The Outlook for Chemicals

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EMÊ. 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975

The Outlook for Chemicals As a conclusion to its four-part report on the high lights of the President's Materials Policy Commission study, C&EN rounds up the many discussions on chemicals appearing throughout the already controversial five-volume work

\^# HEMICALS, which may experience the astounding increase of some 400% over the next 25 years, will encounter raw material difficulties that offer a challenge to our technological ingenuity. This about capsulizes, as far as chemicals are concerned, the five-volume report of The President's Materials Policy Commission entitled, "Resources for Freedom."

The commission which conducted the survey for President Truman consists of William S. Paley, chairman; George R. Brown, Arthur H. Bunker, Eric Hodgins, and Edward S. Mason. Several installments discussing the report have appeared in CHEMICAL & ENGINEERING N E W S . In this article, an effort will be made to correlate the commission's extensive surveys which relate to chemicals as well as to include comment and opinion of authorities in the industry.

The chemical industry is measured in dollar terms in the report and is accorded dimensions somewhat larger than those made previously by government and industry economists. The "chemical proc

ess industry" for example, is shown to have 18,000 plants on the basis of the 1947 census, and that they turned out products that year valued at $35.4 billion. In this group are such industries as rubber processing, petroleum refining, paper and paperboard manufacture.

Even without these last mentioned, the total is $22.7 billion. There were 40 companies in the United States at that time producing chiefly chemicals, each with sales in excess of $5 million annually. The Federal Reserve Board index for all industrial production rose from 108 to 174 during the period 1939—49, and the ratio of chemical growth to all industrial growth was 300 to 161, or 1.9.

On the assumption that this relative growth wiD continue over the next 25-year period—that is, two times as great as industrial production generaUy—and as the total value of all goods and services is expected to double by 1975, this would mean that the chemical industry as a whole will be some four times its present volume by then.

However, these estimates of growth, related back to basic raw materials and energy, should point up the difficulties that may be encountered in raw material supplies in the next 2 5 years. In the extension of these resources, the Paley commission holds that research and development could be utilized in many fields, although it recognizes almost throughout the lengthy document the contributions already made by technology.

The PMPC employs the word technology broadly to research and scientific development not only in chemicals but in other lines. In its foreword to Vol. IV, "The Promise of Technology," the commission says that underlying its recommendations in the minerals field is the conviction that improved techniques of exploration can b e developed and applied to find hidden and unknown mineral deposits.

Approaching more closely to chemicals, the report in various places finds that the present state of development in titanium is disproportionate. That enormous

V O L U M E 3 0, N O . 3 2 * » A U G U S T 1 1 , 1 9 5 2 3257

The coal hydrogénation chemicals separation unit of Carbide and Carbon's new coal hydrogénation plant at Institute, W* Va /

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amounts of chemical raw materials are lost in the use of coal tar as a fuel. That equally large amounts are wasted in pulp mill spent liquors. That more use should be made of hydrolysis and fermentation. In processing basic chemicals from acetylene, it indicates that only one-fourth of the potential for acetylene thus used is being met.

Chemical market authorities are not fully in accord with some of the findings contained in the chapters devoted to chemicals from coal and petroleum, prepared by eight members of the Koppers Co., by Gustav Egloff, Universal Oil Products Co., and by Standard Oil Development Co. The broad criticism is that general agreement on future trends is lacking. It was also thought that the contributors of these valuable studies should have recognized the importance of the coal hydrogénation process recently placed in operation at Charleston, W. Va., by Carbide and Carbon Chemicals Co.

Market researchers find that some other parts of the study appear to ignore the strong possibility that the hydrogénation development may some time in the future reduce our dependence on petroleum chemicals, and in which a plateau may be reached after 1960. It is expected that by that time coal chemicals will catch up with the demand for chemical raw materials, possibly through development of the coal gasification process.

Coal processing between now and 1975, says the PMPC study, will witness the introduction of new methods. Two that are expected to become major industries in that period are hydrogénation and direct gasification of coal. Coal will be hydrogenated for synthetic liquid fuel, but the process will also produce large quantities of chemicals of the same type as now secured through coal carbonization. Direct gasification is the first step in another synthetic liquid fuel process

(gas-synthesis) that also produces byproduct chemicals. Hydrogénation and direct gasification, plus the recovery of oil from shale, will form the basis for a huge synthetic oil and by-product chemical business.

In processing coal for fuels and chemicals, the study forecasts an increase in the annual consumption of coal from 95 million tons in 1950 to 428 million tons in 1975. It predicts a loss in domestic petroleum production from 5.9 million barrels to 4.6 million per day by 1975, but the availability at that time of 2.9 million barrels per day of synthetic liquid fuel, along with an increase in petroleum imports, will compensate for the loss.

Three chemicals show lack of balance as between requirements and production —benzene, naphthalene, and the cresols. At present and in the near future the growing gap between supplies and requirements of benzene can be bridged by imports and its production from petroleum, but undoubtedly new major sources for benzene must be developed. Coal hydrogénation appears to promise a long-range correction.

The naphthalene picture is substantially the same, according to the study, and again coal hydrogénation appears to supply the answer. Elsewhere in the report it is contended that phthalic anhydride, which is now largely derived from naphthalene, may be more advantageously obtained from petroleum o-xylene than from petroleum naphthalene. Cresols and cresylic acid apparently will be produced by coal hydrogénation considerably in excess of future requirements. Current cresylic acid supplies are obtained from the coke oven, petroleum, and from imports. It is held that better means must be developed for utilizing these phenol homologs in place of benzene-derived phenol for the manufacture of phenolic resins.

Chemicals to be supplied by coal carbonization and coal hydrogénation are expected to show the following demand increases by 1975:

Cyclic plastics Synthetic

rubber (GR-S)

Insecticides Surfactants Plasticizers Solvents Others

1950 Million

1,284

802 210 373 180 679 398

1955 1975 Pounds Per Year

2,690

1,900 325 936 300 787 472

12,800

9,000 2,100 1,865 1,800 1,244 1,025

The most important cyclic intermediates required are phenol, styrene, and phthalic anhydride. Phenol requirements are seen to rise from 331 million pounds annually in 1950 to 2806 million pounds in 1975. It is now supplied principally from benzene through sulfation and other methods, but 25 years hence it is expected that coal hydrogénation will furnish 1350 million pounds annually, as against zero at present. Remainder of the estimated production of 2806 million pounds of phenol by that time will be derived from benzene and through coal carbonization.

Cresols, vital to plastics and other chemicals, will be required up to 448 million pounds by 1975 compared with 90 million pounds in 1950, including cresylic acid. The production of cresols alone through coal hydrogénation 25 years hence is estimated at 1290 million pounds.

Turning from aromatics to other basically required chemicals, it is believed that some of the more important will be obtained from coal or from oil shale, directly and indirectly. We now derive acetylene from calcium carbide and from petroleum gases. Requirements for chemical uses, apart from welding, were 300 million pounds in 1950 and may expand to one billion pounds in 1975. It is expected that calcium carbide will supply

3258 C H E M I C A L A N D E N G I N E E R I N G N E W S

Ammonia v. Thousands of Tons per Year -

I 1950 Requirements, ^ total, . " ^ 1^,751 Production: , . ' "

From coal carbonization ~ - 231 By-product of synthetic fuel 0 By-product of synthetic fuel Ο Production total 1,751

1955 3,235

300 55 55

3,235

1975 6,710

370 1,880 4,460 6,710

one-third of this, and other sources such as coal processes and shale the remainder.

The nation's ammonia supply, now obtained chiefly in pressure synthesis employing nitrogen from the air and hydrogen, is expected to assume a different pattern in the future. A total of more than 6.7 million tons in 1975 is broken down as above:

To return to acetylene, it is the opinion of the PMPC that this basic material will be made to some extent from natural gas and petroleum hydrocarbons, and it is reported that some chemical companies are now installing commercial units for this purpose. The manufacture of chemicals in 1950, which as noted, consumed 300 million pounds of acetylene (out of a total of 414 million pounds) , required 300,000 tons of coke.

Production of acetylene chemicals in 1950 and amount of raw material required was as shown in adjoining columns:

Processes are in development for making acrylonitrile from acetylene. Acrylonitrile will b e used in increasing amounts for synthetic fibers, for Buna Ν (GR-A) synthetic rubber, and for neoprene-type synthetic rubber. The PMPC report states that apparently only one-fourth of the potential for acetylene in the compounds in the above table is being met. Acetic acid and acetic anhydride are probably made from other sources to a great extent.

An added complication is the fact that Canada exports a large amount of acetylene chemicals, especially vinyl resins, to the United States. If one assumes a tenfold increase in the use of acetylene chemicals by 1975, and that new production up to 1955 is only one-half from carbide, the other half from hydrocarbons, and that by 1975 only one-third of the total is from carbide, the following projections become evident:

Because of its importance in the manufacture of steel and as a source for chemicals, the coking of coal is given a good deal of attention in the PMPC report. It finds in this connection that existing coke-oven capacity is not Sufficient to meet demands ahead for either steel or chemicals. Even for the comparatively nearby period of 1955 the need is for an additional 10.3 million net tons of chemical recovery-type ovens. From 1950 through 1975 w e will require new capacity for 103.6 million net tons of coke to b e provided by 18,870 ovens.

There is a probability that the production of crude tar b y coke ovens will rise from 749 million gallons in 1950 to 1160 million in 1975. Much of the tar is lost

to chemicals through the practice of distillers in using it for fuel, and some also "top" it only to remove the lower boiling distillates. The contention is made that tar now burned or topped represents a large reservoir of coal tar products "which would b e available for commercial use if all open hearth furnaces at steel plants were heated with fuels other than crude or topped tar.

The commercial use of tar bases, or pyridine bases, has increased steadily in the past 20 years and further increases are expected. Increased coke-oven operations during the next 2 5 years are expected t o make additional crude tar bases available from tar oils and ammonia liquors in sufficient amount to take care of any foreseeable demands. With expanded coke-oven capacity, larger yields wi l l appear in light oil, source for arornatics and of

which ϋ .5 to 3 gallons is obtained from each ton o f coal carbonized..

In comnnenting on these predictions for the coke-oven industry, chemical market experts ajpun fee l that the output potentials of trie Carbide and Carbon hydrogénation method have been overlooked. In fairness to t h e authors, however, it is also pointed out that a good part of the coal and petroleum discussions were prepared before the Carbide and Carbon development became generally known.

Notwithstanding, coal hydrogénation and coal gasification processes here and abroad a re amply discussed in their broad

^implications. One of the interesting compilations i n the report forecasts the capital requirements between now and 1975 for synthetic Euel plants at a total of $19,460 million. T h e largest share, $7,040 million, is for hyclrogenation, with gas synthesis plants req*iiiing $6,800 million, and shah· oil projects $5,620 million.

Some o£ the chemical industry's major supply qutestkms are given treatment in a number of places in the five-volumt* study. Sulfur i s an example. Volume IL "The Outlook for Key Commodities/'

•throws soame light on domestic mineral reserves a_nd estimates them roughly at 100 million tons, or double the conservative estimate issued by the United States Geological. Survey in 1951. The PMPC

Production of Acetylene Chemicals

(Millions of Pounds)

Pentaerythritol Acetic acid ( 1 0 0 % synthetic) Acetic anhydride Cellulose acetate Vinyl resins Nsoprene rubber Acrylo-type rubber Acrylo-type fibers (capacity by 1951) Trichlorethylene, etc. estimated

Productions.

" 25 350

-^650 366

-381 ~ 112 > ,

27 11

l^OOO .

Est imated Usage of Acetylene

61

230s'1

4 8 0 X 2 S

— I904

70 — —

220 Total 1,196

1 1,240 pounds actylene per 2,000 lb. of acetaldeJryde. ~ 2,200 lb. of acetaldehyde per 23O00 lb . of acetic acid. s 2,400 lb. of acetaldehyde per 2,000 lb. of acetic arilvydride. 4 Basis that vinyl resins are all polyvinyl chlorides.

CHEMICAL ACETYLENE P R O D U C T I O N

•MILLIONS OF POUNDS

3000

20CO

1000

CALCIUM CARBIDE USAGE

Î950 1955^ 1960 Î9S5 1970, Ï975

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report believes the larger reserve total, which is equivalent to 16.6 years' supply at current demand, to be more reasonable now although "highly speculative."

Industry leaders recendy (C&EN, page 3094, July 28 , 1952) contended that domestic sulfur demands are being met and that world supplies now promise to show an annual increase by 1955 of 4,040,000 tons. The PMPC study on the other hand indicates that the current tightness in sulfur may not end before 1955-56, in spite of recently announced new discoveries of low-cost deposits. It holds that a price rise of 25 to 50% would make some Frasch process sulfur available, but more important, would probably increase commercial domestic reserves from all sources to about 250-450 million tons.

For the rest of the world decreasing dependence upon the United States is seen along with a moderate increase of 10 to 15% in the average real cost of the element playing a part. Elsewhere in the report the contention is made repeatedly that prospecting for new sulfur reserves in this country has been insufficient. Recovery of the element meanwhile would b e assisted by such measures as limitations upon stream pollution.

Sections of die "Promise of Technology"' report discussing metals have met with favorable comment. Some of these surveys are quite extensive, and in the instance of titanium the report ran to 17 pages or about 22,000 words. It was prepared by workers from the Battelle Memorial Institute and it holds that ti

tanium metal has three unbeatable characteristics which ensure its place as a major metal—high strength, light weight, and good corrosion resistance.

But at its present state of development, they contend, it appears that a disproportionate effort is being expended in fields other than that of extractive metallurgy. The only extractive process that has reached a commercial scale is the one proposed by Kroll and further developed at the U. S. Bureau of Mines, involving the reduction of titanium tetrachloride with magnesium. It is an expensive operation and there is reluctance on part of business to go ahead with this method. It requires about 2 0 kilowatt-hours of electric energy per pound of titanium produced, or 4 billion kw-hr. per year to support a 100,-0O0-ton production level. It would require chlorine-regeneration facilities of 450,000 tons per year.

The chief task for technology here is in finding cheap methods of extracting ductile titanium metal from ilmenite. The best chances seem to he with either continuous Kroll-type or iodide-type methods. Attainment of a tonnage status for titanium will reduce the need for many of our metals. The report on zirconium, also by Battelle, holds the future for this metal to be promising, but only in limited tonnages for highly specialized applications. The chief role of technology will b e in methods to increase zirconium production and decrease its cost.

The PMPC makes a number of recommendations through its voluminous sur

vey in connection with mineral resources that meet with approval. In mining operations, it says, we still leave an astounding fraction in the ground, and in using mined or harvested materials we frequently throw away large quantities. For example, about 5 0 % of the commercial grades of coal and more than 50% of the petroleum in an average pool are left behind in the process of production (Vol. I ) .

Roughly, one out of every 10 pounds of copper in ores is thrown on the tailings heap; more sulfur is blown from the smokestacks of industry than is consumed; enough natural gas was wasted in 1950 to supply the gas needs of 11 million of the nation's homes. A considerable fraction of "harvested" resources also goes unused; only 6 5 % of the average tree that is cut ends up as useful material; and millions of tons of agricultural growth—stalks, for example—are lost every year because there is no economical way to use them. Technical advances that will make it profitable to reduce these physical wastes will enormously benefit the nation's materials supply.

The Role of Synthetics Synthetics also can be expected to play

an expanding role in our materials stream, the report adds elsewhere, and hopefully can relieve some of our most serious difficulties. The prospects of relief from materials shortages in the near future through the route of synthetic materials can be exaggerated, it holds, but modern science and technology, which have helped create materials shortages by expanding demand, are challenged now to help solve die materials problem in a host of ways, not the least of which is by synthesizing new substances from abundant or renewable sources.

In analyzing the difficulties of die nation's materials problem, the commission finds that the essence of it will be found in costs. Real costs, it says, h e i n the hours of human work and the amounts of capital required to bring a pound of industrial material or a unit of energy into useful form. These real costs have for some years been declining, and this decline has helped our living standards to rise. Hence, in their view, today's threat in the materials problem is that this downward trend in real costs may b e stopped or reversed tomorrow—if, indeed, i t has not already occurred.

The problem is not that we will suddenly wake up to find the last barrel of oil exhausted or the last pound of lead gone, and that economic activity has collapsed. W e face instead, according to the conclusion of the commission, the threat of having to devote constandy increasing efforts to win each pound of materials from resources which are dwindling both in quantity and quality.

Using 1950 as a base year, the report estimates that United States consumption of all raw materials will increase 5 3 % by 1975. Raw materials other than agricultural will rise 64%; agricultural 39%;

A N D E N G I N E E R I N G N E W S 3&60 C H E M I C A L

forest products 17%; all minerals 90%; nonferrous metals 85%; mineral fuels 97%; construction materials 35%; and other nonmetallic materials 133% over 1950.

We have been utilizing our resources, minerals especially, with a lavish hand which between 1900 and 1950 resulted in the drain of 26 million tons of coal, 40 billion barrels of petroleum, 3 billion tons of iron ore, 22 million tons of lead, 26 million tons of zinc, and 33 million tons of copper. Provided through imports or advanced technology, it is evident that larger increases in materials supplies are necessary.

Some individual products are slated for very great expansion in consumption during the next 25 years. The use of cobalt is expected to rise 344%; titanium and cadmium 324%; and magnesium 1845*3».

As to the prospects for discovery, new discoveries of traditional materials will call for new methods. Prospectors have combed nearly every square mile of the continental United States and Alaska. Instead of searching for out-croppings, the search for minerals from now on must be directed to minerals that are hidden in the earth.

One criticism of the commission's long-term consumption estimates for metals and minerals is that some of them do not allow for the development of other materials to take their place, a trend that might become quite marked as scarcities appear. Synthetic resins already have permanently assumed industrial applications that were once exclusively filled by copper, other nonferrous metals, and even by steel.

These developments are even set forth in another volume of the report, Vol. IV, in the section which covers plastics and other synthetics. Plastic pipe attained a market volume of 5.25 million pounds in 1950 although it has been made available commercially only in the last two or three years. It has found industrial acceptance because of its light weight, corrosion-resistance, and ease of handling. Three resin types entering plastic pipe are polyethylene, cellulose acetate butyrate, and modified polystyrene.

Polyester resin laminates, or combinations of resins and fibrous materials such as wood, paper, glass cloth, or chopped fiber, are materials of high strength and rigidity which are serving in many places formerly filled by metals. There are hardly any limits on the size or shape of products that can be made from these materials. Monofilaments from a copolymer of vinyl chloride and vinylidene chloride are being woven into screen cloth, a market which amounted to 118 million sq. ft. in 1947 and which should expand in times of metal scarcity. Copolymers of styrene and rubber latex are evidently referred to in the statement in the report which points to the success of water emulsion paints, but which in other respects minimizes the role of resins in the paint business. Vinyl materials have made great inroads into floor coverings which have been dominated by linseed oil linoleum and asphalt tile.

Government Plans Progressing Rapidly

A frequent occurrence in Government is to appoint a committee to study a given problem. After the committee does the study and makes recommendations to correct the situation, the matter is then either forgotten or discussed for a long period with little concrete action.

Tins does not appear to be die fate in store for the study made by the President's Materials Policy Commission. The five-volume report, prepared over a period of 18 months with the aid of hundreds of specialists in government, industry, universities, and research foundations, was presented to President Truman in mid-June.

On July 1, the President sent the report to Congress. Except for his request for funds for the National Security Resources Board (NSRB), Mr. Truman did not ask for any action at this time on the 78 specific recommendations made by Mr. Paley and his staff. He did state, however, that he hoped that each congressman and senator and especially the members of congressional committees concerned with the subject involved would familiarize themselves with these documents. lie said that appropriate recommendations would be made to Congress as the needs for new legislation were determined.

As recommended by PMPC, Mr. Truman assigned NSRB the responsibility of initiating a continuing review of policies and programs relating to the entire materials and energy situation. NSRB, the Government's long-range planning agency with respect to resource development, was also requested to organize a special task force composed of representatives of various government agencies to study the PMPC recommendations. He set a 60-day limit on the time for the task force to submit its suggestions as to how PMPC's recommendations might be carried out. NSRB was further instructed to submit reports each year on the progress of materials programs and policies and the long-term outlook for materials, with emphasis on significant new problems.

Mr. Truman also gave the heads of each government department and agency concerned with materials problems 60 days to study PMPC recommendations which relate to their fields of activity and to submit to NSRB the steps which they consider appropriate to carry out the recommendations, including necessary legislation.

The Budget Bureau was instructed to make a detailed examination of the structure and functions of the executive branch of the Government to determine what steps should be taken to assure that, from an organization standpoint, this branch of the Government will be equipped to carry out most effectively the Government's materials policies and programs. Here again a 60-day period was granted to submit findings.

NSRB Acts

As his first step, Jack Gorrie, NSRB chairman, assigned his agency's responsibility to NSRB*s Office of Natural Re

sources, headed by William H. Stead. A preliminary meeting of representatives of the government agencies (task force) with NSRB officials has already been held, at which time a general outline was worked out as to the function of each member.

Initial studies indicate that the task will be too great to meet the 60-day deadline requested by the President. NSRB, however, expects to review all agency reports by August 21. The task force will spend the next 30 days preparing an overall report. Allowing time for final revision, NSRB expects to present its report and the agency reports to the President by Sept, 30.

Present indications are that the NSBB report will first set' forth the necessary steps and desirable programs which can be undertaken immediately. A second part of the report will discuss those projects which are desirable but which first require authority of the President, legislation approved by Congress, or additional funds, or a combination of these.

The task force will be continued beyond that date to serve NSRB in a consultative capacity. The task force will aid in the continuing review of materials and energy policies and programs and in preparing the annual report requested by the President.

Industry's Role As President Truman has noted, only

part of the tremendous task of improving the nation's materials supply situation can be done by Government; much will have to be done fey private industry. He specifically included in this category labor organizations, farm groups, universities, and private foundations.

There is as yet no specific plan outlining the role that industry will take in the picture. However, it is reliably reported that two private foundations are interested in taking steps to keep the Paley report alive. One of these is already doing work on a limited scale; the second has scheduled a meeting of several interested parties to decide what it might do. It appears possible that this foundation, whose identity cannot yet be revealed, may organize a group similar to the Citizens Committee for the Hoover Report. The Citizens Committee was designed to keep the public informed on efforts being made to reorganize the Government and to take every possible step to see that i t was done. The group which would work on the Paley report would try to keep the public informed and to encourage Government and industry to take necessary steps to put into effect measures which would better the nation's materials resources position.

It does not appear likely that this foundation will announce any specific plans until late this year or early next year.

In its four earlier reports of the PMPC studies, "Resources for Freedom," C&EN covered the following topics: "Foundation for Growth and Security/* 4Tl»e Outlook for Energy Sources," "The Outlook for Key Commodities," and "The Promise of Technology." These articles appeared in the issues of July 7 through July 2 8 , respectively.

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The Outlook for Chemicals

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