ttbar τ + jets:Update on QCD Estimation

William EdsonSUNY at Albany

Only MET and Dijet Mass Fit Selection

New Results for Fit: Signal Fraction:

0.664442±0.0418289 Chi2: 29.953 Meas. Used: 31 σ: 170.884±10.7578

New Corrected Results: Signal Fraction:

0.685204± 0.0418289 σ: 176.223 ± 10.7578 Correction Systematic:

±3.87838

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Unc (absolute)

Unc (%)

Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944

- -

JER0.665639 0.686278642 177.0805214 0.857127064 0.48638665

JRE0.665257 0.685935659 176.9995242 0.776129838 0.440423839

JES up0.635769 0.659459578 157.136386 19.0870084 -10.83114332

JES down0.696354 0.713856396 200.4752163 -24.251822 13.76197641

JVF up0.663283 0.684163285 175.0608676 1.162526811 -0.659689263

JVF down0.66522 0.685902439 177.2338911 -1.01049674 0.573418043

BSF up0.660732 0.681872845 171.6705412 4.552853193 -2.583569117

BSF down0.668005 0.688402977 181.0230963 -4.79970194 2.723646289

MET up0.655391 0.677077378 171.3473195 4.876074841 -2.766984973

MET down0.680586 0.699698948 182.4723177 -6.24892331 3.546023692

Tau trig up0.687623 0.706017185 180.283724 -4.06032962 2.304080928

Tau trig down 0.63363 0.657539057 170.9790784 5.244315964 -2.97594765

TES up0.672766 0.692677686 179.4065931 3.183198717 1.806342869

TES down0.660488 0.681653767 181.4403267 5.216932352 2.960408504

Tau Eveto SF up 0.664739 0.685470568 176.2631482 -0.03975386 0.022558786

Tau Eveto SF down 0.66414 0.68493275 176.1822674 0.041127005 -0.023337994

Nominal tes_up tes_down

No cut 14980835 14980835 14980835

GRL 11582501 11582501 11582501

Trigger 2148161 2148161 2148161

ntrack > 4 2146272 2146272 2146272

Electron/muon overlap

2146215 2146215 2146215

Event cleaning 2129461 2129567 2129462

Lepton veto 936511 936557 936511

ntaus > 0 263227 380669 258603

njets ≥ 4 156093.09 241761.07909 153199.70067

MET > 60 GeV 121403.40 186241.12378 119256.12293

MT < 80 GeV 64807.29 106553.52284 64096.69956

nbjets > 1 54693.36 89938.70251 54106.97931

Trigger match 21465.810 21510.530608 20785.628509

Truth match 18115.247 18085.581142 17573.842642

Cutflows

Systematics Contd.

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Unc (absolute)

Unc (%)

Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944

- -

Wnorm Up0.649942 0.672184941 165.5530307 10.67036362 6.055021045

Wnorm Down 0.677927 0.697311539 186.9328833 -10.7094889 -6.077223147QCD

Bin/Range 0.698455 0.715742799 184.0775058 7.85411139 4.4569062HiISR

0.663261 0.684143532 130.6296872LowISR

0.665379 0.686045198 111.2287908 9.700448219 5.504631354

Top Mass

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Unc (absolute)

Unc (%)

Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944

- -

167.50.688765 0.707042541 183.2008124 6.977418055 3.959416444

170.00.694873 0.712526666 170.8047351 -5.41865928 -3.074880778

175.00.688475 0.706782161 152.8903987 -23.3329957 -13.24057783

177.50.664239 0.685021638 141.9999232 -34.2234711 -19.42050387

167.50.681423 0.700450456 182.3662705 6.142876088 3.485845969

170.00.691478 0.709478433 170.5162042 -5.70719014 -3.238610945

175.00.692164 0.710094365 153.283518 -22.9398764 -13.01749774

177.50.671284 0.691347059 142.6328525 -33.5905419 -19.06134086

167.50.674567 0.703001275 182.6873234 6.463928991 3.668031146

170.00.694873 0.711924203 170.747795 -5.47559937 -3.107192089

175.00.688475 0.71296123 153.625443 -22.5979514 -12.82346847

177.50.664239 0.694294731 142.9328366 -33.2905577 -18.8911114

Ori

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σ(F

E)

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TopM

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Ref

σ’s

Usi

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σ(F

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from

105200

𝑠𝑓=(𝜎 (𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑟𝑒𝑓 . ) {=177.31 }𝜎 (𝑟𝑒𝑓 )𝑖 )∗𝑘𝑓𝑎𝑐 𝑖∗𝜎 (𝐹𝐸 )𝑖∗( 𝐿𝑢𝑚𝑖

𝑁 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙)

MC Generator

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Unc (absolute)

Unc (%)

Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944

- -

AlpHerwig (baseline) 0.693962 0.711708716 94.57787867 67.16727631 38.11484653MC@NLO (105200) 0.688417 0.706730085 173.1737388 11.42858384 6.485281865

SYST_AtF_105860 0.719017 0.734204586 153.0222872 3.35549941 1.904116886

SYST_AtF_117050 0.665279 0.685955412 149.6667878 - -

SYST_Full_117050 0.695474 0.71306628 161.745155 - -

1.1) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and MC@NLO+fHerwig sample 105200 (MC@NLO(105200)) 1.2) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and the fullsim mc11c ALPGEN+HERWIG samples (AlpHerwig(baseline)) 1.3) AtlFast2 mc11b POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_AtF_117050) POWHEG+fHerwig sample 105860 (SYST_AtF_105860)

QCD Template: Divided Control Region

Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction

σ Unc (absolute)

Unc (%)

Nominal0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944

- -

> 0.580.674445 0.694185193 178.533237

< 0.580.659889 0.68111595 175.1720384 3.361199 1.907351

QCD Template: Correlation Plots

Oddity?

MET

Dije

t Mass

Oddity?

MET

Dije

t Mass

Back-up

for (unsigned int tfj = (tau_matched.size() - 1); tfj > 0; tfj--){ try { int REFN1 = tau_matched.at(tfj).entry(); int REFN2 = tau_matched.at(tfj-1).entry(); if( (physics->tau_BDTJetScore->at(REFN1)) > (physics->tau_BDTJetScore->at(REFN2))) { save = tau_matched.at(tfj); tau_matched.at(tfj) = tau_matched.at(tfj-1); tau_matched.at(tfj-1) = save; } } catch (const std::out_of_range& C12_2){ std::cerr << endl << "C12.2: OUT OF RANGE ERROR: " << C12_2.what() << endl; EMERXIT = 12; continue; }}

QCD Bin/RangeSample Fraction Cor.

Fractionσ Unc

(absolute)

Unc (%)

Nominal 0.664442 0.685203904 176.2233944 - -

Range+1 0.67702 0.696497181 179.127843 -2.90444868 -1.648162943Range+2 0.666251 0.686828132 176.6411196 -0.41772521 -0.237042993Range+3 0.66633 0.686899063 176.6593619 -0.43596749 -0.247394787Range-1 0.682355 0.701287261 180.3597745 -4.13638013 -2.347236667Range-2 0.666977 0.687479978 176.8087639 -0.58536949 -0.332174675Range-3 0.677023 0.696499874 179.1285358 -2.90514143 -1.648556049Bins+1 0.698455 0.715742799 184.0775058 -7.85411139 -4.4569062Bins+2 0.648599 0.670979116 172.5650083 3.658386109 2.075993441Bins-1 0.646316 0.668929303 172.0378293 4.18556502 2.375147202Bins-2 0.668709 0.68903507 177.2087086 -0.98531424 -0.559127944Range increases/decreases in steps of 20GeV

Bin amount increases/decreases in steps of 5

Linearity Test to All Values

Y(0): -0.186462 ± 0.0013857 Slope: 1.23971 ± 0.00246245 Chi2: 32.7364 NDF: 8998

Linearity Test to Means

Slope: 1.23772 ± 0.0351884 y-intercept: -0.184483 ± 0.0198016Chi2: 0.00520053 NDF: 7

Mean Values of Ensemble Fits

Input Fraction

Previous Gaussian

Mean Output Fraction

Unc. Gaussian Mean

Output Fraction

Unc.

0.1 -0.0899462 0.00362867 -0.0998291 0.00487524

0.2 0.0538521 0.00207006 0.0501427 0.00241776

0.3 0.174326 0.00183766 0.204145 0.00187353

0.4 0.298044 0.00158434 0.335251 0.00170598

0.5 0.419200 0.00143606 0.460622 0.00147548

0.6 0.536226 0.00135077 0.580640 0.00134429

0.7 0.651246 0.00124441 0.689419 0.00114811

0.8 0.762769 0.00124064 0.794341 0.00116489

0.9 0.875338 0.00137805 0.894616 0.00111430

0.626089 0.566095 0.00132265

0.664442 0.651099 0.00120115

Adjust Range for Linear Fit?

Range Fit to Means Fit to All Values

Corrected σ

Y(0) Slope Y(0) Slope

0.1 – 0.9 -0.184483

1.23770 -0.18646

92

1.23971 176.524

0.2 – 0.9 -0.156549

1.19581 -0.15581

5

1.19374 176.719

0.3 – 0.9 -0.124079

1.14942 -0.12331 1.1473 176.586

0.4 – 0.9 -0.099726

5

1.11622 -0.09871

07

1.11376 176.223

MC Tau PlotsMC Tau Count MC Tau Children

pdgIDMC Tau Children Count

Leptonic pdgID values: e → 11, μ → 13, τ → 15

MT Signal vs Control vs MC Backgrounds

Samples Normalized to Own Integrals

Samples Normalized to Sum of Integrals

Fits/Hists for Ensemble Tests

Cutflow C0: GRL C1: Trigger C2: Primary vertex with ntracks > 4 C3: Electron/muon overlap C4: Jet cleaning C5: Lepton Veto C6: tau n ≥ 1 C7: njets >= 4 with eta < 2.5 and |jvf| > 0.75 C8: MET > 60GeV C9: MT < 80GeV C10: >= 1 bjet

C11: Trigger matched tau n ≥ 1 and pT >= 40GeV C12: MC tau object match

Chi-squared minimization

Equation:

N(x): total number of events of type x for distribution n(x)i: number of events in bin of type x frac(Sig): fraction of N(Remain) expected to be Signal binfrac(x)i: fraction of events in bin of type x expected

from MC or template σi: uncertainty in bin i

2

i

iiii2

σ

)n(OB)D)binfrac(QC*N(Remain)*frac(QCD)g)binfrac(si*N(Remain)*(frac(Sig)n(Data)χ

N(OB) - N(Data) N(Remain)

frac(Sig) - 1 frac(QCD)

Chi-squared minimization cont.

σi determined using factors for: bin error:

data signal, MC QCD template other backgrounds, MC

statistical error: data: signal region other backgrounds, MC signal, MC QCD template (uncertainty of background region

data and all MC background region carried through via default SumW2

Highest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 9.818 p-value: 0.7753 ndf: 14 chi/ndf: 0.7012

2nd Highest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 13.66 p-value: 0.5517 ndf: 15 chi/ndf: 0.9107

Dijet Mass reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 15.47 p-value: 0.6297 ndf: 18 chi/ndf: 0.8594

MET

Results for plot: chi-square: 15.87 p-value: 0.1971 ndf: 12 chi/ndf: 1.323

Closest pT bjet reconstruction

Results for plot: chi-square: 14.39 p-value: 0.2123 ndf: 11 chi/ndf: 1.308

New Event Selection Verification (Only uses MC so Excludes QCD)

Cut Sig Evts

Fakes Sig Eff. Fake Ratio

Rej Fact.

Sig/sqrt(Bkg

d)

Sig/Sqrt(Sig

+Bkgd)

C5Lep Veto

5863 1451086

- - - 4.867 4.857

C6ntaus >

0

5863 138276 1 0.09529 0.04240 15.77 15.44

C7njets

3191 11025 0.5443 0.07973 0.5318 30.39 26.76

C8MET

2583 7598 0.8095 0.6892 0.41998 29.63 25.60

C9MT

1892 3968 0.7325 0.5222 0.6510 30.04 24.72

C10bjet

1650 1230 0.8721 0.30998 1.538 47.05 30.75

C12Trig

match

941 335 0.5703 0.2724 4.925 51.41 26.34