Nwp performance gonu Tropical Cyclone conference
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Transcript of Nwp performance gonu Tropical Cyclone conference
NWP Models at DGMAN Study Domain and Configurations GME (Global Model) analysis as an Input to
HRM/COSMO Evaluating Forecasted:
Tracks Intensity rainfall
Conclusion & future work
Prognostic variablesSurface pressure ps
Temperature TWater vapour qv
Cloud water qc
Cloud ice qi
Horizontal wind u, vSeveral surface/soil parameters
Diagnostic variables
Vertical velocity ωGeopotential φCloud cover clcDiffusion coefficients tkvm/h
Operational Forecasting Model
Prognostic variablespressure perturbation p‘Temperature Tspecific humidity qvCloud water qcCloud ice qiHorizontal/virtical wind u, v,w
Diagnostic variables
Total air densityprecipitation fluxes of rain and snow.
Research Evaluation Model
x: 193
y:114
levels: 40
FCT Hours:78
FCT times: 00,12 UTC
7 – 35.25 N
30 – 78 E
Initial/LBC: GME
x: 241
y: 241
levels : 40
FCT Hours:78
FCT times: 00,12 UTC
14.0 – 29.0 N
48.5 – 63.5 E
Initial/LBC: GME
x: 241 y: 241 levels :40
Lat: 11.0 – 26 N
Lon: 57.0 – 72.0 E
Initial/LBC: GME
Period: 3-6 June 2007
Model Version: HRM 2.4 COSMO 3.4
Wind Speed Category
kt 28-33 Deep Depression
kt 34-47 Cyclonic Storm
kt 48-63 Severe Cyclonic Storm
64-119kt Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
kt 120=< Super Cyclonic Storm
mm
mm
mm
GME (driving model) miss located Gonu center and underestimated the associated wind and pressure drop.
Clear dependency between GME forecast quality and HRM/COSMO forecast quality.
Even though HRM/COSMO are not TC specialized models, both have given the signal for Gonu.
COSMO_07 were able to forecast Gonu as Severe Cyclonic Storm starting from 12UTC run of 4th June 2007.
On average COSMO shows 5% improvement of track forecast and 3% on the wind intensity over HRM.
Both HRM_07 and COSMO_07 have signaled 48h rainfall of more than 900mm starting at June 5th with reasonable spacial and good amount agreement with the recorded rainfall.
Both HRM & COSMO are not specialized TC models, Testing the new “TC bogussing” scheme developed on the HRM community.
Testing the effect of introducing Data Assimilation system for the HRM model.
Plan to introduce SREF system, and test the performance.