Demand Characteristics

Annual Ridership

Route Route Description 2013 2012 Δ % Change

10 CU-Commons 479,132 440,588 38,544 8.0%

81 CU Weekday 567,562 548,821 18,741 3.3%

82 CU Weekday 404,614 394,393 10,221 2.5%

83 CU Weekday 55,241 51,894 3,347 6.1%

90 Commons-CU Night 56,871 44,631 12,240 21.5%

92 CU Night 129,039 116,019 13,020 10.1%

93 CU Night 58,108 46,258 11,850 20.4%

Academic Year's Monthly Ridership (2013)

Route Route Description January* February March April

10 CU-Commons 34,738 49,331 44,145 51,581

81 CU Weekday 45,381 66,607 55,991 68,929

82 CU Weekday 31,760 48,171 40,792 42,499

83 CU Weekday 4,215 8,193 6,399 8,336

90 Commons-CU Night 2,569 5,541 6,073 7,924

92 CU Night 8,351 16,811 15,777 18,847

93 CU Night 3,513 6,360 6,029 7,048

Academic Year's Daily Ridership (2013), Weekday Only

Route Route Description Average Daily Peak AM Ridership Peak PM Ridership

10 CU-Commons 2,117

81 CU Weekday 2,517

82 CU Weekday 1,844

83 CU Weekday 290

90 Commons-CU Night 235

92 CU Night 379

93 CU Night 194

Cornell Enrollments, and Faculty & Staff stats

Year Undergrads Grads Total Enrollment Staff

2011-2012 14,158 6,964 21,424 8,081

2012-2013 14,393 5,023 21,593 8,103

2013-2014* 21,712

* = Projected

Undergrad Grad Faculty Staff

15% 38%

Assigned 0.5 weight to *

May* August* September October November December* AVERAGE

35,587 32,556 50,869 53,344 44,344 30,531 45,040

52,080 30,465 52,721 58,761 51,811 34,601 54,510

25,814 25,304 40,689 46,088 40,165 26,774 39,154

2,392 1,222 5,710 7,771 6,653 4,350 6,144

5,061 2,962 6,487 7,223 6,836 4,037 5,925

8,905 4,524 15,591 14,763 15,563 9,907 14,149

5,133 3,801 6,407 6,501 6,091 3,865 5,824

Percent Using TCAT

14%

Faculty Total Staff-Faculty

1,564 9,645

1,628 9,731

9,818

Assigned 0.5 weight to *

For each route: 1. The stops' locations 2. The distance between any two stops 3. The passenger counts after stop j but before stop j+1 4. (etc?) for instance, this morning, I observed 26 passengers on the bus from Balch to Goldwin Smith. Assume the distance is .3 mile. And the bus capacity is 60 passengers. The 'point' load factor is 26/60 (the distance has nothing to do with the point LF, but it is important for the space-average LF) We will calculate 1. Peak LF 2. Point LF (don't have to be complete) 3. Space-average LF Also we may want to calculate (or ask for): 1. Seat utilization 2. Average Trip Length

for instance, this morning, I observed 26 passengers on the bus from Balch to Goldwin Smith. Assume the distance is .3 mile. And the bus capacity is 60 passengers. The 'point' load factor is 26/60

average LF)

We need to ask TCAT what their on-time criteria are. Some criteria we may consider for now: 1. The adherence to arrival and departure time for each timepoint 2. Average schedule deviation (minutes?) 3. Actual speed vs. scheduled speed (For the scheduled speed, we need to approximate the route length and how long the entire route takes.. For the actual, the data is in the document in dropbox) etc.

Need to ask TCAT for these...

Cost & Benefit Analysis

3%

Mileage

Series Model

Dimension &

Weight Bus No.

Capacity

(Seats +

Standees) Initial Cost

Miles

Traveled

NABI 60 LFW

60-102-116

42,800 lbs 1 93 791,731.30$

New Flyer DE60LF61-102-132

42,700 lbs1 115 Not Stated

NABI 60 BRT60-102-137

47,200 lbs 92 Not Stated

New Flyer DE60LF-BRT61-102-136

43,700 lbs 1 106 950,077.56$

Van Hool AG200360.5-102-13

38,720 lbs 1 106 Not Stated

Conventional

Articulated

Stylized

Articulated

Fuel and Propulsion

Gallons of

Fuel Used

Fuel Cost per

Mile (Diesel)

Fuel Cost per

Mile (Hybrid)

Miles per Gallon

(non-Hybrid)*

Miles per Gallon

(Hybrid)*

Diesel, CNG or Diesel-

Hybrid 0.78 0.61

Diesel, Diesel-

Hybrid, or Gasoline

Hybrid 0.78 0.61 3.8 5.1

Diesel, Diesel-

Hybrid, CNG, LNG 0.78 0.61

Diesel, Diesel-

Hybrid, or Gasoline

Hybrid 0.78 0.61 3.8 5.1

ULSD 0.78 0.61

*Actual Fuel Economy (during 6-month evaluation period) 2.55 mpg for Diesel model, and 3.21 mpg for Hybrid model.

Fuel

Labor

Hours

Cost of

Parts

Total Maintenance Cost

per Mile (Diesel)

Total Maintenance Cost

per Mile (Hybrid)

Parts Cost Per

Mile (Diesel)

Parts Cost Per

Mile (Hybrid)

0.46 0.47 0.06 0.08

0.46 0.47 0.06 0.08

0.46 0.47 0.06 0.08

0.46 0.47 0.06 0.08

0.46 0.47 0.06 0.08

*Actual Fuel Economy (during 6-month evaluation period) 2.55 mpg for Diesel model, and 3.21 mpg for Hybrid model.

Maintenance

Total Operating

Cost (Diesel)

Total Operating

Cost (Hybrid)

Minor Road

Calls

Major Road

Calls

Rd. Calls/1K

Mi.

1.25 1.07

1.25 1.07

1.25 1.07

1.25 1.07

1.25 1.07

Road CallsTotal Operating Cost

Economic Implications• Day-by-Day Farebox Information • Revenue Miles and Revenue Hours• TCAT’s Cost Allocation for Cornell routes/ Cornell’s Subsidy

Economic Implications Day Farebox Information

• Revenue Miles and Revenue Hours • TCAT’s Cost Allocation for Cornell routes/ Cornell’s Subsidy

2010 2011 2012

Ridership 3,351,817 3,944,620 4,128,242

Rev. Miles 1,712,994 1,712,601 1,571,258

Rev. Hours 125,414 127,391 120,098

Wages & Benefits 4,873,504$ 5,119,348$ 5,107,894

…as percentage of total direct cost 70.0% 68.7% 68.4%

Direct Cost per Hour 38.86$ 40.19$ 42.53$

Fuel, Fluids, Maintenance, Repairs 2,084,769$ 2,333,847$ 2,359,270

…as percentage of total direct cost 30.0% 31.3% 31.6%

Direct Cost per Mile 1.22$ 1.36$ 1.50$

Direct Cost 6,958,273$ 7,453,195$ 7,467,164$

Revenue 6,308,025$ 6,769,835$ 6,935,659$

Total Op. Subsidy 13,266,298$ 14,223,030$ 14,402,823$

Op. Subsidy per Ri 3.96$ 3.61$ 3.49$

Total Cost 12,178,431$ 12,860,549$ 12,877,045$

Revenues ("Other Revenues," Gadabout) 199,240$ 204,181$ 172,721$

Net Total Cost 11,979,191$ 12,656,368$ 12,704,324$

Avg. Cost per Hour 95.52$ 99.35$ 105.78$

Avg. Cost per Rider 3.57$ 3.21$ 3.08$

Overhead 5,020,918$ 5,203,173$ 5,237,160$

Piecemeal Cost per Hour 66.88$ 68.25$ 72.4892$

Piecemeal Cost per Mile 2.10$ 2.31$ 2.5448$

Total Farebox 3,768,573$ 3,990,569$ 4,179,553$

Avg. Farebox per Rider 1.12$ 1.01$ 1.01$

Route January # Weekdays Daily Avg Route August # Weekdays Daily Avg

10 34738 22 1579 10 32556 22 1480

81 45381 22 2063 81 30465 22 1385

82 31760 22 1444 82 25304 22 1150

83 4215 22 192 83 1222 22 56

90 2141 22 97 90 2398 22 109

92 4815 22 219 92 2693 22 122

93 2597 22 118 93 2887 22 131

Route February # Weekdays Daily Avg Route September # Weekdays Daily Avg

10 49331 20 2467 10 50869 21 2422

81 66607 20 3330 81 52721 21 2511

82 48171 20 2409 82 40689 21 1938

83 8193 20 410 83 5710 21 272

90 4796 20 240 90 5185 21 247

92 9500 20 475 92 7980 21 380

93 4522 20 226 93 3922 21 187

Route March # Weekdays Daily Avg Route October # Weekdays Daily Avg

10 44145 21 2102 10 53344 23 2319

81 55991 21 2666 81 58761 23 2555

82 40792 21 1942 82 46088 23 2004

83 6399 21 305 83 7771 23 338

90 5148 21 245 90 6212 23 270

92 9014 21 429 92 9072 23 394

93 4243 21 202 93 4871 23 212

Route April # Weekdays Daily Avg Route November # Weekdays Daily Avg

10 51581 22 2345 10 44344 20 2217

81 68929 22 3133 81 51811 20 2591

82 42499 22 1932 82 40165 20 2008

83 8336 22 379 83 6653 20 333

90 6864 22 312 90 5563 20 278

92 11346 22 516 92 8144 20 407

93 5122 22 233 93 4225 20 211

Route May # Weekdays Daily Avg Route December # Weekdays Daily Avg

10 35587 22 1618 10 30531 21 1454

81 35471 22 1612 81 34601 21 1648

82 25814 22 1173 82 26774 21 1275

83 2392 22 109 83 4350 21 207

90 4514 22 205 90 3424 21 163

92 5264 22 239 92 5857 21 279

93 3924 22 178 93 2819 21 134

Route Jan* Feb Mar Apr May* Aug*

10 1579 2467 2102 2345 1618 1480

81 2063 3330 2666 3133 1612 1385

82 1444 2409 1942 1932 1173 1150

83 192 410 305 379 109 56

90 97 240 245 312 205 109

92 219 475 429 516 239 122

93 118 226 202 233 178 131

Sep Oct Nov Dec* Avg

2422 2319 2217 1454 2117

2511 2555 2591 1648 2517

1938 2004 2008 1275 1844

272 338 333 207 290

247 270 278 163 235

380 394 407 279 379

187 212 211 134 194

Double Exponential Smoothing

Year Total Enrollment Predicted Updated E Updated T Error^2

1999 19,021 19,021 -

2000 18,995 19,021 19,021 - 676

2001 19,420 19,021 18,995 (26) 159,201

2002 19,575 18,969 19,420 425 367,236

2003 19,620 19,845 19,575 155 50,625

2004 19,518 19,730 19,620 45 44,944

2005 19,447 19,665 19,518 (102) 47,524

2006 19,639 19,416 19,447 (71) 49,729

2007 19,800 19,376 19,639 192 179,776

2008 20,273 19,831 19,800 161 195,364

2009 20,633 19,961 20,273 473 451,584

2010 20,939 20,746 20,633 360 37,249

2011 21,131 20,993 20,939 306 19,044

2012 21,424 21,245 21,131 192 32,041

2013 21,593 21,323 21,424 293 72,900

MSE 121,992

2010

2011

2012

2013

Weight

alpha

beta

18,500

19,000

19,500

20,000

20,500

21,000

21,500

22,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Axi

s Ti

tle

Axis Title

Chart Title

3-Period Moving Average

Weight Constraint Year Total Enrollment 3-Period Avg Prediction

alpha 1.00 1 1999 19,021

beta 1.00 1 2000 18,995

2001 19,420 19,145

2002 19,575 19,330 19,145

2003 19,620 19,538 19,330

2004 19,518 19,571 19,538

2005 19,447 19,528 19,571

2006 19,639 19,535 19,528

2007 19,800 19,629 19,535

2008 20,273 19,904 19,629

2009 20,633 20,235 19,904

2010 20,939 20,615 20,235

2011 21,131 20,901 20,615

2012 21,424 21,165 20,901

2013 21,593 21,383 21,165

MSE

2-period WMA

Year Total Enrollment WMA Prediction

1999 19,021

2000 18,995 18,995

2001 19,420 19,420 18,995

2002 19,575 19,575 19,420

2003 19,620 19,620 19,575

2004 19,518 19,518 19,620

2005 19,447 19,447 19,518

2006 19,639 19,639 19,447

2007 19,800 19,800 19,639

2008 20,273 20,273 19,800

2009 20,633 20,633 20,273

2010 20,939 20,939 20,633

2011 21,131 21,131 20,939

2012 21,424 21,424 21,131

2013 21,593 21,593 21,424

MSE

Weight

alpha -

beta 1.00

1.00

2014

Total Enrollment

WMA

Holt's

3MV

Single EXP

Error^2

184,613

84,100

413

15,376

12,247

70,402

415,165

531,441

495,147

266,256

273,529

183,469

211,013

Single Exp Smoothing

Error^2 Year Total Enrollment Delta prediction err^2

1999 19,021

2000 18,995 (26)

180,625 2001 19,420 425 18,976.67 196,539

24,025 2002 19,575 155 19,719.57 20,901

2,025 2003 19,620 45 19,684.26 4,129

10,404 2004 19,518 (102) 19,651.72 17,881

5,041 2005 19,447 (71) 19,446.10 1

36,864 2006 19,639 192 19,396.95 58,586

25,921 2007 19,800 161 19,774.34 659

223,729 2008 20,273 473 19,913.48 129,251

129,600 2009 20,633 360 20,606.41 707

93,636 2010 20,939 306 20,886.75 2,730

36,864 2011 21,131 192 21,154.69 561

85,849 2012 21,424 293 21,266.34 24,858

28,561 2013 21,593 169 21,630.53 1,408

67,934 MSE 35,247

Weight

alpha 0.70

2014 21,712.12