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. . MSc () Team Site: A.E.A.C. Co. Project Manager-Site Administrator e-mail: s_4goum@yahoo.com, My Blog, Twitter, Linkedin

08/10/2015

- . (Technical Analysis) . (Fundamental Analysis), (). 1 Motor Oil, , , - , , , . 1) () ), () 3) ,() 4) ,elroseKuwaitEnergyo,VegasilGAS - () 5) Elpedison BV ( )

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6) , ( ) )( ) )()

Keywords: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, stock market, corporation, MACD, William %R, SMA, EMA, Stochastic Oscillator, RSI, CCI, Bollinger Bands, ROE, ROA, Current Ratio, EPS, EBITDA, EBT

(Technical Analysis) . , . . 1) (, / , , , , ) 2) . 3) . 4) -, .

(Fundamental Analysis)

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1) , 2) , , 3) . 4) , , . 5) .

1) . ) , . ) , , . ) , . , , , ,

,

4

------

. (leading) (lagging) , .

H , -- (bull market- uptrend), (bear market- downtrend) / (sideways trend). ( ), ( ) ( ).

(patterns1), , (indicators), . 1) (trend) (--) 2) (volume). 3) (volatility). 4) (momentum). .

1 .

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(oscillator), , (overbought), , (sell signal). , (oversell), (buy signal) . , .

. . ( )

1) (Simple Moving Average- SMA) 2) (Exponential Moving Average- EMA) 3) MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). 4) Bollinger Bands 5) Commodity Channel Index 6) Relative Strength Index 7) William %R 8) Stochastic Oscillator

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1) SMA (Simple Moving Average)

, . , . , SMA (lagging) . , SMA .

---- SMA

(Close Price), (), (SMA)

SMA=++++ (P= Close Price, N= )

, , , . , (), 1 . , SMA ,1. , , . , SMA 5 (5-days SMA),SMA 50 (50-days SMA), 5-days SMA 50-days SMA, (signal) (uptrend)5-days SMA 50-days SMA, (signal) (downtrend).

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SMA. , SMA 10 (10-days SMA) 1-days SMA (signal) (uptrend) 1-days SMA (signal) (downtrend). , SMA (lagging), , .

2) EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

EMA, . SMA , (lagging) . EMA, , . , ,

---- EMA

(Close Price), (), (EMA)

SMA .

t=1 EMA1=SMA

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EMAt= + , t>1 , (P= Close Price) 0

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---- MACD

(Close Price)

MACD= EMA(Close Price, 12 days) - EMA(Close Price, 26 days) Signal= EMA(MACD, 9 days) Divergence = MACD Signal

MACD Signal, (bear market), . MACD Signal, (bull market), . MACD ,

4) Bollinger Bands

John Bollinger, 1 (volatility bands) . , . . Bollinger Bands . , Bollinger Bands -Tops(*) W-Bottoms(*) .

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ollinger ands (middle zone) (upper zone, lower zone). (SMA3), 20 . H +2 (upper zone) (middle zone), -2 (lower zone) .

*-Tops: , , , () . *W-Bottoms: , W, , () .

W- Bottom M-Tops

3 SMA= Simple Moving Average

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---- Bollinger Bands

(Close Price) (Standard Deviation)

Middle Zone= 20 days SMA of Close Price Upper Zone= Middle Zone + 2*Standard Deviation(20 days) of Close price Lower Zone= Middle Zone - 2*Standard Deviation(20 days) of Close price

(SMA) () SMA,

5) Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

onald Lambert 1 . , (ETFs, , ). CCI . CCI , . , CCI , . , CCI (overbought), (oversell).

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---- CCI

(Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). (Typical Price)

Typical Price= + +

CCI= ,

CCI +100 , , . CCI -100 , , . +1 -100 CCI , +-200, .

6) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Welles Wilder, 1 (oscillator). .

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---- RSI

RSI= +

RS=

4 14 (14 days CMA). , (Close Price) (upward) (downward)

1.

Close Price(t) Close Price(t-1). Close(t) Close(t-1). >0 Upward (U) (Gain) Close(t) Close(t-1). 1: CMA(t) = +1

4 ,

(Smoothing Moving Average)

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3.

RSI= + 5

RSI 1 (overbought) (oversell) RSI . ,

RSI (oscillator) ( ) RSI .

7) William %R

Larry William, . (oscillator) Fast Stochastic Oscillator. O William %R, , N .

5 CMA(D,1)(),RS RSI=100.

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---- William %R

(Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). 14 (1).

%R= -100*

-1 (-,) (overbought) (-100,-) (oversell), . -50 (-50,0), . (-100,-50) 125-days %R, . 125-days %R -50. . 125-days %R -50. .

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8) Stochastic Oscillator

George Lane, , 1 (oscillator) George Lane (momentum) , .

---- Stochastic Oscillator.

(Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). 14 (1).

%K= %D=(3 days SMA) of %K

Stochastic Oscillator, ,%K %D. %D, (signal) MACD. %K %D (signal), (bear market), . %K %D (signal), (bull market), .

Stochastic Oscillator, %R.

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Stochastic Oscillator 0 +1 %R Stochastic Oscillator, (overbought) (oversell). %K (,1) (overbought) (0,20) (oversell), . , (80,100), , (,) .

50 (50,100), . (0,50) .

Stochastic Oscillator. Stochastic Oscillator .

1) Fast Stochastic Oscillator ( Stochastic Oscillator). , George Lane ,

2) Slow Stochastic Oscillator. Fast Stochastic Oscillator. .

) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Fast %) Fast %= Clece cle ceLw PceH PceLw Pce

) 3 Fast Stochastic Oscillator, Slow

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) 3 Slow %K, Slow %D (signal)

Slow %K= (3 days SMA) of Fast Stochastic Oscillator Slow %D=(3 days SMA) of Slow %K

Slow Stochastic Oscillator , (smoothing) (SMA) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (momentum) .

3) Full Stochastic Oscillator. %K %D. Fast Stochastic Oscillator , 14 , , Full Stochastic Oscillator, .

) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Fast %) Fast %= Clece cle ceLw PceH PceLw Pce

) M1 Fast Stochastic Oscillator, Full

) M2 Full , Full %D (signal)

Full %K= (M1 days SMA) of Fast Stochastic Oscillator Full %D=(M2 days SMA) of Full %K

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------

, . , , , ( , , , - , , ). , (business plan), (business strategy), - (trademark), (customer relationships), (reputation) (goodwill), (R&D) , , . ,

1) () 2) () 3) (AAE ROA) 4) (AA-ROE) 5) (A) 6) (EPS) 7) () 8) 9) () 10) ()

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1)

, , , , , , ,

---- .

++

2

() , -

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---- .

3(AAE ROA)

, ) , ) ), , ,

---- .

ROA=

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4) AA-ROE)

, ,

----

ROE=

,

---- .

=

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(EPS)

EPS , , , ( ), , , , t t+1 (split), , , EPS ,EPS , , ( ) , EPS , EPS ( ,)

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---- .

EPS=

7)

,,,, , ,

---- .

=

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8)

( ) ) - ( ) , ) , . , . ) (Break Event Point). - . . - , . , , . . 1) ) -, ) ) -

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) .

9(EBT).

, (Earnings Before Taxes- EBT). . , , , , ( ), -

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, , . , ,

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().

()

()

, ,

( , EBITDA)

,

()

(EBT)

( ) (/ )

1. EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA: , )

2. EBIT ( ): Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT: () ) EBIT= -

3. () - ()-

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( ) 01/01/2014 31/12/2014 1 , , - , , , . .

excel

excel , (sheet) , (technical_analysis_ELPE.xls) , .

-

, , , . ,

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1) SMA

10-DAY SMA . , , , SMA . , SMA, (lagging) , 10 . , 1-days SMA 1-days SMA 06/2014-07/2014 1-days SMA, 04/2014 1 1-days SMA.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

SMA

Close Price

10-DAY SMA

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2) EMA

10-DAY EMA , EMA, (lagging) , 1 . , 1-days EMA 1-days EMA 06/2014-07/2014 1-days EMA, 04/2014 1 1-days EMA. EMA SMA, , .

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

EMA

Close Price

10-DAY EMA

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3) MACD.

MACD, . MACD MACD Signal, (bear market), MACD Signal, (bull market), , , , MACD. 1 1 MACD Signal , MACD Signal, . ( 04/2014 04/2014), MACD Signal. 1 1, MACD Signal , MACD Signal, . 1 1, MACD Signal. 09/2014 10/2014, MACD Signal , , .

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4) Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands. , , . W- Bottom, , , , . , Bollinger M- Tops W-Bottoms

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

MACD & SIGNAL

MACD

SIGNAL

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5) Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

,CCI . CCI , ,CCI , . +1 -100 . +1 -1 , , +-200. CCI . , CCI +1-100 , ( 1),

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

BOLLINGER BANDS

MIDDLE BAND

UPPER BAND

LOWER BAND

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6) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

, RSI 1 (overbought) (oversell) RSI (oscillator) () RSI ++ (+70) , (+30) , ,

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

CCI

CCI

- 100 LINE

+100 LINE

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,RSI ,

7) William %R

, %R ,14 -100 0. (-,) (overbought) (-100,-) (oversell), - (-,), (-100,-50) . (-100,-) (-,), , (-80,-) . .

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00RSI

RSI

+30 LINE

+70 LINE

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R CCI, CCI CCI

8) Stochastic Oscillator

Stochastic Oscillator,,(oscillator) (momentum) ,. Stochastic Oscillator, , %K %D %D, (signal) MACD. %K %D (signal), (bear market),

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0WILLIAM %R

William R

-80LINE

-20 LINE

-50 LINE

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%K %D (signal), (bull market), Stochastic Oscillator,Stochastic Oscillator +1 %K (,1) (overbought) (,) (oversell), (,1), (,) .

D (signal), D, , D, . , , . , D (3 Days SMA) Slow Stochastic Oscillator .

, . , + + , . , (+10, +90) . , + ,

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+, .

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 %K &%D

%K

%D

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 %K

%K

_+80 LINE

_+20 LINE

_ +50 LINE

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1

, 0. .91, . , , , , , . , - , , , . . , , ,

2014 0,703 0,837 0,912 0,806

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2)

, . , , . , , , , . -0.022 -0.036, . , . , . 1, , 1 / , . , , / , . / , . , , .

2014 -0,022 -0,013 -0,017 -0,036

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3) (AAE ROA)

(), . -0.008 -0.046, , . , , , , , , .

, . , , , , () , ,

2014 (ROA) -0,008 -0,008 -0,017 -0,046

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4) AA-ROE)

ROE -0.027 -0.266 . ROE , ROE, , , . , , 1 , . , , ROE. , . AKK, ROA, ROE, , , .

2014 (ROE) -0,027 -0,034 -0,074 -0,266

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5) (AI)

. 17 0.28, , , , . , . , , , . , , 1) , 2) , 3) , 4) )

2014 0,28 0,24 0,228 0,173

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6) (EPS)

EPS , , EPS , EPS -0.14 -1.03, 1 cents 1 . , (ROE, ROA), . , , , , ( , - , ), ,

2014 EPS -0,14 -0,17 -0,36 -1,03

1 , , ,

2014 1,24 2,65 4,39 7,4

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- - .

, , (, , , ) , . . 313 , , , . , . , , . , / , . .

2014 1.928.825.000 4.127.881.000 6.542.111.000 8.750.184.000 -57.993.000 -60.736.000 -150.548.000 -426.705.000 -42.250.000 -52.707.000 -110.504.000 -313.550.000

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, , , . , , , , . , , , , .

, . , . , , . , , . , . , , , ,

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, , , , .

-

[1] (- 2006) [2] ( - 2006) [](University Studio Press- 2009) [](- 2002 [](EisenJPeter- 1997) [6] (- 2002) [7]Risk Management (- 2006) [](. Eurocapital- 1997) [](etapublications- 1999) [10] ( Nomismatus RPI- 2000) [11] Technical analysis, plain and simple (Kahn Michael. FT Press- 2006) [12] Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (Murphy John. New York Institute of Finance- 1999)

www.wikipedia.org www.stockcharts.com

www.elpe.gr

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(patterns)

DOUBLE TOP

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HEAD and SHOULDER TOP

ASCEDING TRIANGLE

[10] ( . Nomismatus RPI- 2000)