Past and projected future climate impacts to coral reefs ...Opposite latitudinal gradients in...
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Past and projected future climate impacts to coral reefs in the the United States PAST Coral calcification could decline15% for each unit of Ω arag declined. This number is an estimate from a meta-analysis of 25 studies presented in Chan & Connolly (2013). Small changes in calcification could mean that a reef switches from net accretion to net dissolution because reefs are dynamic ecosystems where rates of CaCO3 production only slightly outpace the loss of CaCO3 due to physical and biological erosion (Glynn, 1997). Numerous local factors determine how acidification affects calcification rates. Changes in aragonite saturation state are projected to be lower in the Caribbean than the Pacific and lower in Guam than other parts of the Pacific. Projected sea level rise (a mean of all of the current generation of climate models (CMIP5)) under RCP8.5 between 2006 and 2100. Frequency of thermal stress events >4 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) between 1982 and 2012. Thermal stress meeting and exceeding 4 DHWs is associated with moderate bleaching. Frequency of thermal stress events >8 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) between 1982 and 2012. Thermal stress meeting and exceeding 8 DHWs is associated with severe bleaching. These data and maps are adapted from this publication: Heron, S. F., Maynard, J. A., & Ruben van Hooidonk, C. (2016). Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985–2012. Scientific Reports, 6. These data and maps are adapted from these publications: van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J., Tamelander, J., Gove, J., Ahmadia, G., Raymundo, L., ... & Planes, S. (2016). Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Scientific Reports, 6. van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Manzello, D., & Planes, S. (2014). Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs. Global Change Biology, 20(1), 103-112. References cited: Chan NCS, Connolly SR (2013) Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biology, 19, 282–290. Glynn PW (1997) Bioerosion and Coral Reef Growth: A Dynamic Balance. In: Life and death of coral reefs (ed Birkeland C), pp. 69–98. Springer. Rate at which temperatures increased between 1982 and 2012; this is the trend in annual temperatures, or the change in temperatures when expressed as annual averages. 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N Flower Garden Banks 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 14.0°S 14.5°S 20 km 100 km 82°W 81°W 20 km 20 km 50 km N 0 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 Annual trend (°C / decade) Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands Florida 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W Difference in years between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the timing of annual severe bleaching. Difference between onset of ASB under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (years) 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N 14.0°S 14.5°S 82°W 81°W 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 >41 Flower Garden Banks CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 20 km 100 km 20 km 20 km Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W Florida 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N 14.0°S 14.5°S 82°W 81°W 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ≥ 12 Number of events ≥ 4 DHW Flower Garden Banks CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 20 km 100 km 20 km 20 km Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands 50 km N 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N Flower Garden Banks 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 14.0°S 14.5°S 20 km 100 km 82°W 81°W 20 km 20 km 50 km N -0.62 -0.60 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48 -0.58 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 Change in aragonite saturation (Ω arag ) 2006 to 2050 under RCP8.5 Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands Florida 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W Projected timing of the onset of annual severe bleaching under RCP8.5. At this point in time, the current generation of climate models suggest that thermal stress severe enough to cause bleaching will occur every year. 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N 14.0°S 14.5°S 82°W 81°W 2025 2035 2055 2075 2045 2065 2085 Onset of ASB under RCP8.5 (year) Flower Garden Banks CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 20 km 100 km 20 km 20 km Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W Florida 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N 14.0°S 14.5°S 82°W 81°W 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ≥ 12 Number of events ≥ 8 DHW Flower Garden Banks CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 20 km 100 km 20 km 20 km Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands 50 km N 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W 0.74 0.78 0.82 0.86 0.76 0.80 0.84 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N Flower Garden Banks 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 14.0°S 14.5°S 20 km 100 km 82°W 81°W 20 km 20 km 50 km N Sea level rise under RCP 8.5 (m) Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands Florida 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W Projected timing of the onset of annual severe bleaching under RCP4.5. 20°N 22°N 24°N 26°N 28°N 14°N 13°N 15°N 145°E 146°E 162°W 178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W 160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W 27°N 25°N 26°N 27°N 67°W 66°W 18.0°N 18.0°N 18.5°N 18.5°N 14.0°S 14.5°S 82°W 81°W 2025 2035 2055 2075 2045 2065 >2085 Onset of ASB under RCP4.5 (year) Flower Garden Banks CNMI and Guam Hawaii American Samoa 200 km 100 km 20 km 100 km 20 km 20 km Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands 170.5°W 20 km 64.5°W 170.0°W 65.0°W The emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are called Representative Concentration Pathways. RCP8.5 reflects ‘business-as-usual’, i.e. that climate policy will have little to no effect on the growth of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere between now and 2100. We are currently tracking above what RCP8.5 suggested would be the CO2 concentration (at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawai‘i) in 2017. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario that assumes emissions outputs will reduce in the coming decades and stabilize later in the century. Greenhouse gas concentrations in 2050 under RCP4.5 represent 1.5 times the reductions in emissions pledged under the recently ratified Paris Agreement. Recent emissions reductions pledges are not enough for RCP4.5 to represent our future; however, these recent pledges may result in great momentum in our efforts to reduce emissions. We can compare RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 to examine the effects of our efforts to reduce emissions on coral reef futures. Note on emissions scenarios: Coral bleaching in American Samoa. Images © XL Catlin Seaview Survey. PROJECTED FUTURE PACIFIC ISLANDS CLIMATE CHANGE COOPERATIVE
Transcript of Past and projected future climate impacts to coral reefs ...Opposite latitudinal gradients in...
Past and projected future climate impacts to coral reefs in the the United States
PAST
Coral calcification could decline15% for each unit of Ωarag declined. This number is an estimate from a meta-analysis of 25 studies presented in Chan & Connolly (2013). Small changes in calcification could mean that a reef switches from net accretion to net dissolution because reefs are dynamic ecosystems where rates of CaCO3 production only slightly outpace the loss of CaCO3 due to physical and biological erosion (Glynn, 1997). Numerous local factors determine how acidification affects calcification rates. Changes in aragonite saturation state are projected to be lower in the Caribbean than the Pacific and lower in Guam than other parts of the Pacific.
Projected sea level rise (a mean of all of the current generation of climate models (CMIP5)) under RCP8.5 between 2006 and 2100.
Frequency of thermal stress events >4 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) between 1982 and 2012. Thermal stress meeting and exceeding 4 DHWs is associated with moderate bleaching.
Frequency of thermal stress events >8 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) between 1982 and 2012. Thermal stress meeting and exceeding 8 DHWs is associated with severe bleaching.
These data and maps are adapted from this publication:
Heron, S. F., Maynard, J. A., & Ruben van Hooidonk, C. (2016). Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985–2012. Scientific Reports, 6.
These data and maps are adapted from these publications:
van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J., Tamelander, J., Gove, J., Ahmadia, G., Raymundo, L., ... & Planes, S. (2016). Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Scientific Reports, 6.van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Manzello, D., & Planes, S. (2014). Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs. Global Change Biology, 20(1), 103-112.
References cited:
Chan NCS, Connolly SR (2013) Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biology, 19, 282–290.Glynn PW (1997) Bioerosion and Coral Reef Growth: A Dynamic Balance. In: Life and death of coral reefs (ed Birkeland C), pp. 69–98. Springer.
Rate at which temperatures increased between 1982 and 2012; this is the trend in annual temperatures, or the change in temperatures when expressed as annual averages.
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
Flower Garden Banks67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
CNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
14.0°S
14.5°S
20 km
100 km
82°W 81°W
20 km
20 km
50 kmN
0 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.350.10 0.20 0.30 0.40
Annual trend (°C/decade)
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
Florida170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
Difference in years between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the timing of annual severe bleaching.
Di�erence between onset of ASB under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (years)
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
14.0°S
14.5°S
82°W 81°W
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 >41
Flower Garden BanksCNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
20 km
100 km 20 km
20 km
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
Florida
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
14.0°S
14.5°S
82°W 81°W
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ≥ 12
Number of events ≥ 4 DHW
Flower Garden BanksCNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
20 km
100 km 20 km
20 km
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
50 kmN
170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
Flower Garden Banks67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
CNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
14.0°S
14.5°S
20 km
100 km
82°W 81°W
20 km
20 km
50 kmN
-0.62 -0.60 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48-0.58 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46
Change in aragonite saturation (Ωarag) 2006 to 2050 under RCP8.5
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
Florida170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
Projected timing of the onset of annual severe bleaching under RCP8.5. At this point in time, the current generation of climate models suggest that thermal stress severe enough to cause bleaching will occur every year.
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
14.0°S
14.5°S
82°W 81°W
2025 2035 2055 20752045 2065 2085
Onset of ASB under RCP8.5 (year)
Flower Garden BanksCNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
20 km
100 km 20 km
20 km
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
Florida
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
14.0°S
14.5°S
82°W 81°W
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ≥ 12
Number of events ≥ 8 DHW
Flower Garden BanksCNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
20 km
100 km 20 km
20 km
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
50 kmN
170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
0.74 0.78 0.82 0.860.76 0.80 0.84
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
Flower Garden Banks67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
CNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
14.0°S
14.5°S
20 km
100 km
82°W 81°W
20 km
20 km
50 kmN
Sea level rise under RCP8.5 (m)
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
Florida170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
Projected timing of the onset of annual severe bleaching under RCP4.5.
20°N
22°N
24°N
26°N
28°N
14°N
13°N
15°N
145°E 146°E 162°W
178°W 174°W 170°W 166°W
160°W 158°W 156°W 94.0°W 93.5°W
27°N
25°N
26°N
27°N
67°W 66°W
18.0°N
18.0°N
18.5°N
18.5°N
14.0°S
14.5°S
82°W 81°W
2025 2035 2055 20752045 2065 >2085
Onset of ASB under RCP4.5 (year)
Flower Garden BanksCNMI andGuam
Hawaii
American Samoa 200 km
100 km
20 km
100 km 20 km
20 km
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
170.5°W
20 km
64.5°W170.0°W 65.0°W
The emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are called Representative Concentration Pathways. RCP8.5 reflects ‘business-as-usual’, i.e. that climate policy will have little to no effect on the growth of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere between now and 2100. We are currently tracking above what
RCP8.5 suggested would be the CO2 concentration (at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawai‘i) in 2017. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario that assumes emissions outputs will reduce in the coming decades and stabilize later in the century. Greenhouse gas concentrations in 2050 under RCP4.5 represent 1.5 times the reductions in emissions pledged
under the recently ratified Paris Agreement. Recent emissions reductions pledges are not enough for RCP4.5 to represent our future; however, these recent pledges may result in great momentum in our efforts to reduce emissions. We can compare RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 to examine the effects of our efforts to reduce emissions on coral reef futures.
Note on emissions scenarios:
Coral bleaching in American Samoa. Images © XL Catlin Seaview Survey.
PROJECTED FUTUREPACIFIC ISLANDS CLIMATE CHANGE COOPERATIVE
