ejercicios pronosticos

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AÑO AT Tt 2011 1 340 340 90 2 250 394 81 3 260 432 70.25 4 300 461.8 60.14 2012 5 380 493.55 53.04 6 295 496.2725 40.46 7 300 489.386875 28.62 8 340 482.409031 19.72 2013 9 445 490.706305 16.87 10 340 474.058808 8.489 11 350 456.037871 1.861 12 400 446.319227 -1.03 2014 13 395.34 436.123382 -3.32 14 404.88 427.215263 -4.72 15 414.42 420.880005 -5.12 16 423.96 417.396798 -4.71 sumatoria 8.5 333.33 Ŷ=271.33+9. B) MAD= 114 TRIME STRE VENTAS (UNIDADE S)

description

administración de las operaciones

Transcript of ejercicios pronosticos

probema 1

AOTRIMESTREVENTAS (UNIDADES)ATTtFtERRORt-tmediaYt-ytmedia)PRODUCTO(T-TMEDIA)^2valor abs(error)20111340340903400-5.56.67-36.68530.250225039481421-171-4.5-83.33374.98520.25171326043270.25464.25-204.25-3.5-73.33256.65512.25204.254300461.860.1375492.1375-192.1375-2.5-33.3383.3256.25192.1375=0.220125380493.5553.040625514.840625-134.840625-1.546.67-70.0052.25134.8406251-=0.86295496.272540.46109375534.01109375-239.01109375-0.5-38.3319.1650.25239.01109375=0.257300489.38687528.6244140625524.8969140625-224.89691406250.5-33.33-16.6650.25224.89691406251-=0.758340482.4090312519.7238496094509.1107246094-169.11072460941.56.6710.0052.25169.110724609420139445490.706304687516.8672055664499.2762368164-54.27623681642.5111.67279.1756.2554.276236816410340474.05880820318.4885300537499.1948347412-159.19483474123.56.6723.34512.25159.194834741211350456.03787060551.8611631409475.919971344-125.9199713444.516.6775.01520.25125.91997134412400446.3192269971-1.0337885464455.004082059-55.0040820595.566.67366.68530.2555.004082059201413395.34436.1233815977-3.3243027597442.9949242374-47.65492423746.562.01403.06542.2547.654924237414404.88427.2152630704-4.7202567016431.4031248961-26.52312489617.571.55536.62556.2526.523124896115414.42420.880005095-5.12400702422.0912560503-7.67125605038.581.09689.26572.257.671256050316423.96417.39679846-4.7138069238416.16619817137.79380182879.590.63860.98590.257.7938018287sumatoria1819.2850893958.5333.33333333331365143b1=1365/143=271.33+9.55xB) MAD=113.70531808729.54b0=271.32

C) Si es confiable el prnostico por que sigue un comportamiento estacional con tendencia

problema 2

DaHelados vendidosTemperatura Mxima del da en CXi(Yi)(Xi)^2(Yi)^21300288400784900002324309720900104976A) =4371/14-(10.817)(418/14)=-10.75334032108801024115600 y nos sirve para predecir futuros resultados .4320319920961102400 El coeficiente determina la calidad del modelo para arrojar los resultados,531030930090096100 y la proporcin de variacin de los resultados que puede explicarse por el modelo.630530915090093025730829893284194864=([(14)(130827)-(4371)(418)]^2)/([14(12510)-174724][14(1368631)-(19105641)])=0.88182902881207848410093303110230961108900=((14)(130827)-[(418)(4371))/(14(12510)-174724)=10.81710335321072010241122251130430912090092416B) para una temperatura de 33 se espera venta de 350 helados12280277560729784001330029870084190000C) creo que para este tipo de pronosticos este metodo es confiable pero para otro tipo de problemas otros serian mas exactos1432531100759611056251535033115501089122500suma4721451142377135991368631=-10.75+10.81x=-10.75+10.81(33)=345.9

problema 3

MesDemanda ao 1Demanda ao 2Demanda ao 3ndice de estacionalidadATTtFtERRORerror absolutoindice de est.MesDemanda ao 1Demanda ao 2Demanda ao 3pronosticoEnero1240011800136000.8136001500027988-14388143880.8Enero12400118001360027988=0.3Febrero2300024111218001.8265601438838603.68-16803.6816803.680.81Febrero23000241112180038603.681-=0.7Marzo1580016500149000.933133.612043.6842857.3248-27957.324827957.32480.6992728288Marzo15800165001490042857.3248=0.3Abril2050021000194001.637444.0969723.724845262.716928-25862.71692825862.7169280.6449226936Abril20500210001940045262.7169281-0.7Mayo251002430026000240817.474567818.62092845743.84689408-19743.8468940819743.846894080.6425405107Mayo25100243002600045743.846894080.3Junio162001580016500138995.26684164926.3723340841084.6916498688-24584.691649868824584.69164986880.57671684Junio16200158001650041084.69164986881-0.7Julio1200011500124000.734465.1474229762089.424808268834236.6607304328-21836.660730432821836.66073043280.5116369132Julio12000115001240034236.6607304328Agosto1030010100108000.628828.2005618714-228.486692543227150.7396210886-16350.739621088616350.73962108860.4705357885Agosto10300101001080027150.7396210886Sept.1180011000125000.723769.7997085297-1677.460940782821346.0282786497-8846.02827864978846.02827864970.487138266Sept.11800110001250021346.0282786497Oct.1400014300138001.219604.6371374228-2423.7714298816588.587793864-2788.5877938642788.5877938640.5521713145Oct.14000143001380016588.587793864Nov.1070010900106000.915206.60599528-3016.049343558811822.4065530662-1222.40655306621222.40655306620.5956395621Nov.10700109001060011822.4065530662Dic.7600720081000.610963.3896562048-3384.199442213810963.3896562048-2863.38965620482863.38965620480.6385944721Dic.76007200810010963.3896562048suma-183248.072905255183248.072905255

C) MAD="183248.0729 " /12= 15270.67D) seal de rastreo=(-183248.0729)/15270.67=-12