ttbar τ + jets:Update on QCD Estimation
William EdsonSUNY at Albany
Fit Selection Results
New Results for Fit: Signal Fraction:
0.691497±0.0411817 Chi2: 28.25 Meas. Used: 31 σ: 166.798±9.93353
New Corrected Results: Signal Fraction: ±
0.0411817 σ: ± 9.93353 Correction Systematic:
±
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Var (absolute)
Variation (%)
Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862
- -
JER0.672992 0.692880603 167.5993007 3.53998543 2.068482059
JRE0.689147 0.707385523 171.2348493 0.095563102 0.055839371
JES up0.663975 0.684784604 152.7217185 -18.4175677 -10.76174158
JES down0.710838 0.726860993 190.72686 19.58757378 11.44539879
JVF up0.691927 0.709881572 170.3753194 -0.76396679 -0.446400594
JVF down0.691266 0.709288087 171.920106 0.780819801 0.456248135
BSF up0.692051 0.709992907 167.1024462 -4.03683995 -2.358803779
BSF down0.691526 0.709521531 175.5254023 4.386116121 2.562892612
MET up0.677634 0.697048466 165.9477234 -5.19156276 -3.033530687
MET down0.697884 0.715230121 175.757534 4.618247814 2.698531656
Tau trig up0.715279 0.730848387 175.0210629 3.881776726 2.268197334
Tau trig down 0.660496 0.68166095 166.215518 -4.92376819 -2.87705313
TES up0.696876 0.714325079 172.8675657 1.728279479 1.009867177
TES down0.676512 0.696041068 173.2426473 2.103361144 1.22903466
Tau Eveto SF up 0.69179 0.709758566 171.1773904 0.038104221 0.022265035
Tau Eveto SF down 0.691205 0.709233318 171.1011864 -0.03809979 -0.022262447
Systematics Contd.
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Variation (absolute)
Variation (%)
Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862
- -
Wnorm Up0.680859 0.699944063 160.4218101 -10.717476 -6.262428849
Wnorm Down 0.702949 0.71977778 182.2712656 11.13197946 6.504631232QCD
Bin/Range 0.652323 0.674322745 162.6551745 -8.4841117 -4.957430812HiISR
0.66 0.681215612 124.2431066 LowISR
0.66682 0.687339014 108.920082 7.661512298 4.476770044QCD Template
> 0.580.700997 0.718025158 173.1967493
< 0.580.680189 0.699342497 168.6902553 4.506494 2.633232
Top Mass
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Variation (absolute)
Variation (%)
Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862
- -
SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.714148201 159.4537195 - - 167.5
0.680298 0.699440364 179.2634656 19.80974604 11.57521834170.0
0.689551 0.707748258 167.4381789 7.98445939 4.665474286175.0
0.694819 0.712478182 151.4001465 -8.05357303 -4.705858725177.5
0.673263 0.693123923 140.7577336 -18.6959859 -10.92442672
𝑠𝑓=(𝜎 (𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑟𝑒𝑓 . ) {=177.31 }𝜎 (𝑟𝑒𝑓 )𝑖 )∗𝑘𝑓𝑎𝑐 𝑖∗𝜎 (𝐹𝐸 )𝑖∗( 𝐿𝑢𝑚𝑖
𝑁 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙)
MC Generator
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Variation (absolute)
Variation (%)
Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862
- -
AlpHerwig (baseline) 0.704682 0.72133377 145.2781938 14.17552573 8.283034273MC@NLO (105200) 0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862 11.68556665 6.828102951
SYST_AtF_105860 0.721128 0.736099968 150.947199 3.988996181 2.330847738
SYST_AtF_117050 0.663466 0.684327593 146.9582028 - -
SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.714148201 159.4537195 - -
1.1) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and MC@NLO+fHerwig sample 105200 (MC@NLO(105200)) 1.2) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and the fullsim mc11c ALPGEN+HERWIG samples (AlpHerwig(baseline)) 1.3) AtlFast2 mc11b POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_AtF_117050) POWHEG+fHerwig sample 105860 (SYST_AtF_105860)
Back-up
QCD Template: Correlation Plots
Oddity?
MET
Dije
t Mass
Oddity?
MET
Dije
t Mass
QCD Bin/RangeSample Fraction Cor.
Fractionσ Variation Variation
(%)
Nominal 0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862 - -
Range+1 0.685245 0.703882075 169.7852589 -1.35402732 -0.791184394Range+2 0.684087 0.702842354 169.5344649 -1.60482125 -0.937728144Range+3 0.680152 0.699309277 168.682242 -2.45704414 -1.435698488Range-1 0.708654 0.724900068 174.8550646 3.715778438 2.171201318Range-2 0.674656 0.694374641 167.4919455 -3.64734072 -2.131211832Range-3 0.686839 0.705313263 170.1304795 -1.00880667 -0.589465276Bins+1 0.712367 0.728233821 175.6592078 4.519921664 2.641077782Bins+2 0.66001 0.681224591 164.319987 -6.81929916 -3.984648593Bins-1 0.652323 0.674322745 162.6551745 -8.4841117 -4.957430812Bins-2 0.680357 0.699493338 168.7266399 -2.41264625 -1.409755941
Range increases/decreases in steps of 20GeVBin amount increases/decreases in steps of 5
Linearity Test to All Values
Y(0): -0.186462 ± 0.0013857 Slope: 1.23971 ± 0.00246245 Chi2: 32.7364 NDF: 8998
Linearity Test to Means
Slope: 1.23772 ± 0.0351884 y-intercept: -0.184483 ± 0.0198016Chi2: 0.00520053 NDF: 7
Mean Values of Ensemble Fits
Input Fraction
Previous Gaussian
Mean Output Fraction
Unc. Gaussian Mean
Output Fraction
Unc.
0.1 -0.0899462 0.00362867 -0.0998291 0.00487524
0.2 0.0538521 0.00207006 0.0501427 0.00241776
0.3 0.174326 0.00183766 0.204145 0.00187353
0.4 0.298044 0.00158434 0.335251 0.00170598
0.5 0.419200 0.00143606 0.460622 0.00147548
0.6 0.536226 0.00135077 0.580640 0.00134429
0.7 0.651246 0.00124441 0.689419 0.00114811
0.8 0.762769 0.00124064 0.794341 0.00116489
0.9 0.875338 0.00137805 0.894616 0.00111430
0.626089 0.566095 0.00132265
0.664442 0.651099 0.00120115
Adjust Range for Linear Fit?
Range Fit to Means Fit to All Values
Corrected σ
Y(0) Slope Y(0) Slope
0.1 – 0.9 -0.184483
1.23770 -0.18646
92
1.23971 176.524
0.2 – 0.9 -0.156549
1.19581 -0.15581
5
1.19374 176.719
0.3 – 0.9 -0.124079
1.14942 -0.12331 1.1473 176.586
0.4 – 0.9 -0.099726
5
1.11622 -0.09871
07
1.11376 176.223
MC Tau PlotsMC Tau Count MC Tau Children
pdgIDMC Tau Children Count
Leptonic pdgID values: e → 11, μ → 13, τ → 15
MT Signal vs Control vs MC Backgrounds
Samples Normalized to Own Integrals
Samples Normalized to Sum of Integrals
Fits/Hists for Ensemble Tests
Cutflow C0: GRL C1: Trigger C2: Primary vertex with ntracks > 4 C3: Electron/muon overlap C4: Jet cleaning C5: Lepton Veto C6: tau n ≥ 1 C7: njets >= 4 with eta < 2.5 and |jvf| > 0.75 C8: MET > 60GeV C9: MT < 80GeV C10: >= 1 bjet
C11: Trigger matched tau n ≥ 1 and pT >= 40GeV C12: MC tau object match
Chi-squared minimization
Equation:
N(x): total number of events of type x for distribution n(x)i: number of events in bin of type x frac(Sig): fraction of N(Remain) expected to be Signal binfrac(x)i: fraction of events in bin of type x expected
from MC or template σi: uncertainty in bin i
2
i
iiii2
σ
)n(OB)D)binfrac(QC*N(Remain)*frac(QCD)g)binfrac(si*N(Remain)*(frac(Sig)n(Data)χ
N(OB) - N(Data) N(Remain)
frac(Sig) - 1 frac(QCD)
Chi-squared minimization cont.
σi determined using factors for: bin error:
data signal, MC QCD template other backgrounds, MC
statistical error: data: signal region other backgrounds, MC signal, MC QCD template (uncertainty of background region
data and all MC background region carried through via default SumW2
Highest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 9.818 p-value: 0.7753 ndf: 14 chi/ndf: 0.7012
2nd Highest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 13.66 p-value: 0.5517 ndf: 15 chi/ndf: 0.9107
Dijet Mass reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 15.47 p-value: 0.6297 ndf: 18 chi/ndf: 0.8594
MET
Results for plot: chi-square: 15.87 p-value: 0.1971 ndf: 12 chi/ndf: 1.323
Closest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 14.39 p-value: 0.2123 ndf: 11 chi/ndf: 1.308
New Event Selection Verification (Only uses MC so Excludes QCD)
Cut Sig Evts
Fakes Sig Eff. Fake Ratio
Rej Fact.
Sig/sqrt(Bkg
d)
Sig/Sqrt(Sig
+Bkgd)
C5Lep Veto
5863 1451086
- - - 4.867 4.857
C6ntaus >
0
5863 138276 1 0.09529 0.04240 15.77 15.44
C7njets
3191 11025 0.5443 0.07973 0.5318 30.39 26.76
C8MET
2583 7598 0.8095 0.6892 0.41998 29.63 25.60
C9MT
1892 3968 0.7325 0.5222 0.6510 30.04 24.72
C10bjet
1650 1230 0.8721 0.30998 1.538 47.05 30.75
C12Trig
match
941 335 0.5703 0.2724 4.925 51.41 26.34
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