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    . . MSc () Team Site: A.E.A.C. Co. Project Manager-Site Administrator e-mail: [email protected], My Blog, Twitter, Linkedin

    08/10/2015

    - . (Technical Analysis) . (Fundamental Analysis), (). 1 Motor Oil, , , - , , , . 1) () ), () 3) ,() 4) ,elroseKuwaitEnergyo,VegasilGAS - () 5) Elpedison BV ( )

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    6) , ( ) )( ) )()

    Keywords: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, stock market, corporation, MACD, William %R, SMA, EMA, Stochastic Oscillator, RSI, CCI, Bollinger Bands, ROE, ROA, Current Ratio, EPS, EBITDA, EBT

    (Technical Analysis) . , . . 1) (, / , , , , ) 2) . 3) . 4) -, .

    (Fundamental Analysis)

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    1) , 2) , , 3) . 4) , , . 5) .

    1) . ) , . ) , , . ) , . , , , ,

    ,

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    ------

    . (leading) (lagging) , .

    H , -- (bull market- uptrend), (bear market- downtrend) / (sideways trend). ( ), ( ) ( ).

    (patterns1), , (indicators), . 1) (trend) (--) 2) (volume). 3) (volatility). 4) (momentum). .

    1 .

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    (oscillator), , (overbought), , (sell signal). , (oversell), (buy signal) . , .

    . . ( )

    1) (Simple Moving Average- SMA) 2) (Exponential Moving Average- EMA) 3) MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). 4) Bollinger Bands 5) Commodity Channel Index 6) Relative Strength Index 7) William %R 8) Stochastic Oscillator

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    1) SMA (Simple Moving Average)

    , . , . , SMA (lagging) . , SMA .

    ---- SMA

    (Close Price), (), (SMA)

    SMA=++++ (P= Close Price, N= )

    , , , . , (), 1 . , SMA ,1. , , . , SMA 5 (5-days SMA),SMA 50 (50-days SMA), 5-days SMA 50-days SMA, (signal) (uptrend)5-days SMA 50-days SMA, (signal) (downtrend).

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    SMA. , SMA 10 (10-days SMA) 1-days SMA (signal) (uptrend) 1-days SMA (signal) (downtrend). , SMA (lagging), , .

    2) EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

    EMA, . SMA , (lagging) . EMA, , . , ,

    ---- EMA

    (Close Price), (), (EMA)

    SMA .

    t=1 EMA1=SMA

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    EMAt= + , t>1 , (P= Close Price) 0

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    ---- MACD

    (Close Price)

    MACD= EMA(Close Price, 12 days) - EMA(Close Price, 26 days) Signal= EMA(MACD, 9 days) Divergence = MACD Signal

    MACD Signal, (bear market), . MACD Signal, (bull market), . MACD ,

    4) Bollinger Bands

    John Bollinger, 1 (volatility bands) . , . . Bollinger Bands . , Bollinger Bands -Tops(*) W-Bottoms(*) .

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    ollinger ands (middle zone) (upper zone, lower zone). (SMA3), 20 . H +2 (upper zone) (middle zone), -2 (lower zone) .

    *-Tops: , , , () . *W-Bottoms: , W, , () .

    W- Bottom M-Tops

    3 SMA= Simple Moving Average

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    ---- Bollinger Bands

    (Close Price) (Standard Deviation)

    Middle Zone= 20 days SMA of Close Price Upper Zone= Middle Zone + 2*Standard Deviation(20 days) of Close price Lower Zone= Middle Zone - 2*Standard Deviation(20 days) of Close price

    (SMA) () SMA,

    5) Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

    onald Lambert 1 . , (ETFs, , ). CCI . CCI , . , CCI , . , CCI (overbought), (oversell).

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    ---- CCI

    (Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). (Typical Price)

    Typical Price= + +

    CCI= ,

    CCI +100 , , . CCI -100 , , . +1 -100 CCI , +-200, .

    6) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

    Welles Wilder, 1 (oscillator). .

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    ---- RSI

    RSI= +

    RS=

    4 14 (14 days CMA). , (Close Price) (upward) (downward)

    1.

    Close Price(t) Close Price(t-1). Close(t) Close(t-1). >0 Upward (U) (Gain) Close(t) Close(t-1). 1: CMA(t) = +1

    4 ,

    (Smoothing Moving Average)

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    3.

    RSI= + 5

    RSI 1 (overbought) (oversell) RSI . ,

    RSI (oscillator) ( ) RSI .

    7) William %R

    Larry William, . (oscillator) Fast Stochastic Oscillator. O William %R, , N .

    5 CMA(D,1)(),RS RSI=100.

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    ---- William %R

    (Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). 14 (1).

    %R= -100*

    -1 (-,) (overbought) (-100,-) (oversell), . -50 (-50,0), . (-100,-50) 125-days %R, . 125-days %R -50. . 125-days %R -50. .

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    8) Stochastic Oscillator

    George Lane, , 1 (oscillator) George Lane (momentum) , .

    ---- Stochastic Oscillator.

    (Close Price), (High Price) (Low Price). 14 (1).

    %K= %D=(3 days SMA) of %K

    Stochastic Oscillator, ,%K %D. %D, (signal) MACD. %K %D (signal), (bear market), . %K %D (signal), (bull market), .

    Stochastic Oscillator, %R.

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    Stochastic Oscillator 0 +1 %R Stochastic Oscillator, (overbought) (oversell). %K (,1) (overbought) (0,20) (oversell), . , (80,100), , (,) .

    50 (50,100), . (0,50) .

    Stochastic Oscillator. Stochastic Oscillator .

    1) Fast Stochastic Oscillator ( Stochastic Oscillator). , George Lane ,

    2) Slow Stochastic Oscillator. Fast Stochastic Oscillator. .

    ) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Fast %) Fast %= Clece cle ceLw PceH PceLw Pce

    ) 3 Fast Stochastic Oscillator, Slow

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    ) 3 Slow %K, Slow %D (signal)

    Slow %K= (3 days SMA) of Fast Stochastic Oscillator Slow %D=(3 days SMA) of Slow %K

    Slow Stochastic Oscillator , (smoothing) (SMA) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (momentum) .

    3) Full Stochastic Oscillator. %K %D. Fast Stochastic Oscillator , 14 , , Full Stochastic Oscillator, .

    ) Fast Stochastic Oscillator (Fast %) Fast %= Clece cle ceLw PceH PceLw Pce

    ) M1 Fast Stochastic Oscillator, Full

    ) M2 Full , Full %D (signal)

    Full %K= (M1 days SMA) of Fast Stochastic Oscillator Full %D=(M2 days SMA) of Full %K

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    ------

    , . , , , ( , , , - , , ). , (business plan), (business strategy), - (trademark), (customer relationships), (reputation) (goodwill), (R&D) , , . ,

    1) () 2) () 3) (AAE ROA) 4) (AA-ROE) 5) (A) 6) (EPS) 7) () 8) 9) () 10) ()

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    1)

    , , , , , , ,

    ---- .

    ++

    2

    () , -

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    ---- .

    3(AAE ROA)

    , ) , ) ), , ,

    ---- .

    ROA=

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    4) AA-ROE)

    , ,

    ----

    ROE=

    ,

    ---- .

    =

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    (EPS)

    EPS , , , ( ), , , , t t+1 (split), , , EPS ,EPS , , ( ) , EPS , EPS ( ,)

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    ---- .

    EPS=

    7)

    ,,,, , ,

    ---- .

    =

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    8)

    ( ) ) - ( ) , ) , . , . ) (Break Event Point). - . . - , . , , . . 1) ) -, ) ) -

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    ) .

    9(EBT).

    , (Earnings Before Taxes- EBT). . , , , , ( ), -

    10

    , , . , ,

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    ().

    ()

    ()

    , ,

    ( , EBITDA)

    ,

    ()

    (EBT)

    ( ) (/ )

    1. EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA: , )

    2. EBIT ( ): Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT: () ) EBIT= -

    3. () - ()-

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    ( ) 01/01/2014 31/12/2014 1 , , - , , , . .

    excel

    excel , (sheet) , (technical_analysis_ELPE.xls) , .

    -

    , , , . ,

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    1) SMA

    10-DAY SMA . , , , SMA . , SMA, (lagging) , 10 . , 1-days SMA 1-days SMA 06/2014-07/2014 1-days SMA, 04/2014 1 1-days SMA.

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    SMA

    Close Price

    10-DAY SMA

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    2) EMA

    10-DAY EMA , EMA, (lagging) , 1 . , 1-days EMA 1-days EMA 06/2014-07/2014 1-days EMA, 04/2014 1 1-days EMA. EMA SMA, , .

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    EMA

    Close Price

    10-DAY EMA

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    3) MACD.

    MACD, . MACD MACD Signal, (bear market), MACD Signal, (bull market), , , , MACD. 1 1 MACD Signal , MACD Signal, . ( 04/2014 04/2014), MACD Signal. 1 1, MACD Signal , MACD Signal, . 1 1, MACD Signal. 09/2014 10/2014, MACD Signal , , .

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    4) Bollinger Bands

    Bollinger Bands. , , . W- Bottom, , , , . , Bollinger M- Tops W-Bottoms

    -0.5

    -0.4

    -0.3

    -0.2

    -0.1

    0

    0.1

    0.2

    MACD & SIGNAL

    MACD

    SIGNAL

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    5) Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

    ,CCI . CCI , ,CCI , . +1 -100 . +1 -1 , , +-200. CCI . , CCI +1-100 , ( 1),

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    BOLLINGER BANDS

    MIDDLE BAND

    UPPER BAND

    LOWER BAND

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    6) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

    , RSI 1 (overbought) (oversell) RSI (oscillator) () RSI ++ (+70) , (+30) , ,

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    CCI

    CCI

    - 100 LINE

    +100 LINE

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    ,RSI ,

    7) William %R

    , %R ,14 -100 0. (-,) (overbought) (-100,-) (oversell), - (-,), (-100,-50) . (-100,-) (-,), , (-80,-) . .

    0.00

    10.00

    20.00

    30.00

    40.00

    50.00

    60.00

    70.00

    80.00RSI

    RSI

    +30 LINE

    +70 LINE

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    R CCI, CCI CCI

    8) Stochastic Oscillator

    Stochastic Oscillator,,(oscillator) (momentum) ,. Stochastic Oscillator, , %K %D %D, (signal) MACD. %K %D (signal), (bear market),

    -120

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0WILLIAM %R

    William R

    -80LINE

    -20 LINE

    -50 LINE

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    %K %D (signal), (bull market), Stochastic Oscillator,Stochastic Oscillator +1 %K (,1) (overbought) (,) (oversell), (,1), (,) .

    D (signal), D, , D, . , , . , D (3 Days SMA) Slow Stochastic Oscillator .

    , . , + + , . , (+10, +90) . , + ,

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    +, .

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120 %K &%D

    %K

    %D

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120 %K

    %K

    _+80 LINE

    _+20 LINE

    _ +50 LINE

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    1

    , 0. .91, . , , , , , . , - , , , . . , , ,

    2014 0,703 0,837 0,912 0,806

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    2)

    , . , , . , , , , . -0.022 -0.036, . , . , . 1, , 1 / , . , , / , . / , . , , .

    2014 -0,022 -0,013 -0,017 -0,036

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    3) (AAE ROA)

    (), . -0.008 -0.046, , . , , , , , , .

    , . , , , , () , ,

    2014 (ROA) -0,008 -0,008 -0,017 -0,046

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    4) AA-ROE)

    ROE -0.027 -0.266 . ROE , ROE, , , . , , 1 , . , , ROE. , . AKK, ROA, ROE, , , .

    2014 (ROE) -0,027 -0,034 -0,074 -0,266

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    5) (AI)

    . 17 0.28, , , , . , . , , , . , , 1) , 2) , 3) , 4) )

    2014 0,28 0,24 0,228 0,173

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    6) (EPS)

    EPS , , EPS , EPS -0.14 -1.03, 1 cents 1 . , (ROE, ROA), . , , , , ( , - , ), ,

    2014 EPS -0,14 -0,17 -0,36 -1,03

    1 , , ,

    2014 1,24 2,65 4,39 7,4

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    - - .

    , , (, , , ) , . . 313 , , , . , . , , . , / , . .

    2014 1.928.825.000 4.127.881.000 6.542.111.000 8.750.184.000 -57.993.000 -60.736.000 -150.548.000 -426.705.000 -42.250.000 -52.707.000 -110.504.000 -313.550.000

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    , , , . , , , , . , , , , .

    , . , . , , . , , . , . , , , ,

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    , , , , .

    -

    [1] (- 2006) [2] ( - 2006) [](University Studio Press- 2009) [](- 2002 [](EisenJPeter- 1997) [6] (- 2002) [7]Risk Management (- 2006) [](. Eurocapital- 1997) [](etapublications- 1999) [10] ( Nomismatus RPI- 2000) [11] Technical analysis, plain and simple (Kahn Michael. FT Press- 2006) [12] Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (Murphy John. New York Institute of Finance- 1999)

    www.wikipedia.org www.stockcharts.com

    www.elpe.gr

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    (patterns)

    DOUBLE TOP

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    HEAD and SHOULDER TOP

    ASCEDING TRIANGLE

    [10] ( . Nomismatus RPI- 2000)