http://www.inp.demokritos.gr/~vayaki/thermansi.htm

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AlbedoH2OCO2 +15C 390Watts/m^2 5C 338 = 5.67108W m2 K4 Energy budget .N2 78.084%O2 20.946%Ar 0.934% 0.03768%2~0.40% 1%-4% 1,366 watts /m**2,

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the 400 years following each minimum in the record that leads to a sustained sharp rise There were 10 of them; the first five are plotted in cyan and the more recent 5 in blue. The hatched black line is the average of the 5 recent (blue) spikes. The red dots are the uptick at the end of GISP2 and HadSST, spliced at 1850.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/01/whats-up-next/#more-42538

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GCMs or General Circulation Models, weather turned into climate models by increasing grids and approximations.Typical 200kmX200kmX20km , 20 minute steps.

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1. Earths Rotational Energy; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotational_energy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_rotation http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6h.htmlresults in day and night; http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Why_does_rotation_cause_day_and_nightcauses the Coriolis Effect; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effectimparts Planetary Vorticity on the oceans; http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter12/chapter12_01.htmand manifests as Ocean Gyres; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_gyrethe Antarctic Circumpolar Current; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circumpolar_Current http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Conveyor_belt.svgand Arctic Ocean circulation: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=441&cid=47170&ct=61&article=20727 http://www.john-daly.com/polar/flows.jpgEarths Rotational Energy influences Atmospheric Circulation; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulationincluding the Jet Stream; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_streamWesterlies; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WesterliesTradewinds; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_windTropical Cyclones; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cycloneTornadoes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoand Polar Vortices; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortexwhich are caused when an area of low pressure sits at the rotation pole of a planet. This causes air to spiral down from higher in the atmosphere, like water going down a drain. http://www.universetoday.com/973/what-venus-and-saturn-have-in-common/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/30/earths-climate-system-is-ridiculously-complex-with-draft-link-tutorial/

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However, model outputs at annual and climatic (30 year) scales are irrelevant with reality; also, they do not reproduce the natural overyear fluctuation and, generally, underestimate the variance and the Hurst coefficient of the observed series; none of the models proves to be systematically better than the others.

The huge negative values of coefficients of efficiency at those scales show that model predictions are much poorer that an elementary prediction based on the time average.

This makes future climate projections not credible.

The performance of the models at local scale at 55 stations worldwide (in addition tothe 8 stations used in Koutsoyiannis et al., 2008) is poor regarding all statisticalindicators at the seasonal, annual and climatic time scales. In most cases the observedvariability metrics (standard deviation and Hurst coefficient) are underestimated. The performance of the models (both the TAR and AR4 ones) at a large spatial scale,i.e. the contiguous USA, is even worse. None of the examined models reproduces the overyear fluctuations of the arealtemperature of USA (gradual increase before 1940, falling trend until the early 1970s,slight upward trend thereafter); most overestimate the annual mean (by up to4C) and predict a rise more intense than reality during the later 20th century. On the climatic scale, the model whose results for temperature are closest to reality(PCM20C3M) has an efficiency of 0.05, virtually equivalent to an elementaryprediction based on the historical mean; its predictive capacity against other indicators(e.g. maximum and minimum monthly temperature) is worse. The predictive capacity of GCMs against the areal precipitation is even poorer(overestimation by about 100 to 300 mm). All efficiency values at all time scales arestrongly negative, while correlations vary from negative to slightly positive. Contrary to the common practice of climate modellers and IPCC, here comparisons aremade in terms of actual values and not departures from means (anomalies). Theenormous differences from reality (up to 6C in minimum temperature and 300 mm inannual precipitation) would have been concealed if departures from mean had beentaken.

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/900/2/documents/2009EGU_ClimatePr.pdf

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Figure 11: Global sea level measured by surface gauges between 1807 and 2002 (24) and by satellite between 1993 and 2006 (25). Satellite measurements are shown in gray and agree with tide gauge measurements. The overall trend is an increase of 7 inches per century. Intermediate trends are 9, 0, 12, 0, and 12 inches per century, respectively. This trend lags the temperature increase, so it predates the increase in hydrocarbon use even more than is shown. It is unaffected by the very large increase in hydrocarbon use.

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Mauna Loa CO2

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http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25.

Friis-Christenson and Lassen

24

Armagh , Ireland

El Nino Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Image: La Nia is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. The colder than normal water is depicted in this image in blue. During a La Nia stronger than normal trade winds bring cold water up to the surface of the ocean. Credit: NASA

,Arctic Oscillation, a pressure index

Wisconcin U., . .

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Spaghetti graphs

Spaghetti graphs

Climate Gate etchttp://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate/

IPCC

Climate Gate 2009 IPCC .

Gates du jour

UK met

UK2 met

armagh

Central england

UHI

Station quality

USA urban versus rural