Fracking* in the face of Global Climate Change

Catherine Gautier Pete Peterson

University of California, Santa Barbara

*production of unconventional fossil fuels

Is Peak Oil delayed by Shale Oil?

Put together by crudeoilpeak.info

Shale oil

Shale oil

Carbon Budget

• Carbon Budget till 2100 for >66% chance– ΔT= 2°C ~ 1,000 Gt of CO2 – ΔT= 1.5°C ~ 600 Gt of CO2

• Carbon content of reserves >> 1000 Gt CO2 • Current emissions ~ 36 Gt/y < 2 decades to use up carbon budget

Source : IPCC, AR5, WG1, 2014

CO2budget and 2°C objective: Facts and uncertainties

Figure SPM.5(b), from the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers.

2014 Warmest Temperature

www.arctic.noaa.govToday the world is 0.85°C warmer than pre-industrial levels

Maximum Temperature (T) History and Predictions for RC

Tmax

RCP4.5HISTORICAL RCP6

Pal and Eltahir, 2015

Ice Mass Loss from the Two Polar Ice Sheets

How fast these two polar ice sheet melt determine how quickly sea level rises. Much uncertainty in timing of major melt such as WAIS

Recent results show fast retreat of the grounding line of important glaciers. There is no hill in the marine based topography left to anchor these glaciers. They have passed the point of no return.Adapted from Wouters et al., 2013

Sea Level Rise from Satellite AltimetryA clear signal of human-caused change

From TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1 and Jason 2‑ ‑

Emissions and Temperature associated with different representative pathways

IPCC AR5

INDC for major emitting countries

The $2 trillion stranded assets danger zone:

http://www.carbontracker.org/report/stranded-assets-danger-zone/

2015 2035

Projected Oil and Gas Production

OIL GAS

Tight oil

Tar Sands

IEA

2015 2035 2015 2035

Other Canadian

Canadian

Other US

US

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production

Trill

ion

Cubi

c Fe

et

North American Crude Production

Mill

ion

b/da

y

All Oils don’t affect climate the same way

Light Ultra-Deep Heavy High Steam Extra Heavy

Conventional High Gas Depleted/Watery Oil High Flare

Calculations will be made available online at CarnegieEndowment.org

CO2 emissions from Reserves and Resources with budget for 2°C

McGlade and Ekins, 2015

Methane Emissionsg C of CO2 MJ-1 of energy

Natural gas 15Coal 25

Methane leaks from frackingmeasured from space (Sciamachy)

Impact of a significant gas leakAliso Canyon, CA

https://www.edf.org/media/state-confirms-enormity-natural-gas-mega-leak-southern-california

“California Has a Huge Gas Leak, and Crews Can’t Stop It Yet - Wired Dec. 15th”

“The Worst Gas Leak in California’s History Isn’t Close to Being Fixed”“Infrared Camera Reveals Huge Cloud of Methane over California’s Aliso Canyon”“Gas Co. Vows to Shut Down Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Well After Leak Is Fixed”

Over 700 households have at least temporarily relocated.The site at Aliso Canyon has a capacity of 86 billion cubic feet.

Solutions:Leave Fossil Fuels in the ground

• Leave all unconventional oil and gas in the ground because existing reserves and resources are incompatible with 2ºC climate policies due:– Quantity available – High carbon content – Probability of methane leaks increases with

number of wells• Invest in Renewables