Summary

Demand CharacteristicsDemand CharacteristicsAnnual RidershipCornell Enrollments, and Faculty & Staff statsRouteRoute Description20132012% ChangeYearUndergradsGradsTotal EnrollmentStaffFacultyTotal Staff-Faculty10CU-Commons479,132440,58838,5448.0%2011-201214,1586,96421,4248,0811,5649,64581CU Weekday567,562548,82118,7413.3%2012-201314,3935,02321,5938,1031,6289,73182CU Weekday404,614394,39310,2212.5%2013-2014*21,7129,81883CU Weekday55,24151,8943,3476.1%* = Projected90Commons-CU Night56,87144,63112,24021.5%Percent Using TCAT92CU Night129,039116,01913,02010.1%UndergradGradFacultyStaff93CU Night58,10846,25811,85020.4%15%38%14%Academic Year's Monthly Ridership (2013)Assigned 0.5 weight to *RouteRoute DescriptionJanuary*FebruaryMarchAprilMay*August*SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember*AVERAGE10CU-Commons34,73849,33144,14551,58135,58732,55650,86953,34444,34430,53145,04081CU Weekday45,38166,60755,99168,92952,08030,46552,72158,76151,81134,60154,51082CU Weekday31,76048,17140,79242,49925,81425,30440,68946,08840,16526,77439,15483CU Weekday4,2158,1936,3998,3362,3921,2225,7107,7716,6534,3506,14490Commons-CU Night2,5695,5416,0737,9245,0612,9626,4877,2236,8364,0375,92592CU Night8,35116,81115,77718,8478,9054,52415,59114,76315,5639,90714,14993CU Night3,5136,3606,0297,0485,1333,8016,4076,5016,0913,8655,824Academic Year's Daily Ridership (2013), Weekday OnlyRouteRoute DescriptionAverage DailyAM RidershipPM Ridership10CU-Commons2,11781CU Weekday2,38811191269NOTE: Use September Data provided by TCAT for route 81 and 8282CU Weekday1,937865107283CU Weekday29090Commons-CU Night23592CU Night37993CU Night1947:30AM to 9:30 AM4:00PM to 6:00PM

Route MLS and LFRoute 8100Route 8110Peak-Hour Factor (peak)Route 81 Daily AverageRoute 82 Daily AverageStop No.Stop NameNext StopDistance to Next StopStop No.Stop NameNext StopDistance to Next StopRoutePeak AMPeak PM81008110Total Average82008210Total Average1A-LotTennis Court1B-LotVet School81009%18%HourB Lot A LotHourHasbrouck Apts.Uris HallBoyce-Thompson InstituteEast Hill Office Building AcrossEast Hill PlazaEast Hill Office Building LoopVet SchoolUris Hall2Tennis CourtJessup @Triphammer2Vet SchoolDairy Bar Across Street811021%7%425.725.761.11.13Jessup @TriphammerRisley Hall3Dairy Bar Across StreetBradfield Hall820010%5%51.318.119.4741.45.21.47.818.81.40.276.34Risley HallGoldwin Smith Hall4Bradfield HallKennedy Hall821010%6%63.032.035.08102.256.15.05.388.53.51.1261.85Goldwin Smith HallUris Hall5Kennedy HallUris Hall Across Street724.4140.6165.0997.737.62.10.08.170.96.42.2225.16Uris HallCorson/Mudd6Uris Hall Across StreetRockefeller HallParameters854.3273.7328.01035.441.51.38.532.411.59.5140.17Corson/MuddBradfield Hall7Rockefeller HallBalch @ Thurston40-ft Bus Capacity (Cv)66
CIT Lab User: CIT Lab User:still a dummy variablepassengers935.7180.0215.61150.631.73.05.329.020.920.1160.68Bradfield HallDairy Bar8Balch @ ThurstonJessup @Triphammer1065.494.6160.01250.929.43.51.14.223.918.522.7154.39Dairy BarBTI9Jessup @TriphammerRPCC1196.173.9170.01353.034.02.31.122.022.131.6166.210BTIB-Lot10RPCCJessup @Pleasant Grove12109.164.1173.21449.734.02.73.624.223.435.2172.711Jessup @Pleasant GroveA-Lot1373.389.7163.01531.525.73.01.914.817.738.7133.314119.173.5192.61647.146.94.40.00.817.328.257.9202.6Route 8200Route 821015120.552.4172.91720.845.76.90.513.730.546.1164.2Stop No.Stop NameNext StopDistance to Next StopStop No.Stop NameNext StopDistance to Next Stop16200.692.2292.9184.412.51.20.77.023.329.879.01Hasbrouck Apts.Appel Commons1East Hill PlazaEast Hill Office Bldg17115.748.9164.5Total Average585.9400.236.91.247.8362.6207.4295.21937.12Appel CommonsBalch @Credit Farm2East Hill Office BldgCiser1877.132.8110.03Balch @Credit FarmGoldwin Smith Hall3CiserMaple HillTotal Average1095.81292.12387.94Goldwin Smith HallUris Hall4Maple HillMaplewood Park Apts5Uris HallCorson/Mudd5Maplewood Park AptsDryden @ Humphrey's6Corson/MuddBradfield6Dryden @ Humphrey'sVet School7BradfieldDairy Bar7Vet SchoolDairy Bar Across Street8Dairy BarBTI8Dairy Bar Across StreetBradfield Hall9BTIDryden Rd. @ Humphrey's Crosswalk9Bradfield HallKennedy Hall10Dryden Rd. @ Humphrey's CrosswalkFairview Apts10Kennedy HallUris Hall Across Street11Fairview AptsMaplewood Park Apts11Uris Hall Across StreetRockefeller HallMaplewood Park AptsMaple Hill12Rockefeller HallBalch @ Credit Farm12Maple HillCiser13Balch @ Credit FarmHelen Newman13CiserEast Hill Office Bldg14Helen NewmanA-Lot*14East Hill Office BldgEast Hill Plaza15A-Lot*Hasbrouck Apt.NOTE:A-Lot* for PM services onlyO-D Ridership Pattern Route 8100From\To12345678910Total12345678910TotalRoute 8110From\To1234567891011Total1234567891011TotalRoute 8200From\To1234567891011121314Total1234567891011121314TotalRoute 8200From\To123456789101112131415Total123456789101112131415Total

still lack:

1. P_j 2. alpha_j3. the sume of (P_j)(l_j)4. L (the route length = sum of all l_j)5. If all 1-4 become available, calculate LF_average

On-time Performace

We need to ask TCAT what their on-time criteria are.

Some criteria we may consider for now:1. The adherence to arrival and departure time for each timepoint2. Average schedule deviation (minutes?)3. Actual speed vs. scheduled speed (For the scheduled speed, we need to approximate the route length and how long the entire route takes.. For the actual, the data is in the document in dropbox)

etc.

Full Buses_Feedbacks

Need to ask TCAT for these...

Econ. Performace

Economic Implications Day-by-Day Farebox Information Revenue Miles and Revenue Hours TCATs Cost Allocation for Cornell routes/ Cornells Subsidy

Capital Cost Est.

Alternative_Soln

Daily AverageRouteJanuary# WeekdaysDaily AvgRouteAugust# WeekdaysDaily AvgRouteJan*FebMarAprMay*Aug*SepOctNovDec*Avg10347382215791032556221480101579246721022345161814802422231922171454211781453812220638130465221385812063333026663133161213852511255525911648251782317602214448225304221150821444240919421932117311501938200420081275184483421522192831222225683192410305379109562723383332072909021412297902398221099097240245312205109247270278163235924815222199226932212292219475429516239122380394407279379932597221189328872213193118226202233178131187212211134194

RouteFebruary# WeekdaysDaily AvgRouteSeptember# WeekdaysDaily Avg1049331202467105086921242281666072033308152721212511824817120240982406892119388381932041083571021272904796202409051852124792950020475927980213809345222022693392221187RouteMarch# WeekdaysDaily AvgRouteOctober# WeekdaysDaily Avg1044145212102105334423231981559912126668158761232555824079221194282460882320048363992130583777123338905148212459062122327092901421429929072233949342432120293487123212

RouteApril# WeekdaysDaily AvgRouteNovember# WeekdaysDaily Avg10515812223451044344202217816892922313381518112025918242499221932824016520200883833622379836653203339068642231290556320278921134622516928144204079351222223393422520211RouteMay# WeekdaysDaily AvgRouteDecember# WeekdaysDaily Avg1035587221618103053121145481354712216128134601211648822581422117382267742112758323922210983435021207904514222059034242116392526422239925857212799339242217893281921134

Enrollment Growth EstimatesDouble Exponential Smoothing3-Period Moving AverageYearTotal EnrollmentPredictedUpdated EUpdated TError^2WeightConstraintYearTotal Enrollment3-Period AvgPredictionError^2199919,02119,0210.0alpha1.001199919,021200018,99519,02119,0210.0676beta1.001200018,995200119,42019,02118,995(26)159,201200119,42019,145200219,57518,96919,420425367,236200219,57519,33019,145184,613200319,62019,84519,57515550,625200319,62019,53819,33084,100200419,51819,73019,6204544,944200419,51819,57119,538413200519,44719,66519,518(102)47,524200519,44719,52819,57115,376200619,63919,41619,447(71)49,729200619,63919,53519,52812,247200719,80019,37619,639192179,776200719,80019,62919,53570,402200820,27319,83119,800161195,364200820,27319,90419,629415,165200920,63319,96120,273473451,584200920,63320,23519,904531,441201020,93920,74620,63336037,249201020,93920,61520,235495,147201121,13120,99320,93930619,044201121,13120,90120,615266,256201221,42421,24521,13119232,041201221,42421,16520,901273,529201321,59321,32321,42429372,900201321,59321,38321,165183,469MSE121,992MSE211,0132-period WMASingle Exp SmoothingYearTotal EnrollmentWMAPredictionError^2YearTotal EnrollmentDeltapredictionerr^2199919,021199919,021200018,99518,995200018,995(26)200119,42019,42018,995180,625200119,42042518,976.67196,539200219,57519,57519,42024,025200219,57515519,719.5720,901200319,62019,62019,5752,025200319,6204519,684.264,129200419,51819,51819,62010,404200419,518(102)19,651.7217,881200519,44719,44719,5185,041200519,447(71)19,446.101200619,63919,63919,44736,864200619,63919219,396.9558,586200719,80019,80019,63925,921200719,80016119,774.34659200820,27320,27319,800223,729200820,27347319,913.48129,251200920,63320,63320,273129,600200920,63336020,606.41707201020,93920,93920,63393,636201020,93930620,886.752,730201121,13121,13120,93936,864201121,13119221,154.69561201221,42421,42421,13185,849201221,42429321,266.3424,858201321,59321,59321,42428,561201321,59316921,630.531,408MSE67,934MSE35,247WeightWeightalpha0.0alpha0.70beta1.001.00201421,712.12