ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL,
1
ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data. INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology. STUDY AREA AND BASIC DATA: ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR, SOUTH AMERICA BIBLIOGRAPHY: Cáceres, B., Maisincho, L., Taupin, J.D., Francou, B., Cadier, E., Delachaux, F., Bucher, R., Villacís, M., Paredes, D., Chazarin, J.P., Garcés, A., y Remy Laval, 2005. Glaciares del Ecuador: Antizana y Carihuayrazo. Balance de masa, Topografía, Meteorología e Hidrología. Informe del año 2004. Sémiond, H., Francou, B., Ayabaca, E., De la Cruz, A. y Ramón Chango. 1998. El Glaciar 15 del Antizana Investigaciones glaciológicas 1994 – 1997 . IFEA-ORSTOM, ORSTOM-CNRS, EMAAP-QUITO, INAMHI. Quito. Freile, Daniela & Manciati Carla, 2007 Relación a escala mensual y estacional entre la información hidrometeorológica local y regionaly la fusión de los glaciares tropicales del Ecuador. Casos de estudio: Glaciar15 y Glaciar “CRESPOS” del nevado Antisana. Tesis de Grado. Escuela Politécnica Nacional. http://www.exploringecuador.com/maps/region_ todas.htm ECUADOR Glacier 15 α and Los Crespos study area Source: INFORME ANUAL 2004 GREATICE Drawn by: Cáceres & Villacís, LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL LOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers. REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito) ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long-wave radiation. Daniela Freile 1 , Carla Manciati 1,2 , and Remigio world water day, march 22 2010 LOCAL INDICES, REGIONAL VARIABLES AND GLOBAL REANALYSIS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES LOCAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FULL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODEL SIMPLIFIED REGIONAL MODEL CONCLUSIONS: 1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years. 2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention. 3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9- month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4.4. A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos. 5.5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high- altitude tropical glaciers. -0.700 -0.500 -0.300 -0.100 0.100 0.300 0.500 0.700 0.900 1.100 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 01/08/1964 01/08/1966 01/08/1968 01/08/1970 01/08/1972 01/08/1974 01/08/1976 01/08/1978 01/08/1980 01/08/1982 01/08/1984 01/08/1986 01/08/1988 01/08/1990 01/08/1992 01/08/1994 01/08/1996 01/08/1998 01/08/2000 01/08/2002 01/08/2004 01/08/2006 Anom alía de Tem peratura (ºC) -Balance de la Zona de Ablación (m m w.e./m onth) Fecha M O D ELIZA C IÓ N DE LA FUSIÓ N VS.VA R IA C IÓ N DE TEM PERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE LA TIER R A (IPC C ) IN VER SO BALANCE O BSERVADO IN VER SO BALANCE CALCULADO Variación de Tem peratura Superficie Terrestre r 2 = 60 % -0.800 -0.600 -0.400 -0.200 0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 01/01/1891 01/01/1896 01/01/1901 01/01/1906 01/01/1911 01/01/1916 01/01/1921 01/01/1926 01/01/1931 01/01/1936 01/01/1941 01/01/1946 01/01/1951 01/01/1956 01/01/1961 01/01/1966 01/01/1971 01/01/1976 01/01/1981 01/01/1986 01/01/1991 01/01/1996 01/01/2001 01/01/2006 Anom alía de Tem peratura (ºC) -Balance de la Zona de Ablación (m m w.e./m onth) Fecha M O DELIZAC IÓ N DE LA FUSIÓ N VS.VA R IA C IÓ N DE TEM PERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE LA TIER R A (IPC C ) IN VER SO BALANCE O BSERVADO IN VER SO BALANCE G ENERADO Variación de Tem peratura de la Superficie Terrestre r 2 = 52 % º LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier. REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region. GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier. Antisa na Icecap South America 1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2 University of Montpellier, France 3 Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA EPN
description
world water day, march 22 2010. EPN. ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING. Daniela Freile 1 , Carla Manciati 1,2 , and Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez 1,3. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL,
ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING
OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data.
OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data.
INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology.
INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology.
STUDY AREA AND BASIC DATA: ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR, SOUTH AMERICA
BIBLIOGRAPHY:Cáceres, B., Maisincho, L., Taupin, J.D., Francou, B., Cadier, E., Delachaux, F., Bucher, R., Villacís, M., Paredes, D., Chazarin, J.P., Garcés, A., y Remy Laval, 2005. Glaciares del Ecuador: Antizana y Carihuayrazo. Balance de masa, Topografía, Meteorología e Hidrología. Informe del año 2004. IRD, INAMHI, EMAAP-QUITO. Quito.Sémiond, H., Francou, B., Ayabaca, E., De la Cruz, A. y Ramón Chango. 1998. El Glaciar 15 del Antizana Investigaciones glaciológicas 1994 – 1997. IFEA-ORSTOM, ORSTOM-CNRS, EMAAP-QUITO, INAMHI. Quito.Freile, Daniela & Manciati Carla, 2007 Relación a escala mensual y estacional entre la información hidrometeorológica local y regionaly la fusión de los glaciares tropicales del Ecuador. Casos de estudio: Glaciar15 y Glaciar “CRESPOS” del nevado Antisana. Tesis de Grado. Escuela Politécnica Nacional.
http://www.exploringecuador.com/maps/region_todas.htm
ECUADOR
Glacier 15 α and Los Crespos study areaSource: INFORME ANUAL 2004 GREATICEDrawn by: Cáceres & Villacís, 2005
LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INFORMATIONLOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers.
LOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers.
REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito)
REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito)
ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR
GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long-wave radiation.
GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long-wave radiation.
Daniela Freile1, Carla Manciati1,2, and Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez1,3
world water day, march 22 2010
LOCAL INDICES, REGIONAL VARIABLES AND GLOBAL REANALYSIS
MODELS TO EXPLAIN MELTING IN THE ABLATION ZONE AND LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES
LOCAL AND REGIONAL MODEL
FULL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODEL
SIMPLIFIED REGIONAL MODEL
CONCLUSIONS:1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years.2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention.3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9-month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4.4. A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos.5.5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers.
CONCLUSIONS:1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years.2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention.3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9-month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4.4. A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos.5.5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers.
-0.700
-0.500
-0.300
-0.100
0.100
0.300
0.500
0.700
0.900
1.100
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
01/0
8/19
64
01/0
8/19
66
01/0
8/19
68
01/0
8/19
70
01/0
8/19
72
01/0
8/19
74
01/0
8/19
76
01/0
8/19
78
01/0
8/19
80
01/0
8/19
82
01/0
8/19
84
01/0
8/19
86
01/0
8/19
88
01/0
8/19
90
01/0
8/19
92
01/0
8/19
94
01/0
8/19
96
01/0
8/19
98
01/0
8/20
00
01/0
8/20
02
01/0
8/20
04
01/0
8/20
06
An
om
alía de T
emp
eratura (ºC
)
-Bal
ance
de
la Z
on
a d
e A
bla
ció
n (
mm
w.e
./m
on
th)
Fecha
MODELIZACIÓN DE LA FUSIÓN VS. VARIACIÓN DE TEMPERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE LA TIERRA (IPCC)
INVERSO BALANCE OBSERVADO INVERSO BALANCE CALCULADO Variación de Temperatura Superficie Terrestre
r2 = 60 %
-0.800
-0.600
-0.400
-0.200
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
01/0
1/18
91
01/0
1/18
96
01/0
1/19
01
01/0
1/19
06
01/0
1/19
11
01/0
1/19
16
01/0
1/19
21
01/0
1/19
26
01/0
1/19
31
01/0
1/19
36
01/0
1/19
41
01/0
1/19
46
01/0
1/19
51
01/0
1/19
56
01/0
1/19
61
01/0
1/19
66
01/0
1/19
71
01/0
1/19
76
01/0
1/19
81
01/0
1/19
86
01/0
1/19
91
01/0
1/19
96
01/0
1/20
01
01/0
1/20
06
An
om
alía de T
emp
eratura (ºC
)
-Bal
ance
de
la Z
on
a d
e A
bla
ció
n (
mm
w.e
./m
on
th)
Fecha
MODELIZACIÓN DE LA FUSIÓN VS. VARIACIÓN DE TEMPERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE LA TIERRA (IPCC)
INVERSO BALANCE OBSERVADO INVERSO BALANCE GENERADO Variación de Temperatura de la Superficie Terrestre
r2 = 52 %
º
LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier.REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region.GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier.
LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier.REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region.GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier.
Antisana Icecap
South America
1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2University of Montpellier, France3Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA
1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2University of Montpellier, France3Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA
EPN
