Fracking* in the face of Global Climate Change
Catherine Gautier Pete Peterson
University of California, Santa Barbara
*production of unconventional fossil fuels
Is Peak Oil delayed by Shale Oil?
Put together by crudeoilpeak.info
Shale oil
Shale oil
Carbon Budget
• Carbon Budget till 2100 for >66% chance– ΔT= 2°C ~ 1,000 Gt of CO2 – ΔT= 1.5°C ~ 600 Gt of CO2
• Carbon content of reserves >> 1000 Gt CO2 • Current emissions ~ 36 Gt/y < 2 decades to use up carbon budget
Source : IPCC, AR5, WG1, 2014
CO2budget and 2°C objective: Facts and uncertainties
Figure SPM.5(b), from the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers.
2014 Warmest Temperature
www.arctic.noaa.govToday the world is 0.85°C warmer than pre-industrial levels
Maximum Temperature (T) History and Predictions for RC
Tmax
RCP4.5HISTORICAL RCP6
Pal and Eltahir, 2015
Ice Mass Loss from the Two Polar Ice Sheets
How fast these two polar ice sheet melt determine how quickly sea level rises. Much uncertainty in timing of major melt such as WAIS
Recent results show fast retreat of the grounding line of important glaciers. There is no hill in the marine based topography left to anchor these glaciers. They have passed the point of no return.Adapted from Wouters et al., 2013
Sea Level Rise from Satellite AltimetryA clear signal of human-caused change
From TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1 and Jason 2‑ ‑
Emissions and Temperature associated with different representative pathways
IPCC AR5
INDC for major emitting countries
The $2 trillion stranded assets danger zone:
http://www.carbontracker.org/report/stranded-assets-danger-zone/
2015 2035
Projected Oil and Gas Production
OIL GAS
Tight oil
Tar Sands
IEA
2015 2035 2015 2035
Other Canadian
Canadian
Other US
US
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production
Trill
ion
Cubi
c Fe
et
North American Crude Production
Mill
ion
b/da
y
All Oils don’t affect climate the same way
Light Ultra-Deep Heavy High Steam Extra Heavy
Conventional High Gas Depleted/Watery Oil High Flare
Calculations will be made available online at CarnegieEndowment.org
CO2 emissions from Reserves and Resources with budget for 2°C
McGlade and Ekins, 2015
Methane Emissionsg C of CO2 MJ-1 of energy
Natural gas 15Coal 25
Methane leaks from frackingmeasured from space (Sciamachy)
Impact of a significant gas leakAliso Canyon, CA
https://www.edf.org/media/state-confirms-enormity-natural-gas-mega-leak-southern-california
“California Has a Huge Gas Leak, and Crews Can’t Stop It Yet - Wired Dec. 15th”
“The Worst Gas Leak in California’s History Isn’t Close to Being Fixed”“Infrared Camera Reveals Huge Cloud of Methane over California’s Aliso Canyon”“Gas Co. Vows to Shut Down Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Well After Leak Is Fixed”
Over 700 households have at least temporarily relocated.The site at Aliso Canyon has a capacity of 86 billion cubic feet.
Solutions:Leave Fossil Fuels in the ground
• Leave all unconventional oil and gas in the ground because existing reserves and resources are incompatible with 2ºC climate policies due:– Quantity available – High carbon content – Probability of methane leaks increases with
number of wells• Invest in Renewables
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