Άσκηση
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Transcript of Άσκηση
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1: project manager , . 2 : ) , ) . :
(1), 20% 2 (11), 50% 4 (12) 30% 6 (13).
(2), 20 1 (21), 40% 3 (22) 40% 10 (23).
2 : 1: (), 2: . ) , .
2 0,9
4 0,6
6 0,4
1 1
3 0,9
10 0,6
0,5 4
0,4 3
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21
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, ; 11 = 0,2 x 2 = 0,4 E21 = 0,2 x 1 = 0,2 12 = 0,5 x 4 = 2 E22 = 0,4 x 3 = 1,2 13 = 0,3 x 6 = 1,8 E23 = 0,4 x 10 = 4 ()= 11 + 12 + 13 = 4,2 ()= 21 + 22 + 23 = 5,4 ( ) ; 50% 2 . ) , : U(E21) = U(1) = 1 U(E23) = U(10) = 0 - 11 22 90% . 11 = 2 22 = 3 U (K.E. = ) 90% U (.E. = ) 100% - 90% = 10% U(E11) = U(E22) = U(2 ) = U (3 ) = 90% x U(1) + 10 x U(10) = 90% - 12 40% . 12 = 4 U (K.E. = ) 60% U (.E. = ) 100% 60% = 40% U(E12) = U (4 ) = 40% x U(1) + 60% x U (10) = 60% - 13 60% . 13 = 6 U (K.E. = ) 100% - 60% = 40% U (.E. = ) 60% U(E13) = U (6 ) = 40% x U(1) + 60% x U (10) = 40%
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, . ; . ( )= 0.2 x 0.9 + 0.5 x 0.6 + 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.6 ( )= 0.2 x 1 + 0.4 x 0.9 + 0.4 x 0.6 = 0.8 . ) , , ( ). , ; . 40% 10 . ) 2 . ; ; 60% .
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) ; . .
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2: project manager /. , , 2 , , , , , 2 . , .
/ /
1 -1 0,2 2 0,3 6 0,5
2 -10 0,3 3 0,2 10 0,5
) , (EMV);
= 0,3
= 0,2
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EMV ( 1) = -1 x 0.2 + 2 x 0.3 + 6 x 0.5 = 3.4 EMV ( 2) = -10 x 0.3 + 3 x 0.2 + 10 x 0.5 = 2.3 1 EMV ( 1) > EMV ( 2) ) . 1 .