EDUCATION :-Thcu*arak Percent,^

2&0λ COMPANIES WANTED TO HIRE THIS MANY ENGINEERS . . . .

3d

REASON: BIG SAG IN ENGINEERING GRADUATES . . . .

* Î.952 -ς'r.V5l953S:< ' -;-l954 ; - .M .9^^19^P| ^v'x* v^r ~ <ι·* ^ Source: > Engineers* Joint -Council ^K^P^mi^- 1 - , -»-<**• ~~* Estimate!

More Grads but Not Enough Although engineering enrollments are on the up­swing, new graduate supplies won't meet demands

A SIZEABLE GAP between the demand for new engineers and the supply of engineering graduates threatens Ameri­can industry until 1960. Although en­rollments have taken an upturn, an­nual engineer crops beture 1960 will even fall short of annual demands be­tween 1950 and 1957.

These are the conclusions of Deutsch & Shea, Inc., technical manpower con­sultants who have analyzed engineer supply and demand between 1950 and 1960. Their survey aims at shedding some light on the confused subject of shortages by analyzing the character, size, and activities of the U. S. engi­neer labor force.

From 1950 to 1957, the survey states, engineering employment rose 44r/<. Total employment, however, rose only 1 3 % . The way in which the U. S. economy expanded in these years ex­plains the difference between the in­creases. Industries earmarked a large per cent of their budgets for research and development programs and intro­duced techniques which upped the ratio of engineer man-hours to total man-hours. Those industries employ­ing large numbers of engineers ex­

panded more than others. All these developments set u p the big problem— that of finding enough engineers to fill the jobs available.

Deutsch & Shea points out that total additions to the engineer labor force from 1950-57 were^substantial . An average of 46,000 entered each year. The supply breakdown:

Supply in 1950 Additions Losses Supply in 1957

534,424 321,556

84,372 771,608

• Demand Outpaces Supply. But looking at the growth of this labor force in the light of increased demand, says Deutsch & Shea, what is striking is the failure of supply to keep pace.

First of all, starting salaries for engi­neers rose much more substantially than those of production workers and more than four times as much as the cost of living. Industries polled in 1951 through 1956 reported a sizeable difference between the number of en­gineers they wanted to hire and the number they expected to get.

During this period, college gradu­

ates entered engineering a t the rate of 33,600 a year. Only 6500 were lost through death, retirement, or trans­fer to other fields. The total number of graduates rose 6 5 % from 291,000 in 1950 to 480,000 in 1957, still less than 65% of the total engineering labor force of 771,600 men. Employers were forced to hire nongraduates for engi­neering jobs or leave the jobs unfilled.

• Demand Relates t o the Boom. Deutsch & Shea shows that the demand for certain types of engineers related direcdy to the boom within the in­dustries usually employing them. Largest increases in demand came from the aircraft and electrical indus­tries, but the need for mechanical, chemical, and metallurgical engineers also increased. And since 1950, the supply of various types of engineering groups expanded at markedly different rates. For example, the supply of chemical engineers increased 60 .6% for these years. Mining engineers, on the other hand, increased only 13 .2%.

Most severe shortages during 1950— 57 were in aeronautical and electrical engineering, even though the supply in these fields increased 39.4 and 51.0%, respectively. Substantial shortages existed for mechanical and metallurgical engineers, and a notice­able gap remained between demand and supply of chemical engineers.

• The Gap Will Increase . Wha t of the future? Assuming that spending

9 4 C & E N DEC. 9, 1957

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EDUCATION

for research and development and new plants and equipment does not fall be­low last year's record level, says Deutsch & Shea, it seems likely that the demand for engineers from April 1957 to April 1960 will certainly exceed 46,000 a year.

As in the past , companies will fill the deficit by employing partly trained men for engineering jobs. I n high-skill areas, shortages of trained men will either not be filled at all, or what is more likely, will b e filled b y graduate engineers with only a partial knowledge of the job in question. In less-skill areas, men without college degrees \vi31 take engineering jobs.

Deutsch & Shea sees one bright spot in the picture—the fact tha t numbers of engineering graduates are increasing year by year, in contrast to a steady decline from 1950 to 1955. The aver­age annual engineering crop will reach 40,300, compared to t he 33,600 of the preceding period. Graduates will make up 68.5% of all new entrants, non-graduates about 19%. The supply picture in 1960:

1957 figure Total additions Total losses Supply in 1960

771,600 153,800 48,000

877,400

The supply of graduates, the survey points out, depends upon t h e total size of college classes and the ratio of engi­neering graduates to all graduates. Be­tween 1950 and 1955, the number of engineering graduates declined 5 7 % , while the total number of college gradu­ates fell only 3 4 % . T h e acute shortage of engineering graduates during the early 1950's stemmed not only from the small number of graduates in all fields, but to the low ratio of engineering graduates to other graduates.

• Character of the Shortage. This ratio, according to Deutsch & Shea, de­pends in turn upon t h e student's view of conditions within the engineering profession. I n the late 40's, condi­tions in engineering seemed unattrac­tive, and the ratio of engineers to other students took a downturn. In the early '50's, conditions became more attrac­tive, and the ratio increased.

However, engineer shortages oc­curred after the outbreak of the Ko­rean war in 1950, and the number of beginning students in engineering did not rise substantially until the fall of 1953. Here, says Deutsch & Shea, lies t he "prolonged character" of the shortage—in the time lag between the

9 6 C&EN DEC. 9, 1957

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EDUCATION

change in market conditions and the students' concept of "these conditions.

There is no reason, Deutsch & Shea believes, why this t i m e lag has to operate for seven years, as it did in the early 1950's. Business people can re­duce trie period by quickly adjusting employment conditions to the changes in the supply-demand ratio. School officials can speed up information about employment conditions to their stu­dents. And action by both groups can influence the ratio of engineering stu­dents to other students and the rate of student transfers from engineering to other fields and vice versa. If condi­tions are kept at an attractive level, and if the dividends are explained, then the gap between engineer de­mand and the supply of graduates can b e bridged early in t h e 1960's.

Record Institute Season New National Science Foundation

awards of $5,340,000 will launch a record institute season next year. Some 5000 high school and 250 col­lege teachers of science and mathe­matics will benefit from these summer programs.

NSF will sponsor 108 institutes at 104 colleges and universities. Ninety-nine will b e open only to high school teachers, four to both high school and college teachers, and five more to col­lege teachers only. Twelve programs, jointly sponsored b y the foundation and the Atomic Energy Commission, will offer courses in radiation biology for high school teachers. Sixty-two will offer programs in chemistry.

Begun experimentally in 1953, the institute programs ha^ve expanded each summer. Last year^ NSF supported 9 6 institutes with grants totaling $4.8 million. Other foundation programs, year-round institutes, also offer supple­mentary training to high school sci­ence and math teachers. Latest grants for financing these institutes totaled $4,350,000 (C&EN, Nov . 18, page 9 4 ) . Both programs aim at strengthening the training of scientists and stimulat­ing science interests among students.

Foundation grants to each summer institute will cover tuition cost and other fees for each teacher—about 50 per institute. Most schools will pay stipends directly to teachers at a maxi­mum rate of $75 p e r week. Allow­ances for dependents and travel also will b e provided.

9 8 C&EN D EC. 9, 19 57