Η ανάδειξη της...

Click here to load reader

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Η ανάδειξη της...

  • , 2014

    1

    :

    . .

    10 ,

    ,

    .

    , [1],

    ,

    .

    ,

    [2]. Mearsheimer [3],

    :

    1. ,

    2. , (

    , , ...)

    3. .

    .

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

    2008 . , ,

    2014 .

    ,

    , ,

  • , 2014

    2

    , ..

    .

    ,

    , [4]

    :

    .

    -

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    10 ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    . .

    ,

  • , 2014

    3

    ,

    .

    , . ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    [5],

    ,

    [1].

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    . 2014

    18,4% ,

    2015 2016 (21,6% 11,6% ).

    1 (: www.forbes.com)

    , ,

    ,

    .., ...

    : ) )

    .

    http://www.forbes.com/

  • , 2014

    4

    , ,

    ,

    , , ..

    2013 : )

    Ed. Snowden, ...

    ) ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    [6] :

    1. , ,

    2. ,

    3. , , .

    , ...

    [1].

    ,

    , ,

    .

    , ... ,

    ,

    ,

    [7].

    , 1999

    , (,

    , ),

    [8].

  • , 2014

    5

    2004

    (, ,

    ). ,

    ,

    Kaliningrad

    , .

    ,

    ...

    2

    , 1

    1 ..

    Andrey Kozyrev 1990.

  • , 2014

    6

    : (

    ), [9]. 2008,

    , . ,

    .

    [10],

    .

    , ,

    . ..

    :

    1.

    ,

    2.

    .

    ,

    . ..

    ,

    .

    ,

    . . ,

    . 1990,

    [11].

    2003, .

    ,

    ,

    (),

    [11].

    , .

  • , 2014

    7

    ( ) (

    ) . ,

    [12].

    ,

    .

    2005 ,

    , . . Kokoiti

    [11].

    ,

    . 2008

    de facto .

    ,

    ,

    [13].

    (

    ),

    ,

    .

    . ,

    (, ),

    2008 [14]

    .

    7 2008.

    ,

    .

    [11].

    8 2008

    ,

    10 . ,

    .

    ,

  • , 2014

    8

    [11].

    3 (: J. Nichon [11])

    ,

    [13]. ,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    , [11],

    .

    ,

    G-8

    ,

    [11]. 2008

    , , .

    [11] .

  • , 2014

    9

    ,

    [15]

    [11].

    [11].

    ,

    [11].

    ,

    ,

    [16].

    , ,

    , : )

    ,

    , )

    ,

    .

    , .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    , .

    ,

    [17]

    .

    ,

    , :

    1. , ,

    ,

    , .

  • , 2014

    10

    2. , 23% ,

    50%,

    .

    ,

    .

    2013

    2,

    [18].

    3. , 70%-75%

    , .

    .

    . ,

    ,

    [19].

    4. ,

    .

    [20] [21].

    2004,

    , .

    , : ) .., )

    GUAM3 (

    ) )

    .

    [4]

    [22].

    2005-2006 2007-2008.

    ,

    ,

    2 ..

    3 1997 Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova

    , (Fragonikolopoulos, 2001)

  • , 2014

    11

    2017.

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    [23].

    2010, . ,

    ,

    .

    25 ,

    ..4

    5. ,

    2014,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    2014

    .

    , : )

    , )

    , ) )

    ,

    Kaliningrad.

    , ,

    4 2007 2011.

    5 2010 , 2015

    : . , ..

    .

  • , 2014

    12

    .

    , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    , .. ...,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    [24],

    ,

    ,

    Kaliningrad,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    , .

    , , ,

    ,

    . ,

  • , 2014

    13

    , . ,

    ,

    , ...,

    [25],

    .. ,

    , .

    ,

    , ,

    [26], ,

    , . ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    [18],

    6,

    ,

    [19]. ,

    ,

    [20] [21].

    -

    ,

    ,

    . ...

    7,

    ,

    / .

    6 ..

    7 : BTC, Baku Supsa South Caucasus Pipeline

  • , 2014

    14

    ,

    ,

    . ..

    ...

    (.. )

    status quo ,

    ,

    [13].

  • , 2014

    15

    [1] . , " -

    ," , vol. 3, pp. 1-8 2010. [2] R. Gilpin, "War and change in world politics," 1981. [3] J. J. Mearsheimer, The tragedy of Great Power politics. New York: Norton, 2001. [4] F. Proedrou, "Ukraine's foreign policy : accounting for Ukraine's indeterminate

    stance between Russia and the West," Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea studies, vol. 10, 2010.

    [5] M. T. Klare, Rising powers, shrinking planet: the new geopolitics of energy. New York: Metropolitan Books, 2008.

    [6] E. B. Rumer and A. Stent, "Russia and the West," Survival, vol. 51, 2009. [7] M. M. Balmaceda, "On the edge Ukrainian-Central European-Russian security

    triangle," S. American Council of Learned, Ed. Budapest: Central European University Press, 2000.

    [8] A. Stent, Russia and Germany reborn : unification, the Soviet collapse, and the new Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999.

    [9] S. Ivanov, "Russia Must be Strong," in The Wall Street Journal, 20