Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker MacCready

University of Washington, School of Oceanography

Surface salinity

MacCready: MOSSEA Model

JEMS time series site• 2003-present, monthly (with many gaps)

• 140 m water depth

•CTD casts (T, S, D, DO)

• Bottle chlorophyll, nutrients, oxygen

•Zooplankton net tows• 75-cm diameter closing net• 150-μm mesh• Surface (0-40 m and 80-120 m) vertical net tows• *No flow meter until 2014

The Salish Sea

Strait of Juan de Fuca

Strait of Georgia

Puget Sound

MacCready: MOSSEA Model

Cold-water, upwelling-associated species assemblage

Offshore, warm-water oceanic species assemblage

Calanus marshallaeAcartia longiremisPseudocalanus mimus

Clausocalanus spp.Ctenocalanus vanusMesocalanus tenuicornis

Puget Sound species assemblage

Strait of Georgia species assemblage

Ditrichocorycaeus anglicus

Pseudocalanus minutus

Indicator species

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

PD

OIn

de

x

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0E

NS

OIn

de

x

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

NP

GO

Index

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

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16

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18

Temperature

Dep

th

Temperature

Salinity

Dep

th

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

3-m T anomaly

120-m T anomaly

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0 PDO

x x

x x

Axis 2 (26%)

Axi

s 1

(3

0%

)

SST

Zooplankton data Analysis: Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMS) Ordination of copepod species composition

• Copepod species abundances

• Relativized to species proportion in each sample

• Axis 1 rotated to SST

A

B

C

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

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12

13

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18

Axi

s 1

Axi

s 2

Axes time series:

x x

x x

A

B

C

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

03

04

05

06

07

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18

Axi

s 1

Axi

s 2

Anomalies,Seasonal cycles removed x x

x x

Axis 1 with 3-m Tr = -0.82

• Strong seasonal cycle

• Interannual anomalies

What species are primary drivers of community changes?

What controls their temporal variability?

r = -0.93

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

DITRICHOCORYCAEUS ANGLICUS

r = 0.51

Average seasonal cycles (#/m3):

Upwelling indicatorPuget Sound indicator

Strongest species correlations with Axis 1:

r = -0.93

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

DITRICHOCORYCAEUS ANGLICUS

r = 0.51

Average seasonal cycles (#/m3):

Upwelling indicatorPuget Sound indicator

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rag

e a

bu

nd

acn

e (

#/m

3)

Pseudocalanus mimus - S. Vancouver Island

x x x x

Strongest species correlations with Axis 1:

“Cascadia 1” - 2013-2018 hindcasts

1500 m (in Salish Sea) to 4500 m (ocean) horizontal resolution

40 vertical terrain-following layers

Nested in HYCOM

Tides, rivers, winds, heating

ROMS

Particle releases from 3 boundaries

Tested 3 approx. depth ranges (surface-trapped, mid, deep)

Released monthly, advected 30 days

Neutrally buoyant –tracked in 3D

Data = proportion of particles that entered domain from each release

Example particle trajectories: Feb 2013 – Strait of Juan de Fuca releases

Surface trapped ~30-50 m ~100-150 mD

epth

(m

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca - Deep

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca - Surface

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Puget Sound - Deep

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Puget Sound - Surface

% o

f p

arti

cle

s re

leas

ed

th

at r

eac

he

d t

he

do

mai

n

Seasonal cycles of particle trajectories

(coming soon)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Puget Sound - Mid

0

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30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca - Mid

0

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca - Deep

0

10

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30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca - Surface

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Puget Sound - Deep

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Puget Sound - Surface

% o

f p

arti

cle

s re

leas

ed

th

at r

eac

he

d t

he

do

mai

n

Seasonal cycles of particle trajectories

(coming soon)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Puget Sound - Mid

0

5

10

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25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca - Mid

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rag

e a

bu

nd

acn

e (

#/m

3)

Pseudocalanus mimus - S. Vancouver Island

x x x x

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-30

-20

-10

0

10

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30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Strait of Juan de Fuca

surface particle

anomalies

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

x

Puget Sound

surface particle

anomalies

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Conclusions

Zooplankton community shows interannual variability correlated with climate indices.

Coastal versus inland indicator species show contrasting seasonality

Ocean-estuary advection is important, likely in combination with life history patterns.

Thank you!

University of WashingtonWA Dept of EcologyThe Salish Sea Marine Survival Project (SSMSP)NOAA and the Tulalip TribeCaptain and crew of the R/V ZoeaMoira Galbraith