 2016

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, , . , . 2010 . , . , , (OECD 2013a, 2014, 2015) , . , 2015, 2007-2014, , (2007-2009) . , 2010-2014, .

4. M

, , , , 2016

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, , , , .. , Doing Business , 2009 56% , 2013 31%. Lisbon Council (2015) , , - .., .

: OECD Economic Policy Reforms 2015: Going for Growth

2.10: (2007-2014)

GR

C

PRT

IRL

NZL

JPN

GBR

SVK

ESP

NLD

MEX FIN

CAN

NOR

HUN

DEU

KOR

AUT

DNK

AUS

CHE

ITA

SWE

EUCZE

LUX

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USA

FRA

POL

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0.4

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0.7

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, - . 2008 ( ) 2013, . , ( 2.11). , ( Matsaganis and Leventi, 2014). , 7% 2008 27% 2013. ( ), 25 60%. , : , 20,1% 2008 23,1% 2013, , , 2008, 44,3% 2013. .

: IMF, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and Eurostat

2.11:

5. -O K

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

, 1992, 1987, 1997

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; , , . . 2009, , . . . Ex ante, 2010-2014 30% , . , .

: Eurostat, Ameco Database

2.12: , 2010-2014 (% )

6. 2010-2014

2013 2014201220112010

3,3

4,4

3,6

4,7

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2,9

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; . (Blanchard and Leigh, 2013), . , , , (Orphanides, 2015). 2010, , , . , , , . , timing , , , , , . , Grexit , , , , , , , , , . , , , .

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2.14: ,2006-2013 (% )

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7. 2014

, 2014, . , , , 2015 . , , , , spreads ( 2.15), .

: Bloomberg

2.15: Spread (bps)

2000

2500

3000

1500

1000

500

0.0

2/1/2008 2/1/2009 2/1/2010 2/1/2011 2/1/2012 2/1/2013 2/1/2014 2/1/2015

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2015, , (capital controls) . , , 2016. 2015 , . , 2018. 2016 .

, , , , 2016

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, , , , 2016

, , , , 2016

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(a blueprint for the rebirth of the Greek economy). , : , , . , ( ) , , . , , , .

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(fundamentals) , : () H , , , , , 2008. () H , , , FDI, 200822. 2000. () H , 23 / 24 . () H . . () H , , , , , , ( ). , , , , . () H , . () H . ()

1.

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, , , , 2016

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, , 25, - . () (institutions) (social capital). , , , , -. - , , , , , .

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, , , , . , , , , . , -, (ownership), (competition among public agencies) (.. , , ), (.. , ) ..29.

25. . , .., Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, World Economic Forum.

26. . , .., Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, World Economic Forum.27. . , .., Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, World Economic Forum.28. . , .., Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, World Economic Forum.

29. . , .., Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, World Economic Forum.

, , , , 2016

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1.1.

(institutional quality) 30. , ( ) , . . . , , , 31.

, , ( , ), / (.. ) / , (.. ). . , . . , , . , , .

30. . .. Jones (2002).31. . .. Drazen (2000).

, , , , 2016

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, , : () (ultimate targets) () - (intermediate targets) . , . , , , , .

2.1.

, : () ( ) , () , , , , , , () . , , , . : , . , ,

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2.2.

1996-2007 ( , , , , , ), ( ) 197034. , ,

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, , , , 2016

43

35. , , . , , , , 36.

, , , , , , , , , , , , ( .. Sala-i-Martin, 2010).

. , . (FDI) 37.

, .

37. , , -, .

35. - , . 16.36. , - , , , . . Aghion and Howitt (2009) Sala-i-Martin (2010).

, , , , 2016

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() ( ) ;

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() ;

() , ( ) , , ( ) . , , , , . () , , (learning by doing), . , , , , (, , ) . , () ()

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39. , . Papageorgiou and Vourvachaki (2015) Terzi (2015).

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. , , , , . . , status quo, (, 2000). , , . , , , , . .

. . , (Ioannides and Pissarides, 2015), (.. ). , , . , . , , .

, , , , 2016

49

1.1.

( ) . , . , , :

() , () ,

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, () , () , () () (European

Commission, 2010a; European Commission, 2010b).

, , .

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1.

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50

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, . , : () , . () . () , . () , . () (), . () ( ) (European Commission, 2012; European Commission, 2014a). 2016, () . ( 2014) 31% 2009-2014 ( 4.1).

, , , , 2016

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4.1:

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2012 20142011 201320102009

942.

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144

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2012-2013 (144 )

2013-2014 (148 )

2014-2015 (144 )

2015-2016 (140 )

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53

. () ( ), , . () , , . () , , , . () , , .. () , , .

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, , , , 2016

54

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55

) , , . () , ( ) , , .. () ( ) - , front-office, (, , ..) . () , .., .

1.2.

, , ( , )40 , , .

, , 41. , , , , . , , , , , , , , . , : , , .

2008, , .. ,

40. -. , , .. . , , - . 41. ., , Tabellini (2005), Angelopoulos et al. (2007), Angelopoulos et al. (2008), Cingano (2014), Afonso and Jalles (2015).

, , , , 2016

56

. , , . , , , .

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42, 2015 34,96%, , 40,30%. (direct taxes) 8,96%, (indirect taxes) 15,93%, 12,53% 13,12%, . , (social contributions) 10,22% , 14,23%43. , (VAT) , 44. , 2014 (VAT revenue ratio) 36,3%, 48,1%. , . , o o , , , 2010 , 4.3, effective tax rates , . , , , , 45.

42. . Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2015, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union.43. - - .44. - , - , (. Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2015, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union). , - , . 45. : , - (.. , , , , ) , , , - . , , . , . , , , . , . , . , , . , .

, , , , 2016

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, , , 46 , 47. , Schneider (2003) ( ) 30% 2000, rtavanis et al (2015) 45% 48.

, : () (tax fraud and evasion), () () - , (, , , ).

, : () , () () , .

4.3:

: Eurostat. effective tax rates . Papageorgiou (2014).

, , ( ). , - , , - . , , , . 46. . .. Schneider (2003) Artavanis et al. (2015). 47. . .. Matsaganis and Flevotomou (2010). 48. -. ;

2006 2008 20152007 2009 2011 20132010 2012 20140

0,05

0,1

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, , , , 2016

58

, . , , , (labour and corporate taxes), , , . , , .

2013-2014 , , , . , . , , . , . , :

() , , () () , (, , ) , (real estate). , .

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49. , -, - .

, , , , 2016

60

(impure public goods) user prices. 50, , , , , , , , . , , ( ) , / . (.. ) , , . , , , . , , 51.

, , , . - , . , . , , , .

, () , , () , .

50. . OECD (2012, Fiscal consolidation: How much, how fast and by what means?, Economic Policy Papers, no 1). 51. . .. Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2004) Aghion and Howitt (2009).

, , , , 2016

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, . .

, (R&D) . , , , .

1.3.

, , , , , . , - - :

() , , , , , , , , .() , 52 53 .() , , , , .() , , , 54 (Mitsopoulos and Pelagidis, 2010; Papaioannou, 2011; European Commission, 2011; Papaioannou and Karatza, 2015).

52. . - , - , ..53. . -, , ..54. . , , ..

, , , , 2016

62

, , (World Bank, 2014).

, , , . , , , status quo. 2011, , , , . , , , . , 2010-2014, , , (e-justice), .

(, ) , : () , () , () , , () , , (European Commission, 2012; 2014). ( ), European Justice Scoreboard (2015) 2010-2013 ( 4.1). , , , .

, , , , 2016

63

2010 2012 2013

(, 100 ) 4,0 5,8 6,2

( / ) 190 469 407

( / ) 2.003 1.520 1.148

( / %) 78,9% 57,7% 80,1%

( / %) 80,2% 143,2% 153,4%

(, 100 ) 1,7 4,3 5,6

(, 100 ) 3,7 3,5 3,1

: European Justice Scoreboard (2015)

4.1.

: () , . () , . () , . () (pilot case), . () , , (European Commission, 2012; 2014). , European Justice Scoreboard, , , . 2010-2013, , , ( 4.1).

, , , , 2016

64

2011183

2012185

2013189

2014189

2015189

( ) 90 87 98 131 132

819 819 1.300 1.580 1.580

( % ) 14,4 14,4 14,4 14,4 14,4

: World Bank (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015): 2015 (132) 2014 (131), , 155.

, , , Doing Business 2016 2015, (enforcing contracts), , 132 87 2012, (freedom of contract). , 2014 2015, 2012, 1.580 ( 4.2).

: () . () , . () , , . () . () (European Commission, 2012; 2014).

, , . , : () (e-justice), . () (e-filing) . () (e-registration) (e-tracking) (e-filing). () (European

4.2.

, , , , 2016

65

Commission, 2012; 2014). , 2015 , .

: World Economic Forum

4.4:

( 4.1 4.4). , , , .

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2014-2015 (144 )

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, , , , 2016

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() () -, (Papaioannou and Karatza, 2015) () (outsourcing) () 58.

, :() , , ,

55. . -, , ..

56. . , ..57. . , ..

58. , , ..

, , , , 2016

67

, () , , , one-stop-shop , .

, , (European Commission, 2014a).

, , , :

() () () 59.

, , (e-justice), :

() , () () .

, , , , ..

, , (.. , ..), , (Papaioannou and Karatza, 2015).

59. . , , ..

, , , , 2016

68

2.1.

. , 60. . , , , , .

, , , , , . , , , , , , , , , . , , , .

4.5-4.861, 2013 : () (Economy-wide Product Market Regulation)62, () (State control), ()

2.

60. ., , Aghion and Howitt (2009, chapter 12), Bouis and Duval ( 2011), Bourls et al. (2010), Conway et al. (2006), Nicoletti and Scarpetta (2005).

61. . Koske et al. (2015).62. : () (state control), () - (barriers to entrepreneurship) () (barriers to trade and investment).

, , , , 2016

69

(Barriers to entrepreneurship) () (Barriers to trade and investment), ( ) . , , , . ( 4.5) , .

, , . 2013 ( , ) , , . , . .

4.5: (2013)

: OECD, Product Market Regulation Database for OECD, non-OECD EU and BRIICS countries; OECD-WBG, Product Market Regulation Database for Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua and Peru.

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

, , , , 2016

70

4.6: (2013)

4.7: (2013)



3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

, , , , 2016

71

, ( ) . , , . , de facto , ( .. ). , . , , , , . , , , .

4.8: (2013)


3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

, , , , 2016

72

, .

, , . , , . , (.. , , ). .

, , , , . , , . , , , , . , , .

, . , , , , , , .

, , , , , .

, , , , 2016

73

, , . , . , , , .

, , ( ) 63. , . , .

, , , (FDI), , - . 2009 11,8% , , , 102,5%, 40,7% 45,4%, . 2012 9,9%, 157,9%, 45,1% 53,9% 64. , , , , . , , . , , , , , ..65.

64. : Eurostat.65. . Sala-i-Martin (2010).

63. . .. IMF (2013) Papageorgiou and Vourvachaki (2015).

, , , , 2016

74

2.2.

, , . , , , , . , . - , . , 90, , , . 193% 2008, 96% 1995. , , ( .., 2010). , , - 66 67, (Pagoulatos, 2014).

, 2008 2010-2015. : () . () . () . () . () . () . () ( , 2014). () , , () 2015, , . , 2008-2015

66. . , -, , , ..67. . , -, , ..

, , , , 2016

75

, , .. : (, 2015).

2008-2014 , . , : () . () ()68. () ( 2009). () , . () (), () , . () 69 (, 2015). , , 2014, ( . 3869/2010) , () () , , ( , 2015).

2008-2014 2015,

68. 20.000 100.000 . () / - .69. - (. , , ..).

, , , , 2016

76

, . , : () , , () , , , () , .

2015 ( 2015), , . , , 2015 , ( . 3869/2010). , , ,

4.9: %

: IMF (2015)

20062001 2002 2005 2007 2011 20132008 2009 20102003 2004 2012 2014 2015

5,67,4 7 7 6,3 5,4 4,6 4,7

79,1

14,4

23,3

31,933,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

36,6

, , , , 2016

77

, , , (IMF, 2015). , (2015), (non-performing exposures NPEs) , 2015, 42,1% , 39,9% 2014 ( [non-performing loans NPLs] 2014 33,8% 4.9)70, , , 2015 2 . , , , (2015), , , , () .

4.10:

70. -, (-) - 90 , - .

: ECB (2015)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 20132008 2009 2010 2012 2014

: :

: 5 (%) ()

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

100

%

, , , , 2016

78

, , 2008. , 2014 41 66 2008, 21 ( 36 2008) 20 ( 30 2008). , , . , 2014 94% 70% 2008 ( 4.10). , , 2015, , .

. 2008-2015 : () , , 2008 : (i) 5 . (ii) , - , 85 . (iii) (), 8 . , , . () (Emergency Liquidity Assistance ELA). () , , , (, 2015).

, , , , 2016

79

, , 2008, ELA , 2012, 2015, . , , 2015 repos 157,8 . , 213,3 . 2014, 55,5 . , 26%. , , , ( 2014- 2015) 43,7 . , 120,8 . . , , , ELA, 126 . , , , repos ( 4.11).

4.11: /ELA & (2014-2015)

:

161 160,5 161 161,4162,1163,1163,2164,2164,7164,5164.3

160,3

148

140,5138,6133,7

129,9

122,2120,8

ELA

0

30

60

90

120

150

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-14

-15

-15

-15

-15

-15

-15

-15

160

170

.

, , , , 2016

80

, , ( 2008), , (2012), (2015). , , 2011-2013 ( 4.3), 45 . , 1,3 . , , 40 . 3,1 . , , , 8,3 . , 2014.

201571 , . , 2015, . , 4,4 . , , 14,4 . , 72. , 2015, 5,3 . , 2,7 . 5,4 . , ( , 2015).

71. . , , , - ..72. 25 . .

, , , , 2016

81

0 1.079.000.000 8.677.000.000 9.756.000.000

0 1.444.000.000 5.891.000.000 7.335.000.000

Alpha Bank 0 550.000.000 4.021.000.000 4.571.000.000

Eurobank 0 0 5.839.000.000 5.839.000.000

0 3.073.000.000 24.428.000.000 27.501.000.000

Proton Bank 862.000.000 0 1.169.621.860 2.031.621.860

T Bank 450.000.000 0 226.956.514 676.956.514

0 0 4.232.554.000 4.232.554.000

. - 0 0 55.516.733 55.516.733

0 0 209.473.992 209.473.992

0 0 55.493.756 55.493.756

0 0 8.040.717.000 8.040.717.000

0 0 524.000.000 524.000.000

FBB 0 0 551.970.455 551.970.455

Probank 0 0 795.733.502 795.733.502

. 0 0

0 0

0 0

1.312.000.000 0 16.288.981.753 17.600.981.753

1.312.000.000 3.073.000.000 40.716.981.753 45.101.981.753

: . , , FBB Proton Bank.: (2014)

4.3: (2011-2013)

, , , , , , , , . , , , , , .

.

, , , , 2016

82

, : () , , , ( , ..), ( ). () , .

, ( ), , ( ) , : () , . () , , , . () , , . () , ( ) . , , , , , .

, , , :

() ( , , ..), , ( ) ,

, , , , 2016

83

() , - (pilot cases), ( ), .

, , , - , , , , . ( , ..) ( ) , .

, , , ( , 2015).

, , , , , . , , ( ) .

, () (), , ,

, , , , 2016

84

. , , , , .

, , , , , , , .

2.3.

, . , : ( ) . . . , , , , .

. , . , , , . , , ,

, , , , 2016

85

(Perotti, 1995; Roland 2008).

, (Skreta, 2015). . . , , , . , , , , . , , . , , management , . , . , , . , , .

, (, , ). , , 1991-2011, , , .. 40 . (Skreta, 2015). (). . .

, , , , 2016

86

, 2014, 21 , 15 13 . , 10 , 22 1.000 , , , . 7,7 . , 3,1 . , . , . . , , (50 . ) .

, . , . , . , , logistics , , ..., .

, . . , , , . , , , , , . ,

, , , , 2016

87

- - . , , , .

. , . , , . , , .

, , . (, ..), . , .. , , ( ). .

, , , , , -- , , .

2.4.

-

, , , , 2016

88

. , , , . , , , . , , , , , . , , , .

, , . , , . , . , , ..., . , , , . , , , .

, [McKinsey (2012), (2013) (2013)]73. . , , - . , -,

73. (2013) (2013) , -, .

, , , , 2016

89

, . , , , , .

. , , , . McKinsey . , . , , , , , , . , -, , , , / , .. , , . , , . . , , home porting . , , , websites/mobile portals/social networking sites, .

(, , ). , , , .. ,

, , , , 2016

90

. , , , . , , , . , , , . , . , , , , , .

. .. . .., , . , , . , , . , , , , , . , , . , . , , ,

, , , , 2016

91

, , . , . , / , .

. , / , , . , . , , , . , . , , , , / . , , , . , . , .

. : ( ), , (logistics), , . , , -

, , , , 2016

92

. .. , , . , , , , , . , (.. ).

. , , . .. . , , , . , , ( ), . , , , , , . , , , , .

. , , , .

, , , , 2016

93

, , , , ( ). , , , , . , , .

. , , , . (startups) . , cloud computing, , , e-commerce, e-procurement .. , .., , , ( outsourcing). , , (.. ).

. , . . ( ).

, , , , 2016

94

, . , , (.. , , , , ..)74.

. , , , . , (, , , ) . : () () . , , , . , , , . .

, . . , , , , , , . , , .. , , ...

74. - 2009 50% .

, , , , 2016

95

3.1.

. . , . , , . , ( ). , . , , , .

3.

4.12: , 2007 (, , )

: Eurostat.

0

5

10

15

20

25

25

(2

7)

, , , , 2016

96

, , . status quo. , , ; 4.12 2007, , (3,3%). , .., , , 2007 -8,4%- ..-27. , 25 .. , 75.

, ( 4.13). , . , ( 55% 2007 59% 2014), ( 78,1% 76,1%).

4.13: (% 15-64)

: Eurostat

75. - , . Sabethai (2000) Burtless (2001), (2010), Lyberaki, Meghir and Nicolitsas (2015).

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

E E 28

2007 2014

75

80

28

, , , , 2016

97

, , , .. , .

.. ( 4.14). , . . , , , .

4.14: , 2014 (%)

: Eurostat

0

5

10

15

20

30

25

2

8

, , , , 2016

98

, , , (Mitrakos, Tsakloglou and Cholezas, 2010)76. , , . , . ( ) ( ). , (Employment Protection Legislation) . (insiders) (outsiders). , .. , . , , , , , ceteris paribus, , ( ) .

. , , , . , , . , , , .. . , tax wedge ( ), :

76. , - . Christopoulou and Monastiriotis (2015).

, , , , 2016

99

, .

(Ioannou, 2012; Lyberaki, Meghir and Nikolitsas, 2015): , , , . . 2012 22% 25 32% 25 . ( ). ( 5%), tax wedge. , , , , , , . , . . 4.15, 2013 2005. , .

4.15: (2005=100)

: Eurostat.

2002 2004 2006 200820032001 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

, , , , 2016

100

, . , . , . , ( ) ( ). .. 4.16, 7,8% 2008 27,5% 2013, - - . 12 ( ). , . , . 2008 5,1% 11,5%. 2014 23,7% 30,2%, . 25 59,9% 2013. , (49,9% 2014). , , ( ) . , 2013 20%.

4.16: (2005-2014)

: Eurostat.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

.

. . .

15-24

2006Q1 2008Q12005Q1 2007Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1

, , , , 2016

101

, , (flexicurity).

, .. . (Employment Protection Legislation) , 2009 2013, - .. ( 9, 10 11 21 ), ( ) 17 . , , ( 4.17), . , (10 21 ). , , , . , , , .

4.17: - (2013)

: OECD

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

GR

1,25 1,75 2,25 2,75 3,25

, , , , 2016

102

, , 2014 tax wedge (40,4%) 21 .. (42,1%), (36,0%). , , . , , , .

- -, , . , , , .

, , , . (, , ..) , , . , , , ( 4.18). , , , . , , .

, , , , 2016

103

, , . , , , . . , , , , . . , , .

, . , ,

4.18: , 2010 (% )

: Eurostat

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

..

(28)

, , , , 2016

104

. .. 4.19. , , , ( ). , , .

4.19: - (2013)

: OECD

. , .. , , , [Sarris and Zografakis (1999), (2003) Cholezas and Tsakloglou (2009)]. , , .. (brain drain). ,

50

60

70

80

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,6

2,0

1,5

GR

40

0,7

0,5

1,4

1,7

1,8

1,9

, , , , 2016

105

, 77. , , . , . , , . , . , , (.. ..).

, , . , , . , . , , ( ), . , , , . , .

3.2.

, , , male breadwinner model. . , .

77. brain drain .

, , , , 2016

106

, , . , . , - - .

4.20: , 1995-2012 (% )

: Eurostat

(, , ) , . 18,5% 1995 23,2% 2007. - .. (..15, Eurostat) 25% . , , ( ),

15

20

25

30

35

E..15

2011

2008

2009

2010

2012

2005

2006

2007

2001

1998

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

1995

1996

1997

, , , , 2016

107

(OECD, 2013b). , - , , . , . , 2012 30,3% .. .. 27,6% - 28,5% ( 4.21).

, ( 4.22). 60% , , , 45%. , . . , .. 2012, .

4.21: - .., 2012 (% )

: Eurostat

10

15

20

25

30

..

28

, , , , 2016

108

4.22: : ..-28 (2012)

: Eurostat

. 9,6% 1995 17,7% 2012 ( 4.23). , , - .., , 11,6% 12,8%.

, 2012 , , .. ( 4.24). 17,7% (5) .. 12,8%. , Eurostat , .

0

20

40

60

80

100

.. 28

/

, , , , 2016

109

4.23: , 1995-2012 (% )

: Eurostat

4.24: - .., 2012 (% )

: Eurostat

8

10

12

14

16

18

..15

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1995

0

5

10

15

20

..

28

18

, , , , 2016

110

. , , . Eurostat, 60% , 2014 .. . , - .., .

4.25: ( ) - ..

: Eurostat

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

..

28

, , , , 2016

111

, , . Gini, 28 - ..

4.26: Gini - .. (2014)

: Eurostat

, . . 78. , , . . , , . , (, 2013). , . . . ,

78. O .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

..

28

, , , , 2016

112

, , , .

. 2010 (IMF, 2010). ( , ) ( , ) () . , 65 67 . 2015, , .

4.27: , (2005-2014)

: Eurostat

10

20

30

40

50

18 -

- 18 -

-

2006 20082005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

, , , , 2016

113

, , (Koutsogeorgopoulou, Matsaganis, Leventi and Schneider, 2014). , ( ) . , , (60% ), ( 19,7% 2009 22,1% 2014), , ( 4.27). , 2005 , 16,2% 2009 42,7% 2014. .., , , .

, ( , - ) . , , - . , . , , ( 4.28). , . 2014 25,3%, 14,9% 22,1%.

, , , , 2016

114

4.28: : (1995-2014)

: Eurostat

; . , , , . .

, , . . ( 4.29) , , , 24,5% , 9,5% . 15% , , . , -, , , .

10

15

20

25

30

35

65 16

1996

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

, , , , 2016

115

4.29: , (% )

:

2010 (Panageas and Tinios, 2015). , . , , , , , , , . , , / .

, , , . . . .

5%

0%

10%

15%

25%

20%

/ / /

2017 20272012 2022 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057

, , , , 2016

116

79. , . , , , , . . , , , (, , , .). , ( .., , , ..), . , ( ) . , , , . , .

, , . ( , ), ( , ). , ( , ), .

, . , . , , . .

79. Ageing Report Economic Policy Committee .. (European Commission, 2014b), 2013 1,4 2,1 1,6 . , - 2 65 20% 2013 34% 2050. , 15-64 65% 53%.

, , , , 2016

117

, , . , , , , , . , , . , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , (Panageas and Tinios, 2015).

, (universal benefits) (means tested benefits). , , . , . ( ) , , ( ) , , . , , , . .

, , , , 2016

118

.. , . , . , , . , , . , ( ..). 100%, .

80. , . , , , , , , (.. ).

, . , , . , . . . , ,

80. - , . Matsaganis, Papadopoulos and Tsakloglou (2010), (2007) Matsaganis and Leventi (2015).

, , , , 2016

119

. , . , , .

, , , . ( , / , ). , , .

3.3.

, . : , . , . .

, , . , (OECD, Education at a Glance) . 2005. , . , , , , , , , .

, , , , 2016

120

6,5% . , , . , , , (Koutsampelas and Tsakloglou, 2015).

4.30: , .. (% )

: Eurostat

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

..28.. 19

2006 20082007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

, , , , 2016

121

4.31: - .. (2013)

: Eurostat

, 3,5% 2000, 4,0% , ( 4.30). , . 2013 4,5% , ..-28 4,8% 5,0%, . , - .. ( 4.31).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

..

28

19

, , , , 2016

122

, , ( 4.32). , 15-64, 2002 11,9%, 2014 , 24,6% ( .. 26,0%).

4.32: 15-64 (2002-2014)

: Eurostat

1990 2000. () , , 50% 1990, 90% 2000, . , ( ) , , .

, , .

0

6

12

18

24

30

200620052002 2003 2004 20082007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

..28

, , , , 2016

123

.. . , .., , , , ( 4.33). . , .

4.33: (% )

: Eurostat

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0

..28

, , , , 2016

124

. PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) : , . , . , , . - .. 2012

4.34.1: PISA - (2012)

: OECD - PISA

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

..

, , , , 2016

125

4.34.2: PISA - (2012)

: OECD - PISA

4.34.3: PISA - (2012)

: OECD - PISA

420

460

480

440

520

500

400

..

400

430

460

490

520

550

..

, , , , 2016

126

, ( 4.34.1-4.34.3). - . , , (Shanghai List, Times Higher Education List, QS List ..).

, . 2013, 83% . , 18% ..

2010, , , , . , , , (OECD, 2011). , .

, , . ( ). , . , , . , . , / [ OECD (2011)]. , () , () , . ,

, , , , 2016

127

, .

, , , , , . , . ( ) . , . : . , , , (seniority). , , , ( ). , , .

, , , . , , , (Cholezas, Kanellopoulos, Mitrakos and Tsakloglou, 2013). , . , .

, , .

, , , , 2016

128

, , , , , , . , .

. . , , . , . , . , , (.. ) , . , , . , .

, , , . , , , . , , - ( 4.35). , . , ( , ..) .

, , , , 2016

129

, . . . , , , , . , , .

. . , . , , . ,

4.35: (2005-06)

: OECD (2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

7

8

9

10

6

E

Average

(Q

u)

(Fl)

(D)

(M

a)

(O

n)

(

.)

(

)

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a)

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c)

(N

B)

-

, , , , 2016

130

, , , , .

, . , , .

, , . . (Heckman, 2008). , . . , . . , , . , , , , , . , , .

3.4. ,

, , , , , . , . Schumpeter .

, , , , 2016

131

(transmission channel). , .

, , .., . , , ( 4.36). ( 0,4% 1990 0,6% 2000), , , .. . , 2014 (0,83%), .

4.36: , 2003-2014

: Eurostat

1,5

2,0

2,5

..28.. 19

1,0

0,5

2003

2002

2001

2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

, , , , 2016

132

, 4.37, .. (2,03% 2,11%, ) , , ( 3%), ( 2,5% 3,0%). , . .. . ..-28 . . , .. 2014 1,30% , 0,28%. . , , . (0,31% 0,46%), .

4.37: - .., 2014 (% )

: Eurostat

4,0

3,0

2,0

1,0

0,0

-2

8

, , , , 2016

133

( 4.38). , , .

4.38: - .., 2014 (% )

: Eurostat

, , , 4.39 (1,2% 5,7%, 8%).

0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

..

(28)

..

, , , , 2016

134

4.39: - - .. (2014)

: Eurostat

. , ( ) , , ( 4.40 4.41). , .

0

5

10

15

..

, , , , 2016

135

4.40: (2012)

: Eurostat

4.41: 10% , 2009 (% )

: Eurostat

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

..

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

..

, , , , 2016

136

, , , ( 2012 17 , 235 291 ..-28 , ). .

4.42: , 2012 ( )

: Eurostat

, (researchers), , (entrepreneurs), , (managers), . Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015, - .., , , . 4.43. - .. , , .

0

200

400

600

..

(18)

..

(28)

, , , , 2016

137

4.43: - ..

: European Commission, Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015

4.44: (2007-2014)

: European Commission, Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015.

Silicon Valley (Kritikos and Zimmermann, 2014); . , ( ). , , , . , , .

,

0

0,20,1

0,40,3

0,6

0,80,7

0,5

0,9

RO

MK

BG TR EUIT

HRLV FRSK EE EN UKLT BE

HU RS ESEL MT PT AT

NOCZ

LU DE

NL FI CK BE

CHIECYPL IB

20082007 2009 2011 20132010 2012 2014

0,32

0,33

0,34

0,35

0,36

0,37

0,38

0,39

0,40

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

Innovation index Relative to EU

, , , , 2016

138

(startups) , (Herrmann and Kritikos, 2013). , , . , .

, , , . . , , ( ), (brain drain). , , . , ( ).

( , , , , ), . . , , , , . , , .

, . , , , , ,

, , , , 2016

139

. , , (networking), (clustering), .

, , . , - , Horizon2020, . , , , , , (.. , testing centres ..). , , , . , venture capital, seed capital - . , , , , . , .

, , . , .

3.5.

, .. . ..-28

, , , , 2016

140

1995-2013 ( 4.45). , .. .., ( 3,9% 2008 3,1% 2013). , .. 1995 (4,2% 5,5%), , 2009 (6,8%), , , 6,0% 2013. -, - .

4.45: .., 1995-2013 (% )

: OECD

0

2

4

6

8

10

1996

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-

.. - - .. -

- .. -

, , , , 2016

141

90% . . .. . () , ( 4.46).

4.46: .., 2013 (% )

: OECD

00

0,50.3

1,82,9

0,40,4

1,10,1

0,10

2,21,5

0,20

2,43,8

..

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0

(, )

, , , , 2016

142

.. . ( 4.47 4.48). , 6 4 1.000 . 0,6:1, .. 2,6:1. , (28,3 27,3).

4.47: , 2013 ( 1.000 )

: OECD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

, , , , 2016

143

, (.. ), , (.. , ..), . , 26% , 71%, 95%. .

4.48: , 2013 ( 1.000 )

: OECD

0

5

10

15

20

, , , , 2016

144

, 1980, , . , . , , , ( , ..) . , (Kentikelenis et al, 2011; Liaropoulos, 2012; Zavras et al, 2013). , (, ) ( , , ). , , , .

4.49: - .. (2013)

: Eurostat

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MT

AT

BE FI NL

DE

LU FR

DK SE UK ES CZ

EE CY SI

EU (2

8) LT IE HR IT PT HU LV PL

BG EL ROSK

, , , , 2016

145

, , , , . To 4.50 2011, .

4.50: (2011)

: (2013)

, 18 . , 12 . 6 . . 12 . , 8 . (5 . 3 . ), 4 . ( ). 4 . 2% . , 7,10% (2,55% 4,55% ). tax wedge . , . ,

2011 18 .

6 .

5 .

3 .

2 . ..

7 .

4 .

2 .

12 .

, , , , 2016

146

2%, , . , - .

, ( ), . .

2010. , , , , , , , , . , , . , .

, , , . , . , , ( ). , , - .

, , , , 2016

147

( ).

, ( ), .. . .. , . ( off-patent) . , , . , ( ), , , , . .

(, , ..). .

, , , . ( , ..) . , ( ). , , , , ( ,

, , , , 2016

148

, , ) .

. , , , , . , , , , , (Mossialos, Allin and Davaki, 2005). , .

, , , , 2016

:

, , , , 2016

150

. :

H 2016 2008, 2015 2008 . , 2014 . , , 2015 2016 2015, 2015. 2015 2016, 25%, , , , , .

, , , , 2016

151

, . . ( ) 100 . 2020, (McKinsey, 2012). , , , ( 20-64 ) 55%, 68% ( 2014) 75%. , . , , , . .

( ), 40%, . , , , ( ) .

1.

, , , , 2016

152

.

, , , , . ( , 2009 ) , , , ... , , .

, , , . ( ) , , (sudden stop) , . , , , . , , , , , , , , . , Grexit, , , , , .

, , , , 2016

153

2010 , , . M, 2009-2010 . - , , , . ( ), , , , , . ..., - , , 3% 2005 . 2003 , 2008-2009 .

2010. , , . ( , ,

2.

, , , , 2016

154

, , , , , , ) . , . , , , , , , , .

, , . , , 2008, . , . , , , , .

, , , , 2016

155

, 2016 . , , , , .

, , - . , , , ( ) . , , . , , , , .

, , ( ) . ( ) . , . , . , , , 2020, . , , ,

3.

, , , , 2016

156

, .

, , , , . , ( waiver), , Juncker, , , .

, , , . , , . , . , , . .

, , , , 2016

157

O 2010, , . , . , , , (country risk), , , . .

, , . , . , . , . .

4. :

, , , , 2016

158

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