Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator...

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Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker MacCready University of Washington, School of Oceanography

Transcript of Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator...

Page 1: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker MacCready

University of Washington, School of Oceanography

Page 2: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Surface salinity

MacCready: MOSSEA Model

JEMS time series site• 2003-present, monthly (with many gaps)

• 140 m water depth

•CTD casts (T, S, D, DO)

• Bottle chlorophyll, nutrients, oxygen

•Zooplankton net tows• 75-cm diameter closing net• 150-μm mesh• Surface (0-40 m and 80-120 m) vertical net tows• *No flow meter until 2014

The Salish Sea

Strait of Juan de Fuca

Strait of Georgia

Puget Sound

Page 3: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

MacCready: MOSSEA Model

Cold-water, upwelling-associated species assemblage

Offshore, warm-water oceanic species assemblage

Calanus marshallaeAcartia longiremisPseudocalanus mimus

Clausocalanus spp.Ctenocalanus vanusMesocalanus tenuicornis

Puget Sound species assemblage

Strait of Georgia species assemblage

Ditrichocorycaeus anglicus

Pseudocalanus minutus

Indicator species

Page 4: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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Page 5: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Temperature

Dep

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Page 6: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Temperature

Salinity

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Page 7: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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3-m T anomaly

120-m T anomaly

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Page 8: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Axis 2 (26%)

Axi

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SST

Zooplankton data Analysis: Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMS) Ordination of copepod species composition

• Copepod species abundances

• Relativized to species proportion in each sample

• Axis 1 rotated to SST

Page 9: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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Axes time series:

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Page 10: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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Anomalies,Seasonal cycles removed x x

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Axis 1 with 3-m Tr = -0.82

Page 11: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

• Strong seasonal cycle

• Interannual anomalies

Page 12: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

What species are primary drivers of community changes?

What controls their temporal variability?

Page 13: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

r = -0.93

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PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS

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DITRICHOCORYCAEUS ANGLICUS

r = 0.51

Average seasonal cycles (#/m3):

Upwelling indicatorPuget Sound indicator

Strongest species correlations with Axis 1:

Page 14: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

r = -0.93

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Average seasonal cycles (#/m3):

Upwelling indicatorPuget Sound indicator

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Pseudocalanus mimus - S. Vancouver Island

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Strongest species correlations with Axis 1:

Page 15: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

“Cascadia 1” - 2013-2018 hindcasts

1500 m (in Salish Sea) to 4500 m (ocean) horizontal resolution

40 vertical terrain-following layers

Nested in HYCOM

Tides, rivers, winds, heating

ROMS

Page 16: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Particle releases from 3 boundaries

Tested 3 approx. depth ranges (surface-trapped, mid, deep)

Released monthly, advected 30 days

Neutrally buoyant –tracked in 3D

Data = proportion of particles that entered domain from each release

Page 17: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Example particle trajectories: Feb 2013 – Strait of Juan de Fuca releases

Surface trapped ~30-50 m ~100-150 mD

epth

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Page 18: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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Page 19: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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Page 20: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

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Page 21: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Conclusions

Zooplankton community shows interannual variability correlated with climate indices.

Coastal versus inland indicator species show contrasting seasonality

Ocean-estuary advection is important, likely in combination with life history patterns.

Page 22: Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker … · Puget Sound indicator Upwelling indicator Strongest species correlations with Axis 1: r = -0.93 0 200 400 600

Thank you!

University of WashingtonWA Dept of EcologyThe Salish Sea Marine Survival Project (SSMSP)NOAA and the Tulalip TribeCaptain and crew of the R/V ZoeaMoira Galbraith