ttbar τ + jets:Update on QCD Estimation

William EdsonSUNY at Albany

Fit Selection Results

New Results for Fit: Signal Fraction:

0.691497±0.0411817 Chi2: 28.25 Meas. Used: 31 σ: 166.798±9.93353

New Corrected Results: Signal Fraction: ±

0.0411817 σ: ± 9.93353 Correction Systematic:

±

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Var (absolute)

Variation (%)

Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862

- -

JER0.672992 0.692880603 167.5993007 3.53998543 2.068482059

JRE0.689147 0.707385523 171.2348493 0.095563102 0.055839371

JES up0.663975 0.684784604 152.7217185 -18.4175677 -10.76174158

JES down0.710838 0.726860993 190.72686 19.58757378 11.44539879

JVF up0.691927 0.709881572 170.3753194 -0.76396679 -0.446400594

JVF down0.691266 0.709288087 171.920106 0.780819801 0.456248135

BSF up0.692051 0.709992907 167.1024462 -4.03683995 -2.358803779

BSF down0.691526 0.709521531 175.5254023 4.386116121 2.562892612

MET up0.677634 0.697048466 165.9477234 -5.19156276 -3.033530687

MET down0.697884 0.715230121 175.757534 4.618247814 2.698531656

Tau trig up0.715279 0.730848387 175.0210629 3.881776726 2.268197334

Tau trig down 0.660496 0.68166095 166.215518 -4.92376819 -2.87705313

TES up0.696876 0.714325079 172.8675657 1.728279479 1.009867177

TES down0.676512 0.696041068 173.2426473 2.103361144 1.22903466

Tau Eveto SF up 0.69179 0.709758566 171.1773904 0.038104221 0.022265035

Tau Eveto SF down 0.691205 0.709233318 171.1011864 -0.03809979 -0.022262447

Systematics Contd.

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Variation (absolute)

Variation (%)

Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862

- -

Wnorm Up0.680859 0.699944063 160.4218101 -10.717476 -6.262428849

Wnorm Down 0.702949 0.71977778 182.2712656 11.13197946 6.504631232QCD

Bin/Range 0.652323 0.674322745 162.6551745 -8.4841117 -4.957430812HiISR

0.66 0.681215612 124.2431066    LowISR

0.66682 0.687339014 108.920082 7.661512298 4.476770044QCD Template

> 0.580.700997 0.718025158 173.1967493    

< 0.580.680189 0.699342497 168.6902553 4.506494 2.633232

Top Mass

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Variation (absolute)

Variation (%)

Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862

- -

SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.714148201 159.4537195  - - 167.5

0.680298 0.699440364 179.2634656 19.80974604 11.57521834170.0

0.689551 0.707748258 167.4381789 7.98445939 4.665474286175.0

0.694819 0.712478182 151.4001465 -8.05357303 -4.705858725177.5

0.673263 0.693123923 140.7577336 -18.6959859 -10.92442672

𝑠𝑓=(𝜎 (𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑟𝑒𝑓 . ) {=177.31 }𝜎 (𝑟𝑒𝑓 )𝑖 )∗𝑘𝑓𝑎𝑐 𝑖∗𝜎 (𝐹𝐸 )𝑖∗( 𝐿𝑢𝑚𝑖

𝑁 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙)

MC Generator

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Variation (absolute)

Variation (%)

Nominal0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862

- -

AlpHerwig (baseline) 0.704682 0.72133377 145.2781938 14.17552573 8.283034273MC@NLO (105200) 0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862 11.68556665 6.828102951

SYST_AtF_105860 0.721128 0.736099968 150.947199 3.988996181 2.330847738

SYST_AtF_117050 0.663466 0.684327593 146.9582028  - - 

SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.714148201 159.4537195  -  -

1.1) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and MC@NLO+fHerwig sample 105200 (MC@NLO(105200)) 1.2) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and the fullsim mc11c ALPGEN+HERWIG samples (AlpHerwig(baseline)) 1.3) AtlFast2 mc11b POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_AtF_117050) POWHEG+fHerwig sample 105860 (SYST_AtF_105860)

Back-up

QCD Template: Correlation Plots

Oddity?

MET

Dije

t Mass

Oddity?

MET

Dije

t Mass

QCD Bin/RangeSample Fraction Cor.

Fractionσ Variation Variation

(%)

Nominal 0.691497 0.709495493 171.1392862 - -

Range+1 0.685245 0.703882075 169.7852589 -1.35402732 -0.791184394Range+2 0.684087 0.702842354 169.5344649 -1.60482125 -0.937728144Range+3 0.680152 0.699309277 168.682242 -2.45704414 -1.435698488Range-1 0.708654 0.724900068 174.8550646 3.715778438 2.171201318Range-2 0.674656 0.694374641 167.4919455 -3.64734072 -2.131211832Range-3 0.686839 0.705313263 170.1304795 -1.00880667 -0.589465276Bins+1 0.712367 0.728233821 175.6592078 4.519921664 2.641077782Bins+2 0.66001 0.681224591 164.319987 -6.81929916 -3.984648593Bins-1 0.652323 0.674322745 162.6551745 -8.4841117 -4.957430812Bins-2 0.680357 0.699493338 168.7266399 -2.41264625 -1.409755941

Range increases/decreases in steps of 20GeVBin amount increases/decreases in steps of 5

Linearity Test to All Values

Y(0): -0.186462 ± 0.0013857 Slope: 1.23971 ± 0.00246245 Chi2: 32.7364 NDF: 8998

Linearity Test to Means

Slope: 1.23772 ± 0.0351884 y-intercept: -0.184483 ± 0.0198016Chi2: 0.00520053 NDF: 7

Mean Values of Ensemble Fits

Input Fraction

Previous Gaussian

Mean Output Fraction

Unc. Gaussian Mean

Output Fraction

Unc.

0.1 -0.0899462 0.00362867 -0.0998291 0.00487524

0.2 0.0538521 0.00207006 0.0501427 0.00241776

0.3 0.174326 0.00183766 0.204145 0.00187353

0.4 0.298044 0.00158434 0.335251 0.00170598

0.5 0.419200 0.00143606 0.460622 0.00147548

0.6 0.536226 0.00135077 0.580640 0.00134429

0.7 0.651246 0.00124441 0.689419 0.00114811

0.8 0.762769 0.00124064 0.794341 0.00116489

0.9 0.875338 0.00137805 0.894616 0.00111430

0.626089 0.566095 0.00132265

0.664442 0.651099 0.00120115

Adjust Range for Linear Fit?

Range Fit to Means Fit to All Values

Corrected σ

Y(0) Slope Y(0) Slope

0.1 – 0.9 -0.184483

1.23770 -0.18646

92

1.23971 176.524

0.2 – 0.9 -0.156549

1.19581 -0.15581

5

1.19374 176.719

0.3 – 0.9 -0.124079

1.14942 -0.12331 1.1473 176.586

0.4 – 0.9 -0.099726

5

1.11622 -0.09871

07

1.11376 176.223

MC Tau PlotsMC Tau Count MC Tau Children

pdgIDMC Tau Children Count

Leptonic pdgID values: e → 11, μ → 13, τ → 15

MT Signal vs Control vs MC Backgrounds

Samples Normalized to Own Integrals

Samples Normalized to Sum of Integrals

Fits/Hists for Ensemble Tests

Cutflow C0: GRL C1: Trigger C2: Primary vertex with ntracks > 4 C3: Electron/muon overlap C4: Jet cleaning C5: Lepton Veto C6: tau n ≥ 1 C7: njets >= 4 with eta < 2.5 and |jvf| > 0.75 C8: MET > 60GeV C9: MT < 80GeV C10: >= 1 bjet

C11: Trigger matched tau n ≥ 1 and pT >= 40GeV C12: MC tau object match

Chi-squared minimization

Equation:

N(x): total number of events of type x for distribution n(x)i: number of events in bin of type x frac(Sig): fraction of N(Remain) expected to be Signal binfrac(x)i: fraction of events in bin of type x expected

from MC or template σi: uncertainty in bin i

2

i

iiii2

σ

)n(OB)D)binfrac(QC*N(Remain)*frac(QCD)g)binfrac(si*N(Remain)*(frac(Sig)n(Data)χ

N(OB) - N(Data) N(Remain)

frac(Sig) - 1 frac(QCD)

Chi-squared minimization cont.

σi determined using factors for: bin error:

data signal, MC QCD template other backgrounds, MC

statistical error: data: signal region other backgrounds, MC signal, MC QCD template (uncertainty of background region

data and all MC background region carried through via default SumW2

Highest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 9.818 p-value: 0.7753 ndf: 14 chi/ndf: 0.7012

2nd Highest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 13.66 p-value: 0.5517 ndf: 15 chi/ndf: 0.9107

Dijet Mass reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 15.47 p-value: 0.6297 ndf: 18 chi/ndf: 0.8594

MET

Results for plot: chi-square: 15.87 p-value: 0.1971 ndf: 12 chi/ndf: 1.323

Closest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 14.39 p-value: 0.2123 ndf: 11 chi/ndf: 1.308

New Event Selection Verification (Only uses MC so Excludes QCD)

Cut Sig Evts

Fakes Sig Eff. Fake Ratio

Rej Fact.

Sig/sqrt(Bkg

d)

Sig/Sqrt(Sig

+Bkgd)

C5Lep Veto

5863 1451086

- - - 4.867 4.857

C6ntaus >

0

5863 138276 1 0.09529 0.04240 15.77 15.44

C7njets

3191 11025 0.5443 0.07973 0.5318 30.39 26.76

C8MET

2583 7598 0.8095 0.6892 0.41998 29.63 25.60

C9MT

1892 3968 0.7325 0.5222 0.6510 30.04 24.72

C10bjet

1650 1230 0.8721 0.30998 1.538 47.05 30.75

C12Trig

match

941 335 0.5703 0.2724 4.925 51.41 26.34