ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL,

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world water day, march 22 2010. EPN. ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING. Daniela Freile 1 , Carla Manciati 1,2 , and Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez 1,3. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELINGOVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15 and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data.INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cceres, et. al., 2005.; Smiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15 and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology.STUDY AREA AND BASIC DATA: ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR, SOUTH AMERICABIBLIOGRAPHY:Cceres, B., Maisincho, L., Taupin, J.D., Francou, B., Cadier, E., Delachaux, F., Bucher, R., Villacs, M., Paredes, D., Chazarin, J.P., Garcs, A., y Remy Laval, 2005. Glaciares del Ecuador: Antizana y Carihuayrazo. Balance de masa, Topografa, Meteorologa e Hidrologa. Informe del ao 2004. IRD, INAMHI, EMAAP-QUITO. Quito.Smiond, H., Francou, B., Ayabaca, E., De la Cruz, A. y Ramn Chango. 1998. El Glaciar 15 del Antizana Investigaciones glaciolgicas 1994 1997. IFEA-ORSTOM, ORSTOM-CNRS, EMAAP-QUITO, INAMHI. Quito.Freile, Daniela & Manciati Carla, 2007 Relacin a escala mensual y estacional entre la informacin hidrometeorolgica local y regionaly la fusin de los glaciares tropicales del Ecuador. Casos de estudio: Glaciar15 y Glaciar CRESPOS del nevado Antisana. Tesis de Grado. Escuela Politcnica Nacional.http://www.exploringecuador.com/maps/region_todas.htmECUADORGlacier 15 and Los Crespos study areaSource: INFORME ANUAL 2004 GREATICEDrawn by: Cceres & Villacs, 2005LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INFORMATIONLOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15 and Los Crespos Glaciers.REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronmico de Quito)ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADORGLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Nio and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long-wave radiation.Daniela Freile1, Carla Manciati1,2, and Remigio Galrraga-Snchez1,3world water day, march 22 2010LOCAL INDICES, REGIONAL VARIABLES AND GLOBAL REANALYSISMODELS TO EXPLAIN MELTING IN THE ABLATION ZONE AND LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLESLOCAL AND REGIONAL MODELFULL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELSIMPLIFIED REGIONAL MODELCONCLUSIONS:1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years.2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention.A linear combination of local precipitationusing a 9-month lag at station Paramoand precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15 and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4. A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15 and Los Crespos.5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers.

    LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier.REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region.GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier.Antisana IcecapSouth America1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politcnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2University of Montpellier, France3Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USAEPN