ttbar τ + jets:Update on QCD Estimation

William EdsonSUNY at Albany

Intra-PDF Uncertainty Results

CT10: ± 2.32093

MSTW: + 1.29293 / - 1.38225

NNPDF: ± 1.20644

Envelope Results

Therefore the final uncertainty is equivalent to the CT10 Intra Unc: ± 2.32093

Unc Var. Up (pb) Var. Down (pb)

Linear Corrrection 9.83 9.83

JER 3.83 3.83

JRE 0.04 0.04

JES 19.83 18.86

JVF SF 0.76 0.74

Btag SF 4.27 3.92

MET 4.62 5.31

Tau Trigger SF 4.22 5.38

TES 1.79 1.79

Tau Eveto SF 0.04 0.04

W+jets Normalization 11.06 10.63

QCD Selection 4.80 4.80

QCD Template Bin/Range 4.77 9.02

MC Generator 11.34 11.34

ISR/FSR 7.39 7.39

PDF 2.32 2.32

Trigger Efficiency 4.83 8.00

TauID 4.00 4.00

Lumi 3.00 3.00

Unc Var. Up (percent)

Var. Down (percent)

Group 1-prong Up

Group 1-prong Down

Linear Corrrection

5.90 5.90 - -

JER 2.30 2.30 1.0 1.0

JRE 0.02 0.02 1.0 1.0

JES 11.90 11.32 10.0 10.8

JVF SF 0.45 0.44 < 1 < 1

Btag SF 2.56 2.35 2.0 2.0

MET 2.77 3.19 < 1 < 1

Tau Trigger SF 2.53 3.22 5.5 4.7

TES 1.08 1.08 2.1 2.1

Tau Eveto SF 0.03 0.03 - -

W+jets Normalization

6.64 6.37 4.1 4.1

QCD Template Shape

2.88 2.88 1.8 1.8

QCD Template Bin/Range

2.86 5.41 5.1 5.1

MC Generator 6.80 6.80 4.2 4.2

ISR/FSR 4.43 4.43 3.1 3.1

PDF 1.39 1.39 2 2

Trigger Efficiency

2.9 4.8 2.9 4.8

TauID 2.4 2.4 4 4

Lumi 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Fit Selection Results

Final Result:

Back-up

QCD Bin/RangeSample Fraction Cor.

Fractionσ Variation Variation

(%)

Nominal 0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 - -

Range+1 0.685245 0.685212649 165.2819571 -1.43420016 -0.860264648

Range+2 0.684087 0.684111365 165.0163135 -1.69984376 -1.019603494

Range+3 0.680152 0.680369092 164.1136299 -2.60252733 -1.561052853

Range-1 0.708654 0.707475131 170.6519493 3.9357921 2.360774244

Range-2 0.674656 0.675142273 162.8528551 -3.86330214 -2.317293177

Range-3 0.686839 0.686728578 165.6476184 -1.06853877 -0.640932939

Bins+1 0.712367 0.711006277 171.5037064 4.787549171 2.871676777

Bins+2 0.66001 0.6612136 159.4930829 -7.2230743 -4.332558059

Bins-1 0.652323 0.653903091 157.7296957 -8.98646149 -5.390276285

Bins-2 0.680357 0.680564051 164.1606566 -2.55550061 -1.532845199

Range increases/decreases in steps of 20GeVBin amount increases/decreases in steps of 5

MC Generator

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Variation (absolute)

Variation (%)

Nominal0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 - -

AlpHerwig (baseline) 0.704682 0.70369767 141.7262448 13.69472173 8.214393829MC@NLO (105200) 0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 11.29519073 6.775102618

SYST_AtF_105860 0.721128 0.719338184 147.5099697 4.809637762 2.884925998

SYST_AtF_117050 0.663466 0.664500333 142.700332 - -

SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.696086638 155.4209665 - -

1.1) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and MC@NLO+fHerwig sample 105200 (MC@NLO(105200)) 1.2) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and the fullsim mc11c ALPGEN+HERWIG samples (AlpHerwig(baseline)) 1.3) AtlFast2 mc11b POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_AtF_117050) POWHEG+fHerwig sample 105860 (SYST_AtF_105860)

Mean Values of Ensemble Fits

Input Fraction

Previous Gaussian

Mean Output Fraction

Unc. Gaussian Mean

Output Fraction

Unc.

0.1 -0.0998291 0.00487524 -0.0446980 0.00328233

0.2 0.0501427 0.00241776 0.0951311 0.00259107

0.3 0.204145 0.00187353 0.238714 0.00232490

0.4 0.335251 0.00170598 0.375513 0.00173264

0.5 0.460622 0.00147548 0.493003 0.00146445

0.6 0.580640 0.00134429 0.604560 0.00130854

0.7 0.689419 0.00114811 0.710087 0.00111043

0.8 0.794341 0.00116489 0.805370 0.00103862

0.9 0.894616 0.00111430 0.903587 0.000966135

Linearity Test to All Values

Y(0): -0.127757 ± 0.00142161 Slope: 1.18358 ± 0.00252649 Chi2: 34.4482 NDF: 8997

Adjust Range for Linear Fit?

Range Y(0) Slope Corrected σ

0.1 – 0.9 -0.127757

1.18358 166.9633031

0.2 – 0.9 -0.100011

1.14196 167.1877651

0.3 – 0.9 -0.066934

2

1.0947 167.1171989

0.4 – 0.9 -0.035256

1

1.0515 166.7161572

Top Mass

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Variation (absolute)

Variation (%)

Nominal0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 - -

SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.696086638 155.4209665 - - 167.5

0.680298 0.680507941 174.4111694 18.99020294 11.39073936170.0

0.689551 0.689307751 163.0755472 7.654580765 4.591385078175.0

0.694819 0.694317737 147.5410892 -7.87987725 -4.726522839177.5

0.673263 0.673817499 136.8370372 -18.5839292 -11.14704751

𝑠𝑓=(𝜎 (𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑟𝑒𝑓 . ) {=177.31 }𝜎 (𝑟𝑒𝑓 )𝑖 )∗𝑘𝑓𝑎𝑐 𝑖∗𝜎 (𝐹𝐸 )𝑖∗( 𝐿𝑢𝑚𝑖

𝑁 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙)

MC Tau PlotsMC Tau Count MC Tau Children

pdgIDMC Tau Children Count

Leptonic pdgID values: e → 11, μ → 13, τ → 15

MT Signal vs Control vs MC Backgrounds

Samples Normalized to Own Integrals

Samples Normalized to Sum of Integrals

Fits/Hists for Ensemble Tests

Cutflow C0: GRL C1: Trigger C2: Primary vertex with ntracks > 4 C3: Electron/muon overlap C4: Jet cleaning C5: Lepton Veto C6: tau n ≥ 1 C7: njets >= 4 with eta < 2.5 and |jvf| > 0.75 C8: MET > 60GeV C9: MT < 80GeV C10: >= 1 bjet

C11: Trigger matched tau n ≥ 1 and pT >= 40GeV C12: MC tau object match

Chi-squared minimization

Equation:

N(x): total number of events of type x for distribution n(x)i: number of events in bin of type x frac(Sig): fraction of N(Remain) expected to be Signal binfrac(x)i: fraction of events in bin of type x expected

from MC or template σi: uncertainty in bin i

2

i

iiii2

σ

)n(OB)D)binfrac(QC*N(Remain)*frac(QCD)g)binfrac(si*N(Remain)*(frac(Sig)n(Data)χ

N(OB) - N(Data) N(Remain)

frac(Sig) - 1 frac(QCD)

Chi-squared minimization cont.

σi determined using factors for: bin error:

data signal, MC QCD template other backgrounds, MC

statistical error: data: signal region other backgrounds, MC signal, MC QCD template (uncertainty of background region

data and all MC background region carried through via default SumW2

Highest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 9.818 p-value: 0.7753 ndf: 14 chi/ndf: 0.7012

2nd Highest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 13.66 p-value: 0.5517 ndf: 15 chi/ndf: 0.9107

Dijet Mass reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 15.47 p-value: 0.6297 ndf: 18 chi/ndf: 0.8594

MET

Results for plot: chi-square: 15.87 p-value: 0.1971 ndf: 12 chi/ndf: 1.323

Closest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 14.39 p-value: 0.2123 ndf: 11 chi/ndf: 1.308

New Event Selection Verification (Only uses MC so Excludes QCD)

Cut Sig Evts

Fakes Sig Eff. Fake Ratio

Rej Fact.

Sig/sqrt(Bkg

d)

Sig/Sqrt(Sig

+Bkgd)

C5Lep Veto

5863 1451086

- - - 4.867 4.857

C6ntaus >

0

5863 138276 1 0.09529 0.04240 15.77 15.44

C7njets

3191 11025 0.5443 0.07973 0.5318 30.39 26.76

C8MET

2583 7598 0.8095 0.6892 0.41998 29.63 25.60

C9MT

1892 3968 0.7325 0.5222 0.6510 30.04 24.72

C10bjet

1650 1230 0.8721 0.30998 1.538 47.05 30.75

C12Trig

match

941 335 0.5703 0.2724 4.925 51.41 26.34