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  • 1

    : &

    2011

  • 2

    : ................................................................................................................. 4

    1. ....................................... 5

    1.1 ....................................................................................................................... 5

    1.2 ................ 6

    1.2.1 UCTE ................................................................................ 8

    1.2.2 To ............................... 10

    1.2.3 .............................. 14

    1.2.4 (ISO-NE) ................... 17

    1.2.4.1 , .

    ....................................................................................................................... 19

    1.2.4.2 ISO-NE .............................. 21

    1.3 ................................... 25

    1.3.1 ............... 26

    1.3.2 ............. 28

    1.3.3 ...................................... 29

    2. .......................... 32

    2.1 .. 32

    2.2

    .......................................................................................................................... 33

    3. ...................................................................... 40

    3.1 (Fuzzy Logic Theory) ...................................... 40

    3.1.1 ................................................................................................... 40

    3.1.2 ....................... 42

    3.1.3 ................................................................ 44

    3.1.4 ................................................................................................. 46

    3.1.5 ........................................................................................ 48

    3.2 H .................................................... 49

    4. ......................... 52

    3.1 - (if-then rules) .................................................................................. 52

    3.2 (Fuzzy Inference Systems FIS)............. 54

    3.2.1 FIS Mamdani .......................................................................................... 55

    3.2.2 FIS Sugeno .............................................................................................. 57

    3.3 - ..................................................................................... 60

    3.3.1 ............................................................................................. 60

  • 3

    3.3.1.1 .................................................................................... 61

    3.3.1.2 ................................................................................... 61

    3.3.1.3 ....................................................................................... 62

    3.4 (Adaptive Networks) ...................................................... 62

    3.5 ...................................... 64

    3.6 ............................................................ 66

    3.6.1 (Linear Node) ..................... 66

    3.6.2 Percepton ................................................................................................ 67

    3.6.3 Percepton .............................................................................. 68

    4. - (Adaptive

    Neuro-Fuzzy Inferences Systems ANFIS) ..................................................................... 69

    4.1 ANFIS ...................................................................................... 69

    4.2 .......................................................................... 72

    4.2.1 ......................................................................... 72

    4.2.2 - ........................................... 75

    4.3 & . 80

    4.4 ANFIS ........................................................................................ 83

    5. ANFIS

    & ............................................................................................... 84

    5.1 ............................................... 84

    5.2 90

    5.3 ......................................... 91

    5.4

    ....................................................................................................... 96

    5.5 ............... 97

    6. ANFIS ............................................................... 100

    6.1

    . ........................................................................................................................ 100

    6.2

    . ......................................................................................... 107

    6.3

    (Day-Ahead Price). ........................................................ 112

    6.4

    (Real-Time Price). ......................................................... 117

    7. ......................................................................................................... 122

    : ........................................................................................................... 123

  • 4

    :

    , . ,

    .

    ,

    ... .

    .

    .

    .

  • 5

    1.

    1.1

    .

    ,

    :

    o

    o

    o

    o

    . , ,

    .

    .

    1: .

    :

  • 6

    1.

    2.

    .

    3.

    , .

    4.

    24.

    5. .

    , 70

    ,

    ,

    .

    1. ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ANFIS .

    .

    1.2

    :

    (Eastern Interconnection) .

    610 GW.

    1 21 .

  • 7

    (Western Interconnection) , - .

    160 GW.

    (National Electricity Market) - . ,

    ,

    .

    NORDEL (, , ), 93 GW

    25 .

    UCTE - 23 , . 603 GW ,

    450 .

    ATSOI / UKTSOA - , . 400

    TWh 65 .

    IPS / UPS - 12 : . 1285 TWh

    280 .

    SEMB - , , , .

    SWMB - , .

    :

    SIEPAC 37 6 .

    2020 AC

    , .

    ,

    UCTE.

    UCTE IPS / UPS , 36 ( ).

  • 8

    (Smart Grid) 2.

    - (SuperSmart Grid) : UCTE, IPS/UPS, .

    (UCTE), .

    1.2.1 UCTE

    UCTE .

    50 Hz

    400 24 . UCTE

    1 2009 European Network of Transmission System Operators for

    Electricity (ENTSO-E),

    .

    : , , & ,

    , , , ( ), , ,

    , , , , , , , ,

    , , , , ,

    ENTSO-E. , ,

    ,

    , AC

    Gibraltar SWMB (South Western Mediterranean

    Block).

    , HVDC3 Cross-

    Channel. , ENTSO-E ( NORDEL)

    , -

    DC .

    ,

    Moyle4. ,

    2 , .

    3 HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current): 4 HVDC .

  • 9

    ENTSO-E (. , ),

    IPS/UPS,

    Estlink5. ,

    .

    2: ENTSO-E .

    ENTSO-E

    . 2003,

    .

    . ,

    . ,

    2007.

    , 50 hertz.

    ,

    .

    5 HVDC .

  • 10

    50

    Hertz .

    ,

    ,

    . ENTSO-

    EDI

    . ebiX6 EFET (European Federation of

    Electricity Traders), ENTSO-

    .

    1.2.2 To

    , 2773/99

    (

    ),

    .

    6 . , .

  • 11

    3: . .

    :

    :

    ,

    .

    , .

    / .

  • 12

    ,

    .

    3 400 kV,

    ,

    , .

    400 kV 150 kV,

    66 kV 150 kV ,

    , , ,

    .

    ( )

    (. 4).

    4:

    .

    (HVDC) 500 MW.

  • 13

    5: . .

    400 kV,

    ... 400 kV.

    150 kV 400 kV.

    4.400 W.

    2008

    400 kV (2000 V).

    6: .

    6

    .

    - - -

    - .

    .

  • 14

    7: .

    2004

    UCTE

    (Union for Coordination of Transmission of Electricity)

    400kV 150kV ,

    .

    :

    .