An Analysis of Interannual Variation of Ensemble Simulation by CWB GFS

Jyh-Wen Hwu Chun-Rhu Jen Yea-Ching Tung

 Research and Development Center

Central Weather Bureau

Experiment DesignSST:1. 1950/01-1978/11Reconstructed

Reynolds 2. 1978/12-1996/ 3 PCMDI AMIP2 3. 1996/4-1999/12NCEP OISST

Others following the guideline of AMIP2.Ten members.Integrate from 1949 to 2001.6 hours output, averaged into daily and monthly.

Winter Precipitation

Summer Precipitation

JJA(0) Wind and PCP

51/52, 57/58, 63/64, 65/66, 72/73, 76/77,

82/83, 91/92,94/95, 97/98

SON(0) Wind and PCP

DJF(0) Wind and PCP

MAM(1) Wind and PCP

JJA(1) Wind and PCP

SST Experiment

12 ENSOs

1997/98

Wind(57/58, 72/73, 82/83, 91/92, 97/98)-(55/56, 70/71, 73/74, 75/76,

88/89)

Wind (continue)

PSL & PCP

PSL & PCP (continue)

South Asia Monsoon Index

Indian Monsoon Index

Western North Pacific Monsoon Index

Australian Summer Monsoon Index

Summary

Model is capable to simulate the larger scale system in both winter and summer.Model is also capable to simulate the interannual variation caused by the variation of lower boundary SST