Investor Pain and AAII Bearish Sentiment
3
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Dec-28 Dec-33 Dec-38 Dec-43 Dec-48 Dec-53 Dec-58 Dec-63 Dec-68 Dec-73 Dec-78 Dec-83 Dec-88 Dec-93 Dec-98 Dec-03 Dec-08 Investor Pain Index 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average t Investor Pain Index μ Dow
-
Upload
jonathan-smith -
Category
Economy & Finance
-
view
157 -
download
2
Transcript of Investor Pain and AAII Bearish Sentiment
τµ
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%D
ec-2
8
Dec
-33
Dec
-38
Dec
-43
Dec
-48
Dec
-53
Dec
-58
Dec
-63
Dec
-68
Dec
-73
Dec
-78
Dec
-83
Dec
-88
Dec
-93
Dec
-98
Dec
-03
Dec
-08
Inve
stor
Pai
n In
dex
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Dow
Jon
es In
dust
rial A
vera
ge
t Investor Pain Index µ Dow
τµ
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Inve
stor
Pai
n In
dex
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
Dow
Jon
es In
dust
rial A
vera
ge
t Investor Pain Index µ Dow
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Bea
rish
Sent
imen
t
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
S&P
24 m
o. fw
s pe
rfor
man
ce
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDevS&P performance 24 mos. fwd 100 per. Mov. Avg. (AAII Bearish Sentiment)
Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 years
In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 24 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose
