NWP Models at DGMAN Study Domain and Configurations GME (Global Model) analysis as an Input to

HRM/COSMO Evaluating Forecasted:

Tracks Intensity rainfall

Conclusion & future work

Prognostic variablesSurface pressure ps

Temperature TWater vapour qv

Cloud water qc

Cloud ice qi

Horizontal wind u, vSeveral surface/soil parameters

Diagnostic variables

Vertical velocity ωGeopotential φCloud cover clcDiffusion coefficients tkvm/h

Operational Forecasting Model

Prognostic variablespressure perturbation p‘Temperature Tspecific humidity qvCloud water qcCloud ice qiHorizontal/virtical wind u, v,w

Diagnostic variables

Total air densityprecipitation fluxes of rain and snow.

Research Evaluation Model

x: 193

y:114

levels: 40

FCT Hours:78

FCT times: 00,12 UTC

7 – 35.25 N

30 – 78 E

Initial/LBC: GME

x: 241

y: 241

levels : 40

FCT Hours:78

FCT times: 00,12 UTC

14.0 – 29.0 N

48.5 – 63.5 E

Initial/LBC: GME

x: 241 y: 241 levels :40

Lat: 11.0 – 26 N

Lon: 57.0 – 72.0 E

Initial/LBC: GME

Period: 3-6 June 2007

Model Version: HRM 2.4 COSMO 3.4

Wind Speed Category

kt 28-33 Deep Depression

kt 34-47 Cyclonic Storm

kt 48-63 Severe Cyclonic Storm

64-119kt Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

kt 120=< Super Cyclonic Storm

mm

mm

mm

GME (driving model) miss located Gonu center and underestimated the associated wind and pressure drop.

Clear dependency between GME forecast quality and HRM/COSMO forecast quality.

Even though HRM/COSMO are not TC specialized models, both have given the signal for Gonu.

COSMO_07 were able to forecast Gonu as Severe Cyclonic Storm starting from 12UTC run of 4th June 2007.

On average COSMO shows 5% improvement of track forecast and 3% on the wind intensity over HRM.

Both HRM_07 and COSMO_07 have signaled 48h rainfall of more than 900mm starting at June 5th with reasonable spacial and good amount agreement with the recorded rainfall.

Both HRM & COSMO are not specialized TC models, Testing the new “TC bogussing” scheme developed on the HRM community.

Testing the effect of introducing Data Assimilation system for the HRM model.

Plan to introduce SREF system, and test the performance.