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  • Casualties and smoke emissions from regional and global nuclear conflict.

  • About 4000 nuclear warheads in 2012

    R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, (2006).

  • Even small nuclear states can have many warheads NWS

    DeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)

    Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998

    South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979?

    North Korea, 10?, 2007

    India, 85 (65- 110), 1974, 1998

  • Ionizing radiation emitted γ- rays,neutrons

    Thermal radiation, fires ignited 2 km from ground zero at Hiroshima

    Blast wave, destroys brick buildings 2 km from ground zero at Hiroshima

    High energy radiation emitted γ- rays,neutrons

    Thermal radiation, fires ignited 2 km from ground zero at Hiroshima

    Bombs cause 3 types of damage

    Blast wave, destroys brick buildings 2 km from ground zero at Hiroshima

  • Destructive power of nuclear weapons: Hiroshima, ground zero

  • Targeted Areas in the Tokyo-Yokohama mega-city complex

  • One nuclear explosion can cause orders of magnitude more fatalities than previous wars

    Israel, 80 (1973) Pakistan, 63 (1971)

    Argentina, 318 (Falklands)

    India, 190 (1971)

    Brazil,∞

    Egypt, 72 (1973)

  • Very few 15 kt explosions are needed to produce fatalities from World War II

    U.K., 5 China, 6

    Japan, 14

    U.S. , 3 France, 3

    Russia>50

    Iran, 2. Iran,Iraq war

  • 50 -15 kt weapons can kill as many as people as projected for a global war in the 1980s

    3000 1340Mt

    50, 0.75Mt

    7-19 million people

    A 1980s counterforce attack by 3000 weapons

    An attack by 50, 15 kton weapons

    4 million people

  • Fires in Hiroshima after the atomic blast

    Fire storm in Hiroshima about three hours after the explosion http://www.atomicarchive.com

    An oily, sooty, radioactive “black rain” fell on Hiroshima after the explosion

  • Fuel loading per person allows smoke calculation

  • Sooty smoke Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

  • Smoke generated by 2000 weapons of 100 kt yield

    China

    Russia

    U.S.

  • Smoke generated in a SORT war Country

    attacked,

    # of

    100 kt weapons

    Smoke

    generated (Tg)

    By Russia

    France 200 6.5

    Germany 200 7.3

    India 200 21.4

    Japan 200 11.9

    Pakistan 200 11.0

    U.K. 200 7.4

    U.S. 1000 28.1

    By U.S.

    Russia 1100 26.9

    China 1100 59.5

    Total 4400 180

  • Smoke is observed to go into the upper troposphere after large fires

    The Chisholm (Alberta) PyroCb

    28 May 2001 Fromm & Servranckx, (GRL, 2003)

  • Summary • Casualties in a regional war can be large-a war

    between India and Pakistan could kill >20 million • An attack on the U.S. with 50, 15kt weapons could

    kill ~4 million, comparable to a counterforce attack by the Soviet Union. Therefore in coming decades a country with 50 weapons and the means to deliver them is effectively a superpower.

    • A regional conflict between India and Pakistan could produce 7 million tons of smoke. This soot can lower temperatures below any in the last 1000 years and destroy the ozone layer.

    • A global conflict with the SORT arsenal could produce 180 million tons of smoke similar to what was predicted for the 1986 arsenal, leading to ice age temperatures.

  • ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR

    CONFLICTS AND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov

    Atmos. Chem. Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007

    • and

    Based on the Papers:

    MASSIVE GLOBAL OZONE LOSS PREDICTED FOLLOWING REGIONAL NUCLEAR CONFLICT Michael J. Mills, Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Rolando R. Garcia

    Pub. Nat. Acad. Science, 105, 5307-5312, 2008