How did Mongol s ociety develop the largest territiorial empire in the world history with only minor social complexity?

3000 B.C.

2000 B.C.

1000 B.C.

A.D. 1000

A.D. 2000

Andean IS

West Asian

IS

East Asian 1 IS

Euro-W.Asian

IS

Global Modern

Int’l System

Chronological time τ

15th cent. A.D. fusion

16th cent.B.C. expansion

Mesoamerican IS

4000 B.C.

5000 B.C.

6000 B.C.

19th cent. A.D. fusion

0

East Asian 2 IS

Pleogenic model of political origins and evolution

MOTIVATION

THEORY AN D HYPOTHESES

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY EXPECTED PROJECT RESULTS: 2006-09

PROJECT-RELATED PUBLICATIONS

TARGET HISTORICAL SYSTEMS

Smithsonian Institution

Gpolityexists

S situationalchange

politydealing w/issue

post-issue polity

Top-level UML state diagram for the fast canonical process.The referent system is a generic polity, subject tooccasional situational changes (public issue occurrence) in its internal or external environment.

outcomesoccur

Xiongnu in-215

Qin attackfrom S.

Xiongnudefend

post-attackXiongnu

outcomesoccur

High-level diagram for an instance of the fast process: The Xiongnu are attacked by the Chinese. Theydefend themselves and, as a result, the Xiongnu polity—its state— is changed. In this instance the state became

more complex.

Agents

Societies

SocialWorld

InnerAsia

Climate

Enviroment

Landscape

Affects

Affects

Affects

1

1..n

1

1..n

Interact

Computational objects that compose the InnerAsia model

Version September 11, 2006, 11:20 EST

Main scientific puzzles addressed:• How do societies evolve or fail when challenged by threats or opportunities?• How does success or failure in collective action affect social complexity?• How did polities rise and fall in Inner Asia since ca. 3000 BC?

Main gaps in needed scientific knowledge:• Lack of theory: Needed to advance our understanding of long-term societal dynamics• Lack of data: Needed for knowing the history of when, where, and how polities evolved• Lack of models: Needed for developing validated/calibrated agent-based computational models with sufficiently complex and shifting environments

Polities evolve by a process of “canonical variation” (Cioffi-Revilla 2005), whereby a society increases or decreases its political complexity (overall governance capacity) depending on success or failure in meeting collective action challenges (threats or opportunities).

Sociopolitical evolution by canonical variation occurs on two distinct time-scales:• A fast process determines whether a society is successful or not in meeting collective action needs• A slow process determines whether a society develops or declines depending on the cumulative effects of numerous and often parallel fast processes

Inner Asia (red oval) is a region that links the sociopolitically “pristine” regions of East Asia and West Asia after 3000 BC. Source: Cioffi-Revilla (2006).

What Is MASON?Multi-Agent Simulator of Networks and

NeighborhoodsMain features:• Fast and 100% Java• Separable computation - visualization• Guaranteed reproducible results• Free and open-sourcehttp://cs.gmu.edu/∼eclab/projects/mason/

Acknowledgements: Acknowledgements: This project is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, This project is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Human and Social Dynamics Program, grant no. Human and Social Dynamics Program, grant no. 0527471..

1. New scientific concepts, theories, and methods for understanding long-term societal dynamics in complex and shifting environments.

2. New databases on geographic, social, economic, political, military, technological attributes of Inner Asian societies, starting from ca. 3000 BC, including information on their physical environments.

3. New computational models—multi-agent systems or agent-based models—of societal evolution and adaptation, using the MASON system and evolutionary computation (see Research Methodology).

Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio. 2005. A Canonical Theory of Origins and Development of Social Complexity. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 29 (April-June):133–153.Cioffi-Revilla, C., S. Luke, D. C. Parker, J. D. Rogers, W. W. Fitzhugh, W. Honeychurch, B. Frohlich, P. DePriest, and N. Bazarsad. 2006. Agent-based dynamics of social complexity: Modeling Adaptive Behavior and Long-Term Change in Inner Asia. Proceedings of the North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Sciences NAACSOS 2006, June 22-23, Notre Dame, IN, USA.Cioffi-Revilla, C., S. Luke, D. C. Parker, J. D. Rogers, W. W. Fitzhugh, W. Honeychurch, B. Frohlich, P. DePriest, and N. Bazarsad. 2006. Agent-based dynamics of social complexity: Modeling Adaptive Behavior and Long-Term Change in Inner Asia. Proceedings of 20th World Congress of the International Political Science Association IPSA, July 9-12, Fukuoka, Japan.Cioffi-Revilla, C., S. Luke, D. C. Parker, J. D. Rogers, W. W. Fitzhugh, W. Honeychurch, B. Frohlich, P. DePriest, and N. Bazarsad.. 2006. Agent-based dynamics of social complexity: Modeling Adaptive Behavior and Long-Term Change in Inner Asia. Paper presented in the First World Congress of Social Simulation, August 21-25, Kyoto, Japan.Powell, Eric A. 2006. Mysterious Mongolia. Archaeology 59 (1).Rogers, J. Daniel, Erdenebat Ulambayar, and Matthew Gallon. 2004. Urban Centers and State Development in Eastern Inner Asia. Washington, DC: Department of Anthropology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution.

Agent-based Modeling and Simulation of Adaptation and Long-Term Change in Inner Asia (v.0.1)

C. CIOFFI-REVILLA, S. LUKE, D.C. PARKER, M. TSVETOVAT, George Mason UniversityJ.D. ROGERS, W.W. FITZHUGH, W. HONEYCHURCH, B. FROHLICH, P. DePRIEST, Smithsonian NMNH

R. LATIMER, T. Jefferson High School of Science and C. AMARTUVSHIN, Mongolian Academy of SciencesStudent Researchers: G.C. Balan, R. Casstevens, C. Eltrich, J. Harrison, M. Latek, M.M. Rizi, S. Wilcox

Main methods employed by our team:• Interdisciplinary collaboration• Field research at archaeological sites (see red dots on the top right picture)• Archival data collection• GIS, including social and historical• UML for designing models• Agent-based modeling using MASON• Evolutionary computation using ECJ

Why is the fast process called "canonical"?• Because the same common theme in the event sequence G-C-N-U-S re-occurs again and again, throughout history, but with important variations caused by success and failure.How does the fast process with canonical variations "feed into" the slow process?• By a mechanism of "credit assignment", whereby different outcomes of the fast process produce positive and negative externalities for governance capacity

Egroup endures

w/o polity

Xgroup destroyed not

knowing C

Xgroup is destroyed

knowing C

Xgroup escapes or is

destroyed

Apolitical complexity

acrues

Ggroupexists

Csituational change occurs

~ C

Ncollective action need

or opportunity is recognized

Ulocals undertake CA

SCA succeeds

~ S

~ Ulocals don't undertake CA

~ NCA is not recognized

politicaloutcome(sample)

space"back" to the next time a

situational change occurs,C', for a new canonical iteration

that will most probablydiffer in the details (sub-model)

but not in this main theme

"Fast" branching process for political evolution by canonical variation producing diverse outcomes forsociety undergoing challenging situational changes (threats or opportunities)

Informal"canonical" theory

Formal model ofcanonical theory

Agent-based model code(PoliGenModel)

Empirical data files:-archaeological-ethnographic-environmental

testablepredictions

Prehistoric and historic record onemergent social complexity

(explanandum)

implementationformalization

conceptualization

feedback

coding

publish data inwebsites:

• VDC• ICPSR

• LTC• others

Simulation environment(MASON)

Post MASON and ABMmodels as open-source

Formal and empirical components in the canonical theory of emergent social complexity.