Strategic foresight: Long-term projections from

IFPRI, GFSF and AgMIP

Keith Wiebe, IFPRI and GFSF

ISPC, Rome, 16 September 2015

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects

General

circulation models (GCMs)

Global

gridded crop models

(GGCMs)

Global

economic models

Δ Temp Δ Precip

…

Δ Yield (biophys)

Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade

Climate Biophysical Economic

Socioeconomic and climate drivers

Shared

Socioeconomic

Pathways (SSPs)

Representative

Concentration

Pathways (RCPs)

Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.

CO2 eq. (ppm) Radiative forcing (W/m2)

Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)

AgMIP Global Economics results

Groups participating in this study:

• International Food Policy Research Institute – IMPACT

• LEI Wageningen UR – MAGNET

• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – MAgPIE

• Purdue University/Global Trade Analysis Project & Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN – ENVISAGE

• USDA Economic Research Service – FARM

Projections to 2050 w/o climate change Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)

Source: Wiebe et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)

Climate change impacts in 2050 Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)

Source: Wiebe et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)

Per

cen

t ch

ange

in 2

05

0

Climate change impacts and trade Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change)

SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5

Source: Wiebe et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)

IMPACT baseline results

• Yields – climate effects by commodity and region

• Prices – comparing socioeconomic and climate effects

• Total demand – comparing commodities

• Per-capita food demand – by commodity and region

• Net trade – by region

• Food security – by region

Yield effects of climate change, by region (SSP2)

Cereals

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;

Yield effects of climate change, by region (SSP2)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals Maize

Rice Wheat

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;

Yield effects of climate change, by region (SSP2)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals Roots & tubers

Oilseeds Pulses

Fruits & veg

Sugar

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;

Price effects of socioeconomic and climate drivers

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat

SSP

s R

CPs

Total global demand: aggregated commodities (SSP2, NoCC)

20

10

= 1

.00

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Total global demand: maize, rice, wheat (SSP2, NoCC)

20

10

= 1

.00

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Per-capita food demand (SSP2, NoCC)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals

Meat

Roots & tubers

Pulses

Oilseeds

Fruits & veg

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;

Net trade (SSP2, RCP8.5)

DVG = Developing Countries; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals

Net trade (SSP2, RCP8.5)

DVG = Developing Countries; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals

Maize

Rice

Wheat

Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

Malnourished children (SSP2, RCP8.5)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

To conclude

• Baseline scenarios • Differences by commodity and region

• Differences by socioeconomic and biophysical drivers

• Some drivers external to the CGIAR, others internal

• How to reflect the latter?

• Institutional considerations & managing expectations

• Alternative scenarios? • What scenarios?

• What indicators?

• What process?

Thank you

k.wiebe@cgiar.org