2011
&
2
&
.................................................................................................................................................... 3...................................................................................................................................... 41. .............................................................. 8
1.1. ............................................................................................................................................... 81.2. ....................................................................................................................... 101.3. .................................................................................................................... 15
2. ............................................................................................ 152.1. 2010 ......................................................................................................................... 152.2. 2010.......................................................................................................................... 182.3. 2010 ........................................................................................................................ 202.4. 2011(9)............................................................. 232.5. ........................................................................................................... 26
3. .............................................................................................. 283.1. ..................................................................................... 283.2. ...................................................................................................................................... 31
4. ....................................................................................................... 344.1. .......................................................................................................................................... 344.2. ....... 374.3. ...................................................................................... 44
5. ....................... 475.1. .................................... 475.2. ........................................... 505.3. ........................................................................................... 56
6. / .............................................. 626.1. .................................................................................................................... 626.2. :3431/2006 ..................................... 636.3. ............................................................................... 66
7. ........................................................................... 717.1. ........................................................................................ 717.2. ................................................... 737.3. .......................................... 807.4. 2010dataonly
........................................................................................................................................ 857.5. 50mb
........................................................................................................................................... 878. ..................................................................................... 92
8.1. ......................................................................................... 928.2. 2........................................................................... 988.3. ..................................................................... 101
...................................................................................................................................................105 .............................................................................................................................................107
3
&
ICAPGROUP
(&).
COSMOTE .E., VODAFONE .... WIND
....2008.
() 2009, 2010,
2010 2011.
.
.
,
().
4
&
20
15 ,
:
16,1% 2010 9201113,2%
, (EBITDA)18,9% 2010920117,8%
2010,836.
,:
(19,6% SMS).
27%
, , (13%SMS)
2010
6..
92%
5,4G.
.
,
.
:
12,5% 20072011
5
&
18,8% ,7,1%10%
,
50% (1.862.2010)
, EBITDA ,
,
.
, ,
.
15
.
,
.
,
.
.
(1,1%20093,2%2010).2011
6
&
6,8%.
:
30% 2.
56..
23%20% 9 .
28..
50Mb
5 .
,
165.
15
: 2010
1,6% (3,6 . ) 8,3%
.,
:,2010,
(0,066)(
28,3%).
.,:
50%20122013
7
&
:
150 . , 487.
714 . 1,5.
12
internet
(Qiang2009) 10
1,21%.
8
&
1.
1.1.
4.
20078
.2009
.
,
2010,.
0,4%
0,2% 0,5%
0,0%
1,3%
4,4%
4,4% 3,5%
0,8%
0,4%
0,7%
4,6%
8,6%
8,3%
7,4%
5,0%
2,4%
1,7% 1,6%
0,5%
2,1%
5,4% 5,7%
4,1%
1,8%
1,2%
2,4%
2,0%
1,8%2,5%
1,6%
1,2%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
(17)
1.1:
:Eurostat.
,
(18,4%2011).
,12,6%.
9
&
8,3%
6,6%
18,4%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
09
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
%
%
1.2:
:
2011
.2011
5,8%.2012,
(2011)
,4,5%,
2013,0,3%.
10
&
5,5%
6,1%
6,0%
5,8%
5,3%
6,2%
2,8%
3,0%
3,0%
2,8%
6,6%
7,5%
6,1%
0,5%
1,5%
1,0%
2,0%
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4%
,11/11
,11/11
12/11
,11/11
J.P.Morgan11/11
Economist,12/10
Ernst&Young,OxfordEconomics12/12
2011, 2012 2013
2011
2012
2013
1.3:201120122013
:,,,,J.P.Morgan,Economist,OxfordEconomics
1.2.
80,
,
.90,
.19942002, ,,
.
20002004
20082009,
.
11
&
10%
13%15%
10%12%12% 9%7% 7%6%
4% 3%
4% 4% 5%6%7%
5% 6% 7%
10%
16%
10%
9%7%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
%
%
/%
1.3:/%
:
*
**
100%1993
2007.2008
(160%2011).
12
&
166%
189%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
%
1.4:%
:
*
**
2007,
,
.LehmanBrothers
2008
. 2010, ,
.
,
.
,
20102011.
13
&
16,0%
21,3%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
07
07
07
08
08
08
09
09
09
10
10
10
11
11
11
Spread10
10
1.5:
:,,Eurostat
2011,
.
2011, 21/7/2011,
,,
.
.
,26
50%
.
. ,
,:
14
&
.90%.
.
.
( , ) 160 .
205,
100.
,
30.,70.
,
.
,
.
,.,
, (lenderof
last resort) FederalReserve .
,
. ,
,
.
( , ,
, ) ,
15
&
. ,
.
1.3.
:
.
, .
.
( ) .
, (
)
.
. ,
,,
.
.
2.
2.1. 2010
2003(3.158.
20103.254.2003):
16
&
,
,27%201016,1%
2010 3.571 . 38%18%
30%
10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
0,0000,5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Q403 Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
.
(4)
2.1:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&
BankofAmerica
2008
2009.
.
:
,
17
&
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
2.2:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&
BankofAmerica
.
SMS
.,
,
.
18
&
4,5%
4,6%
8,3%
18,3%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
2010
2.3:2010
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch
2.2. 2010
2.2.1. EBITDA
,(EBITDA)2010
1.143.,2002.
30%
10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Q403 Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
.
EBITDA
EBITDA(4)
2.4:EBITDA
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&
BankofAmerica
2008,EBITDA35%,2010
18,9%.
19
&
EBITDA 16%
EBITDA
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
EBITDA
2.5:EBITDA
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&
BankofAmerica
2.2.2.
836 . .
.
,18,4%2009
38,6%2010.
(EBITDA)
.
20
&
718
344
836
36,4%
18,4%
38,6%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1000
800
600
400
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2008 2009 2010
.
(ROE)
2.6:EBITDA
:,ICAPDatabank
ICAP,
19 2011
2,33 . 2010 (25.616 ).
.,3836.
35%().
2.3. 2010
2.3.1. (MOU)
,
.,
2010200910%,
200630%.
21
&
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
10.000.000
12.000.000
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
2.7:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
(MOU) 2 ,
.2010
, 2010 220,
(175).
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
100
125
150
175
200
225
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
MOU
MOU
MOU
2.8:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
22
&
2.3.2. (ARPU)
,
.
2011, ARPU 33%
, 2005
.O 2005 , 2010
9,4%,(4,2%).
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
ARPU
ARPU
ARPU
2.9:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
2.3.3.
5 . (24%)
2010.
.,
.
, 2010
,.
23
&
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
.
2.10:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
2.4. 2011 ( 9 )
2011
.
EBITDA. 2011,
:
3,3. 2,82,9. EBITDA11,1.
24
&
21,2%
12,5%
5,9%
13,2%
21,3%
5,9%
6,1%7,8%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 '92011
EBITDA
2.11:EBITDA
:
,
:
20102011(30% )
,
.
2011,
,.
2011 ( ),
14,4.6,3..
,,
.
25
&
6,3%
2,5%1,8%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
Q12011 Q22011* Q32011*
()
2.12:
:
*CosmoteVodafone
AMOU
.
ARPU.
47,2%
25,9%
8,2%3,1% 3,1%
15,0%
30,0%
18,1%
6,2%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q12011 Q22011* Q32011*
AMOU ARPU
2.13: AMOU, ARPU
:
*CosmoteVodafone
26
&
2.5.
2
.90
20106.
. ,
. 2010
334 . , 27%
2009, 0,6%.
52007,
33,7%.
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
.(4)
2.14:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
EBITDA,
,
(.9.1).
27
&
, ,
.
15
. , ,
.
28
&
3.
3.1.
(CapitalAssetPricingModel CAPM)
.
23,3%.
(countryriskpremium).
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
09
09
09
09
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
Countryriskpremium()
3.1:countryriskpremium
:Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Moodys
0,78 1,24
(:Damodaran)0,78.
29
&
18,8%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
01
01
02
02
03
03
04
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
09
09
10
10
11
11
Riskfreerate
Riskpremium
Countryriskpremium()
beta
3.2:
:Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Eurostat,Moodys
18,8%,
(10%20012010).
,
,
(,),.
30
&
18,8%
7,1%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
01
01
02
02
03
03
04
05
05
06
06
07
08
08
09
09
10
10
11
3.3:
:Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Eurostat,Moodys
7,1% 7,1% 7,4% 7,6% 7,6%9,9% 10,3%
18,8%
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%
3.4:
:Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Eurostat,Moodys
,
.
31
&
3.2.
.
,.
724.181751.973
693.269 643.294
16,5% 17,0% 17,7%19,8%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
2007 2008 2009 2010
.
.
%
3.5:
:
,
.
33.496
58.687
77.740
118.435
0,76%1,33%
1,98%
3,64%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
2007 2008 2009 2010
.
.
%
3.6:
:
32
&
.
:
,
.
.
.
, 45 ,
.
, ,
.
,
,
.
()
.,170.
2010 ( Vodafone 31/3/2011)
.
33
&
146.547 153.994 150.181
170.083
3,3% 3,5% 3,8%5,2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
2007 2008 2009 2010
.
(+)
%
3.7:(+)
:,()
.,
.
118 . 2010
26,4%,
31.2010.
34
&
4.
4.1.
4.1.1.
58%Q12010.(Cosmote,
Vodafone,Wind)Q120116,5Tbytes.
4.1:
:
3G.
3G 119%
58%.
/2
(Q42010Q12011)
3G.
35
&
4.1.2.
SMS.
SMS(
SMS : 90%). ,
,
.
13,7%
27,5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
%
%
4.2:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
,.,
10%SMS
20%.
36
&
400
450
500
550
600
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
. (4)
4.3:
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
31,3%
27,9% 28,9% 28,6%
18,9% 18,7% 19,1%17,3%
23,5% 22,3%
18,6% 18,2%19,6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111
SMS
4.4:SMS
:BarclaysCapital
37
&
4.2. -
4.2.1.
3 (3G) 4 (4G).
,
,
internet (desktop,notebooks,netbooksandtablets).
3G (3G data cards)
.
2010
3G
( 2010 1,37 ., 2011 2,78 .) 24,6%
.3G
140%12010
3G20%1.
1 2011, '12 '
38
&
180 206 225 226 242 308 289
1.037
1.072
1.149
1.142
1.038
2.378
2.497
10,9% 11,4%12,2% 12,2% 11,3%
23,8% 24,6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
09 09 10 10 10 10 11
3G
3G
3G
4.5:3G&
(20092011)
:,12,
2011
3G24.7%26,2%
,3G2,6%
7,2%.
3G
201083,7%95,9%(UMTSHSDPA
).,HSPA+83.7%
45,9%.
39
&
4.6:(3Ginternet),
:CommunicationsCommittee
smartphones
.
tablet PCs ( tablets 10,3
20104420152)
3G . tablet pc
2 Forrester 2011, ' Tablets Will Grow As Fast As MP3 Players '
40
&
3G
/.
,
.
4.7:
:
internet
. internet ,
, ,
,.
Economist10% (
) 1,2% 1,4%
3.
3 The Economist 2009, A Special Report on Telecoms in Emerging Markets
41
&
4.2.2.
,, .
.
.
smartphones()
(, , ..)
(networkAPIs,HTML5.0,NFC..)
.
.
MobileSocialNetworkingandMicroblogging
[:]
tabletpc.
.
Facebook, 250
4. ,
Facebook.comScore
1Twitter
Twitter ( TweetDeck, Tweetie ..)5.
,
.
.
4 FaceBook,http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics 5comScore,http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/3/Facebook_and_Twitter_Access_via_Mobile_Browser_Grows_by_TripleDigits
42
&
.
(LocationBasedSocialNetworks)
. (, ,
..)
( Foursquare
Brightkite).
MobilePayments
[:23]
,
618 20166.
,
APIs (..Google PayPal)
,
NFC(..GoogleNexusS).O
.
,
.SIM
.NFC
overthenetwork.
.(..DeutscheTelekom),
(.. Google, Ericsson) (.. Visa, Paypal)
mpayment.
6Edgar,Dunn&Co.2011,AdvancedPaymentsReport2011
43
&
MobileCloudComputing
[:34]
(MobileCloudComputing),
.
,
,
.
.
.
.
,,
.
(GoogleMaps),
(GmailGoogleCalendar).
M2M(MachinetoMachine)
[:34]
2
.2020
. 7.
,
.4
: , ,
.
(smart meters)
7DavidClark(SeniorResearchScientist,MIT)Economist,TelecomsAworldofconnections,2007.
44
&
.
2
( )
(
).
.
.
.
4.3.
, 80%
,1624
100%.,
65.
7%
46%.
98%162442%
65.
45
&
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1624
6574
, 2008
4.8:2008
:Eurostat,ICTusageinhouseholdsandbyindividuals,2008Survey
, (87%
272008),
. 2008, 30%
,6%
Internet.video
,.
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
em
ail
(..
,
.
(
/
all
1624
6574
5564
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
em
ail
(..,
.
..)
(
)
/
..27,2008
1624
5564
6574
4.9:..
27,2008
:Eurostat,ICTusageinhouseholdsandbyindividuals,2008Survey
46
&
Eurostat,
. , 5%
,
2714%.
31
28 27 26
21 20 20 19 19
17 16 16
15 14 13 13 13
10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7
5 5 4 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
% ,2010
4.10:,2010
:EUROSTAT.
47
&
5.
5.1.
5.1.1.
(),
.
()
.
.
20103.645.(1,6%)2009
319 . ,
.
1,9%1,8%
1,7%1,6%
1,4%
8,9% 8,1%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
1,6%
1,8%
2,0%
2007 2008 2009 2010
5.1:
:,,
48
&
,
.
.
().
.
.
,
. ,
.
,
, 1
.
4.301 .
(2,18).
3,5%.
5.1.2.
63.2010.,
2008,
.
:
6. 14,5 22.() 20,5.
49
&
10%
23%
35%
32%
5.2:
:,
5.1.3.
2010 1.862 . 2011
1.791..
,
. 2009 2010
.,
20092010(1,1%20093,2%2010)
.
.
, (51%
40% ),
.
50
&
40% 40% 38% 40%43% 45% 48%
51%
4,5%
1,1% 3,2%10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
2007 2008 2009 2010
%
%
5.3:
:,,
7.1.
,(,,
, /, )
(,
,).
.
5.2.
5.2.1.
,
,
,,
.,,
, 59% ,
51
&
97%.
42%89%.
42%
44%
48%
49%
53%
53%
54%
64%
70%
76%
86%
89%
59%
64%
67%
70%
70%
75%
75%
76%
80%
81%
92%
97%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
,,
ICT
5.4:
:eBusinessWatch2010
.
...
(USPTO) (EPO),
,
.
.
,
, 5,3 ... 1,6
52
&
19992007.
,59
...1793.320105.809
.
....1999
2007
.1999
2007
723,3 318,3
450,7 ... 201,3
345,3 194,0
150,9 133,8
140,2 132,4
140,0 99,4
129,1 93,7
119,5 85,3
106,4 56,5
90,0 48,4
89,4 45,3
... 87,0 40,6
. 77,3 . 40,3
71,9 35,4
71,0 34,3
59,2 31,5
54,3 24,2
48,0 23,4
39,5 19,5
27,2 11,1
23,5 8,9
15,0 8,3
14,1 4,5
11,5 3,4
10,7 1,9
7,2 1,6
5,3 1,0
3,1 0,8
2,7 0,7
1,1 0,3
0,3 0,2
0,1 0,1
0,0 0,0
5.1:....
19992007
:OECDCommunicationsOutlook2011
53
&
5.2.2.
,
.
.
8:
100,6% . 83%9 (:
ForresterResearch)
10 ( ) 1,21% .
24,6%10 (
12 ,
2011)
50%
,
6,4%.
(1,9%)
8,3%.
8 World Bank: Qiang 2009 9 Forrester Research, Inc. 10 12 , 2011
54
&
8,3%
1,6%
1,9%
3,4%
1,5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
(2010)
5.5:2010
:,,
5.2.3.
,
,
.
.20032010
()73%.
55
&
0,066
0,096
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Q403 Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410
5.6:
: European TelecomsMatrix, Q1 2011, Merrill Lynch & Bank of
America
2010,
(0,066)(
28,3%).
0,068
0,112
0,1250,073
0,096
0,078
0,066
0,0820,123
0,105
0,082
0,1180,067
0,217.0,071
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25
200
9
.2
010
, 2010,
5.7:20092010
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill
Lynch&BankofAmerica
56
&
. ,
(18,1%2010).
9,3%
5,4%
10,8% 10,7%
16,3%
12,8%
22,8%
18,1%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
()
5.8:
: , European Telecoms
Matrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica
,
,
,.
5.3.
.
,
,
57
&
. Vodafone
.,CosmoteWind,o2010
Vodafone04/201003/2011.
()
,,,
,
,
.
, :
,,,.
5.3.1.
.,
,
.,
,,
.
,
.
(GSMA, , ETSI, ...., ... ..)
.
5.3.2.
. ,
,
,
58
&
.
,
,
,,
, ,
//,..
,
.
8.236
.
,
,.
/ 210
,,(freecooling)
,
.
/,
.
CO2(tn) 47.158(MWh) 40.638/() 2105.9:
:Cosmote,Vodafone(
),Wind
, ,
59
&
. 2010
120,8
, , , ,
,...
,712
, 10,2% ,
72.972 .
,
( ).
2010.
(tn) 664,7()(kg) 242.690()(kg) 72.972&() 1.910(tn) 120,85.10:
:Cosmote,Vodafone(
),Wind
,
,.
5.3.3.
.
60
&
, , ,
,
(.. ). ,
,
.
,
(8,9.2010),
.
25.
,
, . ,
.,
.
, ,
,
,
,.
61
&
(.) 8,9 25** 340.910
//
479
5.11:
:Cosmote,Vodafone(
),Wind
**2009,2010
5.3.4.
6.184(2010).
,
(51%).
,
251.0782010.
(%) 51% 251.0785.12:
:Cosmote,Vodafone(
),Wind
62
&
6. /
6.1.
. ,
,
.
.
6.000 50.000.
(
//, .)
.
()
.2010
3513102009.5.307.000
2010 35.000.
4.000.
201018.996.000.
,
.20101.200,
63
&
3431 (2006) .
7.2.
,
.
30.
2009 2010 ~900 ~1200() 3.061.000 5.307.000 310 351() 1.075.911 1.306.511()
>30 >30
6.1:.
:
6.2. : 3431/2006
.
.
3431 (2006)
.
2075/1992 1650/1986,
64
&
, .3010/2002.
,
. 1105/2000)
()
. ,
.2801/2000
.
3010/2002
..2075/1992
1650/1986,
,
.
2005,,(.2072/02.1650/86)
()
()
.
,
.
3431/2006 (
).
.
65
&
2006
.
.
. ,
.
,
.
2009.(2010)
().
2011 ,
OneStopShop.
. 4
.
4
,
.
. (
).
.
.
66
&
6.3. -
,
11.
:
11BaseStationPlanningPermissioninEurope,.2009(GSMAEurope)
67
&
6 6
,RF >12 16 10 6()
30
/
68
&
.
/
. 81%
.
2006 43%
.11%
,
,
.
6.1:
:SpecialEurobarometer347,2010
69
&
6.2:(2010)
2006.
:SpecialEurobarometer347,2010
GSMA(.2010)12
GSMA
.
:
1. /
2.
3. WHO(WorldHealthOrganization)/ITU(InternationalTelecommunications
Union)
4. :
a.
b.
12 Mobile Networks : Exposure Levels and Deployment Policies Regional Seminar on Non-Ionizing Radiation
70
&
c.
5. :
a.
b.
6. :
a.
b.
c.
7.
:
1.
2.
3. /
71
&
7.
7.1.
.
,
,
.
,,
.,
,
,,
.
(+ ) .
( ).T
, , .
,
().
, ,
(23%),
72
&
. ,
:
, 2009 12% 20% .
.
,25,8%27,6%
, ,
12045%
,38%.
(,
), (, )
().
,
(..
).
2010. 21,6%.
().
73
&
1862
853
375125
186
197110 16
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
.(.&)
.
(.&)
.
()
.()
2010
7.1:,2010
:,,
2011,1.734.(128.
), 23% ,
.
.
7.2.
7.2.1.
BankofAmerica MerrillLynch ( 2011)
().
2005 2010.
.
74
&
.
.
(
).
Stata.
:
.,
.
()14%.
.
.
.
.
(GDPC)
, .
.
BankofAmerica
MerrillLynch(2010).
75
&
,,
.
. ,
,
,
(novelty)
.
7.2.2.
,
20052010.
errillLynchBankofAmerica13.
.
.
(total minutes)
().controls,
.
( 2009 2010)
,
(20102010).
log(Minutes_of _Use) = a1 log(GDPC)+ a2 log(Price)+ 13yearfixedeffectsquarterfixedeffects.
76
&
.
Minutes_of_Uset
GDPCt .
Priceit (
)
.
1 (Income
elasticityofdemand)
2 (Priceelasticityofdemand)
7.1:
2006 2009.
.2010, ()
26,4%.
2009
40%.2012
2009
().
.
77
&
7.2:2009.
,.
:
7.3:2005
2011.
:MerillLynch&BankofAmerica,
, ( )
.
78
&
( )
2007(
12,11%)2009(14,70%).,
.
7.4:
20052010
:,MerillLynch&BankofAmerica,
.
. , fixed effects
,.
.72
20052010.
, 24 clusters ,
.
.
79
&
7.2:2010
2010.
2010.
(~ 4,2%) 1,645 1,714 2010.
( ~ 33,3%)1,2131,617(Appendix).
,.
,
.
,1,259.
80
&
,
.
7.3.
7.3.1.
,
.,
.
2012.
,
2010,201120112012.
:
20112012(6,1%20113%2012)
23% ( 2010 21,6%) 20112012
11,6% ( 4)
(..)
2012, ,
2.841.(3.295.)
()1.612..
81
&
,
10%
.
,
30%.
82.:
50., 19. 16..
1614 1612
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
.
(.&)
(.&)
()
()
7.5:
:,,
82
&
, 50%
0,5.,40%
1,8.
38,9
27,5
18,0
10,34,5
0,5
1,8 2,3 1,1 0,3 0,0
1,53,76,710,5
15,220,6
27,034,2
42,4
51,660
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
100
%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
.
7.6:
:,,
. 2,18 (
),
117.
83
&
117
30025020015010050050
100150200
100
%90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
.
7.7:
:,,
,
7,6.
0,3%.
15000
10000
5000
0
5000
10000
()
7.8:
:,,
84
&
1500
1000
500
0
500
1000
.
.()
7.9:
:,,
7.3.2.
,
23% 20%,
.
.
73 .
9 . .
,28..
85
&
9
28
73
13 4 821 17
1
37
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
23%20%
7.10: 23% 20%,
:,,
7.4. 2010
data only
3G
.2010
18% 20%
33%36%.
86
&
19,1% 18,9%21,1%
33,8%36,5% 36,2%
347 359379
447473 489
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q12011
dataonly
dataonly
7.11:3G
:
internet.
34%(Q12010Q12011)19%
3G 9,5
Exabytes14. 3G
2010(Q1Q213.8%,Q2Q310.2%,Q3Q43.8%)
12011.
141Exabyte=1024TeraByte,1TeraByte=1024Gigabyte,1GigaByte=1024Megabyte
87
&
5,4%
3,8%
10,2%
13,8%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011
()
7.12:
:
internet
internet.3G
().
3G
.
7.5.
50 mb
dataonly
2010(.).
50Mb(750.0006,8%
88
&
2010)
.
,
, . ,
(smartphones)
.
.:
6,8% 2010 9,7% 2012.
19,3%,
, , dataonly
20092010,
(291.379.).
6,8% 13,5%.
40,5%,
,, dataonly
20102011,(379.
489).
,
.,
5.
(,).
89
&
.
20102012
2012
(50Mb) 6,8% 9,7% 13,5% 3,8%
173 245 340 95
103 155 150 5
15 26 36 10
25 36 36 0
63 93 78 15
21 30 0 30
5 7 0 7
() 37 56 78 22
7.3:.
:,dataonly,
,
, ,
1,21% 10%
15.broadband,
165.,.
,
1,21%
.
15WorldBank:Qiang2009
90
&
.
20102012
2012
broadband() 0,41% 0,59% 0,81% 0,23% 950 1.351 1.875 523 364 558 724 165
82 143 199 55
139 197 274 76
143 218 251 33
21 30 0 30
5 7 0 7
() 118 181 251 70
7.4:.
:,dataonly,
,
.
165
307 22 10
4845
76
50
0
50
100
150
200
()
.
7.13:.
:
91
&
523..,,
:
,
,
,
smartphones ,
,
,,
mobileinternet,..logistics,smartmetering
/,,,.
,
.
92
&
8.
8.1.
. ,
.
,
,,
. ,
, ,
,
,
mobileinternetbroadband.
,Cisco,VisualNetworkingIndex2011,
, 0,24
exabytes6,3exabytes2015.
92%,.
93
&
0,240,6
1,2
2,2
3,8
6,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
20102015exabytes
8.1: 2010
2015
:CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex,2011
26 , (smartphone),
mobile internet laptops netbooks, tablets 2
. ,
, 50%, laptops netbooks,
smartphones26,6%.
Cisco, Visual Networking Index 2010, IP traffic
,
3G.Cisco
.
94
&
55,8%26,6%
5,8%
4,7%
3,5% 2,9%0,7%
2015
LaptopsNetbooks
Smartphones
HomeGateways
M2M
Tablets
(smartphones)
8.2:2015
:CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex,2011
smartphones
,.
2010,
smartphone, 80 .
Vodafone Group, smartphones 70%
2012/2013.
32 3237 38 37
41 41
54 54
62
80
11% 11% 12% 12% 13%14% 13%
16% 17%19% 19%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010
. smartphones
smartphones
8.3:smartphones
:Gartner2009,Booz&Company
95
&
,2015,videos66,4%
,20,9%.
66,40%
20,90%
6,10%
4,70%
1,50% 0,40%
2015
Video
Web/Data
P2P
M2M
Gaming
VoIP
8.4:2015
:CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex,2011
,
.
, ,
.
,
smartphone.
.
,CAGR20102015
,CAGR20102015
Smartphone 24% 116% 79% 130%Tablet 105% 190%Laptop&netbook 42% 85%M2M 53% 109%
8.1:
20102015
:CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex,2011
96
&
2015 .
50%1,8
32%. ,
cloud computing M2M 223 143
.
904
1898
628
223
143
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CloudComputing M2M
.$ ,2015
8.5:2015
:ABIResearch2010,ZTECorporation2010,Booz&Company
,NewStreetResearch
2018,
mobileinternet
broadband .
14% ,3% 2018,
(57%49%).
mobile internet broadband 11%
34%2018.
97
&
57% 49%
14%
3%
13%
11%
7%
17%
4% 17%
5% 3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2010 2018
2010 2018
( )
SMS
MobileBroadband MobileInternet
8.6:
20102018
:NewStreetResearch,2011
19%
6%
3%
3%
1,1%
10%
18%
30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20%
SMS
MobileBroadband
MobileInternet
2010 2018
( )
8.7:2010
2018
:NewStreetResearch
.
98
&
DeutscheTelecom,
20142009.
,
SMS, 1,7%,
19,5%.
83 69
159146
3952
25 6221
34117
139
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2014
.$ DeutscheTelecom2014
IT
ConsumerIPServices
.(.SMS)
502
3,6%
1,7%
+6%+19,5%
CAGR20092014
corebusiness
444+3,5%
8.8:DeutscheTelecom2014
:FixTransformInnovatefromtelcototelcoplus,DeutscheTelecom,2010
Vodafone Group
2010,,
. 138 .$
337.$ 2014. , Group
M2M(Machinetomachine)
.
8.2. 2
BankofAmericaMerrilLynch,
European TelecomsMatrix 2011,
99
&
.2013500.,
20118,8%.
2010201314%,
.
3.571
3.258
3.047 3.071
8,8%
6,5%
0,8%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
2.000
2.400
2.800
3.200
3.600
2010 2011 2012 2013
. ,
8.9:
20102013
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica
20102013.
145.801 145.581 145.687146.534
0,15%
0,07
%
0,58
%
5,0%
2,5%
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
139.000
141.000
143.000
145.000
147.000
2010 2011 2012 2013
. ,
8.10:,2010
2013
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica
100
&
,
2010 2013 2,5% .
,EBITDA
.
1.144 1.166
1.0931.115
1,9%
6,3%
2,0%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
2010 2011 2012 2013
. EBITDA,
8.11:EBITDA,20102013
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica
20102013.
50.14549.898 49.755
50.398
0,49%
0,29%
1,29
%
5,0%
2,5%
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
47.000
48.000
49.000
50.000
51.000
2010 2011 2012 2013
. EBITDA,
8.12:EBITDA,20102013
:EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica
101
&
8.3.
.:
,20112015.
:o 50% 2012
2013
o
,
().
(13%),
(. 4.1) SMS
SMS.
, ,
, (
7.2)
.
,
,
.
,
.
102
&
, , 2012 2013
( ),
2012 2015 (9,3%
).
, 2012 2013
2014 2015. ,
3,2.2015.
10,2%
5,4%
1,8%
0,1%0,8%
10,2%
4,3%5,4%
0,6%2,0%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.13:
20112015,
: , ,
. 16,9%
13,4%.
27%,
2015.
103
&
219
382357 354
56101
143187
4477 80 87
0
100
200
300
400
2012 2013 2014 2015
.
8.14:
20122015
: , ,
,,.
389
656 675714
105 120 132150
7
12 12 12
0
4
8
12
16
0
200
400
600
800
2012 2013 2014 2015
.
.
. .
.
8.15:
20122015
: , ,
104
&
,0,7.2015150.
.
1,5.,487.
12.
:
internet
,
,
.
105
&
1. Accenture & Vodafone, Carbon Connections
,,2010
2. BarclaysCapital,EuropeanTelecomservices,2011
3. BaseStationPlanningPermissioninEurope,.2009(GSMAEurope)
4. Booz&Company,Buildingcommunitiesarounddigitalhighways,2011
5. Cisco,CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex,2011
6. ComScore,FacebookandTwitterAccessviaMobileBrowserGrowsbyTripleDigits inthe
PastYear
7. Damodaran,Aswath,http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
8. DeutscheTelecom,FixTransformInnovatefromtelcototelcoplus,2010
9. Edgar,Dunn&Co.2011,AdvancedPaymentsReport2011
10. Eichengreen Barry, The Breakup of the Euro Area, in Europe and the Euro (2010),
UniversityofChicagoPres
11. Eurostat,ICTusageinhouseholdsandbyindividuals,2008
12. eBusinessWatch2010
13. FaceBookStatistics,http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
14. Forrester2011, TabletsWillGrowAsFastAsMP3Players
15. ,,15,2011
16. MerrillLynch,Europeannetneutrality,2011
17. MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica,EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011
18. MobileNetworks :Exposure LevelsandDeploymentPoliciesRegional SeminaronNon
IonizingRadiation
19. NewStreetResearch,EuropeanQ12011mobilereview,2011
20. OECD,OECDCommunicationsOutlook2011,2011
21. 2011,'12'
22. Reinhart CarmenM., and Kenneth S, Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of
FinancialFolly,PrincetonUniversityPress,pp.463
23. SpecialEurobarometer347,2010
24. TheEconomist2009,ASpecialReportonTelecomsinEmergingMarkets2009
25. TheEconomist,Aworldofconnections2007
106
&
26. VisionMobile,DeveloperEconomics2011
27. VodafoneGroup,StrategyUpdate,November2010
28. Qiang,InformationandCommunicationforDevelopment,WorldBank,2009
107
&
Minutes_of_Use
(20052010)
(2)ELSTAT (3)ELSTAT (4)
(20052010)Log(GDPC) 1.213**[0.569] 1.110*[0.661] 1.617***[0.384] 1.259***[0.209]Log(Price) 1.645***[0.276] 1.640***[0.278] 1.705***[0.256] 1.714***[0.265]Constant 1.021[4.904] 0.492[5.979] 5.663[4.134] 1.155[1.969] IMF/EUMemorandum NO NO NO YESPrepaidIdentification NO NO NO YESOperatorEffects YES YES YES YESYearEffects YES YES YES YESQuarterEffects YES YES YES YES Obs. 63 63 72 72Rsq 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96Clusters 3(21) 3(21) 3(24) 3(24)
GLSfixedeffectsestimationwithoperator,yearandquarterfixedeffects.
Standarderrorsreportedinbrackets.Asterisks*,**,***denotestatisticalsignificanceat10%,5%and1%respectively.
Top Related