Martin Elvis - Universities Space Research Association · 2019-04-04 · Bigelow, Axiom,...
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Martin Elvis Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian (CfA) The Flagship Problem • A rank-ordered list of flagship missions in Astro2020 Decadal Survey will lead to one flagship every decade or more. • We must wait decades, not years, to follow up JWST discoveries in X-rays, Υ-rays, UV and the far-IR. •Do we want to repeat this experience with Astro2020? • Does a visionary program require “one big mission”? Six ”NewSpace” Capabilities Where Commercial Space helps Astrophysics All in need of careful study 21 st Century Astrophysics is Inescapably Pan-Wavelength The discovery of gravitational waves from a neutron star merger is exemplary: LIGO and VIRGO made the GW detection; rapid follow-ups in: gamma-ray, X-ray, optical and IR gave far greater physics understanding. The Great Observatories are old. Soon we will lose matched capability across the spectrum we have enjoyed for decades. To regain pan-wavelength capability we need multiple comparably sensitive telescopes operating simultaneously -- as we have now. by bringing costs down • Commercial space has already brought launch costs down by a factor 3. 1. Launch cost not an issue. 2. Larger mass to LEO: 30 mt missions conceivable (c.f. JWST 6.5mt) 3. Wider fairings: 8-meter non-lightweighted, non-folding, mirrors à Cheaper. Mid-2020s? 4. Cheaper Satellites from Internet Constellations in early 2020s 5. On-orbit Servicing, but affordable, from Commercial Crew program by 2020s. 6. On-orbit assembly by 2030, from Commercial space stations? --- See panels below for more details --- The Decadal Problem COMMERCIAL SPACE provides a solution Martin Elvis email: [email protected] twitter: martinselvis2 Contact me: [email protected] How can we escape this bind? • Three approaches will help: balance, tensioning, and • embracing commercial space. • Here we discuss Commercial Space. ULA Delta IV 5 m Blue Origin New Glenn 7 m SpaceX Super Heavy 9 m 3. Faring diameter 2. High Mass to LEO 4. Spacecraft Cost 5. On-orbit Servicing 6. On-orbit assembly 1. Cheap launch & $/kg to LEO Falcon 9 (reusable) 23 mt Falcon Heavy (reusable) 29 mt New Glenn (reusable) 32-38 mt Falcon Super Heavy (fully resuable) 64 mt Delta IV Heavy - 28 mt Vulcan - 35 mt Delta IV M – 11-13 mt c.f. Fermi: 4.3 mt (Delta-II) Chandra 5.8 mt JWST 6.5 mt $350M $90M now now 2021 ? 2023 ? 20-30-50 mt missions become possible at a reasonable cost* Mission costs can go down Minimum mass no longer the driver Can use mass to bring down cost E.g. Much larger solar panels à cheaper electronics Rugged structures à simplify test cycles *cost to NASA ~50% extra (for now) Was ~$10k/kg to LEO for decades Now 3X cheaper with Falcon 9 Launch becomes a small factor Modest missions can be heavier Larger mirrors without folding à cheaper Internet Constellations need ~1000 satellites each Mass produced @ 1/day by OneWeb à ~$2 M each, 150 kg à (c.f. NuSTAR 350 kg) Design missions to spacecraft. Explorers at Cubesat cost? Technical Success with Hubble Overly costly >~$1B/servicing mission Now Commercial Crew enables human servicing at ~Explorer cost à Longer lived, more capable flagships LEO works for many bands Crew Dragon DM-1 March 2019 3 plausible companies developing commercial space stations Bigelow, Axiom, Nanoracks/ULA for mid-2020s Safe platform for human assembly of large structures: Antennae for sub-mm to radio Trusses for large multi-element mirrors LUVOIR, interferometers Axiom MadeinSpace HST-SM4 May 2009 NASA Falcon Heavy 1st launch Feb 6 2018 OneWeb constellation OneWeb & 2021 ? • Savings should be fully realized by 2030. c.f. Astro2020 1 st big new start NET 2027. • More, powerful, missions for the same budget. • Truly large, LUVOIR-scale, telescopes possible at an affordable price in 2030s. • Astro2020 Decadal needs to consider all these possibilities. A new challenge. • NASA needs to study them carefully. ~mid-2020s ~2030 ~2020 Further Reading: Short: “Has Astronomy Peaked? A focus on costly space telescopes is hurting the field” Forum, Scientific American, April 2018. Long: “What can space resources do for astronomy and planetary science?” Space Policy, 37, 65 [arXiv:1608.01004]
Transcript of Martin Elvis - Universities Space Research Association · 2019-04-04 · Bigelow, Axiom,...
Martin Elvis Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian (CfA)
The Flagship Problem• A rank-ordered list of flagship missions in Astro2020 Decadal Survey will lead to one flagship every decade or more.
• We must wait decades, not years, to follow up JWST discoveries in X-rays, Υ-rays, UV and the far-IR. •Do we want to repeat this experience with Astro2020?• Does a visionary program require “one big mission”?
Six ”NewSpace” CapabilitiesWhere Commercial Space helps Astrophysics
All in need of careful study
21st Century Astrophysics is Inescapably Pan-WavelengthThe discovery of gravitational waves from a neutron star merger is exemplary:
LIGO and VIRGO made the GW detection; rapid follow-ups in:gamma-ray, X-ray, optical and IR gave far greater physics understanding.
The Great Observatories are old.Soon we will lose matched capability across the spectrum we have enjoyed for decades.
To regain pan-wavelength capability we need multiple comparably sensitive telescopes
operating simultaneously -- as we have now.
by bringing costs down• Commercial space has already brought launch costs down by a factor 3.
1. Launch cost not an issue.
2. Larger mass to LEO: 30 mt missions conceivable (c.f. JWST 6.5mt)
3. Wider fairings: 8-meter non-lightweighted, non-folding, mirrors à Cheaper. Mid-2020s?
4. Cheaper Satellites from Internet Constellations in early 2020s
5. On-orbit Servicing, but affordable, from Commercial Crew program by 2020s.
6. On-orbit assembly by 2030, from Commercial space stations?
--- See panels below for more details ---
The Decadal Problem COMMERCIAL SPACE provides a solution
Martin Elvisemail:
[email protected]: martinselvis2
Contact me: [email protected]
How can we escape this bind?• Three approaches will help: balance, tensioning, and • embracing commercial space. • Here we discuss Commercial Space.
ULADelta IV
5 m
Blue OriginNew Glenn
7 m
SpaceXSuper Heavy
9 m
3.Faring diameter
2.High Mass
to LEO
4.Spacecraft Cost
5.On-orbit Servicing
6.On-orbit assembly
1.Cheap launch& $/kg to LEO
Falc
on 9
(reu
sabl
e) 2
3 m
t
Falc
on H
eavy
(reu
sabl
e) 2
9 m
t
New
Gle
nn (r
eusa
ble)
32-
38 m
t
Falc
on S
uper
Hea
vy (f
ully
resu
able
) 64
mt
Del
ta IV
Hea
vy -
28 m
t
Vulc
an -
35 m
t
Delta
IV M
–11
-13
mt
c.f. Fermi: 4.3 mt (Delta-II)Chandra 5.8 mtJWST 6.5 mt
$350M
$90Mnow
now
2021?
2023?
20-30-50 mt missionsbecome possible
at a reasonable cost*
Mission costs can go downMinimum mass no longer the driverCan use mass to bring down cost
E.g. Much larger solar panelsà cheaper electronics
Rugged structures à simplify test cycles
*cost to NASA ~50% extra(for now)
Was ~$10k/kg to LEO for decadesNow 3X cheaper with Falcon 9Launch becomes a small factorModest missions can be heavier
Larger mirrorswithout foldingà cheaper
Internet Constellationsneed ~1000 satellites each
Mass produced @ 1/day by OneWebà ~$2 M each, 150 kgà (c.f. NuSTAR 350 kg)
Design missions to spacecraft.Explorers at Cubesat cost?
Technical Success with HubbleOverly costly >~$1B/servicing mission
Now Commercial Crew
enables human servicing
at ~Explorer costà Longer lived, more capable flagships
LEO works for many bands
Crew Dragon DM-1March 2019
3 plausible companies developing commercial space stations
Bigelow, Axiom, Nanoracks/ULA
for mid-2020s
Safe platform for human assembly
of large structures:
Antennae for sub-mm to radio
Trusses for large multi-element mirrors
LUVOIR, interferometers
Axiom
MadeinSpace
HST-SM4 May 2009
NASA
Falcon Heavy 1st launch
Feb 6 2018
OneWeb constellation
OneWeb
&
2021?
• Savings should be fully realized by 2030. c.f. Astro2020 1st big new start NET 2027.
• More, powerful, missions for the same budget.
• Truly large, LUVOIR-scale, telescopes possible at an affordable price in 2030s.
• Astro2020 Decadal needs to consider all these possibilities. A new challenge.
• NASA needs to study them carefully.
~mid-2020s ~2030~2020
Further Reading:Short: “Has Astronomy Peaked? A focus on costly space telescopes is hurting the field” Forum, Scientific American, April 2018.
Long: “What can space resources do for astronomy and planetary science?” Space Policy, 37, 65 [arXiv:1608.01004]
