MΩ

D∑L

C∆

L∑N

D∆

R20

15O

ur t

hink

ing

in s

ocial

-eco

logi

cal s

yste

ms

rese

arch

is in

fluen

ced

by m

any

mod

els. T

his

calen

dar

high

light

s so

me

of t

hese

mod

els. I

t is

a re

sult

of m

onth

ly d

inne

rs a

nd m

odel

disc

ussio

ns o

ver a

yea

r by

a gr

oup

of re

sear

cher

s at t

he B

eijer

Inst

itute

of E

colo

gica

l Eco

nom

ics a

nd

the S

tock

holm

Res

ilien

ce C

entre

.

MO

DEL

: So

cial-e

colog

ical s

yste

m, o

r cak

e mod

el (F

olke 1

990;

Per

rings

et al

. 199

2)

PURP

OSE

: The

cake

mod

el de

mon

strat

es th

at th

e eco

nom

y is a

par

t of t

he so

cial

syste

m, w

hich

is in

its t

urn

part

of th

e bios

pher

e. Th

is m

akes

the e

cono

my a

n in

tertw

ined

pa

rt of

syste

m ea

rth.

IMPA

CT:

The m

odel

evok

ed a

persp

ectiv

e shi

ft of

the t

radit

ional

econ

omic

view

of la

nd, la

bour

, ca

pital

as fa

ctor

s of p

rodu

ction

for t

he ec

onom

y to

the e

cono

my a

s an

embe

dded

par

t of t

he b

iosph

ere.

The s

ocial

-eco

logica

l sys

tem

mod

el re

pres

ents

the c

ore o

f the

Sto

ckho

lm R

esilie

nce C

entre

and

the B

eijer

In

stitu

te o

f Eco

logica

l Eco

nom

ics as

well

as th

e key

view

in co

inin

g thi

s era

as th

e Ant

roph

ocen

e. Th

e mod

el ha

s bee

n cr

iticiz

ed fo

r plac

ing t

he ec

onom

y in

the c

entre

, how

ever

, bein

g rep

rese

nted

in th

e inn

er ci

rcle

refe

rs to

ec

onom

ies as

a su

bsys

tem

, exp

licitl

y plac

ed in

to a

socia

l-eco

logica

l/bios

pher

e per

spec

tive.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: O

ppos

ing,

but s

trong

ly re

lated

earli

er m

odel:

com

pone

nt p

arts

of p

rice:

land

-labo

ur-c

apita

l (Sm

ith 17

76).

Insp

iratio

n fo

r thi

s mod

el: Th

e Eco

nom

ics o

f the

Com

ing S

pace

ship

Earth

(Bou

lding

1966

); Ec

ology

: A B

ridge

Bet

ween

Scie

nce a

nd

Socie

ty (O

dum

1975

); Ec

ology

and

Our

End

ange

red

Life

-Sup

port

Syste

ms (

Odu

m 19

89);

For T

he C

omm

on G

ood:

Red

irect

ing t

he E

cono

my

towa

rd C

omm

unity

, the

Env

ironm

ent,

and

a Sus

tain

able

Futu

re (D

aly &

Cob

b 19

89).

No m

an is

an is

land,

Entir

e of i

tself;

Eve

ry m

an is

a pie

ce of

the

cont

inent

, A pa

rt of

the m

ain. –

John

Don

ne

We a

ll ar

e pa

rt of

the

bios

pher

e

NAT

URE

SOC

IETY

ECO

NO

MY

Illustration: J Lokrantz/Azote. Funded by Beijer and SRC.

JAN

UAR

Y 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

2930

311

23

4

56

78

910

11

1213

1415

1617

18

1920

2122

2324

25

2627

2829

3031

1

MO

DEL

: Lot

ka-V

olter

ra

PURP

OSE

: The

mod

el wa

s ind

epen

dent

ly de

velop

ed b

y A.J.

Lot

ka (1

925)

and

V. V

olter

ra (1

926)

to

analy

se th

e int

erac

tion

of a

pred

ator

and

a pre

y spe

cies o

ver t

ime.

IMPA

CT:

The e

arly

mod

el hi

ghlig

hted

that

chan

ges i

n on

e pop

ulatio

n or

syste

m m

ight a

ffect

a de

pend

ent s

yste

m an

d vic

e ver

sa, in

wha

t we n

ow ca

ll a lin

k or f

eedb

ack.

It als

o fo

stere

d th

e use

of

diff

eren

tial e

quat

ions i

n de

scrib

ing t

he d

ynam

ics o

f eco

logica

l sys

tem

s. Th

is m

etho

d wa

s lat

er

trans

ferre

d to

econ

omic

syste

ms t

o an

alyse

the i

nter

actio

ns b

etwe

en tw

o in

dustr

ial se

ctor

s.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: Th

e 198

9 Ar

diti-G

inzb

urg m

odel

prov

ides a

sim

pler a

ltern

ative

des

cript

ion o

f ob

serv

ed p

reda

tor-

prey

dyn

amics

. Ana

logou

s mod

els w

ere d

evelo

ped

inde

pend

ently

in ec

onom

ics to

de

mon

strat

e the

relat

ionsh

ip be

twee

n wa

ges a

nd em

ploym

ent (

Goo

dwin

1967

).

The w

orld

is

dyna

mic

The s

nake

whic

h can

not c

ast i

ts sk

in ha

s to d

ie. A

s well

the

mind

s whic

h are

prev

ente

d fro

m ch

angin

g the

ir op

inion

s; th

ey

ceas

e to b

e mind

. –Fr

iedric

h N

ietzs

che

If no

thing

ever

chan

ged,

ther

e’d be

no bu

tterfl

ies.

–Unk

nown

Illustration: E Wikander/Azote. Funded by Beijer and SRC.

FEBR

UAR

Y 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

2627

2829

3031

1

23

45

67

8

910

1112

1314

15

1617

1819

2021

22

2324

2526

2728

1

MO

DEL

: Sm

all w

orld

netw

ork m

odel

PURP

OSE

: The

mod

el sh

ows h

ow ev

eryb

ody i

s con

nect

ed to

ever

ybod

y else

in th

e wor

ld. W

e ar

e not

conn

ecte

d dir

ectly

, but

rath

er b

y the

conn

ectio

ns o

f the

conn

ectio

ns w

e hav

e with

peo

ple

in o

ur n

etwo

rk. T

his l

eads

to th

e com

mon

sayin

g, “It

’s a s

mall

wor

ld!” w

hen

stran

gers

reali

ze th

ey

shar

e a co

mm

on fr

iend.

IMPA

CT:

The i

nter

actio

n be

twee

n pe

ople

can

be d

escr

ibed

usin

g a n

etwo

rk, w

hich

high

light

s th

e crit

ical r

ole th

at th

e stru

ctur

e of n

eighb

orho

od in

tera

ction

s has

on

our s

ociet

y’s fu

nctio

n. In

ge

nera

l net

work

stru

ctur

e is i

mpo

rtant

in ap

prec

iatin

g how

com

plex s

yste

ms f

unct

ion.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: S

cale

free n

etwo

rks,

rand

om n

etwo

rks a

nd p

lanar

net

work

s. Al

so re

lates

to

Erd

ős n

umbe

r, Ke

vin B

acon

gam

e and

small

wor

ld ph

enom

enon

(Wat

ts &

Stro

gatz

1998

).

The w

orld

is sm

all

El m

undo

es un

pañu

elo. –

Refrá

n ib

eroa

mer

icano

It’s a

small

wor

ld af

ter a

ll.

–She

rman

Bro

ther

s 196

5

It’s a

small

wor

ld, so

be ca

refu

l wh

at yo

u say

. –Je

ssica

Klem

ann,

Fo

rbes

Illustration: Calendar creators

MAR

CH 2

015

MO

ND

AYTU

ESD

AYW

EDN

ESD

AYTH

URS

DAY

FRID

AYSA

TURD

AYSU

ND

AY23

2425

2627

281

23

45

67

8

910

1112

1314

15

1617

1819

2021

22

2324

2526

2728

29

3031

12

34

5

MO

DEL

: Fold

bifu

rcat

ion

PURP

OSE

: It i

s eas

y to

thin

k tha

t the

stat

e of a

syste

m ch

ange

s sm

ooth

ly wi

th a

chan

ge in

its d

river

. Fold

bifu

rcat

ions s

how

that

the s

tate

of a

syste

m ca

n, h

owev

er,

chan

ge ab

rupt

ly ev

en af

ter a

very

small

chan

ge in

its d

river

. Hen

ri Po

inca

ré, a

Fre

nch

mat

hem

atici

an, w

as th

e first

to in

trodu

ce an

d stu

dy b

ifurc

ation

s bac

k in

1885

, sho

wing

th

at in

dyn

amic

syste

ms e

ven

a sm

all sm

ooth

chan

ge in

a pa

ram

eter

can

caus

e a su

dden

qu

alita

tive c

hang

e in

the s

yste

m’s

beha

viour

.

IMPA

CT:

Fold

bifu

rcat

ions a

re a

com

mon

mod

el of

regim

e shi

fts, s

ince

they

can

prod

uce

large

, abr

upt c

hang

es th

at ar

e diffi

cult

to re

verse

: in o

ther

wor

ds, h

yste

resis

(Sch

effer

et

al. 2

001;

Sche

ffer &

Car

pent

er 2

003)

. For

exam

ple, d

efor

esta

tion

could

trigg

er

an ir

reve

rsible

shift

to sa

vann

a. Be

caus

e of h

yste

resis

, it is

a ru

le of

thum

b fro

m th

e m

anag

emen

t per

spec

tive t

hat i

t is e

asier

and

chea

per t

o pr

even

t reg

ime s

hifts

than

to

resto

re sh

ifted

socia

l-eco

logica

l sys

tem

s, as

embo

died

in th

e folk

sayin

g ‘A

stitc

h in

tim

e sa

ves n

ine’.

Reg

ime s

hifts

and

their

impli

cit th

inkin

g of n

on-li

near

surp

rises

are a

majo

r fo

unda

tion

of re

silien

ce th

inkin

g.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: B

ifurc

ation

theo

ry, C

atas

troph

e the

ory,

Cha

os th

eory

The w

orld

chan

ges

abru

ptly

A sti

ch in

tim

e sav

es ni

ne. –

Anon

ymou

s

Illustr

ation

: E W

ikand

er/A

zote

. Fun

ded

by B

eijer

and

SRC

.

APRI

L 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

3031

12

34

5

67

89

1011

12

1314

1516

1718

19

2021

2223

2425

26

2728

2930

12

3

Shar

e you

r wor

ld!

Sket

ch yo

ur o

wn m

odel

that

refle

cts h

ow th

e wor

ld is

seen

diff

eren

tly (i

f you

like i

n th

e field

belo

w). T

ake a

pict

ure o

f it

and

shar

e it w

ith th

e oth

er m

odel

calen

dar o

wner

s at o

ur

mod

eling

calen

dar w

ebsit

e: m

odelc

alend

ar.b

logsp

ot.se

.

How

? Sen

d an

email

to: m

ymay

mod

el.20

15@

blogg

er.co

m

with

the t

itle o

f you

r mod

el as

subje

ct o

f the

email

. Atta

ch

your

mod

el, i.e

. pict

ure o

r dra

wing

. You

can

inclu

de a

desc

riptio

n in

the b

ody o

f the

email

if yo

u lik

e. H

ave a

look

he

re fo

r ins

pirin

g exa

mple

s: m

odelc

alend

ar.b

logsp

ot.se

.

The w

orld

is

seen

di

ffere

ntly

Ther

e are

no fa

cts,

only

inter

pret

ation

s. –F

riedr

ich

Niet

zsch

e

We c

an co

mpla

in be

caus

e ro

se bu

shes

have

thor

ns, o

r re

joice

beca

use t

horn

bush

es

have

rose

s. –A

brah

am

Linc

oln

Illustration: Calendar creators

mode

lcalen

dar.b

logspo

t.se

Shar

e you

r worl

d !

MAY

201

5M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

2728

2930

12

3

45

67

89

10

1112

1314

1516

17

1819

2021

2223

24

2526

2728

2930

31

Reso

urce

s

Birth

sPopulation

Food

per c

apita

Pollu

tion

Services per capita

Indu

strial

out

put

per

capit

a

Deaths

MO

DEL

: Wor

ld3 (T

he L

imits

to G

rowt

h)

PURP

OSE

: Wor

ld3 (M

eado

ws et

al. 1

972)

is a

syste

m d

ynam

ics m

odel

which

sim

ulate

s the

inte

ract

ions

betw

een

popu

lation

and

indu

strial

grow

th, f

ood

prod

uctio

n an

d bio

phys

ical li

mits

of t

he E

arth

. The

pu

rpos

e of t

he m

odel

was t

o ex

plore

how

expo

nent

ial ec

onom

ic an

d po

pulat

ion gr

owth

inte

ract

s with

fini

te

reso

urce

s, an

d to

obs

erve

how

certa

in ke

y var

iables

(wor

ld po

pulat

ion, in

dustr

ialisa

tion,

poll

ution

, foo

d pr

oduc

tion

and

reso

urce

dep

letion

) cha

nge o

nce t

hey r

each

the l

imits

to gr

owth

. The

mod

el as

sum

es th

at

the w

orld

has b

iophy

sical

limits

that

are fi

nite

, and

that

ther

e are

ther

efor

e lim

its to

grow

th.

IMPA

CT:

The W

orld3

mod

el ch

allen

ged

the s

tatu

s quo

of t

he gr

owth

par

adigm

and

had

a sign

ifica

nt

impa

ct o

n th

e ser

ious u

ptak

e of e

nviro

nmen

tal is

sues

. The

boo

k ‘Li

mits

to G

rowt

h’, in

whi

ch th

e mod

el an

d its

impli

catio

ns w

as p

rese

nted

, was

a m

ilesto

ne fo

r foc

usin

g rigo

rous

deb

ate o

n lin

kage

s bet

ween

nat

ural,

ec

onom

ic, an

d en

viron

men

tal f

acto

rs. Th

e mod

el, w

hich

in so

me c

ircles

was

cont

rove

rsial

(Cole

et al

. 197

3),

coun

tere

d th

e bas

ic as

sum

ption

that

grow

th is

alwa

ys go

od.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: P

lanet

ary b

ound

aries

, Mes

arov

ic/Pe

stel m

odel,

Bar

iloch

e mod

el, M

OIR

A m

odel,

SA

RU m

odel,

FU

GI m

odel,

UN

wor

ld m

odel

The o

rigin

al pr

oject

ions o

f the

Lim

its to

Gro

wth

mod

el ex

tend

ed to

the

year

210

0 (ti

me s

cale

1900

-210

0), m

odifi

ed fr

om H

all an

d D

ay (2

009)

.

Ther

e are

no lim

its to

grow

th an

d hum

an pr

ogre

ss wh

en m

en an

d wom

en ar

e fre

e to

follo

w th

eir dr

eam

s. –

Rona

ld R

eaga

n

You m

ay be

able

to fo

ol th

e vot

ers b

ut no

t the

atm

osph

ere.

–Don

ella M

eado

ws

http

://yo

utu.

be/b

qz3R

1NpX

zM

Ther

e are

lim

itsIllustration: Calendar creators

JUN

E 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

12

34

56

7

89

1011

1213

14

1516

1718

1920

21

2223

2425

2627

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2930

12

34

5

MO

DEL

: Con

way’s

gam

e of l

ife (G

ardn

er 19

70)

PURP

OSE

: The

mod

el is

a suc

cess

ful r

epre

sent

ation

of a

hyp

othe

tical

mac

hine

that

can

build

copie

s of i

tself

(a p

roble

m p

osed

by t

he

mat

hem

atici

an Jo

hn vo

n N

eum

ann

in th

e 194

0’s).

Fou

r rule

s app

lied

itera

tively

to ea

ch ce

ll on

a grid

can

prod

uce r

ecur

rent

stru

ctur

es.

IMPA

CT:

The ‘

Gam

e of l

ife’ is

fam

ous a

s it s

hows

how

com

plex p

atte

rns c

an em

erge

from

sim

ple ru

les. I

t is o

ne ex

ample

of ‘

cellu

lar au

tom

ata’

(CA:

grid

cells

follo

w ru

les th

at d

epen

d on

th

e sta

tes o

f the

ir ne

ighbo

rs). C

A ar

e app

lied

to a

rang

e of r

eal li

fe p

heno

men

a, su

ch as

the

rise a

nd fa

ll of s

ociet

ies an

d pa

ttern

s on

seas

hells

, and

serv

e as a

n ex

ample

of e

mer

genc

e and

se

lf-or

gani

satio

n. Th

e fac

t tha

t sim

ple ru

les ca

n re

sult

in co

mple

x pat

tern

s rela

tes t

o ‘m

ore i

s diff

eren

t’ by

indic

atin

g tha

t int

erac

tions

bet

ween

one

kind

of u

nit (

micr

o-lev

el/in

dividu

als)

may

resu

lt in

unf

ores

een

patte

rns a

t ano

ther

leve

l (m

acro

/gro

up) w

ithou

t any

obv

ious c

ausa

l ex

plana

tion.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: S

chell

ing’s

mod

el of

spat

ial se

greg

ation

(Sch

ellin

g 196

9), M

ayaS

im (H

eckb

ert 2

013)

, Floc

king,

herd

s and

sc

hools

- m

ovem

ent m

odels

(Rey

nolds

1987

)

*And

erso

n (19

72)

Mor

e is d

iffer

ent*

The w

hole

is m

ore t

han t

he su

m of

its p

arts.

–Ar

istot

le

Illustr

ation

: Cale

ndar

crea

tors

JULY

201

5M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

2930

12

34

5

67

89

1011

12

1314

1516

1718

19

2021

2223

2425

26

2728

2930

311

2

MO

DEL

: Lor

enz A

ttrac

tor

PURP

OSE

: In

1963

, Edw

ard

Lore

nz d

evelo

ped

a sim

ple m

athe

mat

ical

mod

el fo

r atm

osph

eric

conv

ectio

n. Th

e out

put o

f his

mod

el tu

rned

ou

t to

be ex

trem

ely se

nsiti

ve to

initi

al co

nditi

ons.

A tin

y cha

nge i

n th

e fou

rth d

ecim

al pla

ce le

d to

a hu

ge ch

ange

in p

redic

tions

abou

t the

fu

ture

stat

e of t

he at

mos

pher

e in

the m

odel.

The L

oren

z attr

acto

r is a

plo

t of t

he sy

stem

’s lon

g-te

rm d

ynam

ics.

IMPA

CT:

The L

oren

z attr

acto

r was

a m

ajor t

rigge

r for

the

deve

lopm

ent o

f cha

os th

eory

and

the c

ollap

se in

the N

ewto

nian

be

lief o

f a p

redic

table

cloc

kwor

k uni

verse

. Eve

n if

the r

ules o

f a

syste

m ar

e com

plete

ly kn

own,

the s

yste

m’s

futu

re ca

n be

effec

tively

un

pred

ictab

le, b

ecau

se ac

cura

te p

redic

tion

would

requ

ire in

put

info

rmat

ion o

f infi

nite

accu

racy

.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: Th

e but

terfl

y effe

ct, C

haos

theo

ry

The w

orld

can

be

unpr

edict

able

Pred

iction

is ve

ry di

fficu

lt, es

pecia

lly ab

out t

he fu

ture

. –At

tribu

ted

to va

rious

, inclu

ding

Niel

s Boh

r and

Mar

k Twa

in

Illustr

ation

: E W

ikand

er/A

zote

. Fun

ded

by B

eijer

and

SRC

.

AUG

UST

201

5M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

2728

2930

311

2

34

56

78

9

1011

1213

1415

16

1718

1920

2122

23

2425

2627

2829

30

311

23

45

6

MO

DEL

: Pan

arch

y (in

spire

d by

the a

dapt

ive cy

cle).

The a

dapt

ive cy

cle is

a m

odel

of ad

aptiv

e cha

nge.

Pana

rchy

capt

ures

the a

dapt

ive an

d ev

olutio

nary

nat

ure o

f nes

ted

adap

tive c

ycles

.

PURP

OSE

: Pan

arch

y (G

unde

rson

& H

ollin

g 200

1) he

lps u

s und

ersta

nd in

tera

ction

s acr

oss s

cales

of s

pace

and

time i

n co

mple

x ada

ptive

sy

stem

s. Th

e mod

el is

used

to d

escr

ibe tr

ansit

ions i

n sy

stem

beh

aviou

r and

capt

ures

how

the s

yste

m is

susta

ined

as w

ell as

how

the s

yste

m

evolv

es. T

he ad

aptiv

e cyc

le is

com

pose

d of

four

dist

inct

pha

ses:

the r

-pha

se (e

xploi

tatio

n) sl

owly

accu

mula

tes c

apita

l and

conn

ecte

dnes

s to

the K

-pha

se (c

onse

rvat

ion),

which

even

tuall

y lea

ds to

the Ω

pha

se (c

reat

ive d

estru

ction

) and

quic

kly re

orga

nize

s in

the α

-pha

se (e

ngin

e of

varie

ty).

It is

also

poss

ible t

o th

ink o

f int

erco

nnec

ted

adap

tive c

ycles

acro

ss sp

ace a

nd ti

me (

as se

en in

the fi

gure

).

IMPA

CT:

Pan

arch

y cha

lleng

es tr

aditi

onal

hier

arch

y the

ory i

n ec

ology

and

has b

een

used

as a

heur

istic

aid in

socia

l-eco

logica

l sys

tem

s an

alysis

. The

cycli

cal b

ehav

ior ex

empli

fied

in p

anar

chy p

rovid

es an

alte

rnat

ive to

linea

r con

cept

ions o

f sys

tem

beh

avior

.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: A

dapt

ive m

anag

emen

t (H

ollin

g 197

8; W

alter

s 198

6), T

he ad

aptiv

e cyc

le (G

unde

rson

& H

ollin

g 200

1)

The w

orld

is ad

aptin

gIt

is no

t the

stro

nges

t or t

he m

ost i

ntell

igent

who

will

survi

ve

but t

hose

who

can b

est m

anag

e cha

nge.

– Ch

arles

Dar

win

Illustr

ation

: E W

ikand

er/A

zote

. Fun

ded

by B

eijer

and

SRC

.

SEPT

EMBE

R 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

311

23

45

6

78

910

1112

13

1415

1617

1819

20

2122

2324

2526

27

2829

301

23

4

MO

DEL

: Pris

oner

’s dil

emm

a

PURP

OSE

: The

Pris

oner

’s D

ilem

ma (

PD) i

s a ga

me t

hat i

s de

signe

d to

show

that

indiv

iduals

may

not

coop

erat

e eve

n if

it is

in th

eir b

est i

nter

ests

to d

o so

. Bot

h pa

rticip

atin

g ind

ividu

als

choo

se th

e stra

tegy

that

help

s the

m to

avoid

their

leas

t pr

efer

red

outc

ome.

This

strat

egy c

anno

t, ho

weve

r, lea

d to

an

optim

al ou

tcom

e for

bot

h in

dividu

als si

mult

aneo

usly.

IMPA

CT:

PD

was

use

d to

expla

in h

ow co

oper

ation

evolv

es

in h

uman

socie

ty. C

ompe

tition

and

coop

erat

ion ar

ise

from

the c

ombin

ation

of s

trate

gies c

hose

n by

indiv

iduals

. Re

peat

ing t

he P

D ga

me c

an le

ad to

out

com

es in

whi

ch

indiv

iduals

achi

eve c

oope

ratio

n. F

urth

erm

ore,

it he

lps to

ide

ntify

mec

hani

sms (

agre

emen

ts/in

stitu

tions

or t

rust)

that

ar

e cru

cial f

or h

avin

g ind

ividu

als ch

oose

stra

tegie

s tha

t lea

d to

a gr

oup

optim

um. T

hese

mec

hani

sms w

ere e

xplor

ed in

the

trage

dy o

f the

com

mon

s situ

ation

, exp

ress

ed as

pris

oner

’s dil

emm

a gam

es (O

strom

1990

).

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: Tr

aged

y of t

he co

mm

ons (

Har

din

1968

); Ite

rate

d pr

isone

r’s d

ilem

ma (

Axelr

od 19

84);

Spat

ial

priso

ner’s

dile

mm

a (N

ovak

& M

ay 19

92)

Peop

le co

oper

ate,

so

met

imes

The m

ost p

ower

ful f

orce

ever

know

n on t

his pl

anet

is hu

man

coop

erat

ion –

a fo

rce f

or co

nstru

ction

and

destr

uctio

n. –J

onat

han

Haid

t

Illustr

ation

: E W

ikand

er/A

zote

. Fun

ded

by B

eijer

and

SRC

.

OCT

OBE

R 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

2829

301

23

4

56

78

910

11

1213

1415

1617

18

1920

2122

2324

25

2627

2829

3031

1

MO

DEL

: Pat

hway

s (Le

ach

et al

. 201

0)

PURP

OSE

: Pat

hway

s map

out

futu

re tr

aject

ories

. The

y are

co

ncep

tual

mod

els o

f the

dire

ction

s in

which

inte

rcon

nect

ed

socia

l, tec

hnolo

gical

and

envir

onm

enta

l sys

tem

s cou

ld co

-evo

lve

over

tim

e. Th

e pat

hway

s app

roac

h em

phas

ises t

he co

mple

x, no

n-lin

ear i

nter

actio

ns th

at o

ccur

in th

ese s

yste

ms,

inclu

ding t

he

depe

nden

ce o

f fut

ure p

athw

ays o

n pa

st hi

story

.

IMPA

CT:

The p

athw

ays a

ppro

ach

has e

ncou

rage

d a f

ocus

on

how

differ

ent a

ctor

s in

a sys

tem

can

value

the s

ame p

athw

ays

dram

atica

lly d

iffer

ently

, and

can

even

imag

ine f

unda

men

tally

ne

w po

ssibl

e pat

hway

s. Th

e pat

hway

s app

roac

h as

ks u

s to

reco

gnise

susta

inab

ility a

s a p

olitic

al te

rm.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: H

istor

ical in

stitu

tiona

lism

, Wad

dingt

on’s

epige

netic

land

scap

es, D

evelo

pmen

t tra

jecto

ries,

Scen

ario

thin

king (

MA,

IPC

C),

Regim

e shi

fts, C

ritica

l tra

nsiti

ons,

Ball a

nd

cup

diagr

am

The w

orld

has

m

any p

ossib

le fu

ture

s If

you r

ide to

the l

eft,

you w

ill los

e you

r hor

se; if

you r

ide to

the r

ight,

you w

ill los

e you

r hea

d. –

Russ

ian fo

lk ta

les

Whe

n you

com

e to a

fork

in th

e roa

d, ta

ke it

. –Yo

gi Be

rra

Insp

ired

by S

tirlin

g (20

12)

Illustr

ation

: Cale

ndar

crea

tors

NO

VEM

BER

2015

MO

ND

AYTU

ESD

AYW

EDN

ESD

AYTH

URS

DAY

FRID

AYSA

TURD

AYSU

ND

AY26

2728

2930

311

23

45

67

8

910

1112

1314

15

1617

1819

2021

22

2324

2526

2728

29

301

23

45

6

MO

DEL

: Hom

o eco

nom

icus

PURP

OSE

: The

Hom

o eco

nom

icus m

odel

aims t

o de

scrib

e eco

nom

ic de

cision

s. Th

e cha

ract

erist

ics o

f Hom

o ec

onom

icus a

re:

1. co

mple

te kn

owled

ge: k

nowi

ng al

l the

re is

to kn

ow ab

out a

task

’s en

viron

men

t; 2.

bein

g a m

axim

iser:

a driv

e to

obta

in th

e high

est p

ossib

le ut

ility f

or o

nese

lf;

3. be

ing s

elf-in

tere

sted:

carin

g onl

y for

per

sona

l con

sum

ption

, wor

k and

leisu

re.

IMPA

CT:

The H

omo e

cono

micu

s mod

el ha

d an

d sti

ll has

a hu

ge im

pact

by b

eing b

oth

usef

ul an

d wr

ong.

Usef

ul be

caus

e the

sim

plicit

y of t

he m

odel

allow

ed p

eople

to th

ink,

reas

on, d

esign

poli

cies a

nd an

ticipa

te ec

onom

ic be

havio

ur. T

he in

fluen

ce o

f neo

class

ical e

cono

mics

show

s how

good

an in

itial

appr

oxim

ation

this

mod

el is

of

econ

omic

beha

viour

. The

wro

ngne

ss re

lates

to th

e ina

bility

of t

his m

odel

to d

escr

ibe d

ecisi

on-m

akin

g out

side o

f m

arke

t set

tings

. The

(ab)

use o

f thi

s mod

el/re

ason

ing o

utsid

e its

origi

nal s

cope

evok

ed an

d co

ntin

ues t

o ev

oke b

ig dis

cuss

ions i

n sc

ience

, bec

ause

it ca

n lea

d to

serio

us m

islea

ding c

onse

quen

ces (

Gin

tis 2

000)

.

RELA

TED

MO

DEL

S: (B

ound

ed) R

ation

al ac

tor m

odel

(Sim

on 19

55),

Mod

el So

cial A

gent

(Car

ley &

New

ell

1994

), Ho

mo r

ecipr

ocan

s, Ho

mo p

sych

ologic

us.

All m

odels

are w

rong

but s

ome a

re u

sefu

l*Da

ta w

ithou

t mod

els ar

e jus

t num

bers.

–Un

know

n

Rem

embe

r, alw

ays,

that

ever

ythin

g you

know

, and

ever

ythin

g eve

ryon

e kno

ws, is

only

a m

odel.

Get

your

mod

el ou

t the

re w

here

it ca

n be v

iewed

. Inv

ite ot

hers

to ch

allen

ge yo

ur

assu

mpt

ions a

nd ad

d the

ir ow

n. –D

onell

a Mea

dows

It is

not f

rom

the b

enev

olenc

e of t

he bu

tche

r, th

e bre

wer,

or th

e bak

er th

at w

e exp

ect o

ur

dinne

r, bu

t fro

m th

eir re

gard

to th

eir ow

n int

eres

t. –A

dam

Sm

ith

Illustration: E Wikander/Azote. Funded by Beijer and SRC.

*Box

& D

rape

r (19

87)

DEC

EMBE

R 20

15M

ON

DAY

TUES

DAY

WED

NES

DAY

THU

RSD

AYFR

IDAY

SATU

RDAY

SUN

DAY

301

23

45

6

78

910

1112

13

1415

1617

1819

20

2122

2324

2526

27

2829

3031

12

3

If yo

u ar

e won

derin

g wha

t a m

odel

is…

A M

OD

EL IS

A S

IMPL

IFIE

D

REPR

ESEN

TATI

ON

OF

A RE

AL-

WO

RLD

PH

ENO

MEN

ON

.

REFE

REN

CES

Ande

rson,

P.W

., 197

2. M

ore i

s diff

eren

t. Sc

ience

, 177

(404

7), p

p.39

3–39

6.

Ardit

i, R. &

Gin

zbur

g, L.

R., 1

989.

Cou

pling

in P

reda

tor-

Prey

Dyn

amics

: Rat

io-D

epen

denc

e. J.T

heor

.Bi

ol., 1

39, p

p.31

1–32

6.

Axelr

od, R

., 198

4. Th

e Evo

lution

of C

oope

ratio

n. N

ew Yo

rk: B

asic

Book

s.

Bould

ing,

K.E.

, 196

6. Th

e Eco

nom

ics o

f the

Com

ing S

pace

ship

Earth

. In

H. J

arre

tt, ed

. Env

ironm

enta

l Q

ualit

y in a

Gro

wing

Eco

nom

y. Ba

ltim

ore,

MD

: Res

ourc

es fo

r the

Fut

ure/

John

s Hop

kins U

nive

rsity

Pr

ess.

Box,

G.E

.P. &

Dra

per,

N.R

., 198

7. E

mpir

ical M

odel-

Build

ing an

d Res

pons

e Sur

face

s. H

obok

en: W

iley.

Carle

y, K.

& N

ewell

, A., 1

994.

The n

atur

e of t

he so

cial a

gent

. The

Jour

nal o

f Mat

hem

atica

l Soc

iolog

y, 19

(4),

pp.2

21–2

62.

Cole,

H.S

.D. e

t al.,

1973

. Mod

els of

Doo

m: A

Crit

ique o

f the

Lim

its to

Gro

wth.

New

York

: Uni

verse

Pu

blish

ing.

Daly

, H. &

Cob

b, J.

B.J.,

1989

. For

the C

omm

on G

ood:

Red

irect

ing th

e Eco

nom

y Tow

ard C

omm

unity

, the

En

viron

men

t and

a Su

staina

ble F

utur

e. Bo

ston:

Bea

con

Pres

s.

Folke

, C., 1

990.

Eva

luatio

n of e

cosy

stem

life-

supp

ort i

n rela

tion t

o salm

on an

d wet

land e

xploi

tatio

n. St

ockh

olm U

nive

rsity

.

Gar

dner

, M., 1

970.

Mat

hem

atica

l gam

es: T

he fa

ntas

tic co

mbin

ation

s of J

ohn

Conw

ay’s

new

solit

aire

gam

e “Li

fe.”

Scien

tific A

mer

ican,

223(

4), p

p.120

–124

.

Gin

tis, H

., 200

0. B

eyon

d H

omo

econ

omicu

s: ev

idenc

e fro

m ex

perim

enta

l eco

nom

ics. E

colog

ical

Econ

omics

, 35(

3), p

p.31

1–32

2.

Goo

dwin

, R.M

., 196

7. A

grow

th cy

cle. I

n C

. H. F

einste

in, e

d. S

ocial

ism, C

apita

lism

and E

cono

mic

Grow

th. C

ambr

idge U

nive

rsity

Pre

ss.

Gun

derso

n, L

.H. &

Holl

ing,

C.S

., 200

1. Pa

narc

hy: U

nder

stand

ing Tr

ansfo

rmat

ions i

n Hum

an an

d Nat

ural

Syste

ms.

Wah

singt

on, D

.C.:

Islan

d Pr

ess.

Hall

, C.A

.S. &

Day

, J.W

., 200

9. R

evisi

ting t

he L

imits

to G

rowt

h Af

ter P

eak O

il. Am

erica

n Scie

ntist

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3, p

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.

THAN

K YO

U!

Early

team

mem

bers

: Joh

an E

nqvis

t, D

aniel

Osp

ina-

Med

ina a

nd E

mm

a Sun

dströ

m. T

hank

s for

your

initi

al m

omen

tum

, any

pr

oject

nee

ds ea

rly b

eliev

ers.

Mov

ie ac

tors

: Tim

othy

Kar

pouz

oglou

and

Oliv

ia M

urza

beko

v, fo

r the

reali

stic p

erfo

rman

ce

of th

e hila

rious

misu

nder

stand

ings

mod

eller

s can

enco

unte

r. Ca

twalk

ers:

Jona

than

Don

ges,

Miri

am H

uitric

, Jea

n-Ba

ptist

e Jo

uffra

y, Jo

han

Enqv

ist, I

ngo

Fetz

er, V

anes

sa M

aste

rson,

And

rew

Mer

rie an

d La

n W

ang t

hank

s for

expr

essin

g eve

ry m

onth

in

way

s tha

t onl

y you

can.

And

than

k you

, Car

l Folk

e for

your

SES

insig

hts (

Janu

ary)

, and

Miri

am, y

ou ar

e sim

ply th

e bes

t ca

twalk

com

men

tato

r!

Lastl

y, a s

pecia

l tha

nks t

o ou

r coll

eagu

es at

Beij

er an

d SR

C fo

r all t

heir

supp

ort,

feed

back

and

enth

usias

m.

Curio

us ab

out t

he m

akin

g of?

ww

w.m

odelc

alend

ar.b

logsp

ot.se

CAL

END

AR C

REAT

ORS

INST

ITU

TIO

NAL

SU

PPO

RTTh

e rea

lisat

ion o

f thi

s cale

ndar

wou

ld no

t hav

e bee

n po

ssibl

e wi

thou

t the

fina

ncial

supp

ort o

f the

Sto

ckho

lm R

esilie

nce

Cent

re (S

RC) a

nd th

e Beij

er In

stitu

te o

f Eco

logica

l Ec

onom

ics (B

eijer

). W

e are

grat

eful

for t

he su

ppor

t to

desig

n th

e majo

rity o

f the

illus

tratio

ns (B

eijer

& S

RC) a

s we

ll as t

he la

yout

(SRC

) of t

he ca

lenda

r, wh

ich ar

e des

igned

by

Elsa

Wika

nder

and

Jerk

er L

okra

ntz a

t Azo

te.

Carolin

e Sch

ill

Kiril

l Orac

h

Patri

ck K

eys

Maja

Sch

lüter

Nan

da W

ijerm

ans

Jamila

Haider

Stuart

Kinin

mon

th

Rom

ina M

art

in

Emilie Li

ndkv

ist

Juan-C

arlos

Roc

ha

Steve L

ade

Dieg

o Gala

fassi

Therese Linda

hl

An

ne-S

ophie Crépin