probema 1

AOTRIMESTREVENTAS (UNIDADES)ATTtFtERRORt-tmediaYt-ytmedia)PRODUCTO(T-TMEDIA)^2valor abs(error)20111340340903400-5.56.67-36.68530.250225039481421-171-4.5-83.33374.98520.25171326043270.25464.25-204.25-3.5-73.33256.65512.25204.254300461.860.1375492.1375-192.1375-2.5-33.3383.3256.25192.1375=0.220125380493.5553.040625514.840625-134.840625-1.546.67-70.0052.25134.8406251-=0.86295496.272540.46109375534.01109375-239.01109375-0.5-38.3319.1650.25239.01109375=0.257300489.38687528.6244140625524.8969140625-224.89691406250.5-33.33-16.6650.25224.89691406251-=0.758340482.4090312519.7238496094509.1107246094-169.11072460941.56.6710.0052.25169.110724609420139445490.706304687516.8672055664499.2762368164-54.27623681642.5111.67279.1756.2554.276236816410340474.05880820318.4885300537499.1948347412-159.19483474123.56.6723.34512.25159.194834741211350456.03787060551.8611631409475.919971344-125.9199713444.516.6775.01520.25125.91997134412400446.3192269971-1.0337885464455.004082059-55.0040820595.566.67366.68530.2555.004082059201413395.34436.1233815977-3.3243027597442.9949242374-47.65492423746.562.01403.06542.2547.654924237414404.88427.2152630704-4.7202567016431.4031248961-26.52312489617.571.55536.62556.2526.523124896115414.42420.880005095-5.12400702422.0912560503-7.67125605038.581.09689.26572.257.671256050316423.96417.39679846-4.7138069238416.16619817137.79380182879.590.63860.98590.257.7938018287sumatoria1819.2850893958.5333.33333333331365143b1=1365/143=271.33+9.55xB) MAD=113.70531808729.54b0=271.32

C) Si es confiable el prnostico por que sigue un comportamiento estacional con tendencia

problema 2

DaHelados vendidosTemperatura Mxima del da en CXi(Yi)(Xi)^2(Yi)^21300288400784900002324309720900104976A) =4371/14-(10.817)(418/14)=-10.75334032108801024115600 y nos sirve para predecir futuros resultados .4320319920961102400 El coeficiente determina la calidad del modelo para arrojar los resultados,531030930090096100 y la proporcin de variacin de los resultados que puede explicarse por el modelo.630530915090093025730829893284194864=([(14)(130827)-(4371)(418)]^2)/([14(12510)-174724][14(1368631)-(19105641)])=0.88182902881207848410093303110230961108900=((14)(130827)-[(418)(4371))/(14(12510)-174724)=10.81710335321072010241122251130430912090092416B) para una temperatura de 33 se espera venta de 350 helados12280277560729784001330029870084190000C) creo que para este tipo de pronosticos este metodo es confiable pero para otro tipo de problemas otros serian mas exactos1432531100759611056251535033115501089122500suma4721451142377135991368631=-10.75+10.81x=-10.75+10.81(33)=345.9

problema 3

MesDemanda ao 1Demanda ao 2Demanda ao 3ndice de estacionalidadATTtFtERRORerror absolutoindice de est.MesDemanda ao 1Demanda ao 2Demanda ao 3pronosticoEnero1240011800136000.8136001500027988-14388143880.8Enero12400118001360027988=0.3Febrero2300024111218001.8265601438838603.68-16803.6816803.680.81Febrero23000241112180038603.681-=0.7Marzo1580016500149000.933133.612043.6842857.3248-27957.324827957.32480.6992728288Marzo15800165001490042857.3248=0.3Abril2050021000194001.637444.0969723.724845262.716928-25862.71692825862.7169280.6449226936Abril20500210001940045262.7169281-0.7Mayo251002430026000240817.474567818.62092845743.84689408-19743.8468940819743.846894080.6425405107Mayo25100243002600045743.846894080.3Junio162001580016500138995.26684164926.3723340841084.6916498688-24584.691649868824584.69164986880.57671684Junio16200158001650041084.69164986881-0.7Julio1200011500124000.734465.1474229762089.424808268834236.6607304328-21836.660730432821836.66073043280.5116369132Julio12000115001240034236.6607304328Agosto1030010100108000.628828.2005618714-228.486692543227150.7396210886-16350.739621088616350.73962108860.4705357885Agosto10300101001080027150.7396210886Sept.1180011000125000.723769.7997085297-1677.460940782821346.0282786497-8846.02827864978846.02827864970.487138266Sept.11800110001250021346.0282786497Oct.1400014300138001.219604.6371374228-2423.7714298816588.587793864-2788.5877938642788.5877938640.5521713145Oct.14000143001380016588.587793864Nov.1070010900106000.915206.60599528-3016.049343558811822.4065530662-1222.40655306621222.40655306620.5956395621Nov.10700109001060011822.4065530662Dic.7600720081000.610963.3896562048-3384.199442213810963.3896562048-2863.38965620482863.38965620480.6385944721Dic.76007200810010963.3896562048suma-183248.072905255183248.072905255

C) MAD="183248.0729 " /12= 15270.67D) seal de rastreo=(-183248.0729)/15270.67=-12