9 ICAP Study on Greek Mobile Industry 2011

107
Ο κλάδος της κινητής τηλεφωνίας στο νέο περιβάλλον Δεκέμβριος 2011 ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΑΘΗΝΩΝ ΤΜΗΜΑ ΔΙΟΙΚΗΤΙΚΗΣ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΗΣ & ΤΕΧΝΟΛΟΓΙΑΣ

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ICAP Study on Greek Mobile Industry 2011

Transcript of 9 ICAP Study on Greek Mobile Industry 2011

  • 2011

    &

  • 2

    &

    .................................................................................................................................................... 3...................................................................................................................................... 41. .............................................................. 8

    1.1. ............................................................................................................................................... 81.2. ....................................................................................................................... 101.3. .................................................................................................................... 15

    2. ............................................................................................ 152.1. 2010 ......................................................................................................................... 152.2. 2010.......................................................................................................................... 182.3. 2010 ........................................................................................................................ 202.4. 2011(9)............................................................. 232.5. ........................................................................................................... 26

    3. .............................................................................................. 283.1. ..................................................................................... 283.2. ...................................................................................................................................... 31

    4. ....................................................................................................... 344.1. .......................................................................................................................................... 344.2. ....... 374.3. ...................................................................................... 44

    5. ....................... 475.1. .................................... 475.2. ........................................... 505.3. ........................................................................................... 56

    6. / .............................................. 626.1. .................................................................................................................... 626.2. :3431/2006 ..................................... 636.3. ............................................................................... 66

    7. ........................................................................... 717.1. ........................................................................................ 717.2. ................................................... 737.3. .......................................... 807.4. 2010dataonly

    ........................................................................................................................................ 857.5. 50mb

    ........................................................................................................................................... 878. ..................................................................................... 92

    8.1. ......................................................................................... 928.2. 2........................................................................... 988.3. ..................................................................... 101

    ...................................................................................................................................................105 .............................................................................................................................................107

  • 3

    &

    ICAPGROUP

    (&).

    COSMOTE .E., VODAFONE .... WIND

    ....2008.

    () 2009, 2010,

    2010 2011.

    .

    .

    ,

    ().

  • 4

    &

    20

    15 ,

    :

    16,1% 2010 9201113,2%

    , (EBITDA)18,9% 2010920117,8%

    2010,836.

    ,:

    (19,6% SMS).

    27%

    , , (13%SMS)

    2010

    6..

    92%

    5,4G.

    .

    ,

    .

    :

    12,5% 20072011

  • 5

    &

    18,8% ,7,1%10%

    ,

    50% (1.862.2010)

    , EBITDA ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    15

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    (1,1%20093,2%2010).2011

  • 6

    &

    6,8%.

    :

    30% 2.

    56..

    23%20% 9 .

    28..

    50Mb

    5 .

    ,

    165.

    15

    : 2010

    1,6% (3,6 . ) 8,3%

    .,

    :,2010,

    (0,066)(

    28,3%).

    .,:

    50%20122013

  • 7

    &

    :

    150 . , 487.

    714 . 1,5.

    12

    internet

    (Qiang2009) 10

    1,21%.

  • 8

    &

    1.

    1.1.

    4.

    20078

    .2009

    .

    ,

    2010,.

    0,4%

    0,2% 0,5%

    0,0%

    1,3%

    4,4%

    4,4% 3,5%

    0,8%

    0,4%

    0,7%

    4,6%

    8,6%

    8,3%

    7,4%

    5,0%

    2,4%

    1,7% 1,6%

    0,5%

    2,1%

    5,4% 5,7%

    4,1%

    1,8%

    1,2%

    2,4%

    2,0%

    1,8%2,5%

    1,6%

    1,2%

    10%

    8%

    6%

    4%

    2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    (17)

    1.1:

    :Eurostat.

    ,

    (18,4%2011).

    ,12,6%.

  • 9

    &

    8,3%

    6,6%

    18,4%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    07

    07

    07

    07

    08

    08

    08

    08

    09

    09

    09

    09

    10

    10

    10

    10

    11

    11

    11

    %

    %

    1.2:

    :

    2011

    .2011

    5,8%.2012,

    (2011)

    ,4,5%,

    2013,0,3%.

  • 10

    &

    5,5%

    6,1%

    6,0%

    5,8%

    5,3%

    6,2%

    2,8%

    3,0%

    3,0%

    2,8%

    6,6%

    7,5%

    6,1%

    0,5%

    1,5%

    1,0%

    2,0%

    10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4%

    ,11/11

    ,11/11

    12/11

    ,11/11

    J.P.Morgan11/11

    Economist,12/10

    Ernst&Young,OxfordEconomics12/12

    2011, 2012 2013

    2011

    2012

    2013

    1.3:201120122013

    :,,,,J.P.Morgan,Economist,OxfordEconomics

    1.2.

    80,

    ,

    .90,

    .19942002, ,,

    .

    20002004

    20082009,

    .

  • 11

    &

    10%

    13%15%

    10%12%12% 9%7% 7%6%

    4% 3%

    4% 4% 5%6%7%

    5% 6% 7%

    10%

    16%

    10%

    9%7%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    %

    %

    /%

    1.3:/%

    :

    *

    **

    100%1993

    2007.2008

    (160%2011).

  • 12

    &

    166%

    189%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    200%

    %

    1.4:%

    :

    *

    **

    2007,

    ,

    .LehmanBrothers

    2008

    . 2010, ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    20102011.

  • 13

    &

    16,0%

    21,3%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    07

    07

    07

    08

    08

    08

    09

    09

    09

    10

    10

    10

    11

    11

    11

    Spread10

    10

    1.5:

    :,,Eurostat

    2011,

    .

    2011, 21/7/2011,

    ,,

    .

    .

    ,26

    50%

    .

    . ,

    ,:

  • 14

    &

    .90%.

    .

    .

    ( , ) 160 .

    205,

    100.

    ,

    30.,70.

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,.,

    , (lenderof

    last resort) FederalReserve .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    ( , ,

    , ) ,

  • 15

    &

    . ,

    .

    1.3.

    :

    .

    , .

    .

    ( ) .

    , (

    )

    .

    . ,

    ,,

    .

    .

    2.

    2.1. 2010

    2003(3.158.

    20103.254.2003):

  • 16

    &

    ,

    ,27%201016,1%

    2010 3.571 . 38%18%

    30%

    10%

    10%

    30%

    50%

    70%

    0,0000,5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

    Q403 Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    .

    (4)

    2.1:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&

    BankofAmerica

    2008

    2009.

    .

    :

    ,

  • 17

    &

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    2.2:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&

    BankofAmerica

    .

    SMS

    .,

    ,

    .

  • 18

    &

    4,5%

    4,6%

    8,3%

    18,3%

    20%

    16%

    12%

    8%

    4%

    0%

    2010

    2.3:2010

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch

    2.2. 2010

    2.2.1. EBITDA

    ,(EBITDA)2010

    1.143.,2002.

    30%

    10%

    10%

    30%

    50%

    70%

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    1800

    2000

    Q403 Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    .

    EBITDA

    EBITDA(4)

    2.4:EBITDA

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&

    BankofAmerica

    2008,EBITDA35%,2010

    18,9%.

  • 19

    &

    EBITDA 16%

    EBITDA

    30%

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    EBITDA

    2.5:EBITDA

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&

    BankofAmerica

    2.2.2.

    836 . .

    .

    ,18,4%2009

    38,6%2010.

    (EBITDA)

    .

  • 20

    &

    718

    344

    836

    36,4%

    18,4%

    38,6%

    100%

    80%

    60%

    40%

    20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    1000

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    2008 2009 2010

    .

    (ROE)

    2.6:EBITDA

    :,ICAPDatabank

    ICAP,

    19 2011

    2,33 . 2010 (25.616 ).

    .,3836.

    35%().

    2.3. 2010

    2.3.1. (MOU)

    ,

    .,

    2010200910%,

    200630%.

  • 21

    &

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    0

    2.000.000

    4.000.000

    6.000.000

    8.000.000

    10.000.000

    12.000.000

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    2.7:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

    (MOU) 2 ,

    .2010

    , 2010 220,

    (175).

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    MOU

    MOU

    MOU

    2.8:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

  • 22

    &

    2.3.2. (ARPU)

    ,

    .

    2011, ARPU 33%

    , 2005

    .O 2005 , 2010

    9,4%,(4,2%).

    30%

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    ARPU

    ARPU

    ARPU

    2.9:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

    2.3.3.

    5 . (24%)

    2010.

    .,

    .

    , 2010

    ,.

  • 23

    &

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    .

    2.10:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

    2.4. 2011 ( 9 )

    2011

    .

    EBITDA. 2011,

    :

    3,3. 2,82,9. EBITDA11,1.

  • 24

    &

    21,2%

    12,5%

    5,9%

    13,2%

    21,3%

    5,9%

    6,1%7,8%

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 '92011

    EBITDA

    2.11:EBITDA

    :

    ,

    :

    20102011(30% )

    ,

    .

    2011,

    ,.

    2011 ( ),

    14,4.6,3..

    ,,

    .

  • 25

    &

    6,3%

    2,5%1,8%

    8%

    6%

    4%

    2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    Q12011 Q22011* Q32011*

    ()

    2.12:

    :

    *CosmoteVodafone

    AMOU

    .

    ARPU.

    47,2%

    25,9%

    8,2%3,1% 3,1%

    15,0%

    30,0%

    18,1%

    6,2%

    40%

    30%

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Q12011 Q22011* Q32011*

    AMOU ARPU

    2.13: AMOU, ARPU

    :

    *CosmoteVodafone

  • 26

    &

    2.5.

    2

    .90

    20106.

    . ,

    . 2010

    334 . , 27%

    2009, 0,6%.

    52007,

    33,7%.

    0

    2.000

    4.000

    6.000

    8.000

    10.000

    12.000

    14.000

    16.000

    18.000

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    .(4)

    2.14:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

    EBITDA,

    ,

    (.9.1).

  • 27

    &

    , ,

    .

    15

    . , ,

    .

  • 28

    &

    3.

    3.1.

    (CapitalAssetPricingModel CAPM)

    .

    23,3%.

    (countryriskpremium).

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    09

    09

    09

    09

    10

    10

    10

    10

    11

    11

    11

    Countryriskpremium()

    3.1:countryriskpremium

    :Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Moodys

    0,78 1,24

    (:Damodaran)0,78.

  • 29

    &

    18,8%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    01

    01

    02

    02

    03

    03

    04

    04

    05

    05

    06

    06

    07

    07

    08

    08

    09

    09

    10

    10

    11

    11

    Riskfreerate

    Riskpremium

    Countryriskpremium()

    beta

    3.2:

    :Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Eurostat,Moodys

    18,8%,

    (10%20012010).

    ,

    ,

    (,),.

  • 30

    &

    18,8%

    7,1%

    0%2%4%6%8%

    10%12%14%16%18%20%

    01

    01

    02

    02

    03

    03

    04

    05

    05

    06

    06

    07

    08

    08

    09

    09

    10

    10

    11

    3.3:

    :Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Eurostat,Moodys

    7,1% 7,1% 7,4% 7,6% 7,6%9,9% 10,3%

    18,8%

    0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%

    3.4:

    :Damodaran(http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/),Eurostat,Moodys

    ,

    .

  • 31

    &

    3.2.

    .

    ,.

    724.181751.973

    693.269 643.294

    16,5% 17,0% 17,7%19,8%

    0%

    4%

    8%

    12%

    16%

    20%

    24%

    28%

    32%

    0

    100.000

    200.000

    300.000

    400.000

    500.000

    600.000

    700.000

    800.000

    2007 2008 2009 2010

    .

    .

    %

    3.5:

    :

    ,

    .

    33.496

    58.687

    77.740

    118.435

    0,76%1,33%

    1,98%

    3,64%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    0

    20.000

    40.000

    60.000

    80.000

    100.000

    120.000

    140.000

    2007 2008 2009 2010

    .

    .

    %

    3.6:

    :

  • 32

    &

    .

    :

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    , 45 ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ()

    .,170.

    2010 ( Vodafone 31/3/2011)

    .

  • 33

    &

    146.547 153.994 150.181

    170.083

    3,3% 3,5% 3,8%5,2%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    0

    50.000

    100.000

    150.000

    200.000

    2007 2008 2009 2010

    .

    (+)

    %

    3.7:(+)

    :,()

    .,

    .

    118 . 2010

    26,4%,

    31.2010.

  • 34

    &

    4.

    4.1.

    4.1.1.

    58%Q12010.(Cosmote,

    Vodafone,Wind)Q120116,5Tbytes.

    4.1:

    :

    3G.

    3G 119%

    58%.

    /2

    (Q42010Q12011)

    3G.

  • 35

    &

    4.1.2.

    SMS.

    SMS(

    SMS : 90%). ,

    ,

    .

    13,7%

    27,5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    %

    %

    4.2:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

    ,.,

    10%SMS

    20%.

  • 36

    &

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    30%

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    Q404 Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410

    . (4)

    4.3:

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,Merrill

    Lynch&BankofAmerica

    31,3%

    27,9% 28,9% 28,6%

    18,9% 18,7% 19,1%17,3%

    23,5% 22,3%

    18,6% 18,2%19,6%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111

    SMS

    4.4:SMS

    :BarclaysCapital

  • 37

    &

    4.2. -

    4.2.1.

    3 (3G) 4 (4G).

    ,

    ,

    internet (desktop,notebooks,netbooksandtablets).

    3G (3G data cards)

    .

    2010

    3G

    ( 2010 1,37 ., 2011 2,78 .) 24,6%

    .3G

    140%12010

    3G20%1.

    1 2011, '12 '

  • 38

    &

    180 206 225 226 242 308 289

    1.037

    1.072

    1.149

    1.142

    1.038

    2.378

    2.497

    10,9% 11,4%12,2% 12,2% 11,3%

    23,8% 24,6%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    09 09 10 10 10 10 11

    3G

    3G

    3G

    4.5:3G&

    (20092011)

    :,12,

    2011

    3G24.7%26,2%

    ,3G2,6%

    7,2%.

    3G

    201083,7%95,9%(UMTSHSDPA

    ).,HSPA+83.7%

    45,9%.

  • 39

    &

    4.6:(3Ginternet),

    :CommunicationsCommittee

    smartphones

    .

    tablet PCs ( tablets 10,3

    20104420152)

    3G . tablet pc

    2 Forrester 2011, ' Tablets Will Grow As Fast As MP3 Players '

  • 40

    &

    3G

    /.

    ,

    .

    4.7:

    :

    internet

    . internet ,

    , ,

    ,.

    Economist10% (

    ) 1,2% 1,4%

    3.

    3 The Economist 2009, A Special Report on Telecoms in Emerging Markets

  • 41

    &

    4.2.2.

    ,, .

    .

    .

    smartphones()

    (, , ..)

    (networkAPIs,HTML5.0,NFC..)

    .

    .

    MobileSocialNetworkingandMicroblogging

    [:]

    tabletpc.

    .

    Facebook, 250

    4. ,

    Facebook.comScore

    1Twitter

    Twitter ( TweetDeck, Tweetie ..)5.

    ,

    .

    .

    4 FaceBook,http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics 5comScore,http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/3/Facebook_and_Twitter_Access_via_Mobile_Browser_Grows_by_TripleDigits

  • 42

    &

    .

    (LocationBasedSocialNetworks)

    . (, ,

    ..)

    ( Foursquare

    Brightkite).

    MobilePayments

    [:23]

    ,

    618 20166.

    ,

    APIs (..Google PayPal)

    ,

    NFC(..GoogleNexusS).O

    .

    ,

    .SIM

    .NFC

    overthenetwork.

    .(..DeutscheTelekom),

    (.. Google, Ericsson) (.. Visa, Paypal)

    mpayment.

    6Edgar,Dunn&Co.2011,AdvancedPaymentsReport2011

  • 43

    &

    MobileCloudComputing

    [:34]

    (MobileCloudComputing),

    .

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  • 84

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  • 87

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    8.5:2015

    :ABIResearch2010,ZTECorporation2010,Booz&Company

    ,NewStreetResearch

    2018,

    mobileinternet

    broadband .

    14% ,3% 2018,

    (57%49%).

    mobile internet broadband 11%

    34%2018.

  • 97

    &

    57% 49%

    14%

    3%

    13%

    11%

    7%

    17%

    4% 17%

    5% 3%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    2010 2018

    2010 2018

    ( )

    SMS

    MobileBroadband MobileInternet

    8.6:

    20102018

    :NewStreetResearch,2011

    19%

    6%

    3%

    3%

    1,1%

    10%

    18%

    30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20%

    SMS

    MobileBroadband

    MobileInternet

    2010 2018

    ( )

    8.7:2010

    2018

    :NewStreetResearch

    .

  • 98

    &

    DeutscheTelecom,

    20142009.

    ,

    SMS, 1,7%,

    19,5%.

    83 69

    159146

    3952

    25 6221

    34117

    139

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    2009 2014

    .$ DeutscheTelecom2014

    IT

    ConsumerIPServices

    .(.SMS)

    502

    3,6%

    1,7%

    +6%+19,5%

    CAGR20092014

    corebusiness

    444+3,5%

    8.8:DeutscheTelecom2014

    :FixTransformInnovatefromtelcototelcoplus,DeutscheTelecom,2010

    Vodafone Group

    2010,,

    . 138 .$

    337.$ 2014. , Group

    M2M(Machinetomachine)

    .

    8.2. 2

    BankofAmericaMerrilLynch,

    European TelecomsMatrix 2011,

  • 99

    &

    .2013500.,

    20118,8%.

    2010201314%,

    .

    3.571

    3.258

    3.047 3.071

    8,8%

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    2.000

    2.400

    2.800

    3.200

    3.600

    2010 2011 2012 2013

    . ,

    8.9:

    20102013

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica

    20102013.

    145.801 145.581 145.687146.534

    0,15%

    0,07

    %

    0,58

    %

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    0,0%

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    139.000

    141.000

    143.000

    145.000

    147.000

    2010 2011 2012 2013

    . ,

    8.10:,2010

    2013

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica

  • 100

    &

    ,

    2010 2013 2,5% .

    ,EBITDA

    .

    1.144 1.166

    1.0931.115

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    800

    900

    1.000

    1.100

    1.200

    2010 2011 2012 2013

    . EBITDA,

    8.11:EBITDA,20102013

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica

    20102013.

    50.14549.898 49.755

    50.398

    0,49%

    0,29%

    1,29

    %

    5,0%

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    0,0%

    2,5%

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    47.000

    48.000

    49.000

    50.000

    51.000

    2010 2011 2012 2013

    . EBITDA,

    8.12:EBITDA,20102013

    :EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011,MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica

  • 101

    &

    8.3.

    .:

    ,20112015.

    :o 50% 2012

    2013

    o

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    ,

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  • 102

    &

    , , 2012 2013

    ( ),

    2012 2015 (9,3%

    ).

    , 2012 2013

    2014 2015. ,

    3,2.2015.

    10,2%

    5,4%

    1,8%

    0,1%0,8%

    10,2%

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    12%

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    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    8.13:

    20112015,

    : , ,

    . 16,9%

    13,4%.

    27%,

    2015.

  • 103

    &

    219

    382357 354

    56101

    143187

    4477 80 87

    0

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    8.14:

    20122015

    : , ,

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    389

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    105 120 132150

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  • 104

    &

    ,0,7.2015150.

    .

    1,5.,487.

    12.

    :

    internet

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 105

    &

    1. Accenture & Vodafone, Carbon Connections

    ,,2010

    2. BarclaysCapital,EuropeanTelecomservices,2011

    3. BaseStationPlanningPermissioninEurope,.2009(GSMAEurope)

    4. Booz&Company,Buildingcommunitiesarounddigitalhighways,2011

    5. Cisco,CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex,2011

    6. ComScore,FacebookandTwitterAccessviaMobileBrowserGrowsbyTripleDigits inthe

    PastYear

    7. Damodaran,Aswath,http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

    8. DeutscheTelecom,FixTransformInnovatefromtelcototelcoplus,2010

    9. Edgar,Dunn&Co.2011,AdvancedPaymentsReport2011

    10. Eichengreen Barry, The Breakup of the Euro Area, in Europe and the Euro (2010),

    UniversityofChicagoPres

    11. Eurostat,ICTusageinhouseholdsandbyindividuals,2008

    12. eBusinessWatch2010

    13. FaceBookStatistics,http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

    14. Forrester2011, TabletsWillGrowAsFastAsMP3Players

    15. ,,15,2011

    16. MerrillLynch,Europeannetneutrality,2011

    17. MerrillLynch&BankofAmerica,EuropeanTelecomsMatrix,Q12011

    18. MobileNetworks :Exposure LevelsandDeploymentPoliciesRegional SeminaronNon

    IonizingRadiation

    19. NewStreetResearch,EuropeanQ12011mobilereview,2011

    20. OECD,OECDCommunicationsOutlook2011,2011

    21. 2011,'12'

    22. Reinhart CarmenM., and Kenneth S, Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of

    FinancialFolly,PrincetonUniversityPress,pp.463

    23. SpecialEurobarometer347,2010

    24. TheEconomist2009,ASpecialReportonTelecomsinEmergingMarkets2009

    25. TheEconomist,Aworldofconnections2007

  • 106

    &

    26. VisionMobile,DeveloperEconomics2011

    27. VodafoneGroup,StrategyUpdate,November2010

    28. Qiang,InformationandCommunicationforDevelopment,WorldBank,2009

  • 107

    &

    Minutes_of_Use

    (20052010)

    (2)ELSTAT (3)ELSTAT (4)

    (20052010)Log(GDPC) 1.213**[0.569] 1.110*[0.661] 1.617***[0.384] 1.259***[0.209]Log(Price) 1.645***[0.276] 1.640***[0.278] 1.705***[0.256] 1.714***[0.265]Constant 1.021[4.904] 0.492[5.979] 5.663[4.134] 1.155[1.969] IMF/EUMemorandum NO NO NO YESPrepaidIdentification NO NO NO YESOperatorEffects YES YES YES YESYearEffects YES YES YES YESQuarterEffects YES YES YES YES Obs. 63 63 72 72Rsq 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96Clusters 3(21) 3(21) 3(24) 3(24)

    GLSfixedeffectsestimationwithoperator,yearandquarterfixedeffects.

    Standarderrorsreportedinbrackets.Asterisks*,**,***denotestatisticalsignificanceat10%,5%and1%respectively.