Casualties and smoke emissions from regionaland global nuclear conflict.

About 4000 nuclear warheads in 2012

R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, (2006).

Even small nuclear states can have manywarheads NWS

DeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)

Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998

South Africa 7, dismantled 1989,1979?

North Korea,10?, 2007

India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998

Ionizing radiationemitted γ-rays,neutrons

Thermal radiation, fires ignited 2km from ground zero atHiroshima

Blast wave, destroys brickbuildings 2 km from ground zeroat Hiroshima

High energyradiationemitted γ-rays,neutrons

Thermal radiation,fires ignited 2 kmfrom ground zeroat Hiroshima

Bombs cause 3 types of damage

Blast wave,destroys brickbuildings 2 kmfrom ground zeroat Hiroshima

Destructive power of nuclear weapons:Hiroshima, groundzero

Targeted Areas in the Tokyo-Yokohamamega-city complex

One nuclear explosion can cause orders ofmagnitude more fatalities than previous wars

Israel, 80 (1973) Pakistan, 63 (1971)

Argentina, 318(Falklands)

India, 190 (1971)

Brazil,∞

Egypt, 72 (1973)

Very few 15 kt explosions are needed toproduce fatalities from World War II

U.K., 5China, 6

Japan,14

U.S. , 3 France, 3

Russia>50

Iran, 2. Iran,Iraq war

50 -15 kt weapons can kill as many as peopleas projected for a global war in the 1980s

30001340Mt

50, 0.75Mt

7-19 million people

A 1980s counterforce attackby 3000 weapons

An attack by 50,15 kton weapons

4 million people

Fires in Hiroshima after the atomic blast

Fire storm in Hiroshimaabout three hours afterthe explosionhttp://www.atomicarchive.com

An oily, sooty,radioactive “black rain”fell on Hiroshima afterthe explosion

Fuel loading per person allows smokecalculation

Sooty smoke Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

Smoke generated by 2000 weapons of100 kt yield

China

Russia

U.S.

Smoke generated in a SORT warCountry

attacked,

# of

100 kt weapons

Smoke

generated (Tg)

By Russia

France 200 6.5

Germany 200 7.3

India 200 21.4

Japan 200 11.9

Pakistan 200 11.0

U.K. 200 7.4

U.S. 1000 28.1

By U.S.

Russia 1100 26.9

China 1100 59.5

Total 4400 180

Smoke is observed to go into the uppertroposphere after large fires

The Chisholm (Alberta) PyroCb

28 May 2001Fromm & Servranckx, (GRL, 2003)

Summary• Casualties in a regional war can be large-a war

between India and Pakistan could kill >20 million• An attack on the U.S. with 50, 15kt weapons could

kill ~4 million, comparable to a counterforce attack bythe Soviet Union. Therefore in coming decades acountry with 50 weapons and the means to deliverthem is effectively a superpower.

• A regional conflict between India and Pakistan couldproduce 7 million tons of smoke. This soot can lowertemperatures below any in the last 1000 years anddestroy the ozone layer.

• A global conflict with the SORT arsenal couldproduce 180 million tons of smoke similar to whatwas predicted for the 1986 arsenal, leading to iceage temperatures.

ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETALCONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR

CONFLICTSAND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov

Atmos. Chem. Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007

• and

Based on the Papers:

MASSIVE GLOBAL OZONE LOSS PREDICTEDFOLLOWING REGIONAL NUCLEAR CONFLICT Michael J. Mills, Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Rolando R. Garcia

Pub. Nat. Acad. Science, 105, 5307-5312, 2008