Cosmic Rays and

Space Weather

Erwin O. FlückigerLaurent Desorgher, Rolf Bütikofer, Benoît Pirard

Physikalisches InstitutUniversity of Bern

erwin.flueckiger@space.unibe.ch

The Cosmic Ray

-Space Weather

System87% p12% α& …..

Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays

ACE, GOES…

Neutron Monitors

Muon Telescopes

AMS, BESS, PAMELA, …

AUGER, …

Special Detectors

Flux: ~35 orders of magnitude / Energy: ~ 14 orders of magnitude

Main Space Weather Domain at present

Worldwide Neutron Monitor Network

Detector Response (Parameterized Yield Function)

Neutron Monitors

neutrons & protons

p

Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays1991-2001

Modulation Parameter Phi (Heliospheric Potential)

0200

400600

80010001200

14001600

18002000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Ph

i [M

V]

GCR Spectrum

1.00E-11

1.00E-10

1.00E-09

1.00E-08

1.00E-07

1.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

0.1 1 10 100 1000

Kinetic Energy [GeV]

Pro

ton

s /

(cm

2 s

sr

MeV

)

Phi=400

Phi=450

Phi=500

Phi=550

Phi=600

Phi=650

Phi=700

Phi=750

Phi=800

Phi=850

Phi=900

Phi=950

Phi=1000

Geomagnetic Shielding

ofGalactic

Cosmic Rays

Earth

Latitude Dependence of Cosmic Ray Intensity

(sea level)

Solar Maximum

Solar Minimum

Solar Cosmic Rays

Solar Flare

Sun

Earth

Electromagnetic Radiation

& Neutrons

ChargedParticles

• In the January 20, 2005 GLE, the earliest neutron monitor onset preceded the earliest Proton Alert issued by the Space Environment Center by 14 minutes

• Neutron Monitors can provide the earliest alert of a Solar Energetic Particle Event

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Solar Energetic Particle Event Alert

• GLE Alert Study: a GLE Alert is issued when 3 stations of Spaceship Earth (plus South Pole) record a 4% increase in 3-min averaged data

• With 3 stations, false alarm rate is near zero• GLE Alert precedes SEC Proton Alert by ~ 10-30 min

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Solar Cosmic Ray Events Forecasting Intensity / Time Profile

Dorman et al., 2005

September 29, 1989 GLE: forecasting of total neutron intensity (time t is in minutes after 11.40 UT)circles – observed total neutron intensity curves – forecasting

Solar Cosmic Rays

Evaluation of Radiation Doses

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventNeutron Monitor Observations

PLANETOCOSMICS: - Cascade in the Atmosphere- Secondary Spectra

From NM Data, outside of the Magnetosphere:- Apparent Source Direction- Pitch Angle Distribution- Rigidity Spectrum

Spectrum at the top of the Atmospherefor specified arrival directions

PLANETOCOSMICS: - Asymptotic Directions(MAGNETOCOSMICS) - Cutoff Rigidities

Method

Secondary Spectra → DosagePelliccioni et al., Overview of Fluence to Effective Dose and Fluence to Ambient Dose Conversion Coefficients for High Energy Radiation Calculated Using the FLUKA Code, Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2000;88:4:279-297

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude

Apatity NM

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude

Apatity NM

Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude

http://www.euradnews.org/

…………

For normal aircraft altitudes and for higher latitudes, for instance for Europe to US west coast or Japan routes, initial estimates indicate that the additional doses should not exceed 40 µSv/flight.

Final estimates will be produced after analysis of satellite and ground monitor data, and any in−flight measurements results.……….

Notification of Ground Level Event:December 13th, 2006Assessment of doses by the EURADOS Working Group `Aircraft Crew Dosimetry`

30th ICRC; Paper 715, Shea & Smart

GLEs during Solar Cycles 19-23

Distribution of GLEs for 5 solar cycles.

CMEsInterplanetary ShocksGeomagnetic Storms

Warning of Approaching Disturbance

CME / Interplanetary Shock – Geomagnetic Storm

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab

Directional Viewing of Ground Based CR Detectors

Neutron Monitors

neutrons & protons

p

muons

Muon Telescopes

p p p

Interplanetary Space

Bending of Particle Trajectories in the Earth‘s Magnetic Field

Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Magnetopause

Directional Viewing

Example: Five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald

(~ 54°N,   ~ 13°E) (GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)

Sun IMF

90°180°

30°S

60°S

Directional Viewing

Example: 24-hour rotation of five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald

(GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)

Sun IMF

Loss-cone PrecursorsNagashima et al. [1992], Ruffolo [1999]

Intensity deficit confined in a cone

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Muon Diagnostics

Loss Cones appear as a “Predecrease” when viewed by a single detector

Event on December 14, 2006 observed by muon detector in São Martinho, BrazilAs detector viewing directions rotate through loss cone, a predecrease is seen first from

the East, then from Vertical, and finally from West

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Muon Diagnostices

ICRC 2007, Paper 298, Timashkov et al.

URAGAN muon hodoscope

Muon Diagnostices

Loss Cones Can Be Seen in a “Bubble Plot” in Large Events

• In this bubble plot, each circle represents a directional channel in a muon telescope

• Circle is plotted at time of observation (abscissa) and pitch angle of asymptotic viewing direction (ordinate)

• Solid circles indicate a deficit intensity relative to omnidirectional average, and open circles indicate excess intensity; scale is indicated at right of plot

• Loss cone is evidenced by large solid circles concentrated near 0O pitch angle

• Figure adapted from Munakata et al., J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27457-27468, 2000.

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Muon Network Loss Cone Display

and Bidirectional Streaming Display Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Display

and Bidirectional Streaming Display

Spaceship Earth

11-station network of neutron monitors strategically located to provide precise, real-time, 3-dimensional measurements of the cosmic ray angular distribution. Participating institutions include the University of Delaware, IZMIRAN (Moscow Region, Russia), Polar Geophysical Institute (Apatity, Russia), Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Australian Antarctic Division (Hobart), and the University of Tasmania (Hobart).

http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather/

CMEsInterplanetary ShocksGeomagnetic Storms

“Geo-effectiveness”

Predictions limited

The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

The 14 December 2006 Forbush Decrease

Modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity

~5% Decrease at mid-latitude

Jungfraujoch Neutron Monitor

GLE

Space Weather Networks

e.g. - Spaceship Earth- Aragats Space –Environmental Center (ASEC) in Armenia- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center

- MuSTAnG – Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald

- Space Environmental Viewing and Analysis Network (SEVAN)

- FP-7 Program NMDB (Real Time Neutron Monitor Data Base) Kick-off meeting January 2008

Summary and Conclusions• Galactic and solar cosmic rays play a significant role in all space

weather scenarios

• Solar cosmic ray particle events:- Forecasting of occurrence not possible at present stage- New analysis techniques allow limited alert and prognosis of

characterstics of ongoing events- Quantitative modelling (e.g. of radiation dosis at aircraft

altitude) needs expertise in a broad field of topics

• Solar/geomagnetic storms:- Inner heliosphere screening: Warning of approaching

disturbances possible with neutron monitor and muontelescope data

• New Hybrid Particle Detectors measuring multiple secondary particle fluxes have a large potential

• Global detector networks operating in real time are essential for space weather applications!