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1 eytan geninde demokrasi oyunuProf.Dr. rer.nat.D. Ali Ercan

Temiz ve Adil Seim Paneli26.1.2014, AnkaraSayn Bakan, deerli katlmclar,Bu sunumda ksaca Trkiyede halen yrrlkte olan seim yasasnn arpk mantndan kaynaklanan adaletsizlie deineceim.1DEMOKRAS NEDR ?

Greke (halk) ve (Kuvvet, iktidar) kelimelerinden halkn halk tarafndan ynetimi (halklk) anlamna gelen Demokrasinin temel evrensel karakteristikleri eitlik ve zgrlk tr. Eitlik ilkesi gereince, seimlerde her yurttan eit arlkl bir oyu vardr !?

Gerekten yle mi?

Demokrasi kelimesi eski grekede halk anlamna gelen demos ve g, kuvvet anlamna gelen kratos kelimelerinden tretilmitir. Halkn halk tarafndan ynetimi anlamna gelir. M. Kemal Atatrk buna ksaca halklk demiti. Demokrasinin temel evrensel karakteristikleri eitlik ve zgrlktr. Seim Demokrasinin vazgeilmez kouludur. Eitlik ilkesi gereince seimlerde her yurttan eit arlkl bir oyu vardr. Sorgulamak gerekir; lkemizdeki demokrasi uygulamasnda gerekten yle mi? 2

Semen says : 41,4 milyon % 100,0 Katlm : 32,8 milyon % 79 Geerli oylar : 31,5 milyon % 96 Baraj : % 10 ( dHondt ) Temsil edilen oy : 17,3 milyon % 41 TRKYE GENEL MLLETVEKL SEM

DNYANIN EN ANTDEMOKRATK SEM Dikkatinizi ekmek istediim ikinci nokta 2002 ylndaki genel seimdir. Tamamen tesadfler zinciri ile oluamayacak kadar olaslk d grnen, ok derin bir toplum mhendislii planlamas olduunu dndm bu seimde, Trkiye uzun yllar gese de etkilerini zerinden kolay kolay atamayaca siyasal bir ok yaamtr. YSK rakamlaryla 41,4 milyon semenin % 21inin katlmad bu seimde, oylarn byk bir ksm %10 barajna taklm, ve sonuta semen kitlesinin % 60 kadarnn oylar Meclise yansmamtr. Bu nasl oldu, ona bakalm;34% 272002 SEM MACERASI

AKP NN OY ORANIAKP nin oylar tm semen oylarnn sadece % 27 si kadard (AKP kkeni Refah % 18 civarnda oy alyordu)

9k45% 27KATILMAYAN% 212002 SEM MACERASI

AKP NN OY ORANIAncak semenlerin %21 kadar, yani yaklak AKP semeni kadar byk bir semen kitlesi yaz tatil dnemi olmad halde seime katlmad. Normal koullarda semenlerin %15 kadarnn seimlere katlmay makul saylabilir. Dolaysyla semenlerin en az 2 milyon kadarn seimlerden uzak tutacak psikolojik etkinlik salanabilmiti. 56% 342002 SEM MACERASI

AKP NN SEM OY ORANIAKP nin %27 lik oyu katlmn %79 olduu seimde 27/79= %34 deerine ulam oldu. Ancak mecliste %34 n karlna gelen 0,34 x 550 = 187 sandalyeden ok daha fazlasn elde etti. nk Bata DYP olmak zere 16 Parti %10 baraj altnda kalm ve dolaysyla katlm ierisindeki oylar %45 eksilmiti.. Bu seimde dikkati eken en ilgin olay bir evvelki seimde %22,2 oy alan DSP nin bu seimde %1,2 ile 20 puvan birden kaybetmesi adeta yok oluuydu. APOnun yakalannda halkn Sempatisini kazanan Ecevit, Merwe olayndaki taktik adan yanl tutumunun bedelini demek durumunda kald. (aklanacak) CHP+DSP 1999 da toplam %31 oy almlard; 2002 de toplamda 10 puvan kaybederek, ancak %21 alabildiler. 1999 da her iki Partiye oy veren semenlerin yaklak te biri bu sefer seime katlmadlar; ve dolayl olarak AKP yi desteklediler.67% 342002 SEM MACERASI

AKP NN SEM OY ORANIBaraj altnda kalanlar% 45 Bylece AKP nin %34 lk geerli oy oran kalan %55 ierisinde 34/55 = %63 ne karlk geldi; ancak yine de Meclisteki sandalyelerin %63n deil, 78% 66

365 Milletvekili2002 SEM MACERASI

AKP NN TBMM DEK TEMSL ORANI%66,4 n yani 365 milletvekillii kazanm oldu. 892002 SEM MACERASI

AKP NN TBMM DEK TEMSL ORANI+140225AKP bir yandan demokratik grevini ihmal eden semenlerin seime katlmaylar dier yandan seim yasasnn arpk mantndan kaynaklanan adaletsizlikle Meclisteki sandalyelerin nerdeyse 2/3 ne sahip oldu. yani Anayasay deitirmek iin gerekli mutlak ounluk oran 367 saysna 2 eksik kald. Oysa seim baraj %5 olsayd, her l e otomatik +1 milletvekili kural olmasayd ve dHondt saym sistemi yerine oransal temsil usul uygulansayd AKP ancak 225 milletvekili karabilirdi.. AKPnin hak ettiinden 140 milletvekili fazladan karmasnn gerek nedeni halk tarafndan anlalmad ve (hakl veya haksz) oylarn alnd, sahtekarlk yapld ynnde sylentiler yaylmaya balad 910

2002 GENEL SEM SONULARI (LELER)3651778Bu haritada 2002 seim sonucunun ileler baznda arlkl Parti oylarnn dalm gsteriliyor.Trakyada ve Ege-Akdeniz ky eridinde CHP nin Gney-Dou Anadoluda DEHAPn ve geri kalan yerlerde AKP nin kazandn gryoruz. (Orta Anadoluda DEHAPn kazand tek ile Cihanbeyli)10

SEMLERE KATILIM ORANLARI

Kasm 2002 Genel Seim ..................% 79 Temmuz 2007 Genel Seim ...............% 84 ? Mart 2009 Yerel ynetim Seimi .......% 85 ? Eyll 2010 Anayasa Referandumu.....% 74 Haziran 2011 Genel Seim .................% 83 ?!

Ortalama katlm ................................% 77

* YSK rakamlarANAYASA OYLAMASI KATILMAYAN % 26 % 57,9 EVET 0,579 x 0,74 % 43 % 42,1 HAYIR 0,421 x 0,74 % 31

MEVCUT ANAYASA HALKIN SADECE YZDE 43 nnEVET DED BR ANAYASADIR !!

KRT BOYKOTU SZ KONUSU DEL; ARI, BATMAN, BNGL, HAKKAR, SRT.. % 95 EVETSon 12 ylda yaplan seimlere katlm oran ortalama % 78 olmutur. 2011 ylnda yaplan seimde rekor katlm oran %83 belirgin bir ekilde bu ortalamann zerindedir; Bu fark yaklak 3 milyon ilave semen demektir. 2007 ve 2009 seimlerinde katlmn yksek grnmesinin nedeni ysk tarafndan Semen saysnn olduundan 5 milyon dk gsterilmesidir.Anayasa Referandumunda ise Anayasa deiikliine %58 evet oyu kmtr; ancak katlmn %74 oluu gz nne alnrsa, Mevcut Anayasa halkn sadece % 43 nn Evet dedii bir Anayasadr. 1112Dk Eitimli ve Dk Gelirli Toplumlarda Demokrasi dzgn ilemez ;

Gelir (G) , Eitim (E) , Katlm (K) ve Sosyal Adalet (g) belirteleriyleDemokrasi Faktr F = G x E x (K-0,5) / g Demokrasi Katsays

Dk eitimli ve dk gelirli toplumlarda Demokrasinin tm kurum ve kurallaryla ve dzgn bir ekilde ileyemeyeceini ifade ederler sosyal bilimciler ve tm kural ve kurumlaryla demokratik ileyii test eden 10 kadar belirte sayarlar. Ben bu belirtelerden en nemli ve olan drdn, Gelir, Sosyal adalet, Eitim ve katlm ieren demokrasi faktrnn (F) bir fonksiyonu olarak Demokrasi katsays (D) tanmlamak istiyorum. 1213Dk Eitimli ve Dk Gelirli Toplumlarda Demokrasi dzgn ilemez ;

Gelir (G) , Eitim (E) , Katlm (K) ve Sosyal Adalet (g) belirteleriyleDemokrasi Faktr F = G x E x (K-0,5) / g Demokrasi Katsays

DF Demokrasi Faktr bydke Toplumun demokratik olgunluk dzeyini gsteren ve D=1-exp(-F/4) eklinde ssel olarak artan Demokrasi katsays da doal olarak ykselecektir.1314Dk Eitimli ve Dk Gelirli Toplumlarda Demokrasi dzgn ilemez ;

Gelir (G) , Eitim (E) , Katlm (K) ve Sosyal Adalet (g) belirteleriyleDemokrasi Faktr F = G x E x (K-0,5) / g Demokrasi Katsays

DF50100%246810D= 1- exp(-F/4)1415Dk Eitimli ve Dk Gelirli Toplumlarda Demokrasi dzgn ilemez ;

Gelir (G) , Eitim (E) , Katlm (K) ve Sosyal Adalet (g) belirteleriyleF = 0,9 x 6,3 x 0,265 /0,41=3,66 D= 0,60

DF50100%246810TrkiyeTrkiyede ~100 bin Dernekte ~7,5 milyon ye var rgtllk oran %10 Avrupada %40-50sveTrkiyede fert bana ortalama gelir Dnya ortalamasnn yaklak 0,9 kadardr. ( yaklak 9 bin dolar) Toplumda gelir dalm adaletini gsteren Gini-katsays 0,40 tr. (ki gelimi, Uygar lkelerde bu katsaynn 0,25-0,35 arasnda olduunu biliyoruz) Trkiyede Semenlerin ortalama eitim dzeyleri 6,3 yl ve seimlere katlm oran ortalama %78 dir. Bu deerlerle Trkiyenin Demokrasi katsaysn 0,60 olarak buluyoruz; bir baka ifade ile, Trkiyenin demokrasi notu 100 zerinden 60 tr diyebiliriz. Birinci sradaki svein Demokrasi katsaysnn 0,99 olduu, svele Trkiye arasnda 40 kadar lkenin bulunduu gz nne alndnda Demokrasimizin henz ileri Demokrasi olmadn syleyebiliriz. 1516DEMOGRAF

Nfus, Ya Dalm, Ortalama Ya, Ortalama Yaam Sresi, Yaam Beklentisi, Kadn Bana ocuk says, Dourganlk (fertility), Yllk Nfus art hz Yllk lm, Doum ve G oran

Semen Saysimdi gelelim Semen saysnn belirlenmesine Bunun iin Nfus ve Ya Dalm, Ortalama Yaam sresi gibi demografik parametrelerin bilinmesi gerekir. 16TC resmi nfus saym sonular:

1927 13,65 milyon ... ...1960 27,75 1965 31,391970 35,611975 40,35 1980 44,74*1985 50,661990 56,472000 67,80[DE2012 sayfa 8]Trkiyenin Nfusu, ilk defa 1927 de yaplan ve her 5 ylda bir tekrarlanan Genel Nfus saymlar ile belirleniyordu.. 2000 ylndan sonra bu gvenilir usul terk edilerek adrese dayal Nfus kayt sistemi temelinde nfus tahminleri yaplmaya baland. 1960 ylnda yaklak 28 milyon olan Nfus 200 ylnda 68 milyona erimiti. Bir baka ifade ile, nfusumuz 40 ylda 40 milyon, yani ylda ortalama 1 milyon artmt. 17181990 56,5 67,8

70,6 71,5 72,6 73,7 74,7 75,6TUIKDIE?5 milyon Vatanda kayttan nasl dld ?Ylda 1,0 milyon !? Ylda 1,0 milyon !Nfus geliim analizlerinden elde edilen sonulara gre, 2007 de 75,4 milyon olmas beklenen nfus TUIK tarafndan 70,6 milyon olarak beyan edildi ve takip eden yllarda da, eskiden olduu gibi, ylda bir kabaca 1 milyon artrlarak 2012 sonu itibariyle 75,6 milyon rakamna gelindi; Oysa 2013 yl nfusumuz 13 ylda en az 13 milyon artm olarak 81 milyonu am olmas beklenirdi. (Avrupa ve Amerikadaki baz resmi kurumlar da bu ynde tahminlerde bulunmutur) yaklak 5 milyon Yurttan kayt dna alnm grnts veren bir durumla kar karyayz.18197570DETUIKTUIK Nfusa kaytl (Vatandalk numaras olan)Toplam 81 milyon kadar Trk Vatandann bulunduunu ve bunlarn 5 milyon kadarnn Yurt dnda yaadn, dolaysyla 2013 Trkiye Nfusunun 76 milyondan daha fazla olamayacan sylyor.827720072014TUIK NFUS HAREKET2000TUIK nfusa kaytl, yani vatandalk numaras olan toplam 81 milyon kadar Trk vatandann bulunduunu ve bunlarn 5 milyon kadarnn yurt dnda yaadn, dolaysyla Trkiye nfusunun 76 milyondan daha fazla olamayacan sylyor. Ve 2007 den geriye doru 1980 lere kadar eski verilerin dzeltilmesi gerektiini beyan ediyor. 19c d 2 yYllk nfus art hzKadn bana mr boyunca ortalama ocuk saysOrtalama yaam sresi (yl),05Yllk Nfus art hzn kadn bana ocuk says ve toplumdaki ortalama yaam sresi belirler. Kadn bana ocuk says 2 olduunda nfus art hz sfr olacak ve Nfus sabit kalacak demektir. 2 den byk olduunda Nfus azalacak, 2 den kk olduunda azalacaktr. Ancak kadnlarn ve erkeklerin toplam nfus ierisindeki saysal oran ve ortalama yaam sreleri ayn olmadndan bu eitlikte 2 yerine yaklak 2,05 alnr.2021c = ykd - 1 - (fe.yk ) / (fk.ye) 1,03

2,83 - 1 - (0,505x66,3)/(0,495x65,8)

= 0,012

66,3 Trkiyenin nfusu her gn 2500 artyor.Trkiyede kadn/erkek nfus oran fe/fk=0,505/0,495 tir (Yani her 51 erkee kar 50 kadn var) Ortalama yaam sreleri de 2013 ylnda kadnlar iin yk=66,3 yl erkekler iin ye=65,8 yldr; bu verilerle 2 yerine 2,03 rakam elde ediliyor. Sonuta Trkiyenin u andaki nfus art hznn binde 12 olduunu ve her gn nfusumuzun en az 2500 arttn syleyebiliriz.21222050195020001020()c++++TRKYE NFUS ARTI HIZI 2000 yl ncesi yaplan saymlardan yllk nfus art hzn da belirlemek mmkndr. Buna gre 1950 lerde binde 30 dzeyine kadar ykselmi olan nfus art hz 1960 sonras inie gemi ve 2000 de binde 16,5 olmutur. Bu ini trendinin devam ederek 2050 lerde binde 5 dzeyinin altna inecei tahmin ediliyor. 22232050195020001020()c++++TRKYE NFUS ARTI HIZI 2014 Nfusu 1,21 x 2000 Nfusu

1,21 x 67,8 = 82 milyon

16,52000-2012 arasndaki 12 yllk nfus art hzlarnn arpmndan 2013 yl (yl sonu) nfusumuzun 2000 ylna gre % 20 kadar arttn, dolaysyla 81 milyon civarnda olacan tahmin edebiliriz. Zaten dz hesapla da yani 13 ylda 13 milyon artla 68 milyondan 81 milyon zerine klacan ngrmek de ok yanl bir tahmin olmazd.2324

DNYA NFUS ARTI HIZI Bu arada Trkiyedeki nfus artnn gidiatn kyaslamak iin Dnya Nfus art hzna bakalm. Dnyada Elektronik a diye adlandrlan bu dnemde, 1950-2000 aras nfus patlamasnn yaand dnem oldu. Dnya tarihinde insanln nfus art hz hi bu kadar yksek olmamt. (Grafikte 1960 ylnda ilk defa piyasaya srlen doum kontrol haplarnn ani etkisi de grlyor.)24252050195020001020()c++++TRKYE NFUS ARTI HIZI

Bu dnemde Dnya ortalamas binde 22 leri grd. Trkiyede ise belirgin bir ekilde daha yksek bir art hz gzlemlendi. zellikle Gney Dou Anadoluda belli bir halk kesimi siyasal amal gdlenmi yerel nfus politikasnn etkisiyle binde 30 civarndaki art hzn srdrd. (akla)25

YAYA DAILIMI

20231990%Ort. ya = y. f(y). dy / f(y). dy

Ort. mr = y. (f/y) . dy / (f/y) . dy f (y)18+ SEMEN SAYISIOrtalama mr 51,4Semen saysn hesaplayabilmek iin sadece nfusu bilmek yetmez. Ayn nfusta olan iki populasyonun semen says ortalama yaam srelerine gre farkl olabilir. ncelikle ya dalm fonksiyonunun bilinmesi gerekir. Normal olarak ya dalm fonksiyonu 5 veya 6 parametreyle gsterilebilen bir polinom eklindedir. Burada gsterildii gibi ortalama ya ve ortalama yaam sresi matematik yolla belirlenebilir. rnein 1990 ylnda Trkiyede ortalama yaam sresi 51,4 yl ve ortalama ya ise 26,4 olarak bulunmutur. Semen saysnn tm nfusa oran % 57 dir. leriki yllarda rnein 2023 te bu oran % 72 olacaktr. 26

TRKYE'DE 1990 YA DAILIMIYA%ORTALAMA YA26,2ORTALAMA MR51,4*(*) DEVLET STATSTK ENSTTS 1993 VERLER27

=

< X > =ORTALAMA MR

ORTALAMA YA

== 51,4 = 26,2 a0= 1,932E-02a1 = 1,240E-03 a2=-9,591E-05a3 = 2,302E-06 a4=-2,407E-08a5 = 9,266E-11 29f (x)Y a xabhyPopulasyonun ortalama yaam sresiX [(y+h)a+hb]/2y)

y = h X a+ b/2Nfus dalmn bu ekilde basit bir modele indirgersek, ortalama ya ve ortalama yaam sreleri basit formllerle ifade edilebilir. Bu modelde Ortalama yaam sresi X [(y+h)a+hb]/2y) ve Ortalama Ya x{ (2h+y)a2 +h(b2+3ab) } /3[(h+y)a+hb)] dir.y=h olduunda;Ortalama yaam sresi X=a+b/2 ve Ortalama ya x=(3a2+b2+3a.b)/(6a + 3b) oluyor.

2930f (x)Y a xabhyPopulasyonun ortalama ya< x > { (2h+y)a2 +h(b2+3ab) } /3[(h+y)a+hb)]3a2 + b2 + 3a.b3 (2a + b)< x > h y31

ERKEKKADINTUIK 2012rnein TUIK tarafndan yaynlanan 2012 ya dalm grafiinden Ortalama yaam sresi 66 yl, ortalama ya 34 olarak bulunmaktadr. 18 ya ve zeri Semen saysnn tm nfusa oran da % 70 tir. (Nfusun % 30 u 18 ya alt genlik) 3132

ERKEKKADINOrt. mr ~ 65,8Ort. Ya ~ 34,0a = 34b = 58Ort. mr ~ 66,3Ort. Ya ~ 34,1rnein TUIK tarafndan yaynlanan 2012 ya dalm grafiinden Ortalama yaam sresi 66 yl, ortalama ya 34 olarak bulunmaktadr. 18 ya ve zeri Semen saysnn tm nfusa oran da % 70 tir. (Nfusun % 30 u 18 ya alt genlik) 323319902000807060203020202010+TRKYEDE ORTALAMA YAAM SRESyl+++++51,4+ 48,6 x (1-exp(-0,01624x(yl-1990)))2000 yl ncesi yaplan saymlardan yllk nfus art hzn da belirlemek mmkndr. Buna gre1970 e kadar % 25 lere kadar ykselen nfus art hz 1970 sonras inie gemi ve 2000 de % 1,65 deerine inmitir. Bu trendin devam ederek nfus art hzmzn 2050 lerde binde 5 dzeyinin altna inecei tahmin ediliyor.Ortalama yaam sresi 2014 te ~ 67 yl ve 2015 te ~ 68 yl olacak.3334ORTALAMA YAAM SRES ve ORTALAMA YAAM BEKLENTSORTALAMA YAAM SRES450tEer ortalama yaam sresinin gidiat gvenilir bir dorulukla biliniyorsa ileriye doru yaam beklentisi de hesaplanabilir; Bu grafikte gsterildii gibi t zamanndaki deer ortalama yaam sresi, t noktasndan 45 derecelik eimle geen dorunun eriyi kestii nokta ise o yl doanlar iin beklenen ortalama mr olacaktr.3435205020001950100TRKYEDE NFUSUN GELMN = 122,988/(1 + 31,56652297 x exp( -0,03649257317 x (X-1900)))Fit hatas % 1,0milyonY l l a r822014+++++Trkiyenin Nfus geliimine gelince;DE tarafndan yaynlanan 1960-2000 yllar arasndaki lojistik bir eri (S-Curve) bize 2103 iin 81,4 milyon deerini veriyor.3536205020001950100TRKYEDE NFUSUN GELM (TUIK)milyonY l l a r+TUIK tarafndan verilen dzeltilmi deerler ise 1980 den itibaren farkllk gsteriyor.3637205020001950100TRKYEDE NFUSUN GELMmilyonY l l a rTUIKDIErnein 2014 yl nfusu eski DE deerleri temelinde hesaplandnda 82,4 milyon, yeni TUIK verilerine gre 77,3 milyondur. Arada 5,1 milyonluk fark var. Semen saysnda da 3,6 milyon fark demektir. Bu farkn geriye doru eritilerek dzeltilmesi gerektiini savunuyor TUIK yetkilileri.3738%Ortalama Yaam Sresi ( y )4010018 YA ZER SEMEN SAYISININ NFUSA ORANIYIL+++608060908070Bu grafikte 18 ya zeri Semen saysnn Nfusa oran (S%) Ortalama yaam sresinin bir fonksiyonu olarak veriliyor. Ortalama yaam sresinin ~68 yl olmas beklenen 2015 te, ~ 55 milyon olur. Eski DE verilerine gre hesapladmzda ~ 59 milyon buluyoruz. Arada kabaca 4 milyonluk bir fark var. zetle unu syleyebiliriz. Ortalama yaam sresini veya Ya dalmn biliyorsak Semen/Nfus orantsn bulabiliriz. Nfus da biliniyorsa, buradan semen saysn hesaplamak kolaydr.. 3839YlOrtalamaYaamSresi SemenOrants%

Nfus(milyon)Semen(milyon)200763,168,370,648,2201165,569,674,752,039BR SKANDAL YSK SEMEN SAYISI

2002 : 41,4 milyon (semen ya 20 ! ) 41,4* FARK 1,4 milyon 5,4 milyon dlm ! 2007 : 42,8 milyon (semen ya 18 ! ) 48,2* FARK 9,7 milyon 5,9 milyon eklenmi ! 2011 : 52,5 milyon 52,0*

* TUIK verilerinden hesaplanan semen says (milyon) 2007 ylnda YSK semen saysn 42,8 milyon olarak ilan etti ve sonular bu semen says zerinden verdi. Oysa TUIK in verilerinden grdmz kadaryla semen says en az 48,4 milyondu. 2002-2007 arasnda ~ 7 milyonluk bir fark olmas gerekirken YSK 1,4 milyonluk bir art yapt; 5,6 milyon semen kaytlardan buharlam grnd. 2001 seiminde ise ~10 milyonluk bir artla semen says 52,5 milyon olarak verildi. Bu sefer de 5,9 milyon semenin kaytlara (semen ktklerine) girdii anlald. (fark 300 bin ?!) Sonuta bir dzeltmeden bahsedilse de kafa kartrc bu ilemler hakl maniplasyon sylentilerine yol at. 4041YSK tarafndan 2007de 5,4 milyon semen kaytlardan dlm,

2011de 5,9 milyon semen kaytlara yeniden alnm grnyor.

Fark +0,5 milyon !?DEMOKRASMZ EYTAN GENNDE

Deerli arkadalar buraya kadar arlkl olarak demografik durumdan, Nfus ve Semen saysndaki tutarszlklarlardan bahsettik. TUIK ve YSK gibi nemli kurumlarn verdikleri rakamlarn gvenirlii maalesef tartmal hale gelmitir. Zaten kr-topal yryen bir Demokrasi uygulamasnn Devlet kurumlarnn ciddiyetle badamayan verileri nedeniyle glgelenmesi yannda zgr semen iradesinin gereklemesini engelleyen arpk mantkl 12 Eyll rn seim yasasndan kaynaklanan adaletsiz temsil kskacn eytan geni olarak betimlemek istedim. 4217 ubat 2011 Perembe 12:05

% 10 BARAJ+ 1 L KONTENJANI D HONDT YNTEMEit ve zgr olarak kullandmz sandmz oylarmz ynden kst altna sokulmutur.1- %10 lke Baraj2-Her ile nfustan bamsz, otomatik +1 milletvekili tahsisi3-Oylarn saymnda dHondt Yntemi

Bunlar ksaca gzden geirelim;43

Rusya............................................ % 7

Almanya, Belika, Macaristan, Polonya, Slovakya........................ % 5

Avusturya, Bulgaristan, talya, Norve, Slovenya, sve................ % 4

spanya,Yunanistan, Romanya, Ukrayna.. % 3

Danimarka................................... % 2 Hollanda, Finlandiya, rlanda, zlanda ---

BARAJ PROBLEM

Avrupa lkelerinde % 10 baraj uygulayan bir lke yok. Nfusu 140 milyon olan Rusyada bile lke baraj %7 olarak belirlenmi. Nfusu yaklak Trkiye Nfusu kadar olan Almanyada Baraj %5 tir. lkelerin nfuslar kldke baraj orannn da kldn gryoruz. Nfusu 10 milyon altndaki lkelerde baraj hemen tamamen kaldrlm durumdadr. Komumuz Yunanistanda %3 Demokrasi rnei diyebileceimiz svete %4 uygulanmaktadr. Herhalde Trkiye iin en uygunu % 5 tir.44 MULA..........850 BN 6 MV 110 ORDU........... 740 BN 6 MV

AFYON..704 BN 5 MV 130 KTAHYA.573 BN 5 MV

ELAZI..........563 BN 4 MV 150 MU...............413 BN 4 MV

EDRNE........ 400 BN 3 MV 137 BNGL ........263 BN 3 MV

KARAMAN......235 BN 2 MV 150 TUNCEL..........85 BN 2 MVBASAMAK PROBLEMOylarmzn eit temsili nndeki bir baka engel Milletvekili kontenjannn belirlenmesinde bavurulan basamak sisteminin dourduu adaletsizliktir. Bu tabloda 2, 3, 4, 5, ve 6 milletvekili kontenjan snrlarndaki iller ve nfuslar gsteriliyor. (Semen says nfusa orantl) rnein Elaz 563 binlik nfusu ile 4 mv. Basamana alnm. Ayn basaman en altndaki Mutan tam 150 fazla olmasna ramen her iki ilden de 4 er Milletvekili seiliyor. Bir baka ifade ile Elazn 150 binlik fazlas (~100 bin semen fazlas) hibir fark getirmiyor. te yandan nfusu Elazdan sadece 10 bin fazla olan Ktahya 5 milletvekili karyor.452 MV5 MV4 MV3 MVNFUS SIRALAMASIYLA LLERBAYBURTKARAMANBNGLEDRNEBASAMAK PROBLEMMUBu adaletsizlik bir milletvekili iin gerekli oy says aralnda illerin nfuslarna gre basamaklara ayrlmas ve bylece her ilin milletvekili kontenjann belirlemek usulnden kaynaklanyor. 46NFUS SIRALAMASIYLA LLERBAYBURTKARAMANBNGLEDRNEBASAMAK PROBLEMMU( x100 bin)x 70 vilayet 3,5 milyon oy Basamak snrlar arasnda kalan fazlalk oylar sandklara atlm olsa da aslnda lin temsili asndan etkin bir deer tamyor. Trkiye genelinde basamak kurban diyebileceimiz oy says yaklak 3,5 milyondur.47

Siirt, Nevehir, Krkkale, Bolu, Hakkari, Bingl, Burdur, Karaman, Krehir, Karabk, Erzincan, Yalova, Bilecik, Sinop, Bartn, ankr, Kars, Idr, Artvin, Gmhane, Kilis, Ardahan, Tunceli Bayburt A N K A R A 32 MLLETVEKL 55 MLLETVEKL5 milyon5 milyon31+131+24 + 1 KONTENJAN PROBLEMBasamak probleminden daha byk hakszlk kayna ise Her ile otomatik +1 Milletvekili tahsisidir. Aslna baklrsa illere nfuslarna ve seimdeki katlm oranlarna baklmakszn peinen bir milletvekili tahsis edilii l leri Eyalet olarak grmek mantndan baka bir ey deil. +1 Milletvekili kontenjan uygulamasndan en byk hakszla urayanlar 3 byk kentte stanbul, Ankara ve zmirde oturan yurttalarmzdr.484981 VLAYETN HER BRNE PENEN 1 KONTENJAN MLLETVEKL VERLDKTEN SONRA GER KALAN NFUSA ORANTILI DAITILIYOR.

rn. Nfusu 5 milyon Ankaraya 5/75 x 469 = 31 Milletvekili dyor. Sonuta Ankara 32 Milletvekili alrken, Nfuslar toplam 5 milyon olan 24 vilayet 55 Milletvekili karyor.Bu durumda Ankaradaki semenlerin 23/55 (%42) kadarnn Oylar, (yaklak 1,4 milyon oy) sandkta boa giden oylardr. + 1 KONTENJAN PROBLEMBunu Ankara rneinde aklamak istiyorum; 81 vilayetin her birine peinen 1 kontenjan milletvekili verildikten sonra geri kalan 469 milletvekili nfusa orantl datlyor. Nfusu 5 milyon olan Ankaraya 5/75 x 469 = 31 Milletvekili dyor. Sonuta Ankara 32 Milletvekili alrken, Nfuslar toplam 5 milyon olan 24 kk il 55 Milletvekili karyor. Bu durumda Ankaradaki semenlerin 23/55 (%42) kadarnn Oylar, (yaklak 1,4 milyon oy) sandkta boa giden oylardr.

4950Ankara, stanbul ve zmirde toplam 5,5 milyon Oy +1 Vilayet Kontenjan dzenlemesinin kurban ! + 1 KONTENJAN PROBLEMBasamak yntemi ve +1 kontenjan uygulamasndan kaynaklanan,grntde sanda giren ama sonuca eit yansmayan, etkili olmayan yaklak 9 milyon oy (%16) Eitsizlik Kurban oylardr.Bylece Ankara, stanbul ve zmirde toplam 5,5 milyon Oy +1 Vilayet Kontenjan dzenlemesinin kurban oluyor! Basamaklardan kaybedilen oylarla birlikte yaklak 9 milyon oy, ki Tm semenlerin 6 da 1 i demektir, Eitsizlik Kurban oylardr. Ankarada katlmn %80 Muta %60 olduunu dnelim.Bu durumda Ankarada 1 milletvekili 87500 oyla seilirken, Muta 43365 semen 1 Milletvekili semi olacak. Bir baka ifade ile, Ankarada ki bir semen Mutaki bir semenin yar deerindedir. Peki nerede kald Demokraside eitlik ilkesi??

50

Victor d'Hondt 1841-1901 ArjantinAvusturyaBelikaBulgaristanekyaDou TimorEkvadorFinlandiyaGallerHrvatistanHollandaskoyasrailzlandaJaponyaKolombiyaMacaristanMakedonyaParaguayPolonyaPortekizRomanyaSrbistanSlovenyailiTrkiyeBir seimde Partilerin aldklar Oy saysna gremilletvekili saysn belirleyen Yntem. Birinci konumdaki partiyidierlerine gre avantajl konuma tayan ve Temsilde adalet salamayan bu yntem, Ynetimde istikrarlkesini n planda tutan 27 lkede uygulanmaktadr.3 - dHONDT YNTEM eytan geni dediim kstlarn sonuncusu dHondt saym yntemidir. Bir seimde Partilerin aldklar Oy saysna gre milletvekili saysn belirleyen bir Yntem. Birinci konumdaki partiyi dierlerine gre avantajl konuma tayan ve Temsilde adalet ten ok, Ynetimde istikrar lkesini n planda tutan bu sistem bugn 27 lkede uygulanmaktadr. Ancak geen yzyl Belikal matematiki ve hukuku Victor dHondt (1841-1901) tarafndan nerilen bu sistem ayrca baraj ve her ile +1 Milletvekili kurallarn ngrmemiti.

51 rnek : 1000 GEERL OYDA 10 MLLETVEKLNN DHONDT YNTEMYLE BLM

/1 /2 /3 /4 /5 ______________________________________________________ A : 400 400,01 200,03 133,36 100,09 80,010 B : 300 300,02 150,05 100,08 75,0 60,0 C : 150 150,04 75,0 50,0 37,5 30,0 D : 100 100,07 50,0 33,3 25,0 20,0

Dier : 50 baraj altndaki partiler______________________________________________________ A 5 MV % 50 B 3 MV % 30 C 1 MV % 10 D 1 MV % 10 DHondt ynteminde birinci konumdaki partinin

kazan faktr en az % 15 tir ! 3- dHONDT YNTEM Bu tabloda bir seim blgesinde kullanlan oylarn dHondt saym teknii ile deerlendirilmesine bir rnek gsteriliyor. Alnan oylar 1,2,3, ile blndkten sonra blmler ierisinde en byk saydan ke doru o blgeden kacak MV saysna kadar iaretleniyor; bylece Partilerin karacaklar MV saylar belli oluyor. Bu rnekte %40 oy alan A Partisinin sonuta Milletvekillerinin yarsn kardn gryoruz. Yani %25 bonus kazanm oluyor birinci konumdaki parti. lke genelinde ortalama %15 tir birinci konumdaki Partinin kazan faktr. 52PARTLER OY SAYISI % MLLETVEKL milyon ____________________________________________

AKP 21,47 % 41,3 326 MV* % 60 CHP 11,15 % 21,4 135 MV MHP 5,58 % 10,7 53 MV

BDP 2,60 % 5,0 36 MV % 6 DER 2,11 % 4,1 GEERSZ 0,94 % 1,8 KATILMAYAN 8,15 % 15,7 ____________________________________________ T O P L A M 52,00 % 100,0 550 MV

2011 GENEL SEM SONUCU (katlm % 84 !)% 34* nedeniyle toplamda AKP 50 MV fazladan ald. te bu eytan geni dediim kstlar arasnda geen 2011 seim sonular tabloda gsteriliyor. Katlmn %84 gibi rekor dzeyde olduu bu seimde lke genelinde oylar %41,3 olan AKP, geerli oylarn %50 sini alm oldu ve Meclisteki sandalyelerin %60 na sahip oldu . Kazan faktr %205354

2011 Genel Seim Sonucu2011 seiminde Partilerin kazandklar seim blgelerini ileler baznda dzenlediimizde AKP nin hemen btn Trkiyeyi kapsadn gryoruz. Yaklak bin kadar ilenin Gneydouda bulunan 50 sinde BDP, Trakya ve Ege kylarndaki 100 kadar ilede de CHP kazanm; geri kalan blgelerde AKP kazanm durumdadr.54

2015 seimi55 milyon semen ne yapacak ?! 2015 seiminde ne olur, imdiden kesin bir ey sylemek zor. Tahminim katlmn %80 dzeyinde olacadr. BDP yine % 5 civarnda 30 bamsz Milletvekili kazanabilir. AKP nin %40 snr altna ineceini, CHP nin %30 izgisini aacan tahmin ediyorum. MHP %15 i aarsa ve iki parti aralarnda anlaabilirlerse, Ulusal izgide kurulacak CHP+MHP koalisyonu ile AKP iktidarna son verilebilir. Bu seimde Kilit konumdaki Parti MHP dir. nk slami izgide kurulacak bir AKP+MHP koalisyonu da mmkn. 5556Seim baraj % 5' e indirilir. Milletvekili gelirinin fert bana milli gelire eitlenmesi, Partilere devlet yardmnn kaldrlmas ve Milletvekili dokunulmazlnn snrlandrlmas kouluyla!Milletvekili says M= 800 e kartlr. Toplam geerli oylarn % 5inden fazlasn alan Partilerin aldklar oylar ile Bamsz adaylarn aldklar geerlioylarn toplamndan (S), Bir (bamsz) adayn milletvekili seilebilmesi iin gerekli minimum oy belirlenir: B=1+ S/(M+1)Bamszlar belirlendikten sonra, kalan milletvekillikleri iin %5 baraj aan partilerin aldklar oy oranna karlk gelen Milletvekili saylar belirlenir. Baraj zerindeki partilerin aldklar toplam geerli oy saysnn,bamszlar dndaki Milletvekili saysna blm ile bir(parti) Milletvekili iin gerekli oy says (P) bulunur.Blgelerde partilerin aldklar geerli oylar P ile blnerekPartilerin tam sayl blge milletvekilleri belirlenir. Arta kalan kesirlerden Partilerin kontenjan milletvekilleribelirlenir.MLL BAKYEL ORANSAL TEMSL !Adil bir Seim Sistemi iin neri;

MLL BAKYEL ORANSAL TEMSL

Seim baraj % 5' e indirilir. Her ile otomatik +1 Milletvekili Kural kaldrlr.

Milletvekili gelirinin fert bana milli gelire eitlenmesi, Partilere devlet yardmnn kaldrlmas ve Milletvekili dokunulmazlnn snrlandrlmas kouluyla!Milletvekili says M= 800 e kartlr.

llerin Milletvekili aday says Trkiye genelindeki semen saysna orantl olarak (kesirler st tam sayya eit sayda) geici olarak belirlenir. (li temsil edecek gerek MV says, katlm durumuna gre, Seim sonucunda belli olacak. Katlm oranna gre 1 farkl olabilir.)

Toplam geerli oylarn % 5inden fazlasn alan Partilerin aldklar oylar ile Bamsz adaylar aldklar geerli oylarn toplamndan (S), Bir (bamsz) adayn milletvekili seilebilmesi iin gerekli minimum oy belirlenir: B=1+ S/(M+1)

Bamszlar belirlendikten sonra, kalan milletvekillikleri iin %5 baraj aan partilerin aldklar geerli oy oranna karlk gelen Milletvekili saylar belirlenir.

Baraj zerindeki partilerin aldklar toplam geerli oy saysnn,bamszlar dndaki Milletvekili saysna blm ile bir (parti) Milletvekillii iin gerekli oy says (P) bulunur. Blgelerde partilerin aldklar geerli oylar P ile blnerek Partilerin tam sayl blge milletvekilleri belirlenir.

Arta kalan kesirlerden Partilerin kontenjan milletvekilleri belirlenir.

56Matematik bilmeyen toplumlarda adalet yoktur.Teekkrler.

John F. Nash58Ekler59YlOrtalamaYaamSresi SemenOrants%

Nfus(milyon)Semen(milyon)201467,170,577,354,5201567,670,878,255,35960

SEM YASASISESS61

2011 Genel Seiminde AKP nin ald Oy Yzdeleri62

2011 Genel Seiminde CHP nin ald Oy YzdeleriTR.12/563Etnik-Dinsel temeldeArkaik (feodal) ToplumLaik ToplumMilli DevletLaik Cumhuriyet

% 2ZGRLKGVENLK6364Etnik-Dinsel temeldeArkaik (feodal) ToplumLaik ToplumMilli DevletLaik CumhuriyetZGRLKGVENLK6465Buna gre, Krt poplasyon 1927-2000 arasnda yllk ortalama % 3,3 art kaydetmitir; ortalama yaam sresi y 65 yl alndnda kadn bana ortalama ocuk says d 4 demektir..

kadn bana ortalama 4 ocuk ve yllk % 3 artla, Krt nfus 2010 da 17 milyon ( %21 ) 2020 de 23 milyon ( %25 ) 2030 da 31 milyon ( %30 ) olacaktr..

20.10.1927 saymnda Trkiyenin Nfusu 13,65 milyon ve anadili krte/zazaca olanlarn says 1,1 milyon idi.. ( % 8,7 )

2000 ylnda Prof. aban Kuzgun bakanlnda Erciyes, nn, Frat niversitelerinden bir aratrma grubunun bulgusuna gre Krt nfus 12,6 milyon ( % 18,6 )

TRKYE'DE 2003 NFUS DAILIMI ( TOPLAM 70 MLYON ) YAORTALAMA YA29,0ORTALAMA MR58,9(*) Nfus daresi Genel Mdrl 2003 Verileri 90 Ya ve zeri dzeltilmitir*%

=

ORTALAMA MR =ORTALAMA YA =

P %Y A f(y) = an yn

P = 1- f(y+1) / f(y)202320031990, 2003, 2013, 2023 LM OLASILIKLARI19902013Pmin 0,2 x (Y/100)56970

Bediz-zaman Said-i Krdi (Norsi) 1877-1960

Gazi Mustafa Kemal ATATRK 1881-1938 Sheet2

2023 TRKYE 1.41.40456378641.40919437651.4138531461.41850251541.42310595071.42762796241.43203410661.43629098421.44036624131.44422856881.44784770321.45119442551.45424056211.45695898451.45932360921.46130939761.46289235661.46404953771.46475903781.46499999871.46475260751.46399809611.46271874161.46089786621.45851983721.45557006681.45203501261.44790217691.44316010731.43779839651.43180768221.42517964721.41790701921.40998357131.40140412151.39216453281.38226171341.37169361661.36045924071.3485586291.33599287011.32276409741.30887548971.29433127051.27913670871.26329811821.24682285771.22971933151.21199698841.19366632271.17473887361.15522722541.13514500751.11450689431.09332860541.07162690541.04941960391.02672555581.00356466080.97995786390.95592715510.93149556940.90668718690.8815271330.85604157780.83025773670.80420387020.77790928390.75140432820.72472039890.69788993680.67094642750.64392440220.61685943660.58978815190.56274821420.53577833470.50891826970.48220882060.45569183370.42941020060.40340785780.37772978710.35242201520.32753161380.30310669980.27919643530.25585102730.23312172780.21106083410.18972168840.16915867810.14942723560.13058383840.11268600910.09579231530.07996236970.06525683020.05173739950.03946682580.02850890190.0189284660.01079140130.004164636-0.0008838565-0.0042850579-0.0059689046-0.0058642881-0.0038990547-0.0000000058

Sheet10a0=1.4000E-021.00-7.8571E+03-9.0909075E-0371.433.0592149E-031210037.0165008606a1=4.5172484E-052.00a2=5.3193087E-073.00a3=-6.6986721E-084.00a4=4.3544833E-105.00f (x)x6.000.01400007.001.4000.0140461.008.001.4050.0140922.009.001.4090.0141393.0010.001.4140.0141854.0011.001.4190.0142315.0012.001.4230.0142766.0013.001.4280.0143207.0014.001.4320.0143638.0015.001.4360.0144049.0016.001.4400.01444210.0017.001.4440.01447811.0018.001.4480.01451212.0019.001.4510.01454213.0020.001.4540.01457014.0021.001.4570.01459315.0022.001.4590.01461316.0023.001.4610.01462917.0024.001.4630.01464018.0025.001.4640.01464819.0026.001.4650.01465020.0027.001.4650.01464821.0028.001.4650.01464022.0029.001.4640.01462723.0030.001.4630.01460924.0031.001.4610.01458525.0032.001.4590.01455626.0033.001.4560.01452027.0034.001.4520.01447928.0035.001.4480.01443229.0036.001.4430.01437830.0037.001.4380.01431831.0038.001.4320.01425232.0039.001.4250.01417933.0040.001.4180.01410034.0041.001.4100.01401435.0042.001.4010.01392236.0043.001.3920.01382337.0044.001.3820.01371738.0045.001.3720.01360539.0046.001.3600.01348640.0047.001.3490.01336041.0048.001.3360.01322842.0049.001.3230.01308943.0050.001.3090.01294344.0051.001.2940.01279145.0052.001.2790.01263346.0053.001.2630.01246847.0054.001.2470.01229748.0055.001.2300.01212049.0056.001.2120.01193750.0057.001.1940.01174751.0058.001.1750.01155252.0059.001.1550.01135153.0060.001.1350.01114554.0061.001.1150.01093355.0062.001.0930.01071656.0063.001.0720.01049457.0064.001.0490.01026758.0065.001.0270.01003659.0066.001.0040.00980060.0067.000.9800.00955961.0068.000.9560.00931562.0069.000.9310.00906763.0070.000.9070.00881564.0071.000.8820.00856065.0072.000.8560.00830366.0073.000.8300.00804267.0074.000.8040.00777968.0075.000.7780.00751469.0076.000.7510.00724770.0077.000.7250.00697971.0078.000.6980.00670972.0079.000.6710.00643973.0080.000.6440.00616974.0081.000.6170.00589875.0082.000.5900.00562776.0083.000.5630.00535877.0084.000.5360.00508978.0085.000.5090.00482279.0086.000.4820.00455780.0087.000.4560.00429481.0088.000.4290.00403482.0089.000.4030.00377783.0090.000.3780.00352484.0091.000.3520.00327585.0092.000.3280.00303186.0093.000.3030.00279287.0094.000.2790.00255988.0095.000.2560.00233189.0096.000.2330.00211190.0097.000.2110.00189791.0098.000.1900.00169292.0099.000.1690.00149493.00100.000.1490.00130694.00101.000.1310.00112795.00102.000.1130.00095896.00103.000.0960.00080097.00104.000.0800.00065398.00105.000.0650.00051799.00106.000.0520.000395100.00107.000.0390.000285101.00108.000.0290.000189102.00109.000.0190.000108103.00110.000.0110.000042104.000.004-0.000009105.00-0.001-0.000043106.00-0.004-0.000060107.00-0.006-0.000059108.00-0.006-0.000039109.00-0.004-0.000000110.00-0.000111.00112.00113.00114.00115.00116.00117.00118.00119.00120.00

2023 TRKYE ZG GRAFK0.0140.01404563790.01409194380.01413853150.01418502520.01423105950.01427627960.01432034110.01436290980.01440366240.01444228570.0144784770.01451194430.01454240560.01456958980.01459323610.0146130940.01462892360.01464049540.01464759040.014650.01464752610.0146399810.01462718740.01460897870.01458519840.01455570070.01452035010.01447902180.01443160110.0143779840.01431807680.01425179650.01417907020.01409983570.01401404120.01392164530.01382261710.01371693620.01360459240.01348558630.01335992870.0132276410.01308875490.01294331270.01279136710.01263298120.01246822860.01229719330.01211996990.01193666320.01174738870.01155227230.01135145010.01114506890.01093328610.01071626910.0104941960.01026725560.01003564660.00979957860.00955927160.00931495570.00906687190.00881527130.00856041580.00830257740.00804203870.00777909280.00751404330.0072472040.00697889940.00670946430.0064392440.00616859440.00589788150.00562748210.00535778330.00508918270.00482208820.00455691830.0042941020.00403407860.00377729790.00352422020.00327531610.0030310670.00279196440.00255851030.00233121730.00211060830.00189721690.00169158680.00149427240.00130583840.00112686010.00095792320.00079962370.00065256830.0005173740.00039466830.0002850890.00018928470.0001079140.0000416464-0.0000088386-0.0000428506-0.000059689-0.0000586429-0.0000389905-0.0000000001

ORTALAMA YA 37,02ORTALAMA MR 71,43

Sheet3

Sheet2

lm 2003,1990,20230.00016886770.00052617690.0015443420.00051511180.00258386030.00488438030.00087387720.00449964070.00791520140.00124485680.0062897420.01067829330.0016277860.00796793310.01320696310.0020224410.00954596740.01552811010.0024286390.01103392990.01766354920.00284623690.01244051570.01963101290.00327513120.0137732540.02144491980.00371525710.01503869090.02311697490.00416658850.01624253850.0246566430.00462913780.01738979880.02607153010.00510295520.01848486650.02736769590.00558812940.01953161460.02854991410.00608478710.02053346760.02962189660.00659309370.02149346340.03058648990.00711325360.02241430650.03144585260.00764551080.02329841380.03220162040.00819014960.02414795550.03285506370.00874749590.024964890.03340724080.00931791820.02575099640.03385914910.00990182880.02650790260.03421187690.01049968610.02723711220.03446675520.0111119960.02794002820.03462550930.01173931440.02861797660.03469040860.012382250.02927222720.03466441250.01304146680.02990401520.03455130870.01371768750.03051456070.03435583960.01441169750.03110508890.03408381290.01512434920.03167684950.03374219040.01585656620.03223113650.0333391510.01660934920.03276930690.03288412290.01738378170.03329280120.03238778220.01818103680.03380316270.03186201480.01900238480.03430205750.03131984230.01984920170.03479129520.03077531340.02072297860.03527284870.03024336410.02162533280.0357488760.02973965360.02255801940.03622174070.02928038370.02352294560.03669403380.02888211130.02452218580.03716859560.02856156460.02555799950.03764853820.02833547430.02663285070.03813726840.02822042990.02774943150.03863851120.02823277150.02891068720.03915633490.02838852620.03011984670.03969517630.02870339410.03138045610.04025986880.02919279210.03269641860.04085567160.02987195810.03407203930.04148830250.0307561180.03551207820.04216397360.03186072120.03702181170.04288943280.03320174480.03860710380.04367201020.03479607390.04027449030.04451967250.03666196540.0420312780.04544108770.03881960630.04388566190.04644570070.04129178540.04584686480.04754382460.04410470520.04792530440.048746750.047288970.05013279420.05006687770.05088080570.0524827870.05151787920.05492358530.05499067160.05311489270.05946976840.05767413670.05487476250.06458340860.06055362150.05681633210.07034344930.06365287690.05896080560.07684813580.06699967230.06133219340.08422103080.07062669280.0639578650.09261937920.07457269130.06686923870.1022459910.07888398550.0701026450.1133665190.08361642590.07370041560.12633525290.08883802310.07771226460.14163479110.09463250770.08219705390.15993920890.10110424210.08722506520.18221881520.10838513230.09288094670.20992257460.11664457720.09926756190.24531537250.12610416780.10651105210.2921505080.13706006460.11476752550.35715054350.14991829020.12423191240.45375209990.16525277140.13514962490.18390574970.14783162090.20717265310.16267289670.23717028460.18017217370.27764897910.20094313360.22568426180.25500055030.2887291296

202320031990YAP1990, 2003, 2023 LM OLASILIKLARI

HER YA GRAFK1.9322.04663680232.14343938452.22370368462.28867009642.33952458122.37739978042.40337612672.41848295632.4236996212.41995662.40813661162.38907572532.36356447392.33234896522.29613199382.25557415322.2112949482.16387390512.11385168632.06173122.00797871291.95302496211.89726626721.8410656421.78475390621.7286307981.67296608531.61800067791.56394773961.51099381.45929986621.40900253491.36021510451.31302868681.26751331881.22371907481.18167717861.14140111471.10288774091.06611841.03106003150.99766628370.96587862580.93562745960.90683323130.87940754360.85325426790.82827065550.80434845020.7813750.75923436880.73780844850.71697807110.69662412040.67662864370.65687596440.63725379320.61765434030.59797542750.57812160.55800523810.53754766930.51668028040.49534562920.47349855630.45110729720.42815459450.40463880910.38057503280.35599620.33095419940.30552098610.27978969370.2538757460.22791796880.2020797020.17654991180.15154430190.12730642610.10410880.08225401270.06207583890.0439403510.02824703080.01542988130.00595853880.0003393851888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110

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Oran10.0204662.05-0.0472983688-4.72983687870.0141391.413853-0.0032883.0010.001.4142.059081710.017249-0.04-4.165986620.0214342.14-0.0374464987-3.744649870.0141851.418503-0.0032454.0011.001.4191.934862220.017968-0.04-3.507902316230.0222372.22-0.0292154086-2.92154085970.0142311.423106-0.0031785.0012.001.4231.762942730.018598-0.03-2.940368322940.0228872.29-0.0222201028-2.22201028210.0142761.427628-0.0030866.0013.001.4281.567193240.019145-0.02-2.445113314550.0233952.34-0.0161892717-1.6189271730.0143201.432034-0.0029737.0014.001.4321.365263750.019613-0.02-2.008470662160.0237742.38-0.0109263686-1.09263685730.0143631.436291-0.0028378.0015.001.4361.169414260.020007-0.02-1.620015052370.0240342.40-0.0062856702-0.6285670170.0144041.440366-0.0026819.0016.001.4400.987354770.020331-0.0127-1.271656541380.0241852.42-0.0021569988-0.21569987630.0144421.444229-0.00250610.0017.001.4440.823055280.020590-0.0096-0.957022464690.0242372.420.0015443420.15443419640.0144781.447848-0.00231211.0018.001.4480.677585790.020787-0.0067-0.671025863100.0242002.420.00488438030.48843803370.0145121.451194-0.00209912.0019.001.4510.5499262100.020926-0.0041-0.4095579059110.0240812.410.00791520140.7915201390.0145421.454241-0.00186913.0020.001.4540.4377667110.021012-0.0017-0.1692646472120.0238912.390.01067829331.06782933260.0145701.456959-0.00162314.0021.001.4570.3383772120.0210470.00050.052617686130.0236362.360.01320696311.32069630840.0145931.459324-0.00136115.0022.001.4590.2494077130.0210360.00260.2583860277140.0233232.330.01552811011.55281100620.0146131.461309-0.00108316.0023.001.4610.1696882140.0209820.00450.4499640744150.0229612.300.01766354921.7663549240.0146291.462892-0.00079117.0024.001.4630.1001087150.0208880.00630.6289741959160.0225562.260.01963101291.9631012880.0146401.464050-0.00048518.0025.001.4640.0443592160.0207560.00800.7967933085170.0221132.210.02144491982.14449198280.0146481.464759-0.00016519.0026.001.4650.0098397170.0205910.010.9545967388180.0216392.160.02311697492.31169749020.0146501.4650000.00016920.0027.001.4650.00843102180.0203940.011.103392994190.0211392.110.0246566432.46566429760.0146481.4647530.00051521.0028.001.4650.00021104190.0201690.011.2440515737200.0206172.060.02607153012.60715301460.0146401.4639980.00087422.0029.001.4640.00043106200.0199180.011.3773254049210.0200802.010.02736769592.73676958830.0146271.4627190.00124523.0030.001.4630.00075108210.0196440.021.5038690873220.0195301.950.02854991412.85499140850.0146091.4608980.00162824.0031.001.4610.00120110220.0193490.021.6242538467230.0189731.900.02962189662.96218966330.0145851.4585200.00202225.0032.001.459230.0190340.021.7389798837240.0184111.840.03058648993.05864899380.0145561.4555700.00242926.0033.001.456240.0187030.021.848486649250.0178481.780.03144585263.14458525840.0145201.4520350.00284627.0034.001.452250.0183580.021.9531614558260.0172861.730.03220162043.22016203910.0144791.4479020.00327528.0035.001.448260.0179990.022.0533467568270.0167301.670.03285506373.28550637450.0144321.4431600.00371529.0036.001.443270.0176290.022.1493463394280.0161801.620.03340724083.34072407960.0143781.4377980.00416730.0037.001.438280.0172510.022.2414306459290.0156391.560.03385914913.38591490570.0143181.4318080.00462931.0038.001.432290.0168640.022.3298413825300.0151101.510.03421187693.42118768680.0142521.4251800.00510332.0039.001.425300.0164710.022.4147955498310.0145931.460.03446675523.44667552020.0141791.4179070.00558833.0040.001.418310.0160730.022.4964890044320.0140901.410.03462550933.46255092980.0141001.4099840.00608534.0041.001.410320.0156720.032.57509964330.0136021.360.03469040863.46904085950.0140141.4014040.00659335.0042.001.401330.0152680.032.650790262340.0131301.310.03466441253.46644125080.0139221.3921650.00711336.0043.001.392340.0148640.032.7237112163350.0126751.270.03455130873.45513086810.0138231.3822620.00764637.0044.001.382350.0144590.032.7940028231360.0122371.220.03435583963.43558396030.0137171.3716940.00819038.0045.001.372360.0140550.032.8617976594370.0118171.180.03408381293.4083812910.0136051.3604590.00874739.0046.001.360370.0136530.032.9272227245380.0114141.140.03374219043.37421904170.0134861.3485590.00931840.0047.001.349380.0132530.032.9904015196390.0110291.100.0333391513.33391510030.0133601.3359930.00990241.0048.001.336390.0128570.033.0514560668400.0106611.070.03288412293.2884122940.0132281.3227640.01050042.0049.001.323400.0124640.033.1105088866410.0103111.030.03238778223.23877822190.0130891.3088750.01111243.0050.001.309410.0120770.033.1676849541420.0099771.000.03186201483.18620147770.0129431.2943310.01173944.0051.001.294420.0116940.033.2231136456430.0096590.970.03131984233.13198423120.0127911.2791370.01238245.0052.001.279430.0113170.033.2769306878440.0093560.940.03077531343.07753134420.0126331.2632980.01304146.0053.001.263440.0109460.033.329280119450.0090680.910.03024336413.02433641480.0124681.2468230.01371847.0054.001.247450.0105820.033.3803162674460.0087940.880.02973965362.97396536380.0122971.2297190.01441248.0055.001.230460.0102240.033.4302057529470.0085330.850.02928038372.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Sheet2

lm 2003,1990,20230.00016886770.00052617690.0015443420.00051511180.00258386030.00488438030.00087387720.00449964070.00791520140.00124485680.0062897420.01067829330.0016277860.00796793310.01320696310.0020224410.00954596740.01552811010.0024286390.01103392990.01766354920.00284623690.01244051570.01963101290.00327513120.0137732540.02144491980.00371525710.01503869090.02311697490.00416658850.01624253850.0246566430.00462913780.01738979880.02607153010.00510295520.01848486650.02736769590.00558812940.01953161460.02854991410.00608478710.02053346760.02962189660.00659309370.02149346340.03058648990.00711325360.02241430650.03144585260.00764551080.02329841380.03220162040.00819014960.02414795550.03285506370.00874749590.024964890.03340724080.00931791820.02575099640.03385914910.00990182880.02650790260.03421187690.01049968610.02723711220.03446675520.0111119960.02794002820.03462550930.01173931440.02861797660.03469040860.012382250.02927222720.03466441250.01304146680.02990401520.03455130870.01371768750.03051456070.03435583960.01441169750.03110508890.03408381290.01512434920.03167684950.03374219040.01585656620.03223113650.0333391510.01660934920.03276930690.03288412290.01738378170.03329280120.03238778220.01818103680.03380316270.03186201480.01900238480.03430205750.03131984230.01984920170.03479129520.03077531340.02072297860.03527284870.03024336410.02162533280.0357488760.02973965360.02255801940.03622174070.02928038370.02352294560.03669403380.02888211130.02452218580.03716859560.02856156460.02555799950.03764853820.02833547430.02663285070.03813726840.02822042990.02774943150.03863851120.02823277150.02891068720.03915633490.02838852620.03011984670.03969517630.02870339410.03138045610.04025986880.02919279210.03269641860.04085567160.02987195810.03407203930.04148830250.0307561180.03551207820.04216397360.03186072120.03702181170.04288943280.03320174480.03860710380.04367201020.03479607390.04027449030.04451967250.03666196540.0420312780.04544108770.03881960630.04388566190.04644570070.04129178540.04584686480.04754382460.04410470520.04792530440.048746750.047288970.05013279420.05006687770.05088080570.0524827870.05151787920.05492358530.05499067160.05311489270.05946976840.05767413670.05487476250.06458340860.06055362150.05681633210.07034344930.06365287690.05896080560.07684813580.06699967230.06133219340.08422103080.07062669280.0639578650.09261937920.07457269130.06686923870.1022459910.07888398550.0701026450.1133665190.08361642590.07370041560.12633525290.08883802310.07771226460.14163479110.09463250770.08219705390.15993920890.10110424210.08722506520.18221881520.10838513230.09288094670.20992257460.11664457720.09926756190.24531537250.12610416780.10651105210.2921505080.13706006460.11476752550.35715054350.14991829020.12423191240.45375209990.16525277140.13514962490.18390574970.14783162090.20717265310.16267289670.23717028460.18017217370.27764897910.20094313360.22568426180.25500055030.2887291296

202320031990YAP1990, 2003, 2023 LM OLASILIKLARI

HER YA GRAFK1.9322.04663680232.14343938452.22370368462.28867009642.33952458122.37739978042.40337612672.41848295632.4236996212.41995662.40813661162.38907572532.36356447392.33234896522.29613199382.25557415322.2112949482.16387390512.11385168632.06173122.00797871291.95302496211.89726626721.8410656421.78475390621.7286307981.67296608531.61800067791.56394773961.51099381.45929986621.40900253491.36021510451.31302868681.26751331881.22371907481.18167717861.14140111471.10288774091.06611841.03106003150.99766628370.96587862580.93562745960.90683323130.87940754360.85325426790.82827065550.80434845020.7813750.75923436880.73780844850.71697807110.69662412040.67662864370.65687596440.63725379320.61765434030.59797542750.57812160.55800523810.53754766930.51668028040.49534562920.47349855630.45110729720.42815459450.40463880910.38057503280.35599620.33095419940.30552098610.27978969370.2538757460.22791796880.2020797020.17654991180.15154430190.12730642610.10410880.08225401270.06207583890.0439403510.02824703080.01542988130.00595853880.0003393851

7-17 YA21-65 YA66 +1990 TRKYE NFUSUNUN YAA GRE DAILIMI (*)(*) Devlet statistik Enstits 1993 Verileri

Sheet10a0=1.4000E-021.00-7.8571E+03-9.0909075E-0371.433.0592149E-031210037.0165008606a1=4.5172484E-052.00a2=5.3193087E-073.00a3=-6.6986721E-082023 yl4.00a4=4.3544833E-105.002003 yl1990f (x)f(x) %P lmx6.001.6440P = 1-[f(x+)/f(x)]0.0140001.400000-0.00326007.00-0.32598473991.4001.796782 =1xf(x)f (x) %PlmPlm %0.0140461.404564-0.0032971.008.00-0.32968172551.4052.03311700.0193201.93-0.059335819-5.93358189780.0140921.409194-0.0033062.009.00-0.33059807461.4092.1047412YAFT f(X)P lmlm Oran10.0204662.05-0.0472983688-4.72983687870.0141391.413853-0.0032883.0010.00-0.32884387571.4142.059081710.017249-0.04-4.165986620.0214342.14-0.0374464987-3.744649870.0141851.418503-0.0032454.0011.00-0.32452781521.4191.934862220.017968-0.04-3.507902316230.0222372.22-0.0292154086-2.92154085970.0142311.423106-0.0031785.0012.00-0.31775650771.4231.762942730.018598-0.03-2.940368322940.0228872.29-0.0222201028-2.22201028210.0142761.427628-0.0030866.0013.00-0.30863392421.4281.567193240.019145-0.02-2.445113314550.0233952.34-0.0161892717-1.6189271730.0143201.432034-0.0029737.0014.00-0.29726090871.4321.365263750.019613-0.02-2.008470662160.0237742.38-0.0109263686-1.09263685730.0143631.436291-0.0028378.0015.00-0.28373477761.4361.169414260.020007-0.02-1.620015052370.0240342.40-0.0062856702-0.6285670170.0144041.440366-0.0026819.0016.00-0.26814899321.4400.987354770.020331-0.0127-1.271656541380.0241852.42-0.0021569988-0.21569987630.0144421.444229-0.00250610.0017.00-0.25059290381.4440.823055280.020590-0.0096-0.957022464690.0242372.420.0015443420.15443419640.0144781.447848-0.00231211.0018.00-0.2311515431.4480.677585790.020787-0.0067-0.671025863100.0242002.420.00488438030.48843803370.0145121.451194-0.00209912.0019.00-0.20990548151.4510.5499262100.020926-0.0041-0.4095579059110.0240812.410.00791520140.7915201390.0145421.454241-0.00186913.0020.00-0.18693072341.4540.4377667110.021012-0.0017-0.1692646472120.0238912.390.01067829331.06782933260.0145701.456959-0.00162314.0021.00-0.16229864241.4570.3383772120.0210470.00050.052617686130.0236362.360.01320696311.32069630840.0145931.459324-0.00136115.0022.00-0.13607595031.4590.2494077130.0210360.00260.2583860277140.0233232.330.01552811011.55281100620.0146131.461309-0.00108316.0023.00-0.1083246941.4610.1696882140.0209820.00450.4499640744150.0229612.300.01766354921.7663549240.0146291.462892-0.00079117.0024.00-0.07910227381.4630.1001087150.0208880.00630.6289741959160.0225562.260.01963101291.9631012880.0146401.464050-0.00048518.0025.00-0.04846148161.4640.0443592160.0207560.00800.7967933085170.0221132.210.02144491982.14449198280.0146481.464759-0.00016519.0026.00-0.01645055231.4650.0098397170.0205910.010.9545967388180.0216392.160.02311697492.31169749020.0146501.4650000.00016920.0027.000.01688677451.4650.00843102180.0203940.011.103392994190.0211392.110.0246566432.46566429760.0146481.4647530.00051521.0028.000.05151118451.4650.00021104190.0201690.011.2440515737200.0206172.060.02607153012.60715301460.0146401.4639980.00087422.0029.000.08738771551.4640.00043106200.0199180.011.3773254049210.0200802.010.02736769592.73676958830.0146271.4627190.00124523.0030.000.1244856811.4630.00075108210.0196440.021.5038690873220.0195301.950.02854991412.85499140850.0146091.4608980.00162824.0031.000.16277859551.4610.00120110220.0193490.021.6242538467230.0189731.900.02962189662.96218966330.0145851.4585200.00202225.0032.000.20224410161.459230.0190340.021.7389798837240.0184111.840.03058648993.05864899380.0145561.4555700.00242926.0033.000.24286390131.456240.0187030.021.848486649250.0178481.780.03144585263.14458525840.0145201.4520350.00284627.0034.000.28462369321.452250.0183580.021.9531614558260.0172861.730.03220162043.22016203910.0144791.4479020.00327528.0035.000.3275131171.448260.0179990.022.0533467568270.0167301.670.03285506373.28550637450.0144321.4431600.00371529.0036.000.37152570691.443270.0176290.022.1493463394280.0161801.620.03340724083.34072407960.0143781.4377980.00416730.0037.000.41665885391.438280.0172510.022.2414306459290.0156391.560.03385914913.38591490570.0143181.4318080.00462931.0038.000.46291378011.432290.0168640.022.3298413825300.0151101.510.03421187693.42118768680.0142521.4251800.00510332.0039.000.51029552421.425300.0164710.022.4147955498310.0145931.460.03446675523.44667552020.0141791.4179070.00558833.0040.000.55881293991.418310.0160730.022.4964890044320.0140901.410.03462550933.46255092980.0141001.4099840.00608534.0041.000.60847870921.410320.0156720.032.57509964330.0136021.360.03469040863.46904085950.0140141.4014040.00659335.0042.000.65930936991.401330.0152680.032.650790262340.0131301.310.03466441253.46644125080.0139221.3921650.00711336.0043.000.71132535931.392340.0148640.032.7237112163350.0126751.270.03455130873.45513086810.0138231.3822620.00764637.0044.000.76455107631.382350.0144590.032.7940028231360.0122371.220.03435583963.43558396030.0137171.3716940.00819038.0045.000.81901496061.372360.0140550.032.8617976594370.0118171.180.03408381293.4083812910.0136051.3604590.00874739.0046.000.87474959271.360370.0136530.032.9272227245380.0114141.140.03374219043.37421904170.0134861.3485590.00931840.0047.000.93179181551.349380.0132530.032.9904015196390.0110291.100.0333391513.33391510030.0133601.3359930.00990241.0048.000.99018287811.336390.0128570.033.0514560668400.0106611.070.03288412293.2884122940.0132281.3227640.01050042.0049.001.04996860581.323400.0124640.033.1105088866410.0103111.030.03238778223.23877822190.0130891.3088750.01111243.0050.001.11119959621.309410.0120770.033.1676849541420.0099771.000.03186201483.186201477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Sheet10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

2023 1990 2003ZG GRAFK1.41.6441.9321.40456378641.79677818682.04663680231.40919437652.03310791122.14343938451.4138531462.10474221762.22370368461.41850251542.05908195622.28867009641.42310595071.93485560872.33952458121.42762796241.76294216312.37739978041.43203410661.56719398762.40337612671.43629098421.3652597062.41848295631.44036624131.1694070712.4236996211.44422856880.987345842.41995661.44784770320.82305064842.40813661161.45119442550.67758388492.38907572531.45424056210.54991856582.36356447391.45695898450.43776120922.33234896521.45932360920.33837470992.29613199381.46130939760.24940121362.25557415321.46289235660.16968499172.2112949481.46404953770.10009531532.16387390511.46475903780.04434933012.11385168631.46499999870.0098349312.06173121.46475260750.00843363622.00797871291.46399809610.0002081.95302496211.46271874160.0004251.89726626721.46089786620.0007511.8410656421.45851983720.0012031.78475390621.45557006681.7286307981.45203501261.67296608531.44790217691.61800067791.44316010731.56394773961.43779839651.51099381.43180768221.45929986621.42517964721.40900253491.41790701921.36021510451.40998357131.31302868681.40140412151.26751331881.39216453281.22371907481.38226171341.18167717861.37169361661.14140111471.36045924071.10288774091.3485586291.06611841.33599287011.03106003151.32276409740.99766628371.30887548970.96587862581.29433127050.93562745961.27913670870.90683323131.26329811820.87940754361.24682285770.85325426791.22971933150.82827065551.21199698840.80434845021.19366632270.7813751.17473887360.75923436881.15522722540.73780844851.13514500750.71697807111.11450689430.69662412041.09332860540.67662864371.07162690540.65687596441.04941960390.63725379321.02672555580.61765434031.00356466080.59797542750.97995786390.57812160.95592715510.55800523810.93149556940.53754766930.90668718690.51668028040.8815271330.49534562920.85604157780.47349855630.83025773670.45110729720.80420387020.42815459450.77790928390.40463880910.75140432820.38057503280.72472039890.35599620.69788993680.33095419940.67094642750.30552098610.64392440220.27978969370.61685943660.2538757460.58978815190.22791796880.56274821420.2020797020.53577833470.17654991180.50891826970.15154430190.48220882060.12730642610.45569183370.10410880.42941020060.08225401270.40340785780.06207583890.37772978710.0439403510.35242201520.02824703080.32753161380.01542988130.30310669980.00595853880.27919643530.00033938510.25585102730.23312172780.21106083410.18972168840.16915867810.14942723560.13058383840.11268600910.09579231530.07996236970.06525683020.05173739950.03946682580.02850890190.0189284660.01079140130.0041646360.00088385650.00428505790.00596890460.00586428810.0038990547-0.0000000058

37,0271,432023 (79,2 MLYON)2002 (70 MLYON)29,0858,93A = ORTALAMA YA

B= ORTALAMA MRAB1990 (56,5 MLYON)26,1851,44YAORAN (%)TRKYE NFUSUNUN YAA GRE DAILIMI

Sheet3