Τεχνική Και Θεμελιώδης Ανάλυση μετοχών και εταιριών

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Στην μελέτη αυτή θα παρουσιάσουμε μερικούς βασικούς κανόνες και δείκτες για τεχνική ανάλυση μετοχών- δεικτών και θεμελιώδη ανάλυση εταιριών. Θα λάβουμε τις παρελθούσες τιμές για μια μετοχή και έπειτα με τα κατάλληλα εργαλεία και μεθόδους της τεχνικής ανάλυσης (Technical Analysis) θα προσδιορίσουμε την πορεία της μετοχής. Παράλληλα θα εξετάζουμε και μερικά οικονομικά μεγέθη της εταιρίας ώστε να προβούμε σε θεμελιώδη ανάλυση (Fundamental Analysis), έχοντας έτσι μια ολοκληρωμένη εικόνα για την πορεία των οικονομικών και χρηματιστηριακών μεγεθών της.

Transcript of Τεχνική Και Θεμελιώδης Ανάλυση μετοχών και εταιριών

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    . . MSc () Team Site: A.E.A.C. Co. Project Manager-Site Administrator e-mail: s_4goum@yahoo.com, My Blog, Twitter, Linkedin

    08/10/2015

    - . (Technical Analysis) . (Fundamental Analysis), (). 1 Motor Oil, , , - , , , . 1) () ), () 3) ,() 4) ,elroseKuwaitEnergyo,VegasilGAS - () 5) Elpedison BV ( )

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    6) , ( ) )( ) )()

    Keywords: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, stock market, corporation, MACD, William %R, SMA, EMA, Stochastic Oscillator, RSI, CCI, Bollinger Bands, ROE, ROA, Current Ratio, EPS, EBITDA, EBT

    (Technical Analysis) . , . . 1) (, / , , , , ) 2) . 3) . 4) -, .

    (Fundamental Analysis)

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    1) , 2) , , 3) . 4) , , . 5) .

    1) . ) , . ) , , . ) , . , , , ,

    ,

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    ------

    . (leading) (lagging) , .

    H , -- (bull market- uptrend), (bear market- downtrend) / (sideways trend). ( ), ( ) ( ).

    (patterns1), , (indicators), . 1) (trend) (--) 2) (volume). 3) (volatility). 4) (momentum). .

    1 .

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    (oscillator), , (overbought), , (sell signal). , (oversell), (buy signal) . , .

    . . ( )

    1) (Simple Moving Average- SMA) 2) (Exponential Moving Average- EMA) 3) MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). 4) Bollinger Bands 5) Commodity Channel Index 6) Relative Strength Index 7) William %R 8) Stochastic Oscillator

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    1) SMA (Simple Moving Average)

    , . , . , SMA (lagging) . , SMA .

    ---- SMA

    (Close Price), (), (SMA)

    SMA=++++ (P= Close Price, N= )

    , , , . , (), 1 . , SMA ,1. , , . , SMA 5 (5-days SMA),SMA 50 (50-days SMA), 5-days SMA 50-days SMA, (signal) (uptrend)5-days SMA 50-days SMA, (signal) (downtrend).

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    SMA. , SMA 10 (10-days SMA) 1-days SMA (signal) (uptrend) 1-days SMA (signal) (downtrend). , SMA (lagging), , .

    2) EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

    EMA, . SMA , (lagging) . EMA, , . , ,

    ---- EMA

    (Close Price), (), (EMA)

    SMA .

    t=1 EMA1=SMA

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    EMAt= + , t>1 , (P= Close Price) 0

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    ---- MACD

    (Close Price)

    MACD= EMA(Close Price, 12 days) - EMA(Close Price, 26 days) Signal= EMA(MACD, 9 days) Divergence = MACD Signal

    MACD Signal, (bear market), . MACD Signal, (bull market), . MACD ,

    4) Bollinger Bands

    John Bollinger, 1 (volatility bands) . , . . Bollinger Bands . , Bollinger Bands -Tops(*) W-Bottoms(*) .

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    ollinger ands (middle zone) (upper zone, lower zone). (SMA3), 20 . H +2 (upper zone) (middle zone), -2 (lower zone) .

    *-Tops: , , , () . *W-Bottoms: , W, , () .

    W- Bottom M-Tops

    3 SMA= Simple Moving Average

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    ---- Bollinger Bands

    (Close Price) (Standard Deviation)

    Middle Zone= 20 days SMA of Close Price Upper Zone= Middle Zone + 2*Standard Deviation(20 days) of Close price Lower Zone= Middle Zone - 2*Standard Deviation(20 days) of Close price

    (SMA) () SMA,

    5) Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

    onald Lambert 1 . , (ETFs, , ). CCI . CCI , . , CCI , . , CCI (overbought), (oversell).

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    ---- CCI

    (Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). (Typical Price)

    Typical Price= + +

    CCI= ,

    CCI +100 , , . CCI -100 , , . +1 -100 CCI , +-200, .

    6) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

    Welles Wilder, 1 (oscillator). .

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    ---- RSI

    RSI= +

    RS=

    4 14 (14 days CMA). , (Close Price) (upward) (downward)

    1.

    Close Price(t) Close Price(t-1). Close(t) Close(t-1). >0 Upward (U) (Gain) Close(t) Close(t-1). 1: CMA(t) = +1

    4 ,

    (Smoothing Moving Average)

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    3.

    RSI= + 5

    RSI 1 (overbought) (oversell) RSI . ,

    RSI (oscillator) ( ) RSI .

    7) William %R

    Larry William, . (oscillator) Fast Stochastic Oscillator. O William %R, , N .

    5 CMA(D,1)(),RS RSI=100.

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    ---- William %R

    (Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). 14 (1).

    %R= -100*

    -1 (-,) (overbought) (-100,-) (oversell), . -50 (-50,0), . (-100,-50) 125-days %R, . 125-days %R -50. . 125-days %R -50. .

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    8) Stochastic Oscillator

    George Lane, , 1 (oscillator) George Lane (momentum) , .

    ---- Stochastic Oscillator.

    (Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). 14 (1).

    %K= %D=(3 days SMA) of %K

    Stochastic Oscillator, ,%K %D. %D, (signal) MACD. %K %D (signal), (bear market), . %K %D (signal), (bull market), .

    Stochastic Oscillator, %R.

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    Stochastic Oscillator 0 +1 %R Stochastic Oscillator, (overbought) (oversell). %K (,1) (overbought) (0,20) (oversell), . , (80,100), , (,) .

    50 (50,100), . (0,50) .

    Stochastic Oscillator. Stochastic Oscillator .

    1) Fast Stochastic Oscillator ( Stochastic Oscillator). , George Lane ,

    2) Slow Stochastic Oscillator. Fast Stochastic Oscillator. .

    ) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Fast %) Fast %= Clece cle ceLw PceH PceLw Pce

    ) 3 Fast Stochastic Oscillator, Slow

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    ) 3 Slow %K, Slow %D (signal)

    Slow %K= (3 days SMA) of Fast Stochastic Oscillator Slow %D=(3 days SMA) of Slow %K

    Slow Stochastic Oscillator , (smoothing) (SMA) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (momentum) .

    3) Full Stochastic Oscillator. %K %D. Fast Stochastic Oscillator , 14 , , Full Stochastic Oscillator, .

    ) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Fast %) Fast %= Clece cle ceLw PceH PceLw Pce

    ) M1 Fast Stochastic Oscillator, Full

    ) M2 Full , Full %D (signal)

    Full %K= (M1 days SMA) of Fast Stochastic Oscillator Full %D=(M2 days SMA) of Full %K

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    ------

    , . , , , ( , , , - , , ). , (business plan), (business strategy), - (trademark), (customer relationships), (reputation) (goodwill), (R&D) , , . ,

    1) () 2) () 3) (AAE ROA) 4) (AA-ROE) 5) (A) 6) (EPS) 7) () 8) 9) () 10) ()

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    1)

    , , , , , , ,

    ---- .

    ++

    2

    () , -

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    ---- .

    3(AAE ROA)

    , ) , ) ), , ,

    ---- .

    ROA=

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    4) AA-ROE)

    , ,

    ----

    ROE=

    ,

    ---- .

    =

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    (EPS)

    EPS , , , ( ), , , , t t+1 (split), , , EPS ,EPS , , ( ) , EPS , EPS ( ,)

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    ---- .

    EPS=

    7)

    ,,,, , ,

    ---- .

    =

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    8)

    ( ) ) - ( ) , ) , . , . ) (Break Event Point). - . . - , . , , . . 1) ) -, ) ) -

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    ) .

    9(EBT).

    , (Earnings Before Taxes- EBT). . , , , , ( ), -

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    , , . , ,