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Transport Congestion in the South East of England

Jim Steer, Director Steer Davies Gleave

EEESTA Prestige SeminarUniversity of Hertfordshire14th November 2007

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Outline

Ι Paint a picture of the wider South East, the recent trends, a snapshot of today and how it will change

Ι Take note of the committed policy and investment responses (many of them, very recent)

Ι Focus on the rail network and the several distinct tasks it has to fulfil

Ι Identify the gaps: what more do we need to contemplate?

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Latest ONS Population Projections (October 2007)

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Population Change 1994 - 2004

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Population Changes 1981 – 2003 by Region

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National Economy: Business Services

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Real Unemployment Rate

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Population and Employment Levels (2001 Census)

Ι East of England■ Population: 5,362,339■ Employment: 2,577,523

Ι Greater London ■ Population: 7,140,206■ Employment: 3,331,203

Ι South East England■ Population: 7,944,783■ Employment: 3,880,341

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Population Growth 2001 – 2026 (2001 Census/TEMPRO)

Ι East of England■ 2001: 5,362,339■ 2006: 5,603,045■ 2016: 5,944,795■ 2026: 6,362,866

Ι Greater London ■ 2001: 7,140,206■ 2006: 7,168,736■ 2016: 7,697,670■ 2026: 8,029,270

Ι South East England■ 2001: 7,944,783■ 2006: 8,218,983■ 2016: 8,629,771■ 2026: 9,123,940

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East of England New Housing Allocations to 2021 Source: Regional Spatial Strategy

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Employment in R&D across the Regions

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Employment in Private Sector Services and per Capita GVA

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

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Total GVA per Head of Population

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Commuting Mode Choice by Destination and Length of Trip, 2002-2005

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Commuting Trip trends by Length, Time and Household Car Ownership, 1996-2004

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Commuting Trends in the South East

Ι Cambridge Econometrics and WSP’s work of 2005 showed that:

■ Car commuting trips are likely to stabilise and then shorten in the face of growing road congestion

■ Rail commuting trip lengths are likely to rise■ ‘Reverse’ commuting to areas such as the

Thames Valley will grow dramatically (based on population/employment imbalances).

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Forecast all Rail Crowding in London and the South East during the Morning Peak 2026 (inward flows and load-factor – all services)

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Transport Needs Where Central London’s Workers Live

Source: Transport 2025 and Regional Trends 2006

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TfL’s 2025 Strategy Document

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Map of Rail 2025 Solutions

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Committed Policy and Investment Responses

Ι A set of London plans designed to sustain the recently-won status of world pre-eminence in financial services

Ι A programme of Sustainable Growth locations for the wider South East

Ι The creation of a regional express rail network for London and the wider South East through Crossrail and Thameslink

Ι A programme of investment planned for rail through the ‘HLOS’ process over the next 7 years, targetted on capacity increases

Ι A motorway widening programme and the prospect of road user charging (ten years hence)

Ι Substantial efforts to influence behaviour: ‘smarter choices’

Ι Various ‘reforms’: regional plans (regional assemblies disbanded; planning reform; business rate levies to help fund infrastructure).

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Thameslink and Crossrail

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But here’s the problem…

Ι Department for Transport policy (PSA targets) driven by the need to support economic efficiency

Ι The wider South East faces the challenge of substantial growth but without the agency needed to address itΙ Nationally we have an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions

– and transport is the big growth sector for carbon emissions smarter travel choices alone insufficient in the face

of growthΙ Carbon efficient ways of travelling oblige us to examine

solutions more widely than those in hand (which have a central London focus)

we are yet to fashion a contemporary model for sustainable development suitable for application in

the wider South East as it expands.

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The Overall Environmental Balance

CO² emissions (MTC)

Road traffic Rail

Year 2000 30.3 0.7

Source: Steer Davies Gleave (for Transport 2000, July 2006)

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The Challenges for the Rail Network in the South East

Ι London commutingΙ Providing metro-type services within LondonΙ Being the lynch-pin of the national freight networkΙ Intercity servicesΙ Links to the South East’s airports (from London and

elsewhere)Ι European high-speed services (and domestic high-speed

services in future?)

and

Ι Provide the network that supports sustainable expansion of the wider South East.

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The Nature of the Solutions we need to Consider (Rail)

Ι Capacity expansion (more of the same: longer trains, new signalling systems)

Ι Network modernisation: grade separation of junctions and provision of user-friendly interchanges

Ι Provision of ‘missing links:■ Croxley link■ East West Rail■ Heathrow, Stansted

Ι Segregation of traffics to create more efficient network utilisation:

■ A set of cross London freight priority routes and new freight terminals

■ Creation of a high-speed network to free up existing main lines.

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Cross London Freight Priority Route

Ι Key growth markets unitised (container) flows Shellhaven, Haven Ports; Aggregates; Waste transfer; logistics/distribution (potentially)

Ι Across inner north London, new eastern Thames crossing and linked to ‘traditional’ (gauge enhanced) routes to channel tunnel

Ι Connects the GWML, WCML, MML, ECML, GEML and SEMLΙ Addresses 90% of London rail freight movementsΙ Relieve existing routes to allow genuine ‘metro’ 3 minute

headway services on existing linesΙ Remove a huge constraint on rail freight growth: 6 hours of

non-operability.

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Domestic High Speed Lines

Ι HS1 adds capacity to the Kent network twice overΙ HS2 can provide:

■ Similar relief to the main rail corridors on the north side of London

■ Create the wider east-west cross-regional links to complement Crossrail:

Fast direct links Heathrow – St Pancras and Stratford A network of services centred on Heathrow to serve the northern

home counties, complementary to Airtrack

Ι HS3 can provide a resolution to the challenge of the ‘M11 corridor’:

■ New fast line to support longer distance services and fast commuter services (Javelin style):

Stansted under 30 minutes Cambridge-Peterborough growth areas Canary Wharf/Stratford Relief for the ECML and the WAML.

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Conclusions

Ι We don’t have the agency needed to address the wider planning challenge in the South East

Ι Smarter travel choices alone are insufficient in the face of the level of growth forecast

Ι We are yet to fashion a contemporary model for sustainable development suitable for application in the wider South East as it expands

But

Ι There is an unprecedented investment programme in-hand which will ‘untie’ London

Ι A strategic approach points towards a next generation of rail infrastructure schemes that can address the wide set of challenges that the wider South East faces.

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Thank you