Case Study:
Ernesto
August–September 2006
Jared Klein – SUNY - Albany
300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 31 August 2006
300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1], θ (K), and wind barbs (kt)
Jet much farther downstream than with Ivan (2004)
1.0° GFS
Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s−1), and div (10−5 s−1)
300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 1 September 2006
300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1], θ (K), and wind barbs (kt)
1.0° GFS
Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s−1), and div (10−5 s−1)
925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 31 August 2006
925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1], θ (K), and wind barbs (kt)
WSI radar, 925 hPa θe (K) and wind barbs (kt)
1.0° GFS
925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 1 September 2006
925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1], θ (K), and wind barbs (kt)
WSI radar, 925 hPa θe (K) and wind barbs (kt)
Highest reflectivity near nose of LLJ/θe ridge axis
Strong frontogenesis along warm frontal zone
1.0° GFS
Radar at 0000 UTC 1 September 2006
Qn div–con bands within coastal boundary as Ernesto nears landfall
Strong forcing for descent–ascent associated with Qn and Qs div–con
925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 0000 UTC 1 September 2006
Q Qn
Qs
WSI radar
Q vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 2.5 × 10−11), θ (K) contoured in green, and Q div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
1.0° GFS
Radar at 0600 UTC 1 September 2006
925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 0600 UTC 1 September 2006
Q Qn
Qs
WSI radar
Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascent
Q vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 2.5 × 10−11), θ (K) contoured in green, and Q div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
1.0° GFS
Radar at 1200 UTC 1 September 2006
925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 1200 UTC 1 September 2006
Q Qn
Qs
WSI radar
Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascent
Q vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 2.5 × 10−11), θ (K) contoured in green, and Q div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
1.0° GFS
Cross Section of Fn Magnitude: 0000 UTC 1 September 2006
925–500 hPa layer-avg Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1),θ (K) contoured in green, and Fn div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
Strongest frontogenesis focused near surface
1.0° GFS
Fn magnitude [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1] shaded in green–blue, RH shaded in orange, θ (K) contoured in gray, wind barbs (m s−1), and ω<0 (µb s−1) contoured in red
Cross Section of Fn Magnitude: 1200 UTC 1 September 2006
925–500 hPa layer-avg Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1),θ (K) contoured in green, and Fn div–con (10−15 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
Strongest frontogenesis focused near surface
1.0° GFS
Fn magnitude [K (100 km)−1 (3 h)−1] shaded in green–blue, RH shaded in orange, θ (K) contoured in gray, wind barbs (m s−1), and ω<0 (µb s−1) contoured in red
Heaviest 6-h precip along and on cold side of surface boundary
6-h precipitation (in) ending at 1200 UTC 1 September 2006
0600 UTC 1 September 2006
NPVU QPE
Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 1.0 × 10−10), θ (K) contoured in green, streamlines contoured in black, and Fn div–con (10−14 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
1200 UTC 1 September 2006
~0.6° surface data
Heaviest 6-h precip along and on cold side of surface boundary
6-h precipitation (in) ending at 1800 UTC 1 September 2006
1200 UTC 1 September 2006
NPVU QPE
Fn vectors (10−10 K m−1 s−1 beginning at 1.0 × 10−10), θ (K) contoured in green, streamlines contoured in black, and Fn div–con (10−14 K m−2 s−1) shaded in cool–warm colors
1800 UTC 1 September 2006
~0.6° surface data
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