Long Term Strategies to reduce car dependency

5th European Conference on

Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans14-15 MAY 2018 | NICOSIA, CYPRUS

Long Term Strategies to reduce car dependency

The Nicosia Tram – Findings of the Feasibility Study

Michael Lambrinos

Ministry of Transport, Communications and Works

NICOSIA

A divided city

Population 240.000(310.000 if occupied part is included)

14th May, 2018

Radial Road System

NICOSIA

Intense development and economic activity along the main arterials

14th May, 2018

Mobility in Nicosia

715.771 daily trips

Municipality Work PlacesInhabitants of

MunicipalityFrom other

Municipalities

Nicosia 52751 17519 35232

Strovolos 21989 10565 11424

Engomi 7404 2314 5090

Latsia 7053 2300 4753

Aglanja 6125 2383 3742

Lakatamia 4520 2938 1582

AyiosDometios 2486 1196 1290

Tseri 1205 632 573

Yeri 1144 667 477

584.439

812.681

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

2009 2020

Nicosia Integrated Mobility Master Plan

Conclusion 1: The existing transport development model is not sustainable

Nicosia Integrated Mobility Master

Plan

Total trips per day 2009

• 584.439

Total trips per day2020

• 812.681

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Conclusion 2: Nicosia needs investing in an effective and reliable mass transit system

715.771

942.707

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

2013 2030

Tram Feasibility Study

Tram Feasibility Study


• 715.771


• 942.707

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584.439

812.681715.771

942.707

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mobility Projections

IMMP vs Tram

201314th May, 2018

The Attractiveness of the Tram

The best valued travel mode

• “I’ll take the tram because I like it”.

It optimises urban space

• Capacity equal to 3 large buses or 174 cars

Environmentally friendly

• CO2 emissions per 200 people: Tram 0 gr, Bus 945 gr, Car 8248 gr.

Fully accessible

• Direct access at street level with no steps. Audioacoustic information systems inside the vehicle.

Fast and reliable

• The fastest mode for distances up to 7km. Real time information.

Safe

• Exceptional visibility. Can coexist with pedestrians. Three break systems.

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The Attractiveness of the Tram

Regeneration of depressed areas Increase in economic activity

Upgrade of the value of nearby properties Creation of new permanent jobs

An Excellent Tool for Urban Development

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Alternative Scenarios for the Core Network

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Scenario A

16.2 km

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Scenario B

14.2 km


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Scenario C 16.6 km


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Scenario B1

Core: 14.2km Extensions: 48.3km

Alternative Scenarios for the Extensions to the Core Network

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ScenarioB2

Core: 14.2km Extensions: 31.1km

Alternative Scenarios for the Extensions to the Core Network

Multi-criteria Assessment Strategy

Cluster 6:

Economic

Impact

Cluster 5:

Energy

Impact

Cluster 4:

Environme

ntal

Impact

Cluster 3:

Social -

Socioecono

mic Impact

Cluster 2:

City

Impact

Cluster 1:

Traffic

Impact

Clusters of

assessment

criteria

1614th May, 2018

Tram Infrastructure Length 14.2 km

Tram Lines Headway 10 min

Daily tram service kilometers 3106

Daily tram services 216

Average Speed of Tram (km/h) 23.0

Fleet Number 16

Construction Cost (m€) 216.5

Annual Operating Cost (m€) 11.3

% of Catenary Free Network 18.9% (2.7km)

Depot Area (1000m2) 40

Key Figures of Preferred Scenario

Non-Signalised Crossings 93

Singalised Crossings 36

Pedestrian Signalised Crossings 14

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Cost Estimate

Description Sub Totals (€)

Tram Corridor – Civil Works 39,155,650.00€

Tram Corridor – E/M Works 27,609,615.00€

Tram Depot 30,926,306.00€

Tram Vehicle 36,000,000.00€

Tram Control Center 5,000,000.00€

Structures 372,000.00€

Major Utility Diversions 836,620.00€

Urban Design Works 30,000,000.00€

Project cost according to the preliminary design 169,900,191.00€

Contractors general expenses and profit (18% Χ Project cost) 30,582,034.38€

Subtotal with Contractors general expenses and profit 200,482,225.38€

Unforeseen Expenses 9% 16,038,578.03€

Total with Unforeseen Expenses 216,520,803.41€

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Summary

• 14,2km tramway

• 17 stops

• 10 min headway/ 18 hours

• 16 vehicles

• Light & Heavy Maintenance Depot

• TCC with 7 operators & emergency incident area

216,520,803.41 €

• Corridor: 66.8 M€

• Depot: 30.9 M€

• Vehicles: 36 M€

• TCC: 5 M€

• Other Civil: 1.2 M€

• Urban design: 30 M€

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Public Transport Performance Indices

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Pu

bli

c T

ran

sp

ort

Sh

are

2014

Buses only

2030

without

Tram

2030

with

Tram

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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

PT Daily Service-Kilometers

2030 without Tram

2030 with Tram -9%

0 500 1000 1500 2000

PT Daily Service-Hours

-17%

0 25000 50000 75000 100000 125000

PT Daily Boardings

40%

2030 without Tram

2030 with Tram

2030 without Tram

2030 with Tram

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0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000

Bus Daily Boardings

2030 without Tram

2030 with Tram +36%

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Bus Daily Service - Hours

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Bus Daily Service - Km

2030 without Tram

2030 with Tram

-20%

-17%

2030 without Tram

2030 with Tram

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Comparative Analysis – PT Daily Boardings (2030)

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Daily Boardings Without Tram With tram

Tram - 53,043

Bus 83,148 112,678

Intercity Light Rail 9,539 12,708

Park-&-Ride - 2,753

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Savings in Average Trip Time with tram vs without Tram

Public Transport Users Car Users

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Key Findings – Transport Indices

Achievement of a Seamless/ Integrated Public Transport System

Improved Accessibility and Mobility for Citizens

Savings on Emissions from all Transport operations (9.5% reduction)

In-line with EU Priorities towards a Competitive and Resource Efficient Transport System (EU White Paper, 2011)

More Effective Use of Bus Network

Improvements of Level of Service on Road Traffic

Opportunities for improving urban aesthetic

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Economic/ Financial IndicesOperating cost

1.293.693

8.100.000

586.672

56.411

175.000102.275

1.021.178Annual Maintenance Cost

Annual Personel Cost

Annual Energy Cost

Annual Water Supply Cost

Annual Cleaning Cost

Insurance Cost

Other Annual Administrativecost

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Economic/ Financial Indices

Passenger traffic

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

Passengers (m.- left hand axis) Market share (right hand axis)

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Projected Operating Costs and revenues

Έσοδα από πωλήσεις εισιτηρίων και διαφημίσεις (€)Ετήσιο λειτουργικό κόστος (€)

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046



Socioeconomic benefits

7.324.460

9.814.168

7.895.342

Nicosia, Bus km

2014 Current 2030 without Tram

2030 With Tram

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Socioeconomic benefits

1.757.784.886

1.916.670.086

1.841.068.187

Nicosia, Private car km

2014

Current

2030

without

Tram

2030

With Tram

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Economic/ Financial IndicesSelected Socioeconomic benefits

2030-with Tram minus 2030-without

Tram

Social Cost per unit €

Total benefit to the society

m€

Private car km -75.601.899 0,20 15,1

Bus km -1.918.826 2,29 4,4

Trip hours for all Modes (Cars & PT) -588.592 7,35 4,3

TOTAL 23,8

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The Project is feasible and Extremely Beneficial

Economic cost of implementation €186,7m

Economic operational costs €283,4m

Cost of inconvenience during construction

€73,4m

Revenues €578,7m

Socio-economic benefits €1.198,2m

Net Present value at 6%discount rate

€308,2m

Internal Rate of Return14,1%

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Economic/ Financial IndicesViability and profitability conditions –tradeoff grant – availability payment

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

An

nu

al

ava

ila

bil

ity m

€

Initial Grant m€

7.2% iso-return

9,3% iso-return

12,3% iso-return

Base case: Grant m€ 86.6

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Base case

Construction period: 3 YearsConcession period 30 operation yearsGrants: 40% of initial investment cost (m€ 86.6)Bank loan: Amount: 20% of initial investment cost (m€ 43.3)

Duration: 25 operation yearsInterest rate: 4%Grace period: 4 years - only interest paid

Amortisation 25 equal annual paymentsEquity: 40% of initial investment cost (m€ 86.6)

plus interest during grace period (m€ 4.3)Investment, grant and loan disburs:

1st year 30%2nd year 30%3rd year 40%

Target return on equity 8%Annual availability payment 4.2m€


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Initial Grant vs Annual Availability Payments Αρχική ΧορηγίαΠληρωμές Διαθεσιμότητας

0,00€ 9,40 €

10,00 € 8,80 €

20,00 € 8,20 €

30,00 € 7,60 €

40,00 € 7,00 €

50,00 € 6,40 €

60,00 € 5,80 €

70,00 € 5,20 €

80,00 € 4,60 €

86,61 € 4,20 €

90,00 € 4,00 €

100,00 € 3,40 €

120,00 € 2,19 €

All options require the establishment of a well organized, regulatory Transport Authority, with different role according to each option.

Procurement and Implementation Strategies

Option A: Full Public

Option B: Public –Private

Option C: Private –

Public

Option D: Full Private

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Qualitative Summary of the Proposed Procurement & Implementation Strategy Risks

Strategy Project Risk Public Funding Public Subsidy

Option A: Public

Option B: Public –PrivateOption C: Private –Public

Option D: Private

LowModerateConsiderableHigh

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Επιλογές Χρηματοδότησης

1 • State Budget

2 • EU Structural Funds

3 • CEF

4 • European Fund for Strategic Investments (Juncker Plan)

5 • Green Fund (fuel tarrifs, urban tolls))

6 • Bundle state land investment into the project

7 • Project bonds

8 • Capture land property value appreciation

9 • Revenues from parking management

14th May, 2018

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Michael lambrinosMinistry of Transport, Communications and Works, Cyprus

Tel: +357-22806630, +357-99477796Email: [email protected]

Long Term Strategies to reduce car dependency

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